hockeystats.io

St. Louis BluesSTL 3–1 Final Minnesota WildMIN

Sunday, March 1, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
St. Louis BluesSTL 012 3 24
Minnesota WildMIN 010 1 23
Playoff odds, % Change
STL +0.0
MIN -0.0

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 1, 2026 4:42 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
16:09 MIN Kirill Kaprizov (34)PP Matt Boldy (34), Quinn Hughes (54) · tip-in xG 0.13 0–1 ▶
18:05 STL Logan Mailloux (2) Robert Thomas (23), Brayden Schenn (13) · snap xG 0.04 1–1 ▶
3rd Period
16:21 STL Pavel Buchnevich (14) Jimmy Snuggerud (15) · wrist xG 0.07 2–1 ▶
19:35 STL Robert Thomas (12)EN Pavel Buchnevich (24) · wrist xG 0.60 3–1 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

STL 35%Deserve to win65% MIN
STLMIN
2.69Expected goals2.49
3Goals (no shootout)1
1.37Expected goals, 5 on 51.77
51Shot attempts50
39Unblocked attempts41
24Shots on goal23

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
15:30 MIN No shift No shift · Pitlick, 13:17 on the bench
No shift from 3:12 to 19:35 of the 3rd; 8 shifts (6:39) before that
17:26 MIN Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Gustavsson, down 2–1
With 2:34 left
18:31 MIN Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Gustavsson, down 2–1
With 1:29 left; STL scored at 19:35 of the 3rd (3–1)

Shot map

STL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ MIN shoots
Mats Zuccarello: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 0:22) Quinn Hughes: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:35) Robert Thomas: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 2:55) Justin Faulk: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 3:35) Kirill Kaprizov: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 3:50) Logan Mailloux: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 5:29) Justin Faulk: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 6:24) Philip Broberg: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 6:27) Philip Broberg: slap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:57) Kirill Kaprizov: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 7:28) Mats Zuccarello: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 7:46) Matthew Kessel: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:32) Philip Broberg: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 11:12) Robert Thomas: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 11:30) Matt Boldy: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 12:18) Tyler Tucker: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:28) Logan Mailloux: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 14:57) Logan Mailloux: snap, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 15:03) Robert Thomas: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 15:10) Brock Faber: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 16:28) Brock Faber: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 16:35) Kirill Kaprizov: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 16:41) Pavel Buchnevich: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 17:22) Jimmy Snuggerud: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 18:23) Quinn Hughes: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 18:54) Mats Zuccarello: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 19:25) Joel Eriksson Ek: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 19:36) Quinn Hughes: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 19:59) Matt Boldy: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 0:33) Kirill Kaprizov: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 0:46) Joel Eriksson Ek: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 0:52) Danila Yurov: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 1:37) Yakov Trenin: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 1:59) Danila Yurov: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 2:21) Pius Suter: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:01) Dalibor Dvorsky: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 3:08) Dalibor Dvorsky: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:09) Dylan Holloway: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 3:14) Jared Spurgeon: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:42) Jordan Kyrou: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 3:59) Mats Zuccarello: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 4:19) Quinn Hughes: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 5:04) Jordan Kyrou: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 6:37) Yakov Trenin: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 7:20) Ryan Hartman: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 7:28) Zach Bogosian: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 8:17) Joel Eriksson Ek: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 8:37) Joel Eriksson Ek: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:55) Jimmy Snuggerud: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 9:18) Kirill Kaprizov: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 10:36) Ryan Hartman: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 11:13) Danila Yurov: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 13:56) Tyler Tucker: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:50) Pavel Buchnevich: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 15:40) Nico Sturm: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 18:29) Vinnie Hinostroza: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 18:49) Joel Eriksson Ek: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:11) Dylan Holloway: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 2:17) Tyler Tucker: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 3:03) Matt Boldy: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:49) Philip Broberg: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 4:16) Dylan Holloway: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 4:28) Jordan Kyrou: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 5:11) Jack Finley: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 5:34) Matthew Kessel: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:20) Zach Bogosian: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:39) Jared Spurgeon: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 9:43) Danila Yurov: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 9:49) Jake Neighbours: backhand, 18 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 11:05) Kirill Kaprizov: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:20) Jordan Kyrou: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:27) Robert Thomas: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 13:46) Brock Faber: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 14:17) Cam Fowler: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:11) Joel Hofer: wrist, 174 ft, xG 0.36 (P3 18:47) Vladimir Tarasenko: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 19:26) Kirill Kaprizov: GOAL, tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 16:09) Logan Mailloux: GOAL, snap, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 18:05) Pavel Buchnevich: GOAL, wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 16:21) Robert Thomas: GOAL, wrist, 73 ft, xG 0.60 (P3 19:35)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

St. Louis Blues

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
81 Dylan Holloway 000 0 30.32 2017:31
18 Robert Thomas 112 +3 60.78 0117:08
89 Pavel Buchnevich 112 +2 30.26 1017:07
10 Brayden Schenn 011 +1 00.00 2016:52
21 Jimmy Snuggerud 011 +2 30.06 2016:41
22 Pius Suter 000 +1 20.02 1216:30
25 Jordan Kyrou 000 0 60.24 0016:17
15 Dalibor Dvorsky 000 0 30.15 1015:21
63 Jake Neighbours 000 0 20.02 2013:34
70 Oskar Sundqvist 000 0 00.00 1011:08
13 Alexey Toropchenko 000 0 00.00 0010:52
37 Jack Finley 000 0 10.02 1009:38
Defense
6 Philip Broberg 000 0 50.23 0125:57
72 Justin Faulk 000 0 40.03 2125:28
23 Logan Mailloux 101 +2 40.12 3220:32
17 Cam Fowler 000 +2 30.01 0018:42
4 Matthew Kessel 000 +1 20.03 1014:31
75 Tyler Tucker 000 +1 30.04 0013:24
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Joel Hofer 23122 .957 2.49 +1.49

