Carolina HurricanesCAR 6–4 Final Vancouver CanucksVAN

Wednesday, March 4, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Carolina HurricanesCAR	1	4	1	6	33
Vancouver CanucksVAN	2	1	1	4	22

Playoff odds, %	Change
CAR	+0.1
VAN	+0.0

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 4, 2026 9:39 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
1:17	CAR	Andrei Svechnikov (22)PP Seth Jarvis (21), Shayne Gostisbehere (32) · snap xG 0.17	1–0 ▶
16:31	VAN	Marco Rossi (6)PP Elias Pettersson (23), Jake DeBrusk (17) · wrist xG 0.12	1–1 ▶
17:15	VAN	Filip Hronek (6) Drew O'Connor (9), Linus Karlsson (14) · slap xG 0.08	1–2 ▶
2nd Period
2:30	CAR	Sean Walker (5) Taylor Hall (19), Jackson Blake (20) · snap xG 0.16	2–2 ▶
4:19	CAR	Nikolaj Ehlers (17) Jordan Staal (12), Jalen Chatfield (14) · snap xG 0.12	3–2 ▶
11:53	CAR	Sebastian Aho (23) Seth Jarvis (22), K'Andre Miller (21) · backhand xG 0.08	4–2 ▶
12:50	CAR	Nikolaj Ehlers (18) Sean Walker (13) · slap xG 0.07	5–2 ▶
19:17	VAN	Brock Boeser (13)PP Marco Rossi (11), Filip Hronek (28) · wrist xG 0.33	5–3 ▶
3rd Period
6:45	VAN	Nils Hoglander (1) Elias Pettersson (24), Filip Hronek (29) · snap xG 0.16	5–4 ▶
19:46	CAR	Nikolaj Ehlers (19)PPEN Sebastian Aho (38), Andrei Svechnikov (31) · wrist xG 0.85	6–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

CAR 67%Deserve to win33% VAN

CAR		VAN
3.72	Expected goals	1.95
6	Goals (no shootout)	4
2.13	Expected goals, 5 on 5	1.08
66	Shot attempts	43
49	Unblocked attempts	31
33	Shots on goal	22

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
11:53	VAN	Goalie change	Goalie change · Tolopilo in for Lankinen 11:53 of the 2nd; Lankinen had allowed 4 goals on 22 shots (2.17 xG)
19:17	CAR	Goalie	Goalie · Bussi −2.0 goals saved 3 goals on 0.97 xG, 13 shots on goal
20:00	VAN	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Tolopilo, down 5–3 With 0:00 left
3rd Period
18:56	VAN	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Tolopilo, down 5–4 With 1:04 left; CAR scored at 19:46 of the 3rd (6–4)

Shot map

CAR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ VAN shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Carolina Hurricanes

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
24	Seth Jarvis	0	2	2	0	4	0.18	0	1	19:21
20	Sebastian Aho	1	1	2	0	4	0.28	0	1	19:17
37	Andrei Svechnikov	1	1	2	0	3	0.28	4	0	18:09
11	Jordan Staal	0	1	1	+1	4	0.15	2	0	16:53
27	Nikolaj Ehlers	3	0	3	+2	5	1.09	0	0	16:08
48	Jordan Martinook	0	0	0	+2	6	0.17	0	0	15:06
53	Jackson Blake	0	1	1	0	6	0.35	0	0	14:36
22	Logan Stankoven	0	0	0	0	5	0.45	0	1	14:20
71	Taylor Hall	0	1	1	0	5	0.22	0	0	13:48
50	Eric Robinson	0	0	0	0	4	0.10	0	1	11:07
82	Jesperi Kotkaniemi	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	1	0	10:27
28	William Carrier	0	0	0	0	5	0.07	3	0	10:16
Defense
19	K'Andre Miller	0	1	1	+2	1	0.02	1	0	23:04
74	Jaccob Slavin	0	0	0	+1	4	0.04	0	2	22:33
26	Sean Walker	1	1	2	+1	2	0.18	1	3	20:19
5	Jalen Chatfield	0	1	1	0	3	0.03	1	1	19:41
21	Alexander Nikishin	0	0	0	0	2	0.01	0	0	15:48
4	Shayne Gostisbehere	0	1	1	0	3	0.10	0	2	14:13

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Brandon Bussi	22	4	18	.818	1.95	-2.05

Vancouver Canucks

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
6	Brock Boeser	1	0	1	-1	5	0.53	7	1	19:31
40	Elias Pettersson	0	2	2	0	3	0.15	0	2	16:58
74	Jake DeBrusk	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	0	0	16:57
18	Drew O'Connor	0	1	1	0	7	0.40	2	2	16:57
23	Marco Rossi	1	1	2	-1	2	0.25	2	1	16:16
73	Teddy Blueger	0	0	0	-1	3	0.00	3	1	15:51
83	Conor Garland	0	0	0	-1	3	0.19	2	0	14:47
64	David Kampf	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	1	2	13:51
92	Liam Ohgren	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	12:30
94	Linus Karlsson	0	1	1	0	1	0.06	1	0	12:29
63	Max Sasson	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	0	11:46
21	Nils Hoglander	1	0	1	0	2	0.16	1	0	11:39
Defense
17	Filip Hronek	1	2	3	+2	3	0.09	4	1	26:45
26	Marcus Pettersson	0	0	0	-1	4	0.03	0	2	23:11
5	Tom Willander	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	2	0	18:51
25	Elias Pettersson	0	0	0	0	4	0.05	2	0	18:29
8	Zeev Buium	0	0	0	-1	4	0.04	1	2	16:10
90	Victor Mancini	0	0	0	-3	0	0.00	1	3	13:04

