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New York IslandersNYI 4–3 Final/OT Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ

Saturday, February 28, 2026

Final/OT 1st2nd3rdOT T SOG
New York IslandersNYI 0301 4 27
Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ 1200 3 30
Playoff odds, % Change
CBJ -8.4
NYI +7.9

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Feb 28, 2026 5:53 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
2:30 CBJ Isac Lundeström (3) Dante Fabbro (5), Miles Wood (6) · tip-in xG 0.09 0–1 ▶
2nd Period
3:58 CBJ Mason Marchment (14) Charlie Coyle (28), Zach Werenski (44) · wrist xG 0.13 0–2 ▶
11:37 NYI Anders Lee (13) Scott Mayfield (8), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (13) · wrist xG 0.39 1–2 ▶
11:59 NYI Jean-Gabriel Pageau (14) Unassisted · tip-in xG 0.08 2–2 ▶
17:10 NYI Scott Mayfield (2) Mathew Barzal (36) · snap xG 0.01 3–2 ▶
18:58 CBJ Adam Fantilli (15) Zach Werenski (45) · tip-in xG 0.08 3–3 ▶
3rd Period
No scoring
Overtime
1:47 NYI Simon Holmstrom (14) Tony DeAngelo (22), Mathew Barzal (37) · wrist xG 0.43 4–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

NYI 52%Deserve to win48% CBJ
NYICBJ
2.60Expected goals2.53
4Goals (no shootout)3
2.02Expected goals, 5 on 52.53
66Shot attempts65
44Unblocked attempts44
27Shots on goal30

Shot map

NYI shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ CBJ shoots
Adam Pelech: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:36) Cole Sillinger: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:03) Miles Wood: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 2:24) Sean Monahan: tip-in, 24 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 3:01) Charlie Coyle: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 3:40) Ryan Pulock: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:01) Scott Mayfield: wrist, 73 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 5:20) Matthew Schaefer: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 7:01) Mason Marchment: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 7:52) Isac Lundeström: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 8:01) Sean Monahan: wrist, 81 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 8:55) Boone Jenner: tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 8:58) Zach Werenski: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 11:19) Marc Gatcomb: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 11:51) Zach Werenski: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 12:03) Ryan Pulock: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 12:38) Denton Mateychuk: deflected, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 12:52) Mathieu Olivier: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 13:09) Emil Heineman: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 17:07) Tony DeAngelo: snap, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:11) Tony DeAngelo: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:16) Emil Heineman: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:19) Jonathan Drouin: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 17:39) Zach Werenski: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:24) Ondrej Palat: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 0:41) Adam Pelech: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 0:49) Bo Horvat: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 0:59) Ryan Pulock: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:07) Scott Mayfield: snap, 69 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 2:17) Dante Fabbro: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:01) Mathieu Olivier: tip-in, 24 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:35) Mason Marchment: wrist, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:48) Adam Pelech: snap, 61 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 5:57) Damon Severson: wrist, 127 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 6:37) Adam Fantilli: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 7:30) Scott Mayfield: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 8:22) Denton Mateychuk: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 8:35) Danton Heinen: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 8:36) Danton Heinen: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 8:36) Isac Lundeström: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:39) Cole Sillinger: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 10:09) Cole Sillinger: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 10:11) Zach Werenski: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 10:17) Cole Sillinger: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 10:29) Damon Severson: snap, 54 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:35) Charlie Coyle: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 10:37) Scott Mayfield: backhand, 47 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 11:34) Boone Jenner: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 11:46) Jean-Gabriel Pageau: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:55) Matthew Schaefer: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 12:51) Mathew Barzal: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 14:51) Zach Werenski: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 16:20) Adam Pelech: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 16:36) Mason Marchment: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 16:53) Matthew Schaefer: snap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 18:08) Ondrej Palat: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 19:08) Bo Horvat: deflected, 15 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 1:02) Bo Horvat: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 1:03) Zach Werenski: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 3:07) Sean Monahan: backhand, 84 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 3:38) Ryan Pulock: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 4:22) Ondrej Palat: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 4:23) Ondrej Palat: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 4:24) Ondrej Palat: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 4:24) Kirill Marchenko: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 4:37) Mason Marchment: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 4:39) Matthew Schaefer: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 5:36) Ryan Pulock: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 5:48) Scott Mayfield: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 5:54) Adam Pelech: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 8:00) Emil Heineman: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 10:44) Matthew Schaefer: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 10:50) Dante Fabbro: snap, 54 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 12:18) Bo Horvat: deflected, 21 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 13:24) Marc Gatcomb: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 14:56) Boone Jenner: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 15:23) Zach Werenski: snap, 54 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 15:46) Boone Jenner: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 15:48) Kirill Marchenko: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 17:21) Adam Pelech: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 17:52) Zach Werenski: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 19:51) Isac Lundeström: GOAL, tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 2:30) Mason Marchment: GOAL, wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 3:58) Anders Lee: GOAL, wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.39 (P2 11:37) Jean-Gabriel Pageau: GOAL, tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 11:59) Scott Mayfield: GOAL, snap, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:10) Adam Fantilli: GOAL, tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 18:58) Simon Holmstrom: GOAL, wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.43 (OT 1:47)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

