hockeystats.io

Florida PanthersFLA 1–5 Final New Jersey DevilsNJD

Tuesday, March 3, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Florida PanthersFLA 100 1 21
New Jersey DevilsNJD 122 5 33
Playoff odds, % Change
FLA -0.6
NJD +0.1

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 3, 2026 6:40 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
12:10 NJD Arseny Gritsyuk (10) Connor Brown (14) · snap xG 0.18 0–1 ▶
14:37 FLA Anton Lundell (17) Evan Rodrigues (17), Uvis Balinskis (10) · backhand xG 0.28 1–1 ▶
2nd Period
1:35 NJD Dougie Hamilton (9) Jack Hughes (28), Jesper Bratt (31) · wrist xG 0.12 1–2 ▶
8:13 NJD Cody Glass (14) Lenni Hameenaho (3), Dougie Hamilton (16) · tip-in xG 0.08 1–3 ▶
3rd Period
16:23 NJD Dawson Mercer (14)EN Unassisted · wrist xG 0.24 1–4 ▶
19:20 NJD Simon Nemec (9)EN Connor Brown (15), Jack Hughes (29) · wrist xG 0.92 1–5 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

FLA 45%Deserve to win55% NJD
FLANJD
2.60Expected goals5.86
1Goals (no shootout)5
2.16Expected goals, 5 on 51.89
43Shot attempts55
32Unblocked attempts46
21Shots on goal33

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
16:05 FLA Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Bobrovsky, down 3–1
With 3:55 left; NJD scored at 16:23 of the 3rd (1–4)
17:21 FLA Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Bobrovsky, down 4–1
With 2:39 left; NJD scored at 19:20 of the 3rd (1–5)

Shot map

FLA shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ NJD shoots
Sam Bennett: backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.29 (P1 0:24) Matthew Tkachuk: between-legs, 6 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 0:25) Sam Reinhart: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 0:36) Anton Lundell: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 1:10) Arseny Gritsyuk: backhand, 29 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 2:19) Maxim Tsyplakov: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 2:56) Nico Hischier: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 3:28) Brad Marchand: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 4:12) Timo Meier: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 7:27) Carter Verhaeghe: deflected, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:46) Timo Meier: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 7:56) Jonas Siegenthaler: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 8:20) Niko Mikkola: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 8:42) Uvis Balinskis: wrist, 71 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 9:13) Paul Cotter: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 10:23) Sandis Vilmanis: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 11:37) Dawson Mercer: slap, 153 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 13:22) Aaron Ekblad: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 13:41) Sam Bennett: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 13:47) Sam Bennett: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 13:48) Evan Rodrigues: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:34) Sandis Vilmanis: backhand, 23 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 15:11) A.J. Greer: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 15:12) Sam Bennett: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 16:32) Jesper Bratt: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 18:03) Nico Hischier: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 0:40) Jack Hughes: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 1:33) Niko Mikkola: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 4:33) Nico Hischier: slap, 34 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 4:58) Nico Hischier: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 5:22) Timo Meier: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 5:47) Timo Meier: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 5:55) Sam Reinhart: wrist, 83 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 7:26) Anton Lundell: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 7:33) Jesper Bratt: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 7:49) Jesper Bratt: snap, 5 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 7:59) Timo Meier: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:55) Gustav Forsling: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:13) Evan Rodrigues: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.37 (P2 9:16) Maxim Tsyplakov: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 10:19) Sam Bennett: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 11:26) Brett Pesce: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 11:42) Simon Nemec: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:47) Uvis Balinskis: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 12:46) Jack Hughes: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 13:54) Luke Hughes: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 13:58) Dawson Mercer: backhand, 26 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 14:30) Jesper Bratt: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 15:32) Gustav Forsling: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 16:21) Matthew Tkachuk: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 17:25) Tobias Bjornfot: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 17:47) Luke Hughes: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 18:50) Dougie Hamilton: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 0:39) Arseny Gritsyuk: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 0:47) Gustav Forsling: snap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:16) Niko Mikkola: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:17) Aaron Ekblad: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 3:47) Dougie Hamilton: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:16) Jonas Siegenthaler: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:38) Jesper Bratt: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 5:52) Luke Hughes: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 6:54) Dawson Mercer: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 7:39) Timo Meier: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 7:41) Jonas Siegenthaler: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 8:25) Brett Pesce: wrist, 94 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 9:52) Nick Bjugstad: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:15) Luke Hughes: wrist, 144 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 12:13) Sam Reinhart: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 14:15) Gustav Forsling: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:52) Luke Hughes: wrist, 139 ft, xG 0.41 (P3 17:45) Arseny Gritsyuk: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.92 (P3 18:35) Arseny Gritsyuk: wrist, 93 ft, xG 0.49 (P3 18:50) Arseny Gritsyuk: GOAL, snap, 22 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 12:10) Anton Lundell: GOAL, backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.28 (P1 14:37) Dougie Hamilton: GOAL, wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 1:35) Cody Glass: GOAL, tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 8:13) Dawson Mercer: GOAL, wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.24 (P3 16:23) Simon Nemec: GOAL, wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.92 (P3 19:20)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Florida Panthers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
13 Sam Reinhart 000 -2 50.14 1022:33
15 Anton Lundell 101 -2 40.45 1019:56
19 Matthew Tkachuk 000 -2 40.14 2018:50
9 Sam Bennett 000 -2 60.74 2118:49
27 Eetu Luostarinen 000 -1 00.00 1014:31
23 Carter Verhaeghe 000 -2 20.01 2014:28
63 Brad Marchand 000 -1 10.14 2014:12
95 Sandis Vilmanis 000 -2 20.23 5013:45
17 Evan Rodrigues 011 0 20.38 3113:27
92 Tomas Nosek 000 0 00.00 2110:21
18 A.J. Greer 000 0 10.04 7109:34
11 Mackie Samoskevich 000 0 00.00 1009:06
Defense
5 Aaron Ekblad 000 -2 30.15 0123:25
42 Gustav Forsling 000 -1 40.05 1022:40
77 Niko Mikkola 000 -1 40.06 0120:04
7 Dmitry Kulikov 000 -1 00.00 3117:54
26 Uvis Balinskis 011 -2 40.05 0116:55
22 Tobias Bjornfot 000 0 10.03 0113:47
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Sergei Bobrovsky 31328 .903 2.88 -0.12

