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Colorado AvalancheCOL 5–1 Final Anaheim DucksANA

Tuesday, March 3, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Colorado AvalancheCOL 212 5 26
Anaheim DucksANA 010 1 28
Playoff odds, % Change
ANA -1.4
COL +0.0

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 3, 2026 9:47 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
11:33 COL Cale Makar (18) Valeri Nichushkin (24), Brock Nelson (21) · snap xG 0.16 1–0 ▶
14:05 COL Martin Necas (27)PP Brock Nelson (22), Cale Makar (45) · slap xG 0.09 2–0 ▶
2nd Period
4:50 ANA Cutter Gauthier (29) Jackson LaCombe (35) · snap xG 0.09 2–1 ▶
15:03 COL Parker Kelly (14) Cale Makar (46), Jack Drury (12) · snap xG 0.04 3–1 ▶
3rd Period
4:35 COL Gabriel Landeskog (9) Nathan MacKinnon (59) · slap xG 0.09 4–1 ▶
10:06 COL Parker Kelly (15) Jack Drury (13), Brett Kulak (9) · wrist xG 0.08 5–1 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

COL 54%Deserve to win46% ANA
COLANA
3.19Expected goals2.92
5Goals (no shootout)1
2.72Expected goals, 5 on 52.18
53Shot attempts57
41Unblocked attempts44
26Shots on goal28

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
10:06 ANA Goalie Goalie · Dostal −2.2 goals saved
5 goals on 2.81 xG, 23 shots on goal

Shot map

COL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ ANA shoots
Jacob Trouba: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:17) Leo Carlsson: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 0:28) Mason McTavish: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:23) Beckett Sennecke: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 2:55) Brock Nelson: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 3:20) Jackson LaCombe: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 3:35) Jackson LaCombe: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 3:36) Cutter Gauthier: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 3:55) Jacob Trouba: snap, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 4:59) Cutter Gauthier: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:36) Chris Kreider: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 5:58) Beckett Sennecke: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 6:14) Pavel Mintyukov: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 6:54) Mason McTavish: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 6:55) Josh Manson: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.20 (P1 8:25) Sam Malinski: snap, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 8:49) Nathan MacKinnon: backhand, 30 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:59) Pavel Mintyukov: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:21) Gabriel Landeskog: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 16:18) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 17:41) Beckett Sennecke: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 18:49) Brock Nelson: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 0:44) Mason McTavish: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 1:08) Alex Killorn: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:11) Jacob Trouba: snap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:26) Olen Zellweger: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 3:50) Victor Olofsson: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 4:20) Chris Kreider: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 4:45) Zakhar Bardakov: deflected, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 5:25) Zakhar Bardakov: snap, 6 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 5:27) Brett Kulak: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 5:42) Cutter Gauthier: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 6:35) Jacob Trouba: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:01) Jack Drury: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 10:05) Ross Colton: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 10:30) Jack Drury: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 10:36) Beckett Sennecke: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:40) Martin Necas: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 11:59) Cale Makar: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 12:06) Beckett Sennecke: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 12:46) Ross Johnston: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 13:04) Valeri Nichushkin: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 13:25) Brock Nelson: deflected, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 13:26) Valeri Nichushkin: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 13:30) Sam Malinski: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 13:37) Olen Zellweger: snap, 122 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 14:43) Ross Colton: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:49) Josh Manson: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 15:59) Gabriel Landeskog: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 16:05) Cutter Gauthier: deflected, 10 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 16:30) Sam Malinski: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 17:07) Nathan MacKinnon: slap, 28 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 19:23) Alex Killorn: tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 0:51) Beckett Sennecke: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 1:05) Valeri Nichushkin: tip-in, 28 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 1:43) Olen Zellweger: wrist, 120 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 2:20) Tim Washe: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 2:30) Tim Washe: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 2:31) Ian Moore: snap, 8 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 2:32) Cutter Gauthier: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:28) Cutter Gauthier: snap, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:36) Leo Carlsson: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:02) Victor Olofsson: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 4:10) Josh Manson: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:14) Nathan MacKinnon: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 4:16) Mason McTavish: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 5:48) Pavel Mintyukov: snap, 8 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 5:51) Alex Killorn: deflected, 19 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 6:53) Jason Polin: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 8:22) Jack Drury: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 9:59) Jack Drury: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.26 (P3 10:01) Mason McTavish: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 10:24) Devon Toews: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.28 (P3 10:53) Jacob Trouba: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:51) Beckett Sennecke: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 14:21) Jason Polin: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 17:58) Gavin Brindley: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 17:59) Sam Malinski: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 18:53) Jeffrey Viel: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 19:23) Cale Makar: GOAL, snap, 24 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 11:33) Martin Necas: GOAL, slap, 39 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 14:05) Cutter Gauthier: GOAL, snap, 26 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 4:50) Parker Kelly: GOAL, snap, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 15:03) Gabriel Landeskog: GOAL, slap, 36 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 4:35) Parker Kelly: GOAL, wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 10:06)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Colorado Avalanche

