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Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 4–2 Final Calgary FlamesCGY

Monday, February 2, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 121 4 22
Calgary FlamesCGY 020 2 30

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
0:35 TOR William Nylander (18) John Tavares (27) · wrist xG 0.20 1–0 ▶
2nd Period
7:17 TOR Matias Maccelli (8) William Nylander (32) · snap xG 0.06 2–0 ▶
9:10 TOR Troy Stecher (3) William Nylander (33), Auston Matthews (21) · backhand xG 0.41 3–0 ▶
13:15 CGY Nazem Kadri (10) Joel Farabee (11), Joel Hanley (7) · wrist xG 0.09 3–1 ▶
15:46 CGY Joel Farabee (12) Nazem Kadri (27), MacKenzie Weegar (15) · tip-in xG 0.12 3–2 ▶
3rd Period
19:35 TOR Bobby McMann (18)EN Scott Laughton (3), Brandon Carlo (5) · wrist xG 0.63 4–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TOR 54%Deserve to win46% CGY
TORCGY
2.92Expected goals2.07
4Goals (no shootout)2
1.53Expected goals, 5 on 52.05
52Shot attempts70
35Unblocked attempts43
22Shots on goal30

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
18:16 CGY Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Wolf, down 3–2
With 1:44 left; TOR scored at 19:35 of the 3rd (4–2)

Shot map

TOR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ CGY shoots
Matvei Gridin: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 0:10) Mikael Backlund: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 1:10) Connor Zary: wrist, 96 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 1:38) Nicolas Roy: tip-in, 26 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 1:58) Connor Zary: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 2:12) MacKenzie Weegar: snap, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:00) Matvei Gridin: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 3:07) Jonathan Huberdeau: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 3:26) Jonathan Huberdeau: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 3:30) Brandon Carlo: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 3:46) Yegor Sharangovich: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:01) Matt Coronato: slap, 20 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:25) Connor Zary: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 5:41) Matt Coronato: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 7:58) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:51) Auston Matthews: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 9:04) Yan Kuznetsov: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 12:21) Nicolas Roy: tip-in, 23 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 12:31) Joel Hanley: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:55) Ryan Lomberg: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 15:00) Nick Robertson: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 16:28) MacKenzie Weegar: snap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:17) John Tavares: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 0:28) Nazem Kadri: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:03) Joel Farabee: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 2:42) Simon Benoit: snap, 53 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 3:38) Scott Laughton: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 6:35) John Tavares: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 7:07) Scott Laughton: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 7:41) Matt Coronato: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 7:59) Mikael Backlund: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 8:06) Auston Matthews: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 8:30) Troy Stecher: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 8:35) Auston Matthews: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 9:05) Nick Robertson: backhand, 27 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 10:27) Matt Coronato: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 12:55) Zach Whitecloud: slap, 86 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 14:10) Mikael Backlund: backhand, 33 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 14:13) Yan Kuznetsov: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 15:37) Philippe Myers: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 16:28) Philippe Myers: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 17:11) Nick Robertson: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:14) Scott Laughton: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 18:07) Matvei Gridin: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:06) Matvei Gridin: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 1:06) Jonathan Huberdeau: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 1:19) Bobby McMann: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:08) Troy Stecher: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 4:16) Joel Farabee: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 4:26) Simon Benoit: snap, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:55) Simon Benoit: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 5:13) William Nylander: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 5:36) William Nylander: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 5:45) Nazem Kadri: wrist, 97 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 5:52) William Nylander: wrist, 156 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 6:05) Matthew Knies: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 6:30) Troy Stecher: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 6:48) Matt Coronato: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 7:31) Matt Coronato: backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 7:35) Joel Farabee: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 8:32) Matias Maccelli: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 8:47) Matvei Gridin: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 10:07) Zach Whitecloud: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:15) Yegor Sharangovich: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 12:07) Matias Maccelli: slap, 25 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 12:33) Kevin Bahl: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:56) Adam Klapka: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 14:12) Zayne Parekh: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:12) Matt Coronato: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 15:55) Matt Coronato: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 16:15) Max Domi: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:16) Morgan Frost: wrap-around, 7 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 18:11) William Nylander: GOAL, wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.20 (P1 0:35) Matias Maccelli: GOAL, snap, 15 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 7:17) Troy Stecher: GOAL, backhand, 4 ft, xG 0.41 (P2 9:10) Nazem Kadri: GOAL, wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 13:15) Joel Farabee: GOAL, tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 15:46) Bobby McMann: GOAL, wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.63 (P3 19:35)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Toronto Maple Leafs

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
63 Matias Maccelli 101 0 30.28 0017:33
88 William Nylander 123 +1 50.30 0017:00
91 John Tavares 011 0 30.14 1016:45
34 Auston Matthews 011 +2 30.22 0216:35
10 Nicolas Roy 000 0 40.10 1315:16
74 Bobby McMann 101 +1 20.65 2114:54
89 Matthew Knies 000 0 10.07 1014:45
11 Max Domi 000 0 10.01 0114:28
21 Scott Laughton 011 +1 30.37 1014:06
14 Nick Robertson 000 0 40.04 1012:15
19 Calle Jarnkrok 000 0 10.00 0111:21
18 Steven Lorentz 000 0 10.00 1210:53
Defense
22 Jake McCabe 000 +1 10.00 1523:46
25 Brandon Carlo 011 +1 40.07 1221:19
28 Troy Stecher 101 +1 40.60 0320:08
44 Simon Benoit 000 0 40.03 3418:56
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson 000 0 30.01 0218:31
51 Philippe Myers 000 +1 50.05 1117:29
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Joseph Woll 30228 .933 2.07 +0.07