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Kevin Lankinen	22	4	18	.818	2.17	-1.83
Nikita Tolopilo	10	1	9	.900	0.71	-0.29

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Carolina Hurricanes

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
27 Nikolaj Ehlers L	+3.97	+2.25	+0.71	+0.90	+0.15	0.00	-0.04	—	16:06
26 Sean Walker D	+2.17	+1.45	+0.12	+0.53	-0.08	0.00	+0.15	—	20:19
37 Andrei Svechnikov R	+1.82	+1.30	+0.18	+0.19	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	18:07
20 Sebastian Aho C	+1.78	+1.45	+0.18	+0.29	-0.15	0.00	+0.01	—	19:15
24 Seth Jarvis C	+1.74	+1.40	+0.12	+0.04	+0.15	+0.01	+0.02	—	19:21
11 Jordan Staal C	+1.44	+0.70	+0.10	+0.61	0.00	+0.03	0.00	—	16:53
5 Jalen Chatfield D	+1.34	+0.55	+0.02	+0.85	-0.15	0.00	+0.07	—	19:43
74 Jaccob Slavin D	+1.24	0.00	+0.03	+1.09	0.00	0.00	+0.12	—	22:33
53 Jackson Blake R	+1.21	+0.55	+0.23	+0.51	-0.08	0.00	0.00	—	14:36
71 Taylor Hall L	+1.20	+0.70	+0.14	+0.36	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:48
19 K'Andre Miller D	+1.16	+0.55	+0.01	+0.59	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	23:04
48 Jordan Martinook L	+0.98	0.00	+0.11	+0.90	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	15:06
4 Shayne Gostisbehere D	+0.69	+0.55	+0.06	0.00	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	14:13
22 Logan Stankoven C	+0.62	0.00	+0.29	+0.31	0.00	+0.02	-0.01	—	14:20
82 Jesperi Kotkaniemi C	+0.22	0.00	0.00	+0.25	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	10:29
50 Eric Robinson L	+0.15	0.00	+0.07	+0.01	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	11:09
28 William Carrier L	+0.06	0.00	+0.05	+0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	10:18
21 Alexander Nikishin D	-0.30	0.00	+0.01	-0.14	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	15:46
32 Brandon Bussi G	-2.05	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-2.05	60:00

Vancouver Canucks

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
17 Filip Hronek D	+2.05	+1.85	+0.06	+0.11	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	26:43
93 Marco Rossi C	+1.37	+1.45	+0.16	-0.61	+0.30	+0.01	+0.05	—	16:14
40 Elias Pettersson C	+1.11	+1.40	+0.10	-0.24	-0.15	-0.05	+0.06	—	16:56
21 Nils Hoglander L	+0.72	+0.75	+0.10	-0.11	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	11:39
6 Brock Boeser R	+0.65	+0.75	+0.35	-0.41	0.00	-0.01	-0.03	—	19:29
18 Drew O'Connor L	+0.65	+0.70	+0.26	-0.37	0.00	0.00	+0.06	—	16:57
94 Linus Karlsson C	+0.47	+0.55	+0.04	-0.25	+0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	12:31
74 Jake DeBrusk L	+0.06	+0.55	0.00	-0.51	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	16:57
8 Conor Garland R	-0.09	0.00	+0.12	-0.29	+0.08	0.00	0.00	—	14:45
5 Tom Willander D	-0.11	0.00	0.00	-0.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	18:51
29 Marcus Pettersson D	-0.21	0.00	+0.02	-0.30	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	23:11
60 Nikita Tolopilo G	-0.29	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.29	27:17
64 David Kampf C	-0.30	0.00	0.00	-0.26	-0.15	+0.01	+0.10	—	13:53
25 Elias Pettersson D	-0.38	0.00	+0.03	-0.49	+0.08	0.00	0.00	—	18:31
63 Max Sasson C	-0.45	0.00	0.00	-0.42	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	11:48
53 Teddy Blueger C	-0.48	0.00	0.00	-0.36	-0.15	+0.02	+0.01	—	15:50
24 Zeev Buium D	-0.53	0.00	+0.03	-0.66	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	16:10
92 Liam Ohgren L	-0.58	0.00	0.00	-0.55	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	12:30
90 Victor Mancini D	-1.34	0.00	0.00	-1.47	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	13:06
32 Kevin Lankinen G	-1.83	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-1.83	31:53

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.