Buffalo SabresBUF 5–3 Final Florida PanthersFLA

Monday, February 2, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Buffalo SabresBUF	2	1	2	5	20
Florida PanthersFLA	2	1	0	3	42

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
0:37	FLA	Sandis Vilmanis (2) A.J. Greer (10), Niko Mikkola (8) · wrist xG 0.12	0–1 ▶
5:54	FLA	Evan Rodrigues (10) Sam Reinhart (26), Tobias Bjornfot (1) · wrist xG 0.14	0–2 ▶
15:03	BUF	Tage Thompson (29) Peyton Krebs (17), Rasmus Dahlin (34) · snap xG 0.08	1–2 ▶
18:26	BUF	Peyton Krebs (7) Rasmus Dahlin (35), Alex Tuch (26) · backhand xG 0.06	2–2 ▶
2nd Period
5:44	BUF	Zach Benson (7) Ryan McLeod (27), Owen Power (13) · wrist xG 0.20	3–2 ▶
18:59	FLA	Uvis Balinskis (4)PP Sam Reinhart (27), Carter Verhaeghe (26) · snap xG 0.13	3–3 ▶
3rd Period
5:31	BUF	Jason Zucker (14)PP Josh Doan (21), Jack Quinn (23) · wrist xG 0.17	4–3 ▶
17:51	BUF	Josh Doan (17) Peyton Krebs (18), Ryan McLeod (28) · wrist xG 0.19	5–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

BUF 21%Deserve to win79% FLA

BUF		FLA
3.02	Expected goals	4.40
5	Goals (no shootout)	3
1.87	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.70
49	Shot attempts	81
36	Unblocked attempts	59
20	Shots on goal	42

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
10:00	FLA	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced BUF 1.11–0.08 In xG over 10 minutes, 0:30 to 10:30 of the 1st; goals 2–0
2nd Period
5:44	FLA	Goalie	Goalie · Bobrovsky −2.1 goals saved 3 goals on 0.92 xG, 12 shots on goal
10:40	FLA	No shift	No shift · Bennett, 28:21 on the bench No shift after 18:26 of the 1st; 7 shifts (5:11) before that
3rd Period
18:08	FLA	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Bobrovsky, down 5–3 With 1:52 left
18:10	FLA	No shift	No shift · Kunin, 10:01 on the bench No shift after 5:01 of the 3rd; 10 shifts (6:58) before that

Shot map

BUF shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ FLA shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Buffalo Sabres

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
89	Alex Tuch	0	1	1	+3	7	0.07	1	2	22:27
72	Tage Thompson	1	0	1	+2	12	1.07	0	0	20:14
19	Peyton Krebs	1	2	3	+2	2	0.18	7	0	19:27
71	Ryan McLeod	0	2	2	+1	3	0.28	0	1	16:54
91	Josh Doan	1	1	2	0	3	0.23	3	0	16:22
22	Jack Quinn	0	1	1	-1	7	0.45	1	0	16:13
17	Jason Zucker	1	0	1	-1	3	0.29	1	0	16:00
6	Zach Benson	1	0	1	+1	2	0.22	1	0	14:10
86	Noah Ostlund	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	0	0	12:15
48	Tyson Kozak	0	0	0	0	2	0.06	3	1	11:14
29	Beck Malenstyn	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4	0	08:04
27	Isak Rosen	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	03:08
Defense
23	Mattias Samuelsson	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	1	7	27:26
25	Owen Power	0	1	1	+1	1	0.02	1	4	24:17
24	Bowen Byram	0	0	0	+1	1	0.00	0	2	22:54
26	Rasmus Dahlin	0	2	2	+1	3	0.14	0	2	21:54
7	Michael Kesselring	0	0	0	+1	1	0.01	0	0	11:48
73	Zach Metsa	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	07:30

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Alex Lyon	42	3	39	.929	4.40	+1.40

Florida Panthers

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
13	Sam Reinhart	0	2	2	-1	9	0.39	1	2	24:41
17	Evan Rodrigues	1	0	1	-1	11	0.57	1	0	24:09
19	Matthew Tkachuk	0	0	0	-3	7	0.23	1	1	24:07
23	Carter Verhaeghe	0	1	1	-2	11	0.75	0	0	22:53
27	Eetu Luostarinen	0	0	0	0	2	0.04	2	0	17:04
18	A.J. Greer	0	1	1	+1	4	0.24	1	1	15:08
79	Cole Schwindt	0	0	0	+1	4	0.77	1	0	14:24
95	Sandis Vilmanis	1	0	1	0	3	0.13	3	0	14:13
11	Mackie Samoskevich	0	0	0	-1	5	0.45	1	0	10:50
71	Luke Kunin	0	0	0	0	3	0.14	2	0	06:58
70	Jesper Boqvist	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	2	1	06:14
9	Sam Bennett	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	05:11
Defense
26	Uvis Balinskis	1	0	1	0	6	0.45	0	0	24:57
42	Gustav Forsling	0	0	0	-2	3	0.01	0	2	23:16
77	Niko Mikkola	0	1	1	+1	3	0.03	0	3	20:19
5	Aaron Ekblad	0	0	0	-2	6	0.06	4	1	20:15
2	Jeff Petry	0	0	0	0	2	0.01	2	0	12:00