Calgary Flames

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
27 Matt Coronato 000 -1 130.49 0019:27
91 Nazem Kadri 112 0 50.12 1119:15
17 Yegor Sharangovich 000 -1 40.12 0118:49
92 Matvei Gridin 000 -3 70.21 0116:24
11 Mikael Backlund 000 0 50.26 0016:16
86 Joel Farabee 112 0 40.23 0115:59
16 Morgan Frost 000 -2 20.17 0115:53
47 Connor Zary 000 +2 30.15 0014:46
10 Jonathan Huberdeau 000 -2 40.17 1114:26
43 Adam Klapka 000 0 20.03 5210:43
94 Ryan Lomberg 000 0 10.01 6010:35
76 Martin Pospisil 000 0 00.00 4008:59
Defense
7 Kevin Bahl 000 -1 30.02 1020:59
52 MacKenzie Weegar 011 -1 40.02 0220:59
28 Zach Whitecloud 000 -1 30.01 0120:48
19 Zayne Parekh 000 0 60.01 0120:05
37 Yan Kuznetsov 000 -1 30.05 2218:20
44 Joel Hanley 011 +1 10.01 0316:36
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Dustin Wolf 21318 .857 2.29 -0.71

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
88 William Nylander R +2.87 +2.15 +0.20 +0.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:00
91 John Tavares C +1.40 +0.70 +0.09 +0.55 0.00 +0.06 0.00 — 16:45
63 Matias Maccelli L +1.16 +0.75 +0.18 +0.25 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:33
28 Troy Stecher D +1.06 +0.75 +0.39 -0.19 0.00 0.00 +0.11 — 20:08
74 Bobby McMann C +0.73 +0.75 +0.42 -0.48 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 14:54
51 Philippe Myers D +0.70 0.00 +0.03 +0.65 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 17:29
24 Scott Laughton C +0.62 +0.70 +0.24 -0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:06
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D +0.46 0.00 +0.01 +0.35 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 18:31
34 Auston Matthews C +0.26 +0.55 +0.14 -0.60 0.00 +0.07 +0.10 — 16:35
2 Simon Benoit D +0.25 0.00 +0.02 +0.03 0.00 0.00 +0.20 — 18:56
18 Steven Lorentz C +0.13 0.00 0.00 +0.03 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 10:53
60 Joseph Woll G +0.07 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.07 60:00
89 Nick Robertson L -0.09 0.00 +0.02 -0.15 0.00 +0.01 +0.02 — 12:15
55 Nicolas Roy C -0.17 0.00 +0.07 -0.39 0.00 +0.01 +0.15 — 15:16
19 Calle Jarnkrok C -0.17 0.00 0.00 -0.21 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 11:21
25 Brandon Carlo D -0.23 +0.55 +0.05 -0.93 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 21:19
23 Matthew Knies L -0.48 0.00 +0.04 -0.37 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 14:45
11 Max Domi C -0.52 0.00 0.00 -0.55 0.00 -0.03 +0.05 — 14:28
22 Jake McCabe D -0.83 0.00 0.00 -1.06 0.00 0.00 +0.23 — 23:46

Calgary Flames

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
91 Nazem Kadri C +2.27 +1.45 +0.08 +0.73 0.00 -0.03 +0.05 — 19:15
86 Joel Farabee L +2.21 +1.45 +0.15 +0.59 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 15:59
27 Matt Coronato R +1.13 0.00 +0.32 +0.81 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:27
7 Kevin Bahl D +0.97 0.00 +0.01 +0.98 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 20:59
17 Yegor Sharangovich C +0.90 0.00 +0.08 +0.82 0.00 -0.01 +0.01 — 18:49
44 Joel Hanley D +0.77 +0.55 +0.01 -0.08 +0.15 0.00 +0.15 — 16:36
28 Zach Whitecloud D +0.74 0.00 +0.01 +0.70 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 20:48
11 Mikael Backlund C +0.72 0.00 +0.17 +0.59 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 — 16:16
47 Connor Zary C +0.68 0.00 +0.10 +0.56 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 14:46
52 MacKenzie Weegar D +0.60 +0.55 +0.01 -0.06 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 20:59
19 Zayne Parekh D +0.15 0.00 +0.01 +0.12 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 20:05
43 Adam Klapka R -0.08 0.00 +0.02 -0.19 0.00 -0.01 +0.10 — 10:43
16 Morgan Frost C -0.31 0.00 +0.11 -0.40 0.00 -0.05 +0.03 — 15:53
70 Ryan Lomberg L -0.33 0.00 +0.01 -0.34 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:35
10 Jonathan Huberdeau L -0.36 0.00 +0.11 -0.50 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 14:26
76 Martin Pospisil C -0.38 0.00 0.00 -0.38 0.00 +0.02 -0.02 — 8:59
37 Yan Kuznetsov D -0.42 0.00 +0.03 -0.51 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 18:20
92 Matvei Gridin R -0.43 0.00 +0.13 -0.58 0.00 -0.01 +0.03 — 16:24
32 Dustin Wolf G -0.71 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.71 58:41

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.