hockeystats.io

Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 2–6 Final New York RangersNYR

Thursday, March 5, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 110 2 32
New York RangersNYR 114 6 24
Playoff odds, % Change
TOR -0.3
NYR +0.0

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 5, 2026 6:24 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
0:13 TOR Matias Maccelli (12) William Nylander (37) · wrist xG 0.27 1–0 ▶
6:45 NYR Will Cuylle (14) Braden Schneider (10) · tip-in xG 0.07 1–1 ▶
2nd Period
5:27 TOR Easton Cowan (8) Matthew Knies (35), John Tavares (30) · wrist xG 0.06 2–1 ▶
7:29 NYR Vladislav Gavrikov (11)PP Taylor Raddysh (7), Jonny Brodzinski (7) · snap xG 0.25 2–2 ▶
3rd Period
5:38 NYR Alexis Lafrenière (14) Mika Zibanejad (30) · tip-in xG 0.13 2–3 ▶
10:27 NYR Jaroslav Chmelar (1) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.17 2–4 ▶
11:19 NYR Mika Zibanejad (25) Alexis Lafrenière (22), Adam Fox (25) · slap xG 0.06 2–5 ▶
17:09 NYR Will Cuylle (15)EN Alexis Lafrenière (23), Mika Zibanejad (31) · wrist xG 0.68 2–6 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TOR 54%Deserve to win46% NYR
TORNYR
2.96Expected goals3.43
2Goals (no shootout)6
2.23Expected goals, 5 on 52.31
54Shot attempts64
45Unblocked attempts37
32Shots on goal24

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
11:19 TOR Goalie Goalie · Woll −2.3 goals saved
5 goals on 2.65 xG, 22 shots on goal
14:09 TOR Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Woll, down 5–2
With 5:51 left; NYR scored at 17:09 of the 3rd (2–6)

Shot map

TOR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ NYR shoots
Will Cuylle: backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 1:40) Calle Jarnkrok: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 2:57) Will Cuylle: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 3:17) Noah Laba: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 3:41) Matthew Knies: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 4:46) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 5:09) Alexis Lafrenière: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 8:20) Braden Schneider: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 9:20) Braden Schneider: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:39) Jacob Quillan: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 12:50) Steven Lorentz: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 12:55) Steven Lorentz: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 12:56) Auston Matthews: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 13:09) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:30) Gabe Perreault: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 13:53) Mika Zibanejad: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 14:14) Simon Benoit: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 15:14) John Tavares: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 16:39) Max Domi: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 17:05) Brandon Carlo: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 18:18) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 19:43) Nick Robertson: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 19:47) Matias Maccelli: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 0:14) Tye Kartye: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 1:42) Vincent Iorio: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 2:32) Nick Robertson: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 2:58) Alexis Lafrenière: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 4:27) Alexis Lafrenière: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 4:28) Vincent Iorio: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 6:03) Taylor Raddysh: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 7:27) Nick Robertson: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 8:09) Auston Matthews: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 8:45) Alexis Lafrenière: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 9:00) Auston Matthews: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 9:35) Vladislav Gavrikov: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:33) Matias Maccelli: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 13:04) Jacob Quillan: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 14:09) Will Cuylle: snap, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 14:50) Jonny Brodzinski: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 15:15) Auston Matthews: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 15:50) Jake McCabe: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:11) Nick Robertson: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:35) Easton Cowan: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 19:00) Easton Cowan: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 19:02) Max Domi: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 19:05) Easton Cowan: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:38) Gabe Perreault: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 0:22) Matthew Knies: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:04) Taylor Raddysh: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 1:21) Braden Schneider: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:26) Vincent Iorio: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:47) Jaroslav Chmelar: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:52) Mika Zibanejad: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 3:03) Matias Maccelli: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:10) Brandon Carlo: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:17) William Nylander: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 3:23) Will Cuylle: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 3:51) Adam Fox: backhand, 19 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 3:59) Noah Laba: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 4:38) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 6:09) Auston Matthews: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 6:23) Will Cuylle: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 9:00) Mika Zibanejad: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 10:52) Brandon Carlo: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:20) William Nylander: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:23) Matthew Robertson: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:21) Matthew Knies: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 14:06) John Tavares: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 14:26) John Tavares: backhand, 4 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 14:27) Dakota Joshua: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 15:26) Max Domi: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 15:30) John Tavares: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 17:00) Matias Maccelli: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 17:01) Conor Sheary: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 18:09) Matias Maccelli: GOAL, wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.27 (P1 0:13) Will Cuylle: GOAL, tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 6:45) Easton Cowan: GOAL, wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 5:27) Vladislav Gavrikov: GOAL, snap, 21 ft, xG 0.25 (P2 7:29) Alexis Lafrenière: GOAL, tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 5:38) Jaroslav Chmelar: GOAL, wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 10:27) Mika Zibanejad: GOAL, slap, 20 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 11:19) Will Cuylle: GOAL, wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.68 (P3 17:09)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Toronto Maple Leafs

