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Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT 5–2 Final Buffalo SabresBUF

Thursday, February 5, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT 212 5 32
Buffalo SabresBUF 101 2 27
Playoff odds, % Change
BUF -3.1
PIT +3.1

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Feb 5, 2026 5:15 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
1:46 BUF Jason Zucker (15) Ryan McLeod (30), Bowen Byram (18) · wrist xG 0.03 0–1 ▶
9:18 PIT Avery Hayes (1) Ilya Solovyov (5), Rutger McGroarty (3) · snap xG 0.16 1–1 ▶
18:47 PIT Avery Hayes (2) Anthony Mantha (22), Parker Wotherspoon (16) · snap xG 0.16 2–1 ▶
2nd Period
7:44 PIT Ben Kindel (13) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.15 3–1 ▶
3rd Period
1:55 BUF Tage Thompson (30)PP Jack Quinn (25), Rasmus Dahlin (37) · wrist xG 0.08 3–2 ▶
15:33 PIT Tommy Novak (11) Egor Chinakhov (7), Evgeni Malkin (31) · backhand xG 0.40 4–2 ▶
19:46 PIT Ben Kindel (14)SHEN Connor Dewar (11) · snap xG 0.87 5–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

PIT 56%Deserve to win44% BUF
PITBUF
5.33Expected goals3.05
5Goals (no shootout)2
2.95Expected goals, 5 on 52.08
54Shot attempts60
43Unblocked attempts49
32Shots on goal27

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
2:50 BUF No shift No shift · Bryson, 20:07 on the bench
No shift after 7:44 of the 2nd; 7 shifts (4:19) before that

Shot map

PIT shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ BUF shoots
Sidney Crosby: deflected, 32 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 0:28) Ryan Shea: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 2:30) Tage Thompson: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:11) Jack Quinn: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 4:16) Jack Quinn: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 4:23) Connor Clifton: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:42) Evgeni Malkin: tip-in, 27 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 4:50) Evgeni Malkin: backhand, 33 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:19) Sidney Crosby: backhand, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:25) Tage Thompson: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:36) Tage Thompson: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 5:42) Kevin Hayes: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 6:46) Jack Quinn: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 7:32) Alex Tuch: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 8:15) Michael Kesselring: wrist, 85 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 9:07) Sidney Crosby: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 10:20) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 11:11) Owen Power: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 11:56) Bowen Byram: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 12:13) Avery Hayes: tip-in, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:57) Sidney Crosby: tip-in, 28 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 14:02) Jack Quinn: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 14:23) Tage Thompson: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 15:50) Parker Wotherspoon: snap, 158 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 15:57) Tage Thompson: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:01) Jack Quinn: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 0:44) Tage Thompson: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:05) Alex Tuch: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:58) Alex Tuch: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 2:00) Egor Chinakhov: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 2:29) Evgeni Malkin: tip-in, 4 ft, xG 0.33 (P2 2:55) Bowen Byram: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 6:44) Tage Thompson: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 7:21) Tyson Kozak: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 8:55) Owen Power: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 8:59) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:51) Jack Quinn: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 9:58) Jack Quinn: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 10:21) Jack Quinn: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 10:52) Jack Quinn: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 11:16) Bowen Byram: tip-in, 34 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 12:27) Peyton Krebs: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 13:44) Tage Thompson: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 13:52) Connor Dewar: snap, 49 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 15:53) Tommy Novak: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 16:19) Bowen Byram: wrist, 176 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 16:30) Alex Tuch: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 16:51) Evgeni Malkin: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 18:17) Sidney Crosby: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 18:25) Erik Karlsson: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 19:31) Josh Doan: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 0:25) Evgeni Malkin: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 1:09) Avery Hayes: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:31) Justin Brazeau: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 2:53) Sidney Crosby: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 4:36) Bryan Rust: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 4:42) Sidney Crosby: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 4:49) Erik Karlsson: snap, 53 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 5:19) Beck Malenstyn: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 6:19) Avery Hayes: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 6:30) Rutger McGroarty: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 6:31) Isak Rosen: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 8:06) Egor Chinakhov: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 8:44) Egor Chinakhov: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 8:45) Tage Thompson: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 8:55) Josh Doan: tip-in, 4 ft, xG 0.26 (P3 9:02) Connor Dewar: wrist, 79 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 9:16) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 9:36) Anthony Mantha: snap, 6 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 12:43) Justin Brazeau: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 13:02) Avery Hayes: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 13:27) Sidney Crosby: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 14:07) Noah Ostlund: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:03) Owen Power: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 16:10) Avery Hayes: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 16:19) Avery Hayes: bat, 13 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 16:20) Tage Thompson: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 17:51) Ryan McLeod: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 18:06) Ben Kindel: snap, 49 ft, xG 0.47 (P3 18:19) Isak Rosen: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 18:30) Josh Doan: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 19:01) Alex Tuch: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 19:16) Alex Tuch: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 19:36) Connor Dewar: snap, 78 ft, xG 0.56 (P3 19:42) Beck Malenstyn: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 19:59) Jason Zucker: GOAL, wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 1:46) Avery Hayes: GOAL, snap, 23 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 9:18) Avery Hayes: GOAL, snap, 16 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 18:47) Ben Kindel: GOAL, wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 7:44) Tage Thompson: GOAL, wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 1:55) Tommy Novak: GOAL, backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.40 (P3 15:33) Ben Kindel: GOAL, snap, 12 ft, xG 0.87 (P3 19:46)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Pittsburgh Penguins