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
88 Martin Necas 101 +1 50.16 0121:29
29 Nathan MacKinnon 011 +1 40.31 2020:43
92 Gabriel Landeskog 101 +1 30.30 0020:13
11 Brock Nelson 022 +1 30.10 1016:53
17 Parker Kelly 202 +2 20.12 2316:27
18 Jack Drury 022 +2 40.43 0016:22
43 Valeri Nichushkin 011 0 30.17 0214:28
79 Ross Colton 000 0 40.11 1012:51
95 Victor Olofsson 000 +2 20.27 0012:06
93 Zakhar Bardakov 000 0 30.17 2009:49
54 Gavin Brindley 000 -1 10.04 0009:05
Defense
8 Cale Makar 123 +2 30.20 0122:26
42 Josh Manson 000 +1 40.24 3119:27
84 Brent Burns 000 +1 20.00 1019:03
7 Devon Toews 000 +1 10.28 0118:20
27 Brett Kulak 011 +1 10.03 1118:06
70 Sam Malinski 000 0 60.17 2018:03
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Scott Wedgewood 28127 .964 2.92 +1.92

Anaheim Ducks

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
45 Beckett Sennecke 000 -2 70.55 1019:39
17 Alex Killorn 000 -1 30.30 0018:22
91 Leo Carlsson 000 0 40.15 0117:20
61 Cutter Gauthier 101 0 80.45 0016:54
25 Ryan Poehling 000 -2 00.00 0116:40
25 Jeffrey Viel 000 -2 10.21 3016:05
83 Mason McTavish 000 -1 60.29 3014:31
22 Chris Kreider 000 0 20.07 1014:28
42 Tim Washe 000 0 20.24 3111:32
49 Ross Johnston 000 0 10.04 2011:10
10 Jansen Harkins 000 -1 00.00 5009:50
Defense
98 Pavel Mintyukov 000 0 40.18 0221:42
65 Jacob Trouba 000 -1 60.07 1020:02
2 Jackson LaCombe 011 0 40.22 0019:57
14 Drew Helleson 000 0 00.00 1318:35
8 Olen Zellweger 000 -3 50.09 1218:21
6 Radko Gudas 000 -2 30.00 2017:54
3 Ian Moore 000 0 10.06 1012:23
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Lukas Dostal 26521 .808 3.19 -1.81

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Colorado Avalanche

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
8 Cale Makar D +2.44 +2.00 +0.13 +0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 22:26
92 Gabriel Landeskog L +2.24 +0.75 +0.20 +1.13 +0.15 +0.01 0.00 — 20:13
18 Jack Drury C +2.19 +1.25 +0.28 +0.66 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:22
17 Parker Kelly C +2.17 +1.50 +0.08 +0.44 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 16:27
41 Scott Wedgewood G +2.07 0.00 — — +0.15 — — +1.92 60:00
29 Nathan MacKinnon C +1.80 +0.70 +0.20 +0.72 +0.15 +0.02 0.00 — 20:43
11 Brock Nelson C +1.17 +1.25 +0.07 -0.17 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 16:53
88 Martin Necas C +1.13 +0.75 +0.10 +0.39 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 21:29
27 Brett Kulak D +0.93 +0.55 +0.02 +0.31 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 18:06
95 Victor Olofsson L +0.57 0.00 +0.18 +0.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:06
70 Sam Malinski D +0.57 0.00 +0.11 +0.46 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 18:03
7 Devon Toews D +0.55 0.00 +0.18 +0.32 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 18:20
13 Valeri Nichushkin R +0.54 +0.70 +0.11 -0.37 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 14:28
84 Brent Burns D +0.45 0.00 0.00 +0.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:03
93 Zakhar Bardakov C +0.37 0.00 +0.11 +0.33 0.00 -0.03 -0.04 — 9:49
42 Josh Manson D +0.27 0.00 +0.15 +0.28 -0.15 0.00 -0.01 — 19:27
14 Jason Polin R +0.25 0.00 +0.07 +0.13 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 8:09
54 Gavin Brindley C +0.16 0.00 +0.02 +0.15 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 9:05
20 Ross Colton C -0.76 0.00 +0.07 -0.66 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 12:51

Anaheim Ducks

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
98 Pavel Mintyukov D +0.89 0.00 +0.12 +0.70 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 21:42
61 Cutter Gauthier L +0.58 +0.75 +0.29 -0.47 0.00 +0.03 -0.02 — 16:54
2 Jackson LaCombe D +0.58 +0.70 +0.14 -0.28 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 19:57
42 Tim Washe C +0.50 0.00 +0.15 +0.10 +0.15 +0.03 +0.07 — 11:32
14 Drew Helleson D +0.39 0.00 0.00 +0.24 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 18:35
17 Alex Killorn L +0.36 0.00 +0.20 +0.18 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 18:22
23 Mason McTavish C +0.25 0.00 +0.19 +0.04 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 14:31
44 Ross Johnston L +0.12 0.00 +0.03 +0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:10
45 Beckett Sennecke R 0.00 0.00 +0.36 -0.34 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 19:39
74 Ian Moore D -0.07 0.00 +0.04 -0.26 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 12:23
24 Jansen Harkins C -0.23 0.00 0.00 -0.19 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 9:50
91 Leo Carlsson C -0.38 0.00 +0.09 -0.47 0.00 -0.03 +0.03 — 17:20
20 Chris Kreider L -0.44 0.00 +0.05 -0.47 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:28
28 Jeffrey Viel L -0.52 0.00 +0.14 -0.64 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:05
25 Ryan Poehling C -0.75 0.00 0.00 -0.72 0.00 -0.04 +0.01 — 16:40
7 Radko Gudas D -0.75 0.00 0.00 -0.71 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 17:54
65 Jacob Trouba D -0.82 0.00 +0.05 -0.57 -0.30 0.00 0.00 — 20:02
51 Olen Zellweger D -1.38 0.00 +0.06 -1.46 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 18:21
1 Lukas Dostal G -1.81 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.81 59:40

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.