Dallas StarsDAL 6–1 Final Vancouver CanucksVAN

Monday, March 2, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Dallas StarsDAL	1	2	3	6	37
Vancouver CanucksVAN	1	0	0	1	14

Playoff odds, %	Change
DAL	+0.0
VAN	+0.0

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 2, 2026 9:50 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
7:57	VAN	Evander Kane (11) Jake DeBrusk (16), Marcus Pettersson (11) · deflected xG 0.64	0–1 ▶
17:40	DAL	Adam Erne (4) Colin Blackwell (6) · snap xG 0.12	1–1 ▶
2nd Period
8:31	DAL	Lian Bichsel (2) Ilya Lyubushkin (7), Sam Steel (17) · snap xG 0.16	2–1 ▶
9:41	DAL	Jason Robertson (34)PP Matt Duchene (12), Miro Heiskanen (42) · slap xG 0.10	3–1 ▶
3rd Period
1:33	DAL	Matt Duchene (12) Sam Steel (18), Miro Heiskanen (43) · snap xG 0.11	4–1 ▶
5:40	DAL	Colin Blackwell (3) Unassisted · snap xG 0.16	5–1 ▶
15:41	DAL	Lian Bichsel (3) Mavrik Bourque (13), Jason Robertson (36) · snap xG 0.10	6–1 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

DAL 92%Deserve to win8% VAN

DAL		VAN
4.59	Expected goals	1.44
6	Goals (no shootout)	1
4.23	Expected goals, 5 on 5	1.23
69	Shot attempts	30
53	Unblocked attempts	21
37	Shots on goal	14

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
11:30	VAN	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced DAL 1.10–0.10 In xG over 10 minutes, 1:30 to 11:30 of the 1st; goals 1–0
2nd Period
8:31	DAL	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · DAL takes the lead, 63–37% VAN had led since 7:57 of the 1st, by as much as 80%
3rd Period
5:40	VAN	Goalie	Goalie · Tolopilo −2.4 goals saved 5 goals on 2.64 xG, 24 shots on goal
7:50	DAL	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced VAN 1.11–0.10 In xG over 10 minutes, 17:50 of the 2nd to 7:50 of the 3rd; goals 2–0
16:10	VAN	No shift	No shift · Joseph, 13:34 on the bench No shift after 2:51 of the 3rd; 13 shifts (10:38) before that
17:50	DAL	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced VAN 1.44–0.00 In xG over 10 minutes, 8:50 to 18:50 of the 3rd; goals 1–0

Shot map

DAL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ VAN shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Dallas Stars

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
21	Jason Robertson	1	1	2	0	5	0.29	0	0	19:00
53	Wyatt Johnston	0	0	0	0	3	0.38	3	0	17:57
22	Mavrik Bourque	0	1	1	0	4	0.33	1	0	17:15
18	Sam Steel	0	2	2	+2	7	0.87	2	0	14:56
95	Matt Duchene	1	1	2	+2	6	0.58	1	0	14:51
14	Jamie Benn	0	0	0	+2	1	0.09	2	0	14:11
10	Oskar Bäck	0	0	0	0	2	0.06	0	1	13:51
11	Nathan Bastian	0	0	0	0	1	0.15	6	0	13:50
49	Justin Hryckowian	0	0	0	+2	2	0.06	0	1	13:50
15	Colin Blackwell	1	1	2	+2	7	0.57	1	0	13:27
25	Arttu Hyry	0	0	0	0	3	0.19	1	0	13:19
73	Adam Erne	1	0	1	+2	3	0.19	1	0	11:03
Defense
55	Thomas Harley	0	0	0	+1	3	0.01	0	1	22:34
5	Nils Lundkvist	0	0	0	+1	5	0.22	0	0	21:26
4	Miro Heiskanen	0	2	2	+2	6	0.23	0	1	20:17
23	Esa Lindell	0	0	0	+1	3	0.03	0	2	19:58
46	Ilya Lyubushkin	0	1	1	+1	2	0.03	0	2	17:26
6	Lian Bichsel	2	0	2	+2	6	0.32	1	0	16:49

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Jake Oettinger	14	1	13	.929	1.44	+0.44

Vancouver Canucks

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
40	Elias Pettersson	0	0	0	+1	3	0.01	2	1	19:22
91	Evander Kane	1	0	1	+1	5	0.71	1	1	17:22
74	Jake DeBrusk	0	1	1	0	2	0.15	1	0	16:56
73	Teddy Blueger	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	2	0	16:13
83	Conor Garland	0	0	0	0	3	0.05	1	2	15:58
6	Brock Boeser	0	0	0	-3	2	0.00	1	0	15:51
92	Liam Ohgren	0	0	0	-1	2	0.06	0	1	14:49
23	Marco Rossi	0	0	0	-3	3	0.16	0	1	13:43
64	David Kampf	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	2	1	13:14
18	Drew O'Connor	0	0	0	-3	2	0.09	1	0	12:54
94	Linus Karlsson	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	2	0	11:46
21	Nils Hoglander	0	0	0	-1	3	0.10	1	0	11:06
Defense
26	Marcus Pettersson	0	1	1	-3	1	0.01	0	2	23:43
5	Tom Willander	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	0	2	22:33
17	Filip Hronek	0	0	0	-1	3	0.10	2	2	21:02
25	Elias Pettersson	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	0	20:02
8	Zeev Buium	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	1	19:57
7	Pierre-Olivier Joseph	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	10:36