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
17 Bryan Rust 000 0 30.07 1323:31
87 Sidney Crosby 000 +1 80.44 0020:05
71 Evgeni Malkin 011 0 60.67 0017:59
81 Ben Kindel 202 +2 31.49 1017:27
39 Anthony Mantha 011 +1 10.18 0016:30
19 Connor Dewar 011 +2 30.59 1015:41
18 Tommy Novak 101 0 20.48 0015:19
59 Egor Chinakhov 011 0 60.26 0013:08
16 Justin Brazeau 000 +1 20.20 0011:11
85 Avery Hayes 202 +2 80.60 2010:09
2 Rutger McGroarty 011 +1 10.04 1110:01
13 Kevin Hayes 000 +1 10.05 1007:07
Defense
29 Parker Wotherspoon 011 +2 10.00 5223:37
65 Erik Karlsson 000 +2 50.08 2022:47
6 Ryan Shea 000 0 10.16 0019:29
27 Brett Kulak 000 0 00.00 0018:44
75 Connor Clifton 000 +3 10.01 5217:19
7 Ilya Solovyov 011 +1 20.00 1012:08
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Arturs Silovs 27225 .926 3.05 +1.05

Buffalo Sabres

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
72 Tage Thompson 101 -3 130.74 1023:18
89 Alex Tuch 000 -2 60.35 0020:53
71 Ryan McLeod 011 0 10.08 0220:01
22 Jack Quinn 011 -1 90.48 0019:24
17 Jason Zucker 101 -1 20.03 1018:48
91 Josh Doan 000 -4 40.35 1018:35
86 Noah Ostlund 000 -1 10.01 0212:23
29 Beck Malenstyn 000 -1 20.23 4011:10
19 Peyton Krebs 000 0 20.16 2010:40
48 Tyson Kozak 000 0 10.04 1110:38
27 Isak Rosen 000 0 30.10 1010:36
94 Konsta Helenius 000 -1 00.00 1008:02
Defense
26 Rasmus Dahlin 011 -1 60.08 0026:32
24 Bowen Byram 011 -1 40.18 0226:00
25 Owen Power 000 -1 30.22 0325:12
23 Mattias Samuelsson 000 -1 10.00 2022:42
7 Michael Kesselring 000 -2 20.00 2007:56
78 Jacob Bryson 000 -1 00.00 0004:19
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Alex Lyon 31427 .871 3.43 -0.57

