hockeystats.io

St. Louis BluesSTL 4–5 Final Dallas StarsDAL

Wednesday, February 4, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
St. Louis BluesSTL 202 4 18
Dallas StarsDAL 131 5 28
Playoff odds, % Change
STL -0.0
DAL +0.0

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Feb 4, 2026 9:12 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
7:29 STL Pavel Buchnevich (12)PP Jordan Kyrou (19), Justin Faulk (18) · slap xG 0.14 1–0 ▶
11:37 DAL Jason Robertson (32) Mikko Rantanen (49), Miro Heiskanen (38) · snap xG 0.13 1–1 ▶
18:33 STL Jordan Kyrou (13) Justin Faulk (19), Tyler Tucker (10) · snap xG 0.11 2–1 ▶
2nd Period
1:55 DAL Matt Duchene (10)PP Thomas Harley (18), Jamie Benn (13) · snap xG 0.06 2–2 ▶
3:58 DAL Mavrik Bourque (11) Jason Robertson (34), Roope Hintz (29) · snap xG 0.35 2–3 ▶
11:57 DAL Jamie Benn (8) Matt Duchene (10), Esa Lindell (17) · snap xG 0.17 2–4 ▶
3rd Period
11:05 STL Jimmy Snuggerud (10) Unassisted · snap xG 0.10 3–4 ▶
15:31 STL Alexey Toropchenko (3) Philip Broberg (16), Jimmy Snuggerud (14) · snap xG 0.29 4–4 ▶
19:37 DAL Jamie Benn (9) Miro Heiskanen (39) · snap xG 0.11 4–5 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

STL 32%Deserve to win68% DAL
STLDAL
2.53Expected goals3.63
4Goals (no shootout)5
2.03Expected goals, 5 on 52.14
45Shot attempts49
27Unblocked attempts37
18Shots on goal28

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
3:50 DAL xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced STL 1.63–0.11
In xG over 10 minutes, 14:00 of the 1st to 4:00 of the 2nd; goals 2–1
3rd Period
19:37 STL Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Binnington, down 5–4
With 0:23 left; DAL scored at 19:37 of the 3rd (4–5)

Shot map

STL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ DAL shoots
Mavrik Bourque: backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 0:20) Roope Hintz: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 0:21) Roope Hintz: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 0:22) Roope Hintz: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 0:23) Roope Hintz: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 0:23) Wyatt Johnston: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 1:02) Mikko Rantanen: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.23 (P1 1:13) Justin Faulk: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 6:15) Pavel Buchnevich: deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 6:30) Alexey Toropchenko: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 8:28) Mikko Rantanen: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 11:35) Robby Fabbri: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 13:15) Dalibor Dvorsky: slap, 28 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 13:45) Wyatt Johnston: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 15:18) Jason Robertson: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.31 (P1 15:20) Jason Robertson: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 15:34) Jason Robertson: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 15:55) Sam Steel: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 17:34) Nils Lundkvist: snap, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:43) Philip Broberg: wrist, 173 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 1:31) Matt Duchene: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 1:49) Thomas Harley: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:54) Miro Heiskanen: snap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:59) Miro Heiskanen: snap, 58 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 3:14) Jason Robertson: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 3:56) Jordan Kyrou: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 4:05) Ilya Lyubushkin: slap, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:58) Sam Steel: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 6:20) Jamie Benn: snap, 5 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 6:23) Pavel Buchnevich: snap, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:47) Jordan Kyrou: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 8:02) Roope Hintz: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 8:35) Oskar Bäck: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 9:43) Mikko Rantanen: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 9:51) Jason Robertson: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 10:37) Mikko Rantanen: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 11:17) Jason Robertson: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 11:25) Tyler Tucker: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 12:46) Matt Duchene: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 17:17) Dalibor Dvorsky: slap, 24 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 18:38) Jordan Kyrou: slap, 34 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 19:33) Nathan Walker: backhand, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:32) Alexey Toropchenko: deflected, 14 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 6:20) Tyler Tucker: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.53 (P3 6:23) Justin Faulk: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 6:27) Justin Faulk: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 7:18) Jordan Kyrou: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 9:51) Tyler Tucker: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:45) Matthew Kessel: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:49) Adam Erne: snap, 8 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 12:36) Matt Duchene: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:35) Jordan Kyrou: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 16:45) Jimmy Snuggerud: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:10) Dalibor Dvorsky: backhand, 24 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 17:49) Thomas Harley: backhand, 18 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 19:08) Pavel Buchnevich: GOAL, slap, 31 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 7:29) Jason Robertson: GOAL, snap, 16 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 11:37) Jordan Kyrou: GOAL, snap, 26 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 18:33) Matt Duchene: GOAL, snap, 29 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 1:55) Mavrik Bourque: GOAL, snap, 6 ft, xG 0.35 (P2 3:58) Jamie Benn: GOAL, snap, 22 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 11:57) Jimmy Snuggerud: GOAL, snap, 34 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 11:05) Alexey Toropchenko: GOAL, snap, 14 ft, xG 0.29 (P3 15:31) Jamie Benn: GOAL, snap, 29 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 19:37)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

