Buffalo SabresBUF 3–2 Final Florida PanthersFLA

Friday, February 27, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Buffalo SabresBUF	1	0	2	3	39
Florida PanthersFLA	0	1	1	2	29

Playoff odds, %	Change
BUF	+3.7
FLA	-2.8

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Feb 27, 2026 7:04 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
17:48	BUF	Alex Tuch (23)PP Ryan McLeod (31), Bowen Byram (20) · snap xG 0.16	1–0 ▶
2nd Period
13:51	FLA	Matthew Tkachuk (5)PP Brad Marchand (26), Sam Bennett (25) · snap xG 0.23	1–1 ▶
3rd Period
11:38	BUF	Beck Malenstyn (5) Josh Norris (12), Noah Ostlund (10) · slap xG 0.03	2–1 ▶
18:43	BUF	Peyton Krebs (9)EN Tage Thompson (31), Alex Tuch (27) · wrist xG 0.54	3–1 ▶
19:25	FLA	Sam Bennett (20) Unassisted · xG 0.68	3–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

BUF 43%Deserve to win57% FLA

BUF		FLA
4.30	Expected goals	4.09
3	Goals (no shootout)	2
3.07	Expected goals, 5 on 5	1.64
70	Shot attempts	66
53	Unblocked attempts	48
39	Shots on goal	29

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
11:17	BUF	Goalie	Goalie · Lyon +2.1 goals saved 0 goals on 2.11 xG, 18 shots on goal
15:10	FLA	No shift	No shift · Balinskis, 27:05 on the bench No shift after 2:54 of the 2nd; 12 shifts (8:38) before that
3rd Period
0:42	FLA	Goalie	Goalie · Tarasov +2.0 goals saved 1 goal on 3.04 xG, 29 shots on goal
0:48	BUF	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · BUF takes the lead, 61–39% FLA had led since 2:39 of the 1st, by as much as 78%
1:20	BUF	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced FLA 1.91–0.32 In xG over 10 minutes, 11:50 of the 2nd to 1:50 of the 3rd; goals 0–1
17:57	FLA	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Tarasov, down 2–1 With 2:03 left; BUF scored at 18:43 of the 3rd (3–1)
19:27	FLA	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Tarasov, down 3–2 With 0:33 left

Shot map

BUF shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ FLA shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Buffalo Sabres

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
72	Tage Thompson	0	1	1	+1	7	0.22	0	1	19:39
89	Alex Tuch	1	1	2	+1	10	0.64	1	3	19:23
9	Josh Norris	0	1	1	0	4	0.27	0	0	17:46
91	Josh Doan	0	0	0	-1	3	0.39	3	1	16:23
71	Ryan McLeod	0	1	1	0	2	0.18	0	0	15:58
17	Jason Zucker	0	0	0	0	4	0.44	1	0	15:52
19	Peyton Krebs	1	0	1	+1	3	0.58	1	0	14:37
22	Jack Quinn	0	0	0	0	3	0.28	0	0	14:35
86	Noah Ostlund	0	1	1	0	3	0.22	0	0	14:23
29	Beck Malenstyn	1	0	1	+1	4	0.11	1	1	10:57
48	Tyson Kozak	0	0	0	0	1	0.05	2	3	10:45
44	Josh Dunne	0	0	0	0	2	0.06	1	0	08:54
Defense
26	Rasmus Dahlin	0	0	0	+1	6	0.15	0	0	25:04
25	Owen Power	0	0	0	0	3	0.08	0	4	23:46
24	Bowen Byram	0	1	1	0	4	0.03	1	1	23:42
23	Mattias Samuelsson	0	0	0	+1	5	0.48	3	2	23:42
7	Michael Kesselring	0	0	0	0	3	0.08	0	2	12:19
73	Zach Metsa	0	0	0	0	3	0.06	0	0	06:13

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Alex Lyon	29	2	28	.966	4.09	+2.09

Florida Panthers

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
13	Sam Reinhart	0	0	0	-1	3	0.28	0	0	22:24
19	Matthew Tkachuk	1	0	1	0	8	0.85	0	0	21:34
9	Sam Bennett	1	1	2	0	6	0.84	0	0	21:19
17	Evan Rodrigues	0	0	0	-1	1	0.07	1	1	17:36
23	Carter Verhaeghe	0	0	0	-2	3	0.11	2	0	17:21
15	Anton Lundell	0	0	0	+1	2	0.02	2	1	16:43
63	Brad Marchand	0	1	1	0	9	0.48	0	0	16:10
27	Eetu Luostarinen	0	0	0	0	2	0.10	0	2	15:09
11	Mackie Samoskevich	0	0	0	0	2	0.06	1	2	12:49
18	A.J. Greer	0	0	0	0	3	0.36	1	0	08:21
95	Sandis Vilmanis	0	0	0	0	5	0.23	1	0	07:52
71	Luke Kunin	0	0	0	0	2	0.27	2	2	06:43
Defense
5	Aaron Ekblad	0	0	0	0	7	0.13	4	1	27:18
77	Niko Mikkola	0	0	0	-1	1	0.01	0	2	25:29
42	Gustav Forsling	0	0	0	0	5	0.14	0	3	23:51
2	Jeff Petry	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	3	0	16:24
73	Donovan Sebrango	0	0	0	-1	2	0.00	3	1	10:23
26	Uvis Balinskis	0	0	0	0	3	0.12	0	1	08:38

