Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 3–4 Final/SO New Jersey DevilsNJD

Wednesday, March 4, 2026

Final/SO	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	SO	T	SOG
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR	1	1	1	0	0	3	27
New Jersey DevilsNJD	1	1	1	0	2	4	47

Playoff odds, %	Change
TOR	-0.3
NJD	+0.2

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 4, 2026 6:32 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
5:26	TOR	Matias Maccelli (11) Dakota Joshua (5), Simon Benoit (4) · wrist xG 0.14	1–0 ▶
7:55	NJD	Timo Meier (17) Nico Hischier (24), Dawson Mercer (18) · snap xG 0.12	1–1 ▶
2nd Period
3:20	TOR	William Nylander (21)PP Easton Cowan (11), Auston Matthews (26) · deflected xG 0.06	2–1 ▶
6:06	NJD	Arseny Gritsyuk (11) Jesper Bratt (32), Nico Hischier (25) · wrist xG 0.09	2–2 ▶
3rd Period
13:50	TOR	Matthew Knies (16) John Tavares (29), Troy Stecher (9) · bat xG 0.25	3–2 ▶
17:39	NJD	Connor Brown (11) Arseny Gritsyuk (15), Luke Hughes (23) · wrist xG 0.15	3–3 ▶
Overtime
No scoring
Shootout
	NJD	Paul Cotter vs Anthony Stolarz	Goal
	TOR	William Nylander vs Jacob Markstrom	Saved
	NJD	Jesper Bratt vs Anthony Stolarz	Goal
	TOR	Auston Matthews vs Jacob Markstrom	Saved

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TOR 21%Deserve to win79% NJD

TOR		NJD
2.84	Expected goals	4.95
3	Goals (no shootout)	3
1.91	Expected goals, 5 on 5	3.10
51	Shot attempts	82
40	Unblocked attempts	68
27	Shots on goal	47

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
19:30	NJD	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced TOR 1.45–0.17 In xG over 10 minutes, 9:30 to 19:30 of the 2nd; neither team scored
3rd Period
15:22	TOR	Goalie	Goalie · Stolarz +2.1 goals saved 2 goals on 4.06 xG, 43 shots on goal
17:50	NJD	No shift	No shift · Tsyplakov, 12:14 on the bench No shift after 7:46 of the 3rd; 8 shifts (6:52) before that
18:10	NJD	No shift	No shift · Cotter, 12:14 on the bench No shift from 7:46 of the 3rd to 2:49 of overtime; 9 shifts (6:44) before that

Shot map

TOR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ NJD shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Toronto Maple Leafs

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
34	Auston Matthews	0	1	1	-1	9	0.70	1	2	24:57
88	William Nylander	1	0	1	-1	2	0.10	0	0	22:51
10	Nicolas Roy	0	0	0	0	3	0.01	0	0	17:55
53	Easton Cowan	0	1	1	-2	1	0.00	0	0	17:03
91	John Tavares	0	1	1	0	5	0.48	1	2	16:45
63	Matias Maccelli	1	0	1	0	5	0.26	0	0	16:22
89	Matthew Knies	1	0	1	+1	3	0.44	1	2	15:48
11	Max Domi	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0	0	15:25
19	Calle Jarnkrok	0	0	0	0	2	0.07	2	0	12:18
81	Dakota Joshua	0	1	1	+1	2	0.08	3	1	11:19
14	Nick Robertson	0	0	0	-1	4	0.33	0	0	10:33
18	Steven Lorentz	0	0	0	0	1	0.12	2	0	08:21
Defense
22	Jake McCabe	0	0	0	-2	1	0.00	0	1	26:28
44	Morgan Rielly	0	0	0	+2	2	0.03	0	2	22:35
28	Troy Stecher	0	1	1	-1	4	0.08	1	0	20:45
25	Brandon Carlo	0	0	0	+1	2	0.05	3	2	17:23
44	Simon Benoit	0	1	1	-2	2	0.09	1	1	17:14
51	Philippe Myers	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	1	0	14:58

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Anthony Stolarz	47	3	44	.936	4.95	+1.95

New Jersey Devils

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
13	Nico Hischier	0	2	2	+1	6	0.46	1	0	24:17
86	Jack Hughes	0	0	0	0	10	0.52	0	0	22:44
63	Jesper Bratt	0	1	1	+1	5	0.24	1	0	20:31
28	Timo Meier	1	0	1	+1	10	0.73	0	2	19:19
91	Dawson Mercer	0	1	1	+1	8	0.44	0	0	18:49
16	Connor Brown	1	0	1	0	7	0.73	0	0	17:16
81	Arseny Gritsyuk	1	1	2	+1	2	0.09	0	0	17:04
12	Cody Glass	0	0	0	+1	4	0.59	1	0	14:36
29	Lenni Hameenaho	0	0	0	-1	2	0.28	1	0	10:39
72	Nick Bjugstad	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	08:33
47	Paul Cotter	0	0	0	-1	3	0.17	1	0	07:16
72	Maxim Tsyplakov	0	0	0	0	2	0.06	0	0	06:52
Defense
7	Dougie Hamilton	0	0	0	0	8	0.22	1	1	27:15
43	Luke Hughes	0	1	1	+2	8	0.22	1	1	22:11
71	Jonas Siegenthaler	0	0	0	-1	4	0.12	1	1	20:34
71	Simon Nemec	0	0	0	+1	1	0.03	0	3	18:53
5	Brenden Dillon	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	2	3	16:21
8	Johnathan Kovacevic	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	0	0	15:51