New York Islanders

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
14 Bo Horvat 000 0 50.29 0122:21
13 Mathew Barzal 022 0 20.11 0020:52
92 Jonathan Drouin 000 -1 20.05 0319:08
64 Calum Ritchie 000 -1 00.00 1217:14
51 Emil Heineman 000 -1 50.12 6117:01
81 Ondrej Palat 000 0 50.22 1116:24
92 Simon Holmstrom 101 +3 20.43 0216:01
44 Jean-Gabriel Pageau 112 +3 40.09 2114:21
72 Anders Lee 101 +2 10.39 0014:03
17 Marc Gatcomb 000 -1 30.21 2010:39
53 Casey Cizikas 000 -1 20.00 3009:56
32 Kyle MacLean 000 -1 00.00 1009:07
Defense
48 Matthew Schaefer 000 0 110.14 1125:31
77 Tony DeAngelo 011 0 20.01 0422:11
3 Adam Pelech 000 -1 80.10 1021:46
6 Ryan Pulock 000 -1 60.31 2319:35
7 Carson Soucy 000 +1 20.00 2014:52
24 Scott Mayfield 112 +2 60.13 0014:19
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Ilya Sorokin 30327 .900 2.53 -0.47

Columbus Blue Jackets

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
27 Mason Marchment 101 +1 50.29 4019:24
3 Charlie Coyle 011 +1 20.11 2118:55
19 Adam Fantilli 101 -2 40.11 4118:21
86 Kirill Marchenko 000 -2 30.17 1117:52
4 Cole Sillinger 000 -1 40.38 1016:34
24 Mathieu Olivier 000 +1 30.07 3116:08
23 Sean Monahan 000 -1 50.04 0015:22
22 Boone Jenner 000 -1 50.22 3215:21
58 Danton Heinen 000 -2 30.13 2114:07
21 Isac Lundeström 101 +1 30.20 1210:17
18 Miles Wood 011 +1 20.04 0008:37
10 Dmitri Voronkov 000 +1 20.00 4008:31
Defense
8 Zach Werenski 022 +1 120.41 2128:02
78 Damon Severson 000 +1 50.03 0326:11
9 Ivan Provorov 000 -1 00.00 0119:09
44 Erik Gudbranson 000 0 30.00 1118:44
5 Denton Mateychuk 000 -1 20.28 0215:06
15 Dante Fabbro 011 0 20.04 4314:40
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jet Greaves 27423 .852 2.60 -1.40

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

New York Islanders

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
24 Scott Mayfield D +1.94 +1.45 +0.09 +0.41 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:19
44 Jean-Gabriel Pageau C +1.87 +1.30 +0.06 +0.40 0.00 +0.04 +0.07 — 14:17
10 Simon Holmstrom R +1.57 +0.75 +0.28 +0.45 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 16:01
27 Anders Lee L +1.56 +0.75 +0.25 +0.61 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 14:03
13 Mathew Barzal C +1.11 +1.25 +0.07 -0.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 20:52
48 Matthew Schaefer D +0.75 0.00 +0.09 +0.53 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 25:31
77 Tony DeAngelo D +0.20 +0.70 +0.01 -0.69 0.00 0.00 +0.18 — 22:11
14 Bo Horvat C +0.04 0.00 +0.19 -0.21 0.00 +0.04 +0.01 — 22:21
6 Ryan Pulock D -0.03 0.00 +0.20 -0.38 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 19:35
81 Ondrej Palat L -0.04 0.00 +0.15 -0.23 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 16:28
51 Emil Heineman L -0.11 0.00 +0.08 -0.38 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 17:01
4 Carson Soucy D -0.17 0.00 0.00 -0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:52
53 Casey Cizikas C -0.18 0.00 0.00 -0.19 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 9:56
16 Marc Gatcomb C -0.26 0.00 +0.13 -0.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:39
32 Kyle MacLean C -0.26 0.00 0.00 -0.25 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 9:07
64 Calum Ritchie C -0.46 0.00 0.00 -0.56 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 17:14
30 Ilya Sorokin G -0.47 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.47 61:47
29 Jonathan Drouin L -0.57 0.00 +0.03 -0.72 0.00 -0.03 +0.15 — 19:08
3 Adam Pelech D -0.74 0.00 +0.07 -0.81 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 21:46

Columbus Blue Jackets

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
8 Zach Werenski D +2.63 +1.25 +0.27 +1.10 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 28:02
21 Isac Lundeström C +1.24 +0.75 +0.13 +0.29 0.00 -0.02 +0.10 — 10:17
15 Dante Fabbro D +1.24 +0.70 +0.02 +0.38 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 14:40
78 Damon Severson D +1.23 0.00 +0.02 +1.07 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 26:11
3 Charlie Coyle C +1.11 +0.70 +0.07 +0.33 0.00 -0.02 +0.03 — 18:55
17 Mason Marchment L +0.88 +0.75 +0.19 -0.02 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 19:24
11 Miles Wood L +0.75 +0.55 +0.03 +0.19 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 8:37
43 Danton Heinen L +0.50 0.00 +0.09 +0.36 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 14:07
24 Mathieu Olivier R +0.49 0.00 +0.05 +0.40 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 16:08
38 Boone Jenner C +0.45 0.00 +0.14 +0.38 -0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 15:21
23 Sean Monahan C +0.39 0.00 +0.02 +0.35 0.00 -0.01 +0.02 — 15:22
10 Dmitri Voronkov L +0.30 0.00 0.00 +0.32 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 8:31
19 Adam Fantilli C +0.29 +0.75 +0.07 -0.48 0.00 -0.02 -0.03 — 18:21
4 Cole Sillinger C +0.17 0.00 +0.25 -0.06 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:34
44 Erik Gudbranson D -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 18:44
86 Kirill Marchenko R -0.23 0.00 +0.11 -0.40 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 17:52
5 Denton Mateychuk D -0.27 0.00 +0.18 -0.53 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 15:06
9 Ivan Provorov D -0.84 0.00 0.00 -0.89 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 19:09
73 Jet Greaves G -1.40 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.40 61:47

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.