Tuesday, February 3, 2026
Playoff odds, %
Change
SEA
-5.7
ANA
+4.8
How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Feb 4, 2026 6:06 PM EST.
Highlights
Shot quality
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken,
the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
SEA 35%Deserve to win 65% ANA
SEA ANA
2.41 Expected goals 3.82
2 Goals (no shootout) 4
1.88 Expected goals, 5 on 5 2.73
57 Shot attempts 73
43 Unblocked attempts 50
28 Shots on goal 31
Game notes
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is
counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the
shots' expected goals (xG).
3rd Period
16:12
SEA
Pulled goalie
Pulled goalie · Pulled Grubauer, down 4–1
With 3:48 left; SEA scored at 17:29 of the 3rd (2–4)
Shot map
SEA shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal → ANA shoots
Olen Zellweger: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 0:10)
Chris Kreider: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 0:24)
Troy Terry: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 0:47)
Brandon Montour: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 1:18)
Jansen Harkins: wrist, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:52)
Radko Gudas: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:05)
Brandon Montour: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:21)
Ryan Winterton: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 3:24)
Jacob Melanson: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 4:56)
Jacob Melanson: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 4:57)
Adam Larsson: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:05)
Tye Kartye: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 7:51)
Mikael Granlund: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 10:11)
Vince Dunn: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 11:01)
Jeffrey Viel: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 11:45)
Brandon Montour: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 11:57)
Jackson LaCombe: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:20)
Ryan Winterton: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 12:40)
Matty Beniers: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 13:57)
Vince Dunn: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 14:15)
Beckett Sennecke: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 14:56)
Cutter Gauthier: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 15:19)
Ross Johnston: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 16:12)
Jansen Harkins: deflected, 10 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 16:13)
Radko Gudas: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 16:16)
Tim Washe: backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 16:19)
Jared McCann: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:47)
Alex Killorn: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 18:13)
Beckett Sennecke: backhand, 23 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 18:37)
Mason McTavish: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 19:07)
Jansen Harkins: wrist, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:43)
Vince Dunn: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 0:13)
Ryan Winterton: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 0:17)
Olen Zellweger: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:39)
Ryan Winterton: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 0:52)
Alex Killorn: tip-in, 26 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 1:32)
Beckett Sennecke: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 1:53)
Beckett Sennecke: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:00)
Beckett Sennecke: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:49)
Mason McTavish: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 3:03)
Radko Gudas: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 5:00)
Mason McTavish: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:31)
Jeffrey Viel: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 7:07)
Tim Washe: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 7:11)
Radko Gudas: slap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:23)
Vince Dunn: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:32)
Alex Killorn: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 8:50)
Pavel Mintyukov: deflected, 10 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 8:57)
Jeffrey Viel: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 9:04)
Cutter Gauthier: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 9:40)
Ryan Poehling: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 11:12)
Matty Beniers: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 12:32)
Jared McCann: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 12:53)
Jaden Schwartz: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 13:16)
Olen Zellweger: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 13:35)
Shane Wright: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 14:12)
Jacob Trouba: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 14:30)
Brandon Montour: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 14:54)
Shane Wright: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 15:07)
Jamie Oleksiak: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 15:46)
Jacob Melanson: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 16:09)
Ryan Winterton: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 17:43)
Beckett Sennecke: backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 3:17)
Cutter Gauthier: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 4:46)
Troy Terry: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 6:19)
Cutter Gauthier: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:02)
Ryker Evans: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 8:10)
Vince Dunn: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 8:17)
Kaapo Kakko: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 8:28)
Troy Terry: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 8:57)
Ross Johnston: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 10:23)
Mason McTavish: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 12:14)
Cutter Gauthier: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 12:57)
Ryan Winterton: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 14:19)
Alex Killorn: deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 14:48)
Vince Dunn: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 15:22)
Alex Killorn: wrist, 96 ft, xG 0.53 (P3 16:38)
Jared McCann: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 17:04)
Jared McCann: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 17:45)
Jordan Eberle: backhand, 4 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 17:46)
Jordan Eberle: tip-in, 35 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 18:26)
Matty Beniers: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 18:33)
Brandon Montour: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 18:48)
Brandon Montour: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 19:06)
Chandler Stephenson: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 19:33)
Brandon Montour: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 19:36)
Jared McCann: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 19:48)
Cutter Gauthier: GOAL, snap, 39 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 4:01)
Jacob Trouba: GOAL, slap, 66 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:27)
Alex Killorn: GOAL, snap, 27 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 0:24)
Ross Johnston: GOAL, snap, 6 ft, xG 0.27 (P3 13:54)
Jordan Eberle: GOAL, tip-in, 4 ft, xG 0.30 (P3 15:31)
Tye Kartye: GOAL, wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 17:29)
About these numbers
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot
from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the
share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how
often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count
as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map
leaves them out.
