Tampa Bay LightningTBL 4–5 Final Carolina HurricanesCAR

Thursday, February 26, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Tampa Bay LightningTBL	2	2	0	4	28
Carolina HurricanesCAR	3	1	1	5	33

Playoff odds, %	Change
CAR	+0.1
TBL	-0.0

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Feb 26, 2026 6:49 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
1:43	CAR	Nikolaj Ehlers (15) K'Andre Miller (20), Jordan Martinook (12) · snap xG 0.08	0–1 ▶
2:56	CAR	Logan Stankoven (11) Taylor Hall (16), Jalen Chatfield (13) · snap xG 0.19	0–2 ▶
6:41	CAR	Taylor Hall (13) Jackson Blake (18), Logan Stankoven (16) · wrist xG 0.16	0–3 ▶
16:30	TBL	Brandon Hagel (28) Scott Sabourin (3), Jake Guentzel (35) · snap xG 0.13	1–3 ▶
17:05	TBL	Nikita Kucherov (31) Brayden Point (21), J.J. Moser (15) · snap xG 0.13	2–3 ▶
2nd Period
1:58	TBL	Dominic James (6) Jake Guentzel (36), Ryan McDonagh (7) · snap xG 0.18	3–3 ▶
7:21	CAR	Seth Jarvis (26) Andrei Svechnikov (29), Mark Jankowski (9) · wrist xG 0.15	3–4 ▶
14:02	TBL	Brayden Point (14)PP Jake Guentzel (37), Darren Raddysh (36) · snap xG 0.17	4–4 ▶
3rd Period
7:17	CAR	Sebastian Aho (21)PP Seth Jarvis (19), Andrei Svechnikov (30) · slap xG 0.05	4–5 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TBL 64%Deserve to win36% CAR

TBL		CAR
3.34	Expected goals	2.76
4	Goals (no shootout)	5
2.29	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.10
57	Shot attempts	62
40	Unblocked attempts	41
28	Shots on goal	33

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
6:41	TBL	Goalie	Goalie · Johansson −2.3 goals saved 3 goals on 0.67 xG, 7 shots on goal
2nd Period
14:02	TBL	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · TBL takes the lead, 61–39% CAR had led since 2:56 of the 1st, by as much as 73%
20:00	TBL	No shift	No shift · Sabourin, 11:41 on the bench No shift from 7:21 of the 2nd to 1:37 of the 3rd; 6 shifts (3:17) before that
3rd Period
17:03	TBL	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Johansson, down 5–4 With 2:57 left

Shot map

TBL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ CAR shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Tampa Bay Lightning

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
86	Nikita Kucherov	1	0	1	0	8	0.28	0	1	25:07
21	Brayden Point	1	1	2	0	4	0.56	1	0	22:06
59	Jake Guentzel	0	3	3	+1	9	0.66	1	1	22:03
38	Brandon Hagel	1	0	1	0	3	0.20	0	1	20:42
17	Dominic James	1	0	1	0	6	0.65	0	0	16:55
37	Yanni Gourde	0	0	0	-2	4	0.23	4	0	16:04
93	Gage Goncalves	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	1	0	14:55
28	Zemgus Girgensons	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	2	1	14:53
29	Pontus Holmberg	0	0	0	-1	2	0.19	1	0	14:01
28	Oliver Bjorkstrand	0	0	0	0	1	0.07	0	4	13:01
49	Scott Sabourin	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	2	0	05:00
Defense
43	Darren Raddysh	0	1	1	-1	5	0.17	0	5	26:01
90	J.J. Moser	0	1	1	0	3	0.02	1	0	19:42
27	Ryan McDonagh	0	1	1	+2	5	0.20	0	0	15:43
81	Erik Cernak	0	0	0	+2	2	0.07	0	1	15:26
77	Victor Hedman	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	3	14:21
51	Charle-Edouard D'Astous	0	0	0	-3	1	0.00	0	2	13:19
72	Declan Carlile	0	0	0	-1	1	0.03	2	1	11:04

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Jonas Johansson	33	5	28	.848	2.51	-2.49

Carolina Hurricanes

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
20	Sebastian Aho	1	0	1	0	4	0.25	0	0	19:43
37	Andrei Svechnikov	0	2	2	+1	6	0.40	1	2	18:36
24	Seth Jarvis	1	1	2	+1	5	0.36	0	0	18:21
53	Jackson Blake	0	1	1	+1	1	0.03	1	0	17:48
22	Logan Stankoven	1	1	2	+1	2	0.22	2	0	16:02
71	Taylor Hall	1	1	2	+2	3	0.32	1	0	16:01
11	Jordan Staal	0	0	0	0	3	0.13	3	1	15:19
27	Nikolaj Ehlers	1	0	1	-1	5	0.25	0	0	14:58
48	Jordan Martinook	0	1	1	0	2	0.00	1	0	14:31
28	William Carrier	0	0	0	-1	4	0.34	0	1	09:50
77	Mark Jankowski	0	0	0	0	3	0.10	0	1	09:45
50	Eric Robinson	0	0	0	-1	5	0.11	1	0	09:20
Defense
74	Jaccob Slavin	0	0	0	+1	5	0.01	1	2	23:31
19	K'Andre Miller	0	1	1	0	2	0.03	5	3	20:42
5	Jalen Chatfield	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	0	0	20:17
4	Shayne Gostisbehere	0	0	0	0	4	0.06	3	0	18:45
26	Sean Walker	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	3	2	18:12
21	Alexander Nikishin	0	0	0	0	6	0.16	1	4	16:13