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Sergei Bobrovsky	20	5	15	.750	2.40	-2.60

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Buffalo Sabres

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
19 Peyton Krebs C	+2.35	+2.15	+0.12	-0.05	+0.15	-0.02	0.00	—	19:27
26 Rasmus Dahlin D	+1.73	+1.25	+0.09	+0.46	-0.15	0.00	+0.08	—	21:54
72 Tage Thompson C	+1.68	+0.75	+0.70	+0.31	0.00	-0.01	-0.06	—	20:14
89 Alex Tuch R	+1.55	+0.55	+0.05	+0.70	+0.15	+0.02	+0.08	—	22:27
71 Ryan McLeod C	+1.53	+1.25	+0.18	+0.22	-0.15	+0.02	+0.01	—	16:54
34 Alex Lyon G	+1.40	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.40	59:55
6 Zach Benson L	+0.99	+0.75	+0.14	-0.06	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	14:10
91 Josh Doan R	+0.80	+1.45	+0.15	-0.80	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	16:22
25 Owen Power D	+0.49	+0.55	+0.01	-0.21	0.00	0.00	+0.14	—	24:17
17 Jason Zucker L	+0.43	+0.75	+0.19	-0.49	0.00	-0.02	0.00	—	16:00
22 Jack Quinn R	+0.22	+0.55	+0.29	-0.48	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	16:13
63 Isak Rosen R	+0.04	0.00	0.00	-0.01	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	3:08
8 Michael Kesselring D	+0.02	0.00	+0.01	+0.08	0.00	0.00	-0.06	—	11:48
29 Beck Malenstyn L	-0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	8:04
23 Mattias Samuelsson D	-0.10	0.00	0.00	-0.43	0.00	0.00	+0.33	—	27:26
48 Tyson Kozak C	-0.11	0.00	+0.04	-0.19	0.00	+0.01	+0.03	—	11:14
73 Zach Metsa D	-0.50	0.00	0.00	-0.52	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	7:30
4 Bowen Byram D	-0.67	0.00	0.00	-0.60	-0.15	0.00	+0.08	—	22:54
86 Noah Ostlund C	-0.96	0.00	0.00	-0.95	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	12:15

Florida Panthers

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
10 A.J. Greer L	+2.08	+0.70	+0.15	+1.19	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	15:08
22 Tobias Bjornfot D	+2.01	+0.55	+0.09	+1.25	0.00	0.00	+0.12	—	11:01
79 Cole Schwindt R	+1.73	0.00	+0.50	+1.38	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	14:24
95 Sandis Vilmanis L	+1.68	+0.75	+0.08	+0.87	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	14:13
13 Sam Reinhart C	+1.29	+1.40	+0.25	-0.37	0.00	-0.01	+0.02	—	24:41
77 Niko Mikkola D	+1.01	+0.55	+0.02	+0.30	0.00	0.00	+0.15	—	20:19
2 Jeff Petry D	+0.99	0.00	+0.01	+1.13	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	12:00
17 Evan Rodrigues C	+0.97	+0.75	+0.37	-0.34	+0.15	+0.03	+0.02	—	24:09
26 Uvis Balinskis D	+0.87	+0.75	+0.29	-0.21	0.00	0.00	+0.04	—	24:57
70 Jesper Boqvist C	+0.48	0.00	+0.01	+0.44	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	6:14
23 Carter Verhaeghe C	+0.36	+0.55	+0.49	-0.61	0.00	-0.02	-0.04	—	22:53
71 Luke Kunin C	+0.34	0.00	+0.09	+0.24	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	6:58
11 Mackie Samoskevich R	+0.27	0.00	+0.29	-0.03	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	10:50
27 Eetu Luostarinen C	+0.04	0.00	+0.02	-0.14	+0.15	+0.01	0.00	—	17:04
9 Sam Bennett C	-0.21	0.00	0.00	-0.21	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	5:11
42 Gustav Forsling D	-0.32	0.00	+0.01	-0.41	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	23:16
5 Aaron Ekblad D	-0.46	0.00	+0.04	-0.48	0.00	0.00	-0.03	—	20:15
19 Matthew Tkachuk L	-0.76	0.00	+0.15	-0.96	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	24:07
72 Sergei Bobrovsky G	-2.60	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-2.60	58:08

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.