Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 1–5 Final Florida PanthersFLA

Thursday, February 26, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR	0	0	1	1	30
Florida PanthersFLA	3	0	2	5	37

Playoff odds, %	Change
FLA	+1.8
TOR	-1.6

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Feb 26, 2026 6:49 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
3:18	FLA	Brad Marchand (26) Anton Lundell (25) · wrist xG 0.34	0–1 ▶
5:13	FLA	Carter Verhaeghe (17)PP Evan Rodrigues (16), Anton Lundell (26) · wrist xG 0.13	0–2 ▶
16:40	FLA	Evan Rodrigues (11)SH Unassisted · wrist xG 0.21	0–3 ▶
2nd Period
No scoring
3rd Period
0:47	TOR	John Tavares (22)PP Auston Matthews (24), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (27) · wrist xG 0.18	1–3 ▶
16:51	FLA	Brad Marchand (27)EN Unassisted · snap xG 0.29	1–4 ▶
18:08	FLA	Matthew Tkachuk (4)EN Sam Bennett (24), Sam Reinhart (29) · wrist xG 0.56	1–5 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TOR 27%Deserve to win73% FLA

TOR		FLA
2.38	Expected goals	5.47
1	Goals (no shootout)	5
1.71	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.88
51	Shot attempts	66
41	Unblocked attempts	53
30	Shots on goal	37

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
12:50	FLA	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced TOR 1.17–0.15 In xG over 10 minutes, 3:00 to 13:00 of the 1st; goals 2–0
3rd Period
16:00	FLA	No shift	No shift · Schwindt, 12:04 on the bench No shift after 3:40 of the 3rd; 11 shifts (7:23) before that
16:19	TOR	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Woll, down 3–1 With 3:41 left; FLA scored at 16:51 of the 3rd (1–4)
17:47	TOR	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Woll, down 4–1 With 2:13 left; FLA scored at 18:08 of the 3rd (1–5)

Shot map

TOR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ FLA shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Toronto Maple Leafs

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
91	John Tavares	1	0	1	-3	4	0.38	0	0	18:38
34	Auston Matthews	0	1	1	-4	3	0.16	1	1	18:34
88	William Nylander	0	0	0	-3	2	0.23	0	1	18:11
89	Matthew Knies	0	0	0	-4	5	0.43	1	0	17:17
63	Matias Maccelli	0	0	0	-1	4	0.37	0	0	15:09
10	Nicolas Roy	0	0	0	0	3	0.10	2	3	15:01
21	Scott Laughton	0	0	0	0	2	0.04	1	1	14:25
74	Bobby McMann	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	2	0	14:05
11	Max Domi	0	0	0	-2	3	0.03	2	0	13:54
18	Steven Lorentz	0	0	0	0	2	0.18	1	1	13:45
14	Nick Robertson	0	0	0	0	4	0.11	0	0	12:01
81	Dakota Joshua	0	0	0	0	1	0.07	3	0	11:01
Defense
28	Troy Stecher	0	0	0	0	4	0.02	0	1	21:14
95	Oliver Ekman-Larsson	0	1	1	-3	3	0.02	0	3	20:56
22	Jake McCabe	0	0	0	-1	3	0.05	2	0	20:44
44	Morgan Rielly	0	0	0	-1	5	0.05	1	0	19:11
25	Brandon Carlo	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	0	16:53
44	Simon Benoit	0	0	0	0	1	0.12	3	1	14:18

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Joseph Woll	35	3	32	.914	3.83	+0.83

Florida Panthers

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
9	Sam Bennett	0	1	1	+1	5	0.33	0	0	18:41
19	Matthew Tkachuk	1	0	1	+1	9	1.00	1	0	18:26
13	Sam Reinhart	0	1	1	+2	3	0.41	1	0	18:01
17	Evan Rodrigues	1	1	2	+1	11	0.91	1	0	16:52
15	Anton Lundell	0	2	2	+2	3	0.04	2	1	16:18
27	Eetu Luostarinen	0	0	0	+2	4	0.22	1	2	16:04
11	Mackie Samoskevich	0	0	0	0	5	0.20	2	0	14:12
63	Brad Marchand	2	0	2	+2	6	1.50	0	0	14:10
23	Carter Verhaeghe	1	0	1	0	3	0.27	0	1	14:03
18	A.J. Greer	0	0	0	0	3	0.21	2	0	12:05
95	Sandis Vilmanis	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	1	11:13
79	Cole Schwindt	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	07:23
Defense
42	Gustav Forsling	0	0	0	+3	3	0.06	1	2	22:56
77	Niko Mikkola	0	0	0	+2	2	0.00	1	1	21:06
26	Uvis Balinskis	0	0	0	+2	2	0.02	0	0	20:13
5	Aaron Ekblad	0	0	0	+1	2	0.01	2	0	19:06
2	Jeff Petry	0	0	0	0	3	0.27	0	1	17:48
73	Donovan Sebrango	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	1	0	15:25

