Montréal CanadiensMTL 4–2 Final Buffalo SabresBUF

Saturday, January 31, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Montréal CanadiensMTL	1	0	3	4	31
Buffalo SabresBUF	0	2	0	2	38

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
11:20	MTL	Juraj Slafkovský (21)PP Nick Suzuki (45), Cole Caufield (25) · wrist xG 0.14	1–0 ▶
2nd Period
7:36	BUF	Owen Power (4) Tage Thompson (28), Rasmus Dahlin (33) · wrist xG 0.08	1–1 ▶
18:58	BUF	Noah Ostlund (10)PP Alex Tuch (25), Bowen Byram (17) · slap xG 0.22	1–2 ▶
3rd Period
4:14	MTL	Cole Caufield (31) Noah Dobson (24), Lane Hutson (47) · tip-in xG 0.08	2–2 ▶
10:13	MTL	Cole Caufield (32) Nick Suzuki (46), Kirby Dach (4) · snap xG 0.28	3–2 ▶
19:12	MTL	Oliver Kapanen (17)EN Noah Dobson (25) · wrist xG 0.44	4–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

MTL 30%Deserve to win70% BUF

MTL		BUF
4.34	Expected goals	4.28
4	Goals (no shootout)	2
2.48	Expected goals, 5 on 5	3.15
53	Shot attempts	77
42	Unblocked attempts	56
31	Shots on goal	38

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
11:20	MTL	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · MTL takes the lead, 62–38% BUF had led since 3:44 of the 1st, by as much as 67%
2nd Period
9:46	BUF	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · BUF takes the lead, 61–39% MTL had led since 11:20 of the 1st, by as much as 62%
19:00	BUF	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced MTL 1.56–0.19 In xG over 10 minutes, 9:00 to 19:00 of the 2nd; goals 1–0
3rd Period
10:20	MTL	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced BUF 1.29–0.28 In xG over 10 minutes, 0:20 to 10:20 of the 3rd; goals 2–0
16:34	MTL	Goalie	Goalie · Dobes +2.0 goals saved 2 goals on 4.02 xG, 37 shots on goal
18:00	BUF	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Lyon, down 3–2 With 2:00 left; MTL scored at 19:12 of the 3rd (4–2)
19:21	BUF	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Lyon, down 4–2 With 0:39 left

Shot map

MTL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ BUF shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Montréal Canadiens

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
14	Nick Suzuki	0	2	2	+3	5	0.03	0	1	18:52
24	Phillip Danault	0	0	0	0	1	0.38	1	1	18:11
91	Oliver Kapanen	1	0	1	+1	4	0.45	1	2	17:30
20	Juraj Slafkovský	1	0	1	+1	8	0.90	2	0	17:28
93	Ivan Demidov	0	0	0	0	6	0.39	0	0	16:51
71	Jake Evans	0	0	0	-1	1	0.11	0	1	16:31
13	Cole Caufield	2	1	3	+2	6	0.49	3	1	15:39
77	Kirby Dach	0	1	1	+2	2	0.10	2	1	12:29
17	Josh Anderson	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	3	0	12:11
90	Joseph Veleno	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	2	1	10:33
7	Brendan Gallagher	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	5	0	10:18
76	Zachary Bolduc	0	0	0	-1	2	0.08	1	0	10:10
Defense
8	Mike Matheson	0	0	0	-1	3	0.48	0	4	27:31
53	Noah Dobson	0	2	2	+3	6	0.21	2	2	20:34
45	Alexandre Carrier	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	1	1	20:26
48	Lane Hutson	0	1	1	+1	3	0.71	0	1	20:12
21	Kaiden Guhle	0	0	0	+2	1	0.01	3	4	19:29
72	Arber Xhekaj	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	0	07:09

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Jakub Dobes	38	2	36	.947	4.28	+2.28

Buffalo Sabres

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
89	Alex Tuch	0	1	1	0	7	0.46	1	0	22:27
72	Tage Thompson	0	1	1	+1	12	0.38	1	0	22:21
6	Zach Benson	0	0	0	0	3	0.25	1	0	20:43
17	Jason Zucker	0	0	0	-1	6	0.42	2	0	18:40
71	Ryan McLeod	0	0	0	0	2	0.19	0	0	17:36
22	Jack Quinn	0	0	0	-1	7	0.30	0	0	17:28
91	Josh Doan	0	0	0	-1	7	0.89	4	0	17:22
86	Noah Ostlund	1	0	1	-2	4	0.22	0	0	13:16
94	Konsta Helenius	0	0	0	-1	4	0.10	1	0	09:54
19	Peyton Krebs	0	0	0	-1	1	0.05	1	0	09:40
29	Beck Malenstyn	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	3	2	08:48
48	Tyson Kozak	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	06:51
Defense
26	Rasmus Dahlin	0	1	1	0	6	0.21	3	1	26:03
25	Owen Power	1	0	1	0	6	0.46	0	2	24:02
23	Mattias Samuelsson	0	0	0	0	4	0.17	6	0	21:50
24	Bowen Byram	0	1	1	-2	6	0.14	0	1	20:17
73	Zach Metsa	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	10:46
7	Michael Kesselring	0	0	0	-2	1	0.00	0	1	08:53