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Nikita Tolopilo	37	6	31	.838	4.59	-1.41

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Dallas Stars

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
95 Matt Duchene C	+4.16	+1.45	+0.38	+2.39	0.00	-0.01	-0.04	—	14:51
18 Sam Steel C	+3.95	+1.25	+0.57	+2.14	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	14:56
15 Colin Blackwell C	+3.37	+1.45	+0.37	+1.51	0.00	-0.01	+0.04	—	13:27
4 Miro Heiskanen D	+3.02	+1.10	+0.15	+1.70	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	20:17
6 Lian Bichsel D	+2.79	+1.50	+0.21	+1.08	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	16:49
21 Jason Robertson L	+1.98	+1.30	+0.19	+0.51	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	19:00
73 Adam Erne L	+1.82	+0.75	+0.12	+0.97	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	11:03
46 Ilya Lyubushkin D	+1.64	+0.70	+0.02	+0.85	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	17:26
23 Esa Lindell D	+1.61	0.00	+0.02	+1.54	0.00	0.00	+0.06	—	19:58
5 Nils Lundkvist D	+1.52	0.00	+0.14	+1.40	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	21:26
22 Mavrik Bourque C	+1.41	+0.70	+0.21	+0.55	0.00	-0.01	-0.04	—	17:15
55 Thomas Harley D	+1.27	0.00	0.00	+1.23	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	22:34
14 Jamie Benn L	+1.23	0.00	+0.06	+1.49	-0.30	0.00	-0.02	—	14:11
49 Justin Hryckowian C	+1.10	0.00	+0.04	+1.00	0.00	+0.01	+0.05	—	13:50
25 Arttu Hyry R	+0.62	0.00	+0.12	+0.28	+0.15	+0.06	0.00	—	13:19
29 Jake Oettinger G	+0.44	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.44	60:00
11 Nathan Bastian R	+0.44	0.00	+0.10	+0.35	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:50
53 Wyatt Johnston C	+0.42	0.00	+0.25	+0.23	0.00	-0.03	-0.02	—	17:57
10 Oskar Bäck C	+0.36	0.00	+0.04	+0.28	0.00	-0.01	+0.05	—	13:51

Vancouver Canucks

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
74 Jake DeBrusk L	+0.42	+0.70	+0.09	-0.35	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	16:56
91 Evander Kane L	+0.18	+0.75	+0.46	-1.08	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	17:22
64 David Kampf C	-0.14	0.00	0.00	-0.20	0.00	+0.01	+0.05	—	13:14
7 Pierre-Olivier Joseph D	-0.22	0.00	0.00	-0.22	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	10:38
21 Nils Hoglander L	-0.37	0.00	+0.07	-0.44	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	11:06
94 Linus Karlsson C	-0.48	0.00	0.00	-0.48	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	11:46
24 Zeev Buium D	-0.81	0.00	0.00	-0.82	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	19:58
40 Elias Pettersson C	-0.92	0.00	0.00	-1.01	0.00	+0.02	+0.07	—	19:22
92 Liam Ohgren L	-0.95	0.00	+0.04	-1.05	0.00	+0.01	+0.05	—	14:49
25 Elias Pettersson D	-0.99	0.00	0.00	-0.95	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	20:01
8 Conor Garland R	-1.02	0.00	+0.03	-1.28	+0.15	-0.01	+0.08	—	15:58
93 Marco Rossi C	-1.24	0.00	+0.11	-1.36	0.00	-0.01	+0.03	—	13:43
17 Filip Hronek D	-1.25	0.00	+0.06	-1.19	-0.15	0.00	+0.02	—	21:00
18 Drew O'Connor L	-1.29	0.00	+0.06	-1.33	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	12:54
53 Teddy Blueger C	-1.40	0.00	0.00	-1.32	0.00	-0.02	-0.06	—	16:13
60 Nikita Tolopilo G	-1.41	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-1.41	60:00
6 Brock Boeser R	-1.81	0.00	0.00	-1.79	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	15:51
29 Marcus Pettersson D	-1.91	+0.55	+0.01	-2.54	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	23:43
5 Tom Willander D	-1.99	0.00	0.00	-2.07	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	22:33

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.