Tampa Bay LightningTBL 1–5 Final Minnesota WildMIN

Tuesday, March 3, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Tampa Bay LightningTBL	0	1	0	1	25
Minnesota WildMIN	1	2	2	5	22

Playoff odds, %	Change
TBL	-0.1
MIN	+0.0

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 3, 2026 9:47 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
3:46	MIN	Brock Faber (14) Marcus Johansson (26), Matt Boldy (35) · snap xG 0.08	0–1 ▶
2nd Period
4:59	MIN	Mats Zuccarello (11)PP Quinn Hughes (55), Matt Boldy (36) · wrist xG 0.08	0–2 ▶
15:07	TBL	Nikita Kucherov (32) Brayden Point (22), Jake Guentzel (38) · wrist xG 0.09	1–2 ▶
17:10	MIN	Yakov Trenin (6) Mats Zuccarello (26) · wrist xG 0.25	1–3 ▶
3rd Period
6:53	MIN	Quinn Hughes (6) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.14	1–4 ▶
16:41	MIN	Kirill Kaprizov (35)EN Brock Faber (26), Matt Boldy (37) · backhand xG 0.42	1–5 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TBL 47%Deserve to win53% MIN

TBL		MIN
2.32	Expected goals	3.23
1	Goals (no shootout)	5
1.46	Expected goals, 5 on 5	1.76
53	Shot attempts	50
37	Unblocked attempts	36
25	Shots on goal	22

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
16:47	TBL	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · TBL takes the lead, 61–39% MIN had led since 11:57 of the 1st, by as much as 62%
3rd Period
6:53	TBL	Goalie	Goalie · Vasilevskiy −2.1 goals saved 4 goals on 1.92 xG, 19 shots on goal
14:00	MIN	No shift	No shift · Johansson, 13:26 on the bench No shift after 1:35 of the 3rd; 17 shifts (10:45) before that
14:59	TBL	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Vasilevskiy, down 4–1 With 5:01 left; MIN scored at 16:41 of the 3rd (1–5)

Shot map

TBL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ MIN shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Tampa Bay Lightning

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
86	Nikita Kucherov	1	0	1	-1	8	0.38	0	0	22:56
59	Jake Guentzel	0	1	1	0	5	0.52	0	0	22:11
38	Brandon Hagel	0	0	0	-2	6	0.12	1	0	20:50
21	Brayden Point	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	0	0	19:50
37	Yanni Gourde	0	0	0	-1	3	0.29	0	0	16:19
71	Anthony Cirelli	0	0	0	-2	2	0.00	0	2	16:12
28	Oliver Bjorkstrand	0	0	0	-1	5	0.37	2	1	15:56
28	Zemgus Girgensons	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	6	0	13:07
29	Pontus Holmberg	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	1	1	12:59
94	Conor Geekie	0	0	0	-2	1	0.08	4	1	10:40
49	Scott Sabourin	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	0	0	07:29
Defense
43	Darren Raddysh	0	0	0	0	9	0.42	3	0	23:07
77	Victor Hedman	0	0	0	-2	2	0.00	2	0	16:51
90	J.J. Moser	0	0	0	0	2	0.04	0	1	16:14
51	Charle-Edouard D'Astous	0	0	0	-2	3	0.08	2	4	15:43
81	Erik Cernak	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	2	1	15:37
27	Ryan McDonagh	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	0	2	14:49
78	Emil Lilleberg	0	0	0	-1	1	0.01	2	0	11:08

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy	21	4	17	.810	2.46	-1.54

Minnesota Wild

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
97	Kirill Kaprizov	1	0	1	+2	9	1.19	0	2	22:11
36	Mats Zuccarello	1	1	2	+1	6	0.25	0	0	20:24
12	Matt Boldy	0	3	3	+2	5	0.16	1	1	19:57
14	Joel Eriksson Ek	0	0	0	+2	0	0.00	1	0	18:20
38	Ryan Hartman	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	2	16:29
13	Yakov Trenin	1	0	1	+1	4	0.51	6	0	15:18
91	Vladimir Tarasenko	0	0	0	0	2	0.25	1	0	14:21
22	Danila Yurov	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	1	1	13:54
90	Marcus Johansson	0	1	1	0	3	0.05	0	1	10:46
78	Nico Sturm	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4	0	10:05
21	Robby Fabbri	0	0	0	0	3	0.21	2	0	09:16
18	Vinnie Hinostroza	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	0	08:05
Defense
43	Quinn Hughes	1	1	2	+1	7	0.25	0	2	26:01
7	Brock Faber	1	1	2	+3	5	0.19	0	0	24:12
55	Jake Middleton	0	0	0	+1	1	0.02	1	4	18:26
46	Jared Spurgeon	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0	2	15:27
25	Jonas Brodin	0	0	0	+1	3	0.03	0	1	15:24
24	Zach Bogosian	0	0	0	0	1	0.13	0	0	14:25