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Brandon Bussi	28	4	24	.857	3.34	-0.66

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
59 Jake Guentzel C	+3.21	+1.95	+0.43	+0.76	0.00	+0.02	+0.05	—	22:03
17 Dominic James C	+2.09	+0.75	+0.42	+0.80	0.00	+0.07	+0.04	—	16:55
27 Ryan McDonagh D	+1.96	+0.55	+0.13	+1.34	0.00	0.00	-0.06	—	15:43
21 Brayden Point C	+1.81	+1.45	+0.36	-0.02	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	22:06
38 Brandon Hagel L	+1.39	+0.75	+0.13	+0.45	0.00	-0.01	+0.07	—	20:42
81 Erik Cernak D	+1.39	0.00	+0.05	+1.31	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	15:26
86 Nikita Kucherov R	+0.90	+0.75	+0.18	-0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	—	25:07
90 J.J. Moser D	+0.59	+0.55	+0.01	+0.09	0.00	0.00	-0.06	—	19:42
43 Darren Raddysh D	+0.54	+0.55	+0.11	-0.35	0.00	0.00	+0.23	—	26:01
46 Scott Sabourin R	+0.44	+0.70	0.00	-0.26	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	5:00
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R	+0.39	0.00	+0.05	+0.14	0.00	0.00	+0.20	—	13:01
67 Declan Carlile D	-0.03	0.00	+0.02	-0.23	+0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	11:04
29 Pontus Holmberg R	-0.03	0.00	+0.12	-0.16	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	14:01
28 Zemgus Girgensons C	-0.24	0.00	0.00	-0.28	0.00	-0.01	+0.05	—	14:53
77 Victor Hedman D	-0.27	0.00	0.00	-0.40	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	14:21
37 Yanni Gourde C	-0.64	0.00	+0.15	-0.77	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	16:04
93 Gage Goncalves C	-0.66	0.00	+0.01	-0.48	-0.15	0.00	-0.04	—	14:55
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D	-1.58	0.00	0.00	-1.64	0.00	0.00	+0.06	—	13:19
31 Jonas Johansson G	-2.49	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-2.49	57:03

Carolina Hurricanes

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
71 Taylor Hall L	+2.06	+1.45	+0.21	+0.42	0.00	+0.01	-0.02	—	16:01
37 Andrei Svechnikov R	+2.04	+1.25	+0.26	+0.34	+0.15	0.00	+0.04	—	18:36
24 Seth Jarvis C	+1.88	+1.45	+0.23	+0.20	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	18:21
22 Logan Stankoven C	+1.70	+1.30	+0.14	+0.26	0.00	-0.02	+0.02	—	16:02
5 Jalen Chatfield D	+0.76	+0.55	0.00	+0.23	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	20:17
77 Mark Jankowski L	+0.76	+0.55	+0.06	+0.10	0.00	+0.02	+0.03	—	9:45
19 K'Andre Miller D	+0.75	+0.70	+0.02	-0.24	+0.15	0.00	+0.11	—	20:42
20 Sebastian Aho C	+0.59	+0.75	+0.16	-0.16	-0.15	-0.02	0.00	—	19:43
53 Jackson Blake R	+0.40	+0.70	+0.02	-0.15	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	17:48
74 Jaccob Slavin D	+0.39	0.00	+0.01	+0.28	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	23:31
50 Eric Robinson L	+0.31	0.00	+0.07	+0.26	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	9:20
28 William Carrier L	+0.28	0.00	+0.22	+0.02	0.00	-0.01	+0.05	—	9:50
21 Alexander Nikishin D	+0.24	0.00	+0.11	-0.07	0.00	0.00	+0.20	—	16:13
48 Jordan Martinook L	+0.18	+0.55	0.00	-0.37	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	14:31
4 Shayne Gostisbehere D	+0.09	0.00	+0.04	+0.03	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	18:45
27 Nikolaj Ehlers L	+0.04	+0.75	+0.16	-0.83	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	14:58
11 Jordan Staal C	-0.19	0.00	+0.08	-0.26	0.00	-0.05	+0.03	—	15:19
26 Sean Walker D	-0.25	0.00	0.00	-0.35	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	18:12
32 Brandon Bussi G	-0.66	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.66	60:00

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.