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Daniil Tarasov	38	2	36	.947	3.67	+1.67

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Buffalo Sabres

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
4 Bowen Byram D	+2.32	+0.55	+0.02	+1.70	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	23:42
89 Alex Tuch R	+2.21	+1.30	+0.42	+0.36	0.00	-0.01	+0.15	—	19:23
19 Peyton Krebs C	+2.18	+0.75	+0.37	+1.00	0.00	+0.01	+0.04	—	14:37
34 Alex Lyon G	+2.09	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+2.09	60:00
23 Mattias Samuelsson D	+1.83	0.00	+0.31	+1.46	0.00	0.00	+0.06	—	23:42
9 Josh Norris C	+1.67	+0.70	+0.17	+0.83	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	17:46
71 Ryan McLeod C	+1.55	+0.70	+0.11	+0.76	0.00	-0.05	+0.02	—	15:58
86 Noah Ostlund C	+1.34	+0.55	+0.14	+0.66	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	14:23
91 Josh Doan R	+1.14	0.00	+0.25	+0.67	+0.15	0.00	+0.07	—	16:23
72 Tage Thompson C	+1.08	+0.70	+0.15	+0.27	0.00	-0.07	+0.03	—	19:39
22 Jack Quinn R	+0.99	0.00	+0.18	+0.85	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	14:35
29 Beck Malenstyn L	+0.74	+0.75	+0.07	+0.04	-0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	10:57
26 Rasmus Dahlin D	+0.44	0.00	+0.10	+0.32	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	25:04
17 Jason Zucker L	+0.42	0.00	+0.29	+0.19	0.00	0.00	-0.06	—	15:52
25 Owen Power D	+0.39	0.00	+0.05	+0.14	0.00	0.00	+0.20	—	23:46
73 Zach Metsa D	+0.06	0.00	+0.04	+0.04	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	6:13
48 Tyson Kozak C	-0.01	0.00	+0.03	-0.14	0.00	-0.05	+0.15	—	10:45
44 Josh Dunne C	-0.09	0.00	+0.04	-0.13	0.00	+0.02	-0.02	—	8:54
8 Michael Kesselring D	-0.40	0.00	+0.05	-0.40	-0.15	0.00	+0.10	—	12:19

Florida Panthers

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
40 Daniil Tarasov G	+1.67	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.67	58:05
9 Sam Bennett C	+1.19	+1.30	+0.54	-0.84	+0.15	+0.04	0.00	—	21:19
10 A.J. Greer L	+0.91	0.00	+0.23	+0.83	-0.15	-0.01	0.00	—	8:21
95 Sandis Vilmanis L	+0.76	0.00	+0.15	+0.63	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	7:52
63 Brad Marchand L	+0.74	+0.70	+0.31	-0.26	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	16:10
71 Luke Kunin C	+0.67	0.00	+0.17	+0.34	0.00	+0.05	+0.10	—	6:43
27 Eetu Luostarinen C	+0.49	0.00	+0.06	+0.34	0.00	-0.01	+0.10	—	15:09
19 Matthew Tkachuk L	+0.42	+0.75	+0.55	-0.84	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	21:34
6 Donovan Sebrango D	+0.09	0.00	0.00	-0.11	+0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	10:23
26 Uvis Balinskis D	-0.03	0.00	+0.08	-0.14	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	8:38
11 Mackie Samoskevich R	-0.16	0.00	+0.04	-0.30	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	12:49
2 Jeff Petry D	-0.18	0.00	0.00	-0.14	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	16:24
15 Anton Lundell C	-0.38	0.00	+0.02	-0.44	0.00	+0.01	+0.03	—	16:43
77 Niko Mikkola D	-0.61	0.00	+0.01	-0.68	0.00	0.00	+0.06	—	25:29
5 Aaron Ekblad D	-0.70	0.00	+0.09	-1.00	+0.15	0.00	+0.07	—	27:18
17 Evan Rodrigues C	-1.14	0.00	+0.05	-1.34	0.00	+0.10	+0.05	—	17:36
42 Gustav Forsling D	-1.30	0.00	+0.09	-1.38	-0.15	0.00	+0.13	—	23:51
13 Sam Reinhart C	-1.35	0.00	+0.19	-1.51	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	22:24
23 Carter Verhaeghe C	-1.73	0.00	+0.07	-1.78	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	17:21

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.