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Sergei Bobrovsky	30	1	29	.967	2.38	+1.38

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
60 Joseph Woll G	+0.83	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.83	59:07
91 John Tavares C	+0.68	+0.75	+0.25	-0.31	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	18:38
34 Auston Matthews C	+0.29	+0.70	+0.10	-0.58	0.00	+0.01	+0.05	—	18:34
23 Matthew Knies L	+0.07	0.00	+0.28	-0.30	+0.15	0.00	-0.06	—	17:17
88 William Nylander R	-0.03	0.00	+0.15	-0.17	0.00	-0.01	+0.01	—	18:11
18 Steven Lorentz C	-0.03	0.00	+0.12	-0.20	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	13:45
44 Morgan Rielly D	-0.05	0.00	+0.03	-0.08	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	19:11
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D	-0.06	+0.55	+0.02	-0.75	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	20:56
24 Scott Laughton C	-0.17	0.00	+0.02	-0.24	0.00	+0.02	+0.03	—	14:25
2 Simon Benoit D	-0.22	0.00	+0.08	-0.50	+0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	14:18
55 Nicolas Roy C	-0.24	0.00	+0.06	-0.22	-0.15	-0.06	+0.13	—	15:01
74 Bobby McMann C	-0.26	0.00	+0.01	-0.24	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	14:05
89 Nick Robertson L	-0.27	0.00	+0.07	-0.36	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	12:01
25 Brandon Carlo D	-0.30	0.00	0.00	-0.30	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	16:53
28 Troy Stecher D	-0.32	0.00	+0.01	-0.37	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	21:14
81 Dakota Joshua C	-0.37	0.00	+0.05	-0.42	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	11:01
63 Matias Maccelli L	-0.44	0.00	+0.24	-0.66	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	15:09
11 Max Domi C	-0.61	0.00	+0.02	-0.63	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:54
22 Jake McCabe D	-0.99	0.00	+0.03	-0.85	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	20:44

Florida Panthers

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
17 Evan Rodrigues C	+2.94	+1.45	+0.59	+0.87	0.00	+0.01	+0.02	—	16:52
63 Brad Marchand L	+2.93	+1.50	+0.97	+0.48	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	14:10
19 Matthew Tkachuk L	+2.22	+0.75	+0.65	+0.74	+0.15	0.00	-0.06	—	18:26
23 Carter Verhaeghe C	+2.01	+0.75	+0.18	+1.03	0.00	+0.01	+0.05	—	14:03
13 Sam Reinhart C	+1.76	+0.55	+0.27	+0.95	0.00	+0.01	-0.02	—	18:01
9 Sam Bennett C	+1.66	+0.70	+0.22	+0.71	0.00	+0.08	-0.04	—	18:41
15 Anton Lundell C	+1.57	+1.25	+0.02	+0.29	0.00	-0.04	+0.05	—	16:18
72 Sergei Bobrovsky G	+1.38	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.38	60:00
26 Uvis Balinskis D	+0.85	0.00	+0.01	+0.85	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	20:13
77 Niko Mikkola D	+0.71	0.00	0.00	+0.66	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	21:06
2 Jeff Petry D	+0.60	0.00	+0.18	+0.42	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	17:48
27 Eetu Luostarinen C	+0.57	0.00	+0.14	+0.34	0.00	-0.01	+0.10	—	16:04
42 Gustav Forsling D	+0.55	0.00	+0.04	+0.41	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	22:56
11 Mackie Samoskevich R	+0.46	0.00	+0.13	+0.48	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	14:12
6 Donovan Sebrango D	+0.38	0.00	+0.02	+0.36	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	15:25
5 Aaron Ekblad D	0.00	0.00	+0.01	+0.17	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	19:06
79 Cole Schwindt R	-0.21	0.00	0.00	-0.26	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	7:23
95 Sandis Vilmanis L	-0.40	0.00	0.00	-0.60	+0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	11:13
10 A.J. Greer L	-0.46	0.00	+0.14	-0.60	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	12:05

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.