Minnesota Wild

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
97 Kirill Kaprizov 101 -1 90.39 0025:22
12 Matt Boldy 011 -1 50.11 1120:46
14 Joel Eriksson Ek 000 -1 50.26 3119:52
36 Mats Zuccarello 000 -1 40.27 0219:20
38 Ryan Hartman 000 -1 20.20 1216:38
13 Yakov Trenin 000 -2 20.13 3015:00
91 Vladimir Tarasenko 000 -1 10.16 0014:08
90 Marcus Johansson 000 0 10.00 0014:05
22 Danila Yurov 000 -2 40.39 1013:54
18 Vinnie Hinostroza 000 -1 10.01 0009:19
78 Nico Sturm 000 0 10.20 1009:05
19 Tyler Pitlick 000 0 10.00 2207:04
Defense
43 Quinn Hughes 011 -2 50.18 0027:57
7 Brock Faber 000 -1 40.05 0023:45
55 Jake Middleton 000 0 00.00 1118:39
46 Jared Spurgeon 000 0 20.07 0217:07
24 Zach Bogosian 000 -1 30.04 0014:00
48 Daemon Hunt 000 -1 00.00 0013:26
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Filip Gustavsson 23221 .913 1.73 -0.27

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

St. Louis Blues

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
18 Robert Thomas C +2.42 +1.45 +0.51 +0.58 -0.15 +0.02 +0.01 — 17:08
30 Joel Hofer G +1.49 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.49 60:00
21 Jimmy Snuggerud R +1.28 +0.70 +0.04 +0.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:41
89 Pavel Buchnevich L +1.24 +1.45 +0.17 -0.40 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 17:07
10 Brayden Schenn C +0.98 +0.55 0.00 +0.43 0.00 +0.02 -0.02 — 16:52
75 Tyler Tucker D +0.94 0.00 +0.03 +0.74 +0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 13:24
23 Logan Mailloux D +0.78 +0.75 +0.08 +0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.05 — 20:32
51 Matthew Kessel D +0.53 0.00 +0.02 +0.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:31
81 Dylan Holloway L +0.14 0.00 +0.21 -0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:31
22 Pius Suter C +0.13 0.00 +0.01 +0.08 0.00 -0.04 +0.08 — 16:30
17 Cam Fowler D +0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 18:42
54 Dalibor Dvorsky R +0.03 0.00 +0.10 -0.07 0.00 +0.02 -0.02 — 15:21
70 Oskar Sundqvist C -0.13 0.00 0.00 -0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:08
13 Alexey Toropchenko R -0.24 0.00 0.00 -0.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:52
37 Jack Finley C -0.27 0.00 +0.01 -0.08 -0.15 -0.03 -0.02 — 9:38
6 Philip Broberg D -0.45 0.00 +0.15 -0.63 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 25:57
25 Jordan Kyrou R -0.45 0.00 +0.16 -0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:17
63 Jake Neighbours L -0.48 0.00 +0.01 -0.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:34
72 Justin Faulk D -0.88 0.00 +0.02 -0.93 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 25:28

Minnesota Wild

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
97 Kirill Kaprizov L +1.90 +0.75 +0.26 +0.77 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 25:22
43 Quinn Hughes D +1.35 +0.55 +0.12 +0.76 0.00 0.00 -0.08 — 27:57
12 Matt Boldy L +0.84 +0.70 +0.07 +0.07 0.00 -0.03 +0.03 — 20:46
36 Mats Zuccarello R +0.68 0.00 +0.18 +0.39 0.00 +0.01 +0.10 — 19:20
7 Brock Faber D +0.65 0.00 +0.03 +0.64 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 23:45
38 Ryan Hartman R +0.58 0.00 +0.13 +0.34 0.00 +0.01 +0.10 — 16:38
14 Joel Eriksson Ek C +0.43 0.00 +0.17 +0.16 0.00 +0.03 +0.07 — 19:52
22 Danila Yurov R +0.22 0.00 +0.26 -0.02 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 13:54
46 Jared Spurgeon D +0.20 0.00 +0.05 -0.09 +0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 17:07
91 Vladimir Tarasenko R +0.12 0.00 +0.10 +0.03 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:08
90 Marcus Johansson L +0.11 0.00 0.00 +0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:05
5 Jake Middleton D -0.13 0.00 0.00 -0.14 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 18:39
19 Tyler Pitlick C -0.13 0.00 0.00 -0.23 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 7:04
13 Yakov Trenin C -0.20 0.00 +0.09 -0.24 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 15:00
32 Filip Gustavsson G -0.27 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.27 58:33
24 Zach Bogosian D -0.37 0.00 +0.03 -0.44 0.00 0.00 +0.04 — 14:00
78 Nico Sturm C -0.38 0.00 +0.13 -0.34 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 9:05
48 Daemon Hunt D -0.51 0.00 0.00 -0.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:26
18 Vinnie Hinostroza C -0.56 0.00 +0.01 -0.56 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 9:19

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.