New Jersey Devils

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
86 Jack Hughes 022 +3 30.18 0019:44
13 Nico Hischier 000 0 40.48 2119:06
91 Dawson Mercer 101 0 40.34 1017:23
16 Connor Brown 022 +2 00.00 0117:03
63 Jesper Bratt 011 +2 60.40 0116:52
81 Arseny Gritsyuk 101 +1 71.78 0016:28
28 Timo Meier 000 +2 60.46 3016:03
12 Cody Glass 101 +1 10.08 1113:14
29 Lenni Hameenaho 011 +1 00.00 2012:37
47 Paul Cotter 000 -1 20.11 1009:26
72 Maxim Tsyplakov 000 0 30.31 2007:56
72 Nick Bjugstad 000 0 20.01 2107:48
Defense
43 Luke Hughes 000 +1 60.51 0023:05
22 Brett Pesce 000 +1 20.03 0322:04
71 Simon Nemec 101 +2 20.93 0020:52
7 Dougie Hamilton 112 +1 40.21 1018:29
71 Jonas Siegenthaler 000 0 30.03 1117:33
5 Brenden Dillon 000 +3 00.00 1116:17
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jacob Markstrom 21120 .952 2.60 +1.60

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Florida Panthers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
15 Anton Lundell C +1.77 +0.75 +0.29 +0.52 +0.30 -0.07 -0.02 — 19:56
17 Evan Rodrigues C +1.63 +0.70 +0.25 +0.63 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 13:27
26 Uvis Balinskis D +1.15 +0.55 +0.03 +0.52 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 16:55
27 Eetu Luostarinen C +0.79 0.00 0.00 +0.64 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 14:31
42 Gustav Forsling D +0.55 0.00 +0.03 +0.56 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 22:40
11 Mackie Samoskevich R +0.15 0.00 0.00 +0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:06
10 A.J. Greer L +0.04 0.00 +0.03 0.00 0.00 -0.01 +0.03 — 9:34
92 Tomas Nosek L +0.03 0.00 0.00 +0.01 0.00 -0.03 +0.05 — 10:21
77 Niko Mikkola D 0.00 0.00 +0.04 -0.05 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 20:04
95 Sandis Vilmanis L -0.01 0.00 +0.15 -0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:45
63 Brad Marchand L -0.04 0.00 +0.09 +0.17 -0.30 0.00 0.00 — 14:12
5 Aaron Ekblad D -0.09 0.00 +0.10 -0.09 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 23:25
9 Sam Bennett C -0.10 0.00 +0.48 -0.54 0.00 -0.07 +0.03 — 18:49
72 Sergei Bobrovsky G -0.12 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.12 57:43
13 Sam Reinhart C -0.15 0.00 +0.09 -0.23 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 22:33
22 Tobias Bjornfot D -0.21 0.00 +0.02 -0.28 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 13:47
19 Matthew Tkachuk L -0.23 0.00 +0.09 -0.26 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 18:50
7 Dmitry Kulikov D -0.32 0.00 0.00 -0.37 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:54
23 Carter Verhaeghe C -0.47 0.00 +0.01 -0.48 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:28

New Jersey Devils

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
7 Dougie Hamilton D +1.75 +1.30 +0.14 +0.29 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 18:29
81 Arseny Gritsyuk R +1.64 +0.75 +1.16 -0.25 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:28
17 Simon Nemec D +1.61 +0.75 +0.60 +0.08 +0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 20:52
25 Jacob Markstrom G +1.60 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.60 60:00
16 Connor Brown R +1.47 +1.40 0.00 +0.02 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:03
12 Cody Glass C +1.29 +0.75 +0.05 +0.36 0.00 +0.06 +0.07 — 13:14
63 Jesper Bratt L +1.17 +0.55 +0.26 +0.35 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 16:52
86 Jack Hughes C +1.10 +1.25 +0.12 -0.19 0.00 -0.02 -0.06 — 19:44
29 Lenni Hameenaho R +1.03 +0.70 0.00 +0.35 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:37
42 Maxim Tsyplakov R +0.61 0.00 +0.20 +0.38 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 7:56
72 Nick Bjugstad C +0.39 0.00 +0.01 +0.33 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 7:48
71 Jonas Siegenthaler D +0.23 0.00 +0.02 +0.16 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:33
91 Dawson Mercer C +0.19 +0.75 +0.22 -0.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:23
47 Paul Cotter L +0.12 0.00 +0.07 -0.09 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 9:26
28 Timo Meier R +0.01 0.00 +0.30 -0.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:03
13 Nico Hischier C +0.01 0.00 +0.31 -0.64 +0.15 +0.14 +0.05 — 19:06
5 Brenden Dillon D -0.20 0.00 0.00 +0.22 -0.45 0.00 +0.03 — 16:17
43 Luke Hughes D -0.22 0.00 +0.33 -0.53 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 23:05
22 Brett Pesce D -0.37 0.00 +0.02 -0.53 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 22:04

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.