| Final/OT | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 20 | |
| 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 24 |
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 0:38 | Joel Eriksson Ek (15) Marcus Johansson (23), Matt Boldy (28) · wrist xG 0.03 | 0–1 ▶ | |
| 15:48 | Kirill Kaprizov (31) Quinn Hughes (48), Ryan Hartman (12) · tip-in xG 0.09 | 0–2 ▶ | |
| 19:08 | Brendan Gallagher (5) Phillip Danault (11), Mike Matheson (23) · wrist xG 0.22 | 1–2 ▶ | |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 19:43 | Ivan Demidov (12) Lane Hutson (48), Alexandre Carrier (12) · snap xG 0.13 | 2–2 ▶ | |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 0:12 | Kirby Dach (7) Nick Suzuki (47), Noah Dobson (26) · tip-in xG 0.28 | 3–2 ▶ | |
| 7:05 | Brock Faber (13) Marcus Johansson (24), Quinn Hughes (49) · wrist xG 0.12 | 3–3 ▶ | |
| Overtime | |||
| 3:38 | Kirill Kaprizov (32)PP Quinn Hughes (50), Matt Boldy (29) · snap xG 0.09 | 3–4 ▶ | |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| MTL | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.87 | Expected goals | 3.04 |
| 3 | Goals (no shootout) | 4 |
| 1.69 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 2.36 |
| 45 | Shot attempts | 65 |
| 29 | Unblocked attempts | 50 |
| 20 | Shots on goal | 24 |
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 18:00 | MIN | No shift | No shift · Hunt, 47:30 on the bench
No shift after 7:57 of the 1st; 3 shifts (1:52) before that |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 1:30 | MTL | No shift | No shift · Xhekaj, 12:29 on the bench
No shift from 6:53 of the 2nd to 3:55 of the 3rd; 6 shifts (4:37) before that |
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 14 | Nick Suzuki | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 0.06 | 1 | 0 | 20:34 |
| 13 | Cole Caufield | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0 | 0 | 19:03 |
| 20 | Juraj Slafkovský | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.32 | 0 | 0 | 18:09 |
| 77 | Kirby Dach | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 0.41 | 1 | 0 | 17:19 |
| 24 | Phillip Danault | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0.11 | 1 | 3 | 16:26 |
| 71 | Jake Evans | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | 1 | 1 | 15:44 |
| 91 | Oliver Kapanen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | 14:23 |
| 93 | Ivan Demidov | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.13 | 0 | 1 | 14:11 |
| 17 | Josh Anderson | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 0.00 | 3 | 0 | 13:06 |
| 7 | Brendan Gallagher | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 0 | 13:03 |
| 90 | Joseph Veleno | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 11:24 |
| 76 | Zachary Bolduc | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.14 | 3 | 0 | 11:18 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 48 | Lane Hutson | 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 25:55 |
| 8 | Mike Matheson | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 6 | 0.04 | 0 | 2 | 25:41 |
| 53 | Noah Dobson | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0.07 | 3 | 3 | 25:10 |
| 21 | Kaiden Guhle | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 0.05 | 1 | 1 | 20:41 |
| 45 | Alexandre Carrier | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 2 | 19:42 |
| 72 | Arber Xhekaj | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 05:51 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes | 24 | 4 | 20 | .833 | 3.04 | -0.96 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 97 | Kirill Kaprizov | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 9 | 0.68 | 1 | 0 | 23:50 |
| 12 | Matt Boldy | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 5 | 0.51 | 1 | 0 | 21:10 |
| 14 | Joel Eriksson Ek | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 0.04 | 2 | 0 | 20:14 |
| 36 | Mats Zuccarello | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.02 | 0 | 1 | 18:17 |
| 38 | Ryan Hartman | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0.27 | 1 | 2 | 17:49 |
| 13 | Yakov Trenin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | 6 | 0 | 16:17 |
| 90 | Marcus Johansson | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 4 | 0.17 | 0 | 0 | 15:58 |
| 22 | Danila Yurov | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 0.27 | 1 | 0 | 15:27 |
| 91 | Vladimir Tarasenko | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 0.21 | 1 | 2 | 15:13 |
| 78 | Nico Sturm | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 08:18 |
| 18 | Vinnie Hinostroza | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.27 | 0 | 1 | 08:09 |
| 19 | Tyler Pitlick | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 2 | 0 | 08:00 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 43 | Quinn Hughes | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 0.32 | 0 | 0 | 33:19 |