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Jacob Markstrom	27	3	24	.889	2.84	-0.16

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
41 Anthony Stolarz G	+1.95	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.95	65:00
63 Matias Maccelli L	+0.89	+0.75	+0.17	-0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	16:22
81 Dakota Joshua C	+0.85	+0.70	+0.05	+0.18	-0.15	0.00	+0.07	—	11:19
23 Matthew Knies L	+0.71	+0.75	+0.29	-0.42	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	15:48
34 Auston Matthews C	+0.58	+0.55	+0.45	-0.65	+0.15	-0.04	+0.12	—	24:57
89 Nick Robertson L	+0.55	0.00	+0.22	+0.18	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	10:33
91 John Tavares C	+0.39	+0.70	+0.31	-0.72	0.00	+0.02	+0.08	—	16:45
44 Morgan Rielly D	+0.22	0.00	+0.02	+0.08	0.00	0.00	+0.12	—	22:35
18 Steven Lorentz C	+0.22	0.00	+0.08	+0.19	0.00	-0.03	-0.02	—	8:21
19 Calle Jarnkrok C	+0.19	0.00	+0.04	+0.14	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	12:18
28 Troy Stecher D	+0.16	+0.55	+0.06	-0.45	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	20:45
88 William Nylander R	-0.04	+0.75	+0.07	-0.87	0.00	-0.01	+0.02	—	22:51
2 Simon Benoit D	-0.32	+0.55	+0.06	-0.94	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	17:14
25 Brandon Carlo D	-0.40	0.00	+0.03	-0.37	-0.15	0.00	+0.08	—	17:23
55 Nicolas Roy C	-0.45	0.00	0.00	-0.47	0.00	+0.07	-0.06	—	17:55
53 Easton Cowan R	-0.49	+0.70	0.00	-1.13	0.00	0.00	-0.06	—	17:03
51 Philippe Myers D	-0.58	0.00	0.00	-0.43	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	14:58
11 Max Domi C	-0.64	0.00	0.00	-0.65	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	15:25
22 Jake McCabe D	-0.95	0.00	0.00	-0.98	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	26:28

New Jersey Devils

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
13 Nico Hischier C	+2.56	+1.25	+0.30	+0.95	0.00	+0.06	0.00	—	24:17
28 Timo Meier R	+2.54	+0.75	+0.47	+1.17	0.00	0.00	+0.14	—	19:19
63 Jesper Bratt L	+1.97	+0.70	+0.16	+1.13	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	20:31
91 Dawson Mercer C	+1.95	+0.55	+0.28	+1.13	0.00	-0.03	+0.02	—	18:49
81 Arseny Gritsyuk R	+1.38	+1.45	+0.06	-0.12	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	17:04
43 Luke Hughes D	+1.34	+0.55	+0.14	+0.63	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	22:11
12 Cody Glass C	+1.24	0.00	+0.38	+1.01	-0.15	-0.02	+0.02	—	14:36
17 Simon Nemec D	+1.09	0.00	+0.02	+0.94	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	18:53
16 Connor Brown R	+0.96	+0.75	+0.47	-0.24	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	17:16
7 Dougie Hamilton D	+0.76	0.00	+0.14	+0.56	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	27:15
5 Brenden Dillon D	+0.45	0.00	+0.02	+0.47	-0.15	0.00	+0.11	—	16:21
86 Jack Hughes C	+0.43	0.00	+0.34	+0.16	0.00	-0.01	-0.06	—	22:44
29 Lenni Hameenaho R	+0.41	0.00	+0.18	-0.07	+0.30	0.00	0.00	—	10:39
71 Jonas Siegenthaler D	+0.38	0.00	+0.08	+0.25	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	20:34
42 Maxim Tsyplakov R	+0.23	0.00	+0.04	+0.08	+0.15	0.00	-0.04	—	6:52
25 Jacob Markstrom G	-0.16	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.16	65:00
8 Johnathan Kovacevic D	-0.20	0.00	+0.02	-0.05	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	15:51
72 Nick Bjugstad C	-0.26	0.00	0.00	-0.23	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	8:33
47 Paul Cotter L	-0.36	0.00	+0.11	-0.47	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	7:16

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.