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Filip Gustavsson	25	1	24	.960	2.32	+1.32

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
59 Jake Guentzel C	+1.34	+0.55	+0.34	+0.44	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	22:11
86 Nikita Kucherov R	+1.14	+0.75	+0.25	+0.15	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	22:56
21 Brayden Point C	+1.11	+0.70	0.00	+0.58	-0.15	-0.02	0.00	—	19:50
43 Darren Raddysh D	+0.49	0.00	+0.27	+0.37	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	23:07
27 Ryan McDonagh D	+0.23	0.00	0.00	-0.05	+0.15	0.00	+0.12	—	14:49
90 J.J. Moser D	+0.14	0.00	+0.03	+0.06	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	16:14
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R	+0.11	0.00	+0.24	-0.18	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	15:56
37 Yanni Gourde C	+0.06	0.00	+0.19	-0.03	0.00	-0.05	-0.04	—	16:19
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D	-0.05	0.00	+0.05	-0.30	0.00	0.00	+0.20	—	15:43
28 Zemgus Girgensons C	-0.12	0.00	0.00	-0.14	0.00	+0.02	0.00	—	13:07
29 Pontus Holmberg R	-0.13	0.00	0.00	-0.14	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	12:59
46 Scott Sabourin R	-0.20	0.00	+0.01	-0.36	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	7:29
81 Erik Cernak D	-0.22	0.00	0.00	-0.25	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	15:37
77 Victor Hedman D	-0.32	0.00	0.00	-0.30	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	16:51
38 Brandon Hagel L	-0.62	0.00	+0.08	-0.68	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	20:50
78 Emil Lilleberg D	-0.65	0.00	0.00	-0.65	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	11:08
14 Conor Geekie C	-0.69	0.00	+0.05	-0.83	0.00	+0.02	+0.07	—	10:40
71 Anthony Cirelli C	-0.70	0.00	0.00	-0.80	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	16:12
88 Andrei Vasilevskiy G	-1.54	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-1.54	58:18

Minnesota Wild

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
7 Brock Faber D	+2.65	+1.45	+0.12	+1.10	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	24:12
36 Mats Zuccarello R	+2.34	+1.45	+0.16	+0.72	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	20:24
43 Quinn Hughes D	+2.33	+1.45	+0.16	+0.50	+0.15	0.00	+0.06	—	26:01
12 Matt Boldy L	+1.77	+1.65	+0.10	-0.03	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	19:57
97 Kirill Kaprizov L	+1.74	+0.75	+0.78	+0.31	-0.15	0.00	+0.06	—	22:11
32 Filip Gustavsson G	+1.32	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.32	60:00
13 Yakov Trenin C	+1.19	+0.75	+0.33	+0.13	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	15:18
90 Marcus Johansson L	+1.17	+0.70	+0.03	+0.09	+0.30	0.00	+0.05	—	10:45
38 Ryan Hartman R	+0.60	0.00	0.00	+0.30	+0.15	+0.07	+0.08	—	16:29
22 Danila Yurov R	+0.50	0.00	0.00	+0.47	0.00	+0.01	+0.02	—	13:54
91 Vladimir Tarasenko R	+0.39	0.00	+0.16	+0.25	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	14:21
25 Jonas Brodin D	+0.13	0.00	+0.02	+0.23	-0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	15:24
5 Jake Middleton D	+0.12	0.00	+0.02	-0.12	0.00	0.00	+0.22	—	18:26
21 Robby Fabbri C	+0.03	0.00	+0.13	-0.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	9:16
46 Jared Spurgeon D	-0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.11	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	15:27
14 Joel Eriksson Ek C	-0.08	0.00	0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	+0.02	—	18:20
78 Nico Sturm C	-0.11	0.00	0.00	-0.10	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	10:06
18 Vinnie Hinostroza C	-0.16	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.15	-0.01	0.00	—	8:05
24 Zach Bogosian D	-0.54	0.00	+0.09	-0.46	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	14:25

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.