| 7 | Brock Faber | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 0.14 | 0 | 3 | 28:21 |
| 55 | Jake Middleton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | 21:55 |
| 46 | Jared Spurgeon | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.08 | 1 | 2 | 19:31 |
| 24 | Zach Bogosian | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.02 | 0 | 3 | 16:18 |
| 48 | Daemon Hunt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 | 01:52 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson | 20 | 3 | 17 | .850 | 1.87 | -1.13 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48 Lane Hutson D | +1.51 | +0.70 | 0.00 | +0.98 | -0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 25:55 |
| 93 Ivan Demidov R | +1.11 | +0.75 | +0.09 | +0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 14:11 |
| 45 Alexandre Carrier D | +1.09 | +0.55 | 0.00 | +0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 | — | 19:42 |
| 11 Brendan Gallagher R | +0.91 | +0.75 | +0.15 | +0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 13:03 |
| 24 Phillip Danault C | +0.77 | +0.70 | +0.07 | +0.01 | -0.15 | +0.01 | +0.13 | — | 16:26 |
| 53 Noah Dobson D | +0.69 | +0.55 | +0.05 | -0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.15 | — | 25:10 |
| 77 Kirby Dach C | +0.44 | +0.75 | +0.27 | -0.55 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.02 | — | 17:19 |
| 91 Oliver Kapanen C | +0.41 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.25 | 0.00 | -0.03 | +0.02 | — | 14:23 |
| 20 Juraj Slafkovský L | +0.33 | 0.00 | +0.21 | +0.12 | 0.00 | +0.01 | 0.00 | — | 18:09 |
| 14 Nick Suzuki C | +0.23 | +0.70 | +0.04 | -0.49 | 0.00 | -0.02 | 0.00 | — | 20:34 |
| 17 Josh Anderson R | -0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 13:06 |
| 72 Arber Xhekaj D | -0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 5:51 |
| 71 Jake Evans C | -0.25 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.41 | 0.00 | +0.09 | +0.07 | — | 15:44 |
| 76 Zachary Bolduc R | -0.25 | 0.00 | +0.09 | -0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 11:18 |
| 90 Joseph Veleno C | -0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.43 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 11:24 |
| 13 Cole Caufield R | -0.48 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 19:03 |
| 8 Mike Matheson D | -0.90 | +0.55 | +0.03 | -1.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 25:41 |
| 75 Jakub Dobes G | -0.96 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -0.96 | 62:52 |
| 21 Kaiden Guhle D | -1.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -1.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 20:41 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43 Quinn Hughes D | +2.84 | +1.95 | +0.21 | +0.54 | +0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 33:19 |
| 90 Marcus Johansson L | +2.07 | +1.40 | +0.11 | +0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 15:58 |
| 12 Matt Boldy L | +2.03 | +1.10 | +0.33 | +0.61 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 21:10 |
| 97 Kirill Kaprizov L | +1.61 | +1.50 | +0.44 | -0.46 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 23:50 |
| 7 Brock Faber D | +1.31 | +0.75 | +0.09 | +0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.17 | — | 28:21 |
| 14 Joel Eriksson Ek C | +1.00 | +0.75 | +0.02 | +0.26 | 0.00 | -0.04 | 0.00 | — | 20:14 |
| 38 Ryan Hartman R | +0.92 | +0.55 | +0.18 | +0.08 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.08 | — | 17:49 |
| 46 Jared Spurgeon D | +0.82 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 | — | 19:31 |
| 13 Yakov Trenin C | +0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.44 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 16:17 |
| 18 Vinnie Hinostroza C | +0.36 | 0.00 | +0.18 | +0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 | — | 8:09 |
| 91 Vladimir Tarasenko R | +0.33 | 0.00 | +0.14 | +0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.04 | — | 15:13 |
| 22 Danila Yurov R | +0.32 | 0.00 | +0.17 | +0.17 | 0.00 | -0.02 | 0.00 | — | 15:27 |
| 19 Tyler Pitlick C | +0.23 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 8:00 |
| 78 Nico Sturm C | +0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.23 | 0.00 | -0.02 | 0.00 | — | 8:18 |
| 24 Zach Bogosian D | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.14 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.15 | — | 16:18 |
| 48 Daemon Hunt D | +0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 1:52 |
| 36 Mats Zuccarello R | -0.04 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.24 | +0.15 | +0.02 | +0.01 | — | 18:17 |
| 5 Jake Middleton D | -0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 21:55 |
| 32 Filip Gustavsson G | -1.13 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -1.13 | 63:38 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.