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
85 Avery Hayes R +2.79 +1.50 +0.39 +0.92 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 10:09
81 Ben Kindel C +2.66 +1.50 +0.97 +0.25 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 — 17:27
18 Tommy Novak C +1.40 +0.75 +0.31 +0.38 0.00 -0.04 0.00 — 15:19
59 Egor Chinakhov R +1.36 +0.70 +0.17 +0.51 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:08
2 Rutger McGroarty R +1.30 +0.55 +0.02 +0.63 0.00 +0.02 +0.07 — 10:01
71 Evgeni Malkin C +1.28 +0.55 +0.44 +0.57 -0.30 0.00 +0.02 — 17:59
37 Arturs Silovs G +1.25 0.00 — — +0.19 — — +1.05 59:38
19 Connor Dewar C +1.24 +0.70 +0.39 +0.16 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 15:41
65 Erik Karlsson D +1.14 0.00 +0.05 +1.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 22:47
7 Ilya Solovyov D +1.08 +0.70 0.00 +0.38 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:08
28 Parker Wotherspoon D +0.82 +0.55 0.00 +0.21 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 23:37
75 Connor Clifton D +0.82 0.00 +0.01 +0.61 +0.11 0.00 +0.10 — 17:19
13 Kevin Hayes R +0.65 0.00 +0.03 +0.65 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 — 7:07
39 Anthony Mantha R +0.53 +0.70 +0.12 -0.14 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 16:30
5 Ryan Shea D +0.40 0.00 +0.11 +0.53 -0.15 0.00 -0.08 — 19:29
16 Justin Brazeau R +0.30 0.00 +0.13 +0.19 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 11:11
87 Sidney Crosby C +0.28 0.00 +0.28 +0.13 -0.15 +0.01 0.00 — 20:05
77 Brett Kulak D +0.18 0.00 0.00 +0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 18:44
17 Bryan Rust R +0.16 0.00 +0.04 -0.17 +0.15 0.00 +0.13 — 23:31

Buffalo Sabres

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
72 Tage Thompson C +1.19 +0.75 +0.48 -0.02 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 23:18
26 Rasmus Dahlin D +0.51 +0.55 +0.05 -0.24 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 26:32
22 Jack Quinn R +0.33 +0.70 +0.31 -0.69 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:24
89 Alex Tuch R +0.32 0.00 +0.23 +0.26 -0.15 -0.01 0.00 — 20:53
71 Ryan McLeod C +0.23 +0.70 +0.05 -0.61 0.00 +0.03 +0.06 — 20:01
17 Jason Zucker L +0.17 +0.75 +0.02 -0.74 +0.15 +0.03 -0.04 — 18:48
19 Peyton Krebs C +0.10 0.00 +0.10 +0.14 -0.15 +0.01 0.00 — 10:40
25 Owen Power D -0.04 0.00 +0.14 -0.76 +0.45 0.00 +0.13 — 25:12
8 Michael Kesselring D -0.10 0.00 0.00 +0.09 -0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 7:56
29 Beck Malenstyn L -0.11 0.00 +0.15 -0.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:10
4 Bowen Byram D -0.12 +0.55 +0.12 -0.90 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 26:00
86 Noah Ostlund C -0.20 0.00 +0.01 -0.33 0.00 +0.03 +0.10 — 12:23
48 Tyson Kozak C -0.36 0.00 +0.02 -0.44 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 10:38
78 Jacob Bryson D -0.43 0.00 0.00 -0.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 4:19
63 Isak Rosen R -0.44 0.00 +0.07 -0.49 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 10:36
23 Mattias Samuelsson D -0.44 0.00 0.00 -0.42 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 22:42
91 Josh Doan R -0.48 0.00 +0.23 -0.66 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 18:35
34 Alex Lyon G -0.57 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.57 56:51
94 Konsta Helenius C -0.58 0.00 0.00 -0.57 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 8:02

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.