St. Louis Blues

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
89 Pavel Buchnevich 101 0 70.31 0020:26
25 Jordan Kyrou 112 0 80.45 0019:16
63 Jake Neighbours 000 0 00.00 4119:07
22 Pius Suter 000 0 00.00 0218:59
21 Jimmy Snuggerud 112 +2 30.11 1118:11
10 Brayden Schenn 000 0 10.00 4016:11
15 Dalibor Dvorsky 000 -1 50.36 0113:53
70 Oskar Sundqvist 000 -3 00.00 4013:33
21 Robby Fabbri 000 0 20.07 6013:27
26 Nathan Walker 000 -1 20.01 3013:23
13 Alexey Toropchenko 101 0 30.45 0112:47
Defense
6 Philip Broberg 011 -1 10.00 1122:44
72 Justin Faulk 022 +2 50.22 0020:40
55 Colton Parayko 000 -4 10.00 2217:56
17 Cam Fowler 000 -1 10.00 0017:39
23 Logan Mailloux 000 0 10.00 1015:09
75 Tyler Tucker 011 +1 40.55 2013:13
4 Matthew Kessel 000 +1 10.01 0107:49
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jordan Binnington 28523 .821 3.63 -1.37

Dallas Stars

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
21 Jason Robertson 112 +2 81.10 0019:35
96 Mikko Rantanen 011 0 40.60 0016:49
53 Wyatt Johnston 000 0 20.20 1016:42
95 Matt Duchene 112 +1 40.21 1116:19
22 Mavrik Bourque 101 +1 30.37 5116:15
12 Radek Faksa 000 0 10.00 2215:10
24 Roope Hintz 011 0 50.23 2115:08
10 Oskar Bäck 000 0 10.04 0114:03
18 Sam Steel 000 0 20.18 0013:19
14 Jamie Benn 213 +1 40.32 2012:34
73 Adam Erne 000 -1 30.21 1011:39
49 Justin Hryckowian 000 -1 00.00 2010:44
Defense
4 Miro Heiskanen 022 +1 40.08 1325:20
23 Esa Lindell 011 +1 00.00 1525:15
55 Thomas Harley 011 +1 40.06 2020:27
46 Ilya Lyubushkin 000 -1 10.01 3115:32
20 Kyle Capobianco 000 -1 00.00 1114:17
5 Nils Lundkvist 000 +1 30.01 0214:07
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jake Oettinger 18414 .778 2.53 -1.47

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

St. Louis Blues

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
25 Jordan Kyrou R +2.48 +1.45 +0.29 +0.84 0.00 0.00 -0.10 — 19:16
75 Tyler Tucker D +2.17 +0.55 +0.36 +1.12 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 13:13
13 Alexey Toropchenko R +2.07 +0.75 +0.29 +0.82 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 12:47
72 Justin Faulk D +1.96 +1.25 +0.14 +0.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 20:40
21 Jimmy Snuggerud R +1.52 +1.30 +0.07 +0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 18:11
89 Pavel Buchnevich L +1.21 +0.75 +0.20 +0.27 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 20:26
51 Matthew Kessel D +0.61 0.00 +0.01 +0.56 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 7:49
23 Logan Mailloux D +0.55 0.00 0.00 +0.53 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 15:09
6 Philip Broberg D +0.12 +0.70 0.00 -0.56 0.00 0.00 -0.03 — 22:44
63 Jake Neighbours L +0.10 0.00 0.00 +0.18 -0.15 0.00 +0.07 — 19:07
22 Pius Suter C -0.02 0.00 0.00 -0.13 0.00 +0.01 +0.10 — 18:59
9 Robby Fabbri C -0.33 0.00 +0.05 -0.19 -0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 13:27
10 Brayden Schenn C -0.54 0.00 0.00 -0.49 0.00 -0.03 -0.02 — 16:11
54 Dalibor Dvorsky R -0.54 0.00 +0.23 -0.84 0.00 +0.02 +0.05 — 13:53
26 Nathan Walker L -0.60 0.00 0.00 -0.59 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:23
70 Oskar Sundqvist C -0.68 0.00 0.00 -0.79 +0.15 -0.04 0.00 — 13:33
17 Cam Fowler D -1.03 0.00 0.00 -1.01 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:39
50 Jordan Binnington G -1.52 0.00 — — -0.15 — — -1.37 59:37
55 Colton Parayko D -1.67 0.00 0.00 -1.75 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 17:56

Dallas Stars

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
21 Jason Robertson L +2.69 +1.45 +0.72 +0.37 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 19:35
14 Jamie Benn L +2.50 +2.05 +0.21 +0.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:34
4 Miro Heiskanen D +1.81 +1.25 +0.05 +0.38 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 25:20
95 Matt Duchene C +1.77 +1.45 +0.13 +0.15 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 16:19
55 Thomas Harley D +1.43 +0.70 +0.04 +0.71 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 20:27
22 Mavrik Bourque C +1.14 +0.75 +0.24 +0.11 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 16:15
23 Esa Lindell D +1.12 +0.55 0.00 +0.34 0.00 0.00 +0.23 — 25:15
96 Mikko Rantanen R +1.06 +0.70 +0.39 +0.14 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 16:49
24 Roope Hintz C +1.02 +0.55 +0.15 +0.44 -0.15 +0.01 +0.03 — 15:08
5 Nils Lundkvist D +0.79 0.00 +0.01 +0.70 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 14:07
10 Oskar Bäck C +0.22 0.00 +0.02 +0.04 +0.15 0.00 +0.01 — 14:03
49 Justin Hryckowian C +0.10 0.00 0.00 +0.09 0.00 +0.03 -0.02 — 10:44
12 Radek Faksa C +0.06 0.00 0.00 -0.07 0.00 +0.03 +0.10 — 15:10
73 Adam Erne L -0.03 0.00 +0.14 -0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:39
18 Sam Steel C -0.16 0.00 +0.12 -0.27 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 13:19
53 Wyatt Johnston C -0.28 0.00 +0.13 -0.24 -0.15 -0.04 +0.02 — 16:42
46 Ilya Lyubushkin D -0.70 0.00 +0.01 -0.76 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 15:32
20 Kyle Capobianco D -0.79 0.00 0.00 -0.82 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 14:17
29 Jake Oettinger G -1.47 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.47 60:00

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.