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Alex Lyon	30	3	27	.900	2.96	-0.04

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Montréal Canadiens

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
53 Noah Dobson D	+2.71	+1.40	+0.13	+1.24	-0.15	0.00	+0.08	—	20:32
13 Cole Caufield R	+2.57	+2.05	+0.32	+0.16	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	15:39
75 Jakub Dobes G	+2.28	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+2.28	59:58
20 Juraj Slafkovský L	+1.92	+0.75	+0.59	+0.56	0.00	+0.02	0.00	—	17:26
14 Nick Suzuki C	+1.83	+1.40	+0.02	+0.17	+0.15	+0.02	+0.07	—	18:52
48 Lane Hutson D	+1.76	+0.55	+0.46	+0.96	-0.30	0.00	+0.09	—	20:10
91 Oliver Kapanen C	+1.60	+0.75	+0.29	+0.43	0.00	+0.04	+0.08	—	17:28
93 Ivan Demidov R	+0.81	0.00	+0.25	+0.56	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	16:49
77 Kirby Dach C	+0.64	+0.55	+0.06	+0.15	-0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	12:29
24 Phillip Danault C	-0.07	0.00	+0.25	-0.58	+0.15	+0.08	+0.03	—	18:13
21 Kaiden Guhle D	-0.22	0.00	+0.01	-0.54	+0.15	0.00	+0.16	—	19:29
17 Josh Anderson R	-0.38	0.00	0.00	-0.38	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	12:11
11 Brendan Gallagher R	-0.38	0.00	0.00	-0.38	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	10:18
71 Jake Evans C	-0.54	0.00	+0.07	-0.70	0.00	+0.07	+0.01	—	16:33
45 Alexandre Carrier D	-0.54	0.00	0.00	-0.58	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	20:28
76 Zachary Bolduc R	-0.61	0.00	+0.05	-0.65	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	10:10
72 Arber Xhekaj D	-0.65	0.00	0.00	-0.65	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	7:09
8 Mike Matheson D	-0.69	0.00	+0.31	-1.19	0.00	0.00	+0.18	—	27:33
90 Joseph Veleno C	-0.70	0.00	0.00	-0.75	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	10:33

Buffalo Sabres

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
26 Rasmus Dahlin D	+1.69	+0.55	+0.14	+1.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	—	26:03
86 Noah Ostlund C	+1.46	+0.75	+0.15	+0.59	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	13:18
25 Owen Power D	+1.32	+0.75	+0.30	+0.17	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	24:00
89 Alex Tuch R	+1.25	+0.70	+0.30	+0.12	+0.15	-0.02	0.00	—	22:29
91 Josh Doan R	+1.16	0.00	+0.58	+0.62	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	17:22
72 Tage Thompson C	+0.84	+0.70	+0.24	+0.12	-0.15	-0.07	0.00	—	22:21
94 Konsta Helenius C	+0.48	0.00	+0.06	+0.44	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	9:54
6 Zach Benson L	+0.41	0.00	+0.16	+0.27	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	20:45
73 Zach Metsa D	+0.26	0.00	0.00	+0.26	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	10:46
23 Mattias Samuelsson D	+0.24	0.00	+0.11	+0.10	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	21:48
4 Bowen Byram D	+0.16	+0.55	+0.09	-0.53	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	20:19
17 Jason Zucker L	+0.16	0.00	+0.27	-0.25	+0.15	-0.01	0.00	—	18:40
71 Ryan McLeod C	+0.02	0.00	+0.13	+0.05	0.00	-0.07	-0.08	—	17:38
22 Jack Quinn R	+0.01	0.00	+0.20	-0.19	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	17:28
34 Alex Lyon G	-0.04	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.04	57:43
29 Beck Malenstyn L	-0.06	0.00	+0.03	-0.15	0.00	-0.01	+0.08	—	8:46
8 Michael Kesselring D	-0.12	0.00	0.00	-0.17	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	8:53
19 Peyton Krebs C	-0.12	0.00	+0.03	-0.11	0.00	-0.04	0.00	—	9:38
48 Tyson Kozak C	-0.21	0.00	0.00	-0.21	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	6:49

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.