All columns
Box score
Seattle Kraken
Anaheim Ducks
Goalie
SA GA
SV SV%
xGA
GSAx
Lukas Dostal
28 2 26
.929
2.41
+0.41
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
Player ratings
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
Seattle Kraken
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
7 Jordan Eberle R
+1.30
+0.75
+0.28
+0.25
0.00
0.00
+0.02
—
15:42
19 Jared McCann L
+1.14
+0.70
+0.18
+0.31
0.00
0.00
-0.04
—
16:50
29 Vince Dunn D
+0.60
+0.55
+0.12
-0.09
0.00
0.00
+0.02
—
21:00
12 Tye Kartye L
+0.50
+0.75
+0.10
-0.40
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
11:57
10 Matty Beniers C
+0.16
0.00
+0.09
+0.11
-0.15
+0.04
+0.07
—
18:10
84 Kaapo Kakko R
+0.10
0.00
+0.02
+0.10
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
12:16
6 Adam Larsson D
+0.10
0.00
+0.01
-0.16
0.00
0.00
+0.25
—
20:06
17 Jaden Schwartz L
-0.01
0.00
+0.04
-0.11
0.00
-0.02
+0.08
—
13:28
51 Shane Wright C
-0.06
0.00
+0.06
-0.17
0.00
-0.03
+0.08
—
16:21
63 Jacob Melanson R
-0.08
0.00
+0.13
-0.21
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
8:14
62 Brandon Montour D
-0.12
0.00
+0.12
-0.28
-0.15
0.00
+0.19
—
24:14
24 Jamie Oleksiak D
-0.14
0.00
+0.07
-0.15
-0.15
0.00
+0.10
—
19:56
89 Frederick Gaudreau C
-0.49
0.00
0.00
-0.61
0.00
+0.07
+0.05
—
14:50
31 Philipp Grubauer G
-0.71
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
-0.71
56:12
26 Ryan Winterton C
-0.72
0.00
+0.26
-0.96
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
14:13
20 Eeli Tolvanen R
-0.79
0.00
0.00
-0.84
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
15:05
41 Ryker Evans D
-0.79
0.00
+0.02
-0.82
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
16:39
55 Ryan Lindgren D
-0.94
0.00
0.00
-0.96
0.00
0.00
+0.02
—
17:45
9 Chandler Stephenson C
-1.09
0.00
+0.07
-1.16
0.00
+0.02
-0.02
—
19:02
Anaheim Ducks
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
17 Alex Killorn L
+1.86
+0.75
+0.72
+0.27
+0.15
-0.01
-0.02
—
16:21
24 Jansen Harkins C
+1.74
+1.40
+0.04
+0.30
0.00
+0.02
-0.02
—
11:11
2 Jackson LaCombe D
+1.61
+1.40
+0.01
+0.03
0.00
0.00
+0.17
—
23:19
44 Ross Johnston L
+1.53
+0.75
+0.34
+0.44
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
9:24
25 Ryan Poehling C
+1.41
+0.55
+0.06
+0.76
0.00
+0.01
+0.03
—
16:58
64 Mikael Granlund C
+1.28
+0.55
+0.09
+0.68
0.00
-0.03
0.00
—
19:05
7 Radko Gudas D
+1.16
0.00
+0.04
+1.00
0.00
0.00
+0.13
—
17:19
61 Cutter Gauthier L
+1.15
+0.75
+0.21
+0.28
0.00
-0.04
-0.06
—
18:24
51 Olen Zellweger D
+0.96
0.00
+0.12
+0.79
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
17:13
74 Ian Moore D
+0.94
+0.55
0.00
+0.26
0.00
0.00
+0.13
—
17:48
45 Beckett Sennecke R
+0.89
0.00
+0.15
+0.77
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
18:43
65 Jacob Trouba D
+0.58
+0.75
+0.03
-0.23
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
19:28
20 Chris Kreider L
+0.47
0.00
+0.06
+0.39
0.00
0.00
+0.02
—
18:57
98 Pavel Mintyukov D
+0.45
0.00
+0.06
+0.40
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
19:20
1 Lukas Dostal G
+0.41
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
+0.41
60:00
28 Jeffrey Viel L
+0.40
0.00
+0.09
+0.14
+0.15
0.00
+0.03
—
13:38
19 Troy Terry R
+0.37
0.00
+0.27
+0.10
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
16:00
42 Tim Washe C
+0.25
+0.55
+0.07
-0.32
0.00
-0.01
-0.04
—
10:51
23 Mason McTavish C
+0.24
0.00
+0.13
+0.10
0.00
-0.02
+0.03
—
14:01
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a
player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays,
all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.