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
34 Auston Matthews 000 0 50.51 2120:46
63 Matias Maccelli 101 -1 60.41 0019:32
88 William Nylander 011 -1 20.05 0118:18
89 Matthew Knies 011 0 40.23 1017:39
91 John Tavares 011 -1 50.40 0017:11
53 Easton Cowan 101 +1 50.16 2016:48
14 Nick Robertson 000 -3 40.27 1014:42
81 Dakota Joshua 000 -3 10.12 8213:27
11 Max Domi 000 -2 30.37 0113:09
19 Calle Jarnkrok 000 0 10.03 1011:40
18 Steven Lorentz 000 0 20.10 1011:07
26 Jacob Quillan 000 -1 20.15 1209:53
Defense
44 Morgan Rielly 000 -1 40.09 0020:47
28 Troy Stecher 000 -1 10.00 0120:25
22 Jake McCabe 000 -2 20.03 1520:23
25 Brandon Carlo 000 +1 50.02 3419:48
51 Philippe Myers 000 -1 00.00 1518:26
44 Simon Benoit 000 -1 20.01 5215:36
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Joseph Woll 23518 .783 2.74 -2.26

New York Rangers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
93 Mika Zibanejad 123 +1 70.25 0121:12
13 Alexis Lafrenière 123 +1 70.45 0120:55
50 Will Cuylle 202 +3 91.16 1117:57
94 Gabe Perreault 000 -1 30.27 0017:48
24 Tye Kartye 000 0 30.09 2116:55
42 Noah Laba 000 0 50.14 5015:51
43 Conor Sheary 000 0 20.08 0015:03
14 Taylor Raddysh 011 +1 30.14 1113:40
22 Jonny Brodzinski 011 +1 40.08 2013:11
49 Jaroslav Chmelar 101 +1 20.18 0109:32
71 Juuso Parssinen 000 +1 00.00 1009:23
84 Adam Edstrom 000 +1 00.00 2008:54
Defense
23 Adam Fox 011 +2 50.05 0123:13
44 Vladislav Gavrikov 101 +1 40.26 0122:25
4 Braden Schneider 011 0 40.04 3019:56
17 Will Borgen 000 +1 00.00 2118:04
29 Matthew Robertson 000 +1 30.02 2017:51
6 Vincent Iorio 000 +1 30.21 1016:14
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Igor Shesterkin 32230 .938 2.96 +0.96

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
88 William Nylander R +1.15 +0.70 +0.03 +0.38 0.00 -0.02 +0.05 — 18:18
34 Auston Matthews C +1.04 0.00 +0.33 +0.58 0.00 +0.12 +0.01 — 20:46
63 Matias Maccelli L +0.99 +0.75 +0.27 +0.16 -0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 19:32
53 Easton Cowan R +0.88 +0.75 +0.10 +0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:48
25 Brandon Carlo D +0.75 0.00 +0.01 +0.55 0.00 0.00 +0.18 — 19:48
23 Matthew Knies L +0.58 +0.70 +0.15 -0.25 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:39
18 Steven Lorentz C +0.33 0.00 +0.06 +0.28 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 11:07
91 John Tavares C +0.28 +0.55 +0.26 -0.50 0.00 -0.04 0.00 — 17:11
44 Morgan Rielly D +0.26 0.00 +0.06 +0.37 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 20:47
19 Calle Jarnkrok C +0.12 0.00 +0.02 +0.11 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 11:40
11 Max Domi C +0.09 0.00 +0.24 -0.36 +0.15 +0.01 +0.05 — 13:09
26 Jacob Quillan C +0.05 0.00 +0.10 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 +0.12 — 9:53
28 Troy Stecher D -0.16 0.00 0.00 -0.21 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 20:25
51 Philippe Myers D -0.25 0.00 0.00 -0.46 0.00 0.00 +0.21 — 18:26
22 Jake McCabe D -0.25 0.00 +0.02 -0.50 0.00 0.00 +0.23 — 20:23
81 Dakota Joshua C -0.36 0.00 +0.08 -0.54 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 13:27
2 Simon Benoit D -0.43 0.00 +0.01 -0.53 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 15:36
89 Nick Robertson L -0.73 0.00 +0.17 -0.91 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 14:42
60 Joseph Woll G -2.26 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -2.26 57:00

New York Rangers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
50 Will Cuylle L +2.72 +1.50 +0.76 +0.40 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 17:57
13 Alexis Lafrenière L +2.68 +2.15 +0.29 +0.22 0.00 -0.01 +0.03 — 20:55
93 Mika Zibanejad C +2.65 +2.00 +0.16 +0.41 0.00 -0.02 +0.09 — 21:12
23 Adam Fox D +1.64 +0.55 +0.03 +0.99 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 23:13
44 Vladislav Gavrikov D +1.45 +0.75 +0.17 +0.52 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 22:25
31 Igor Shesterkin G +0.96 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.96 59:56
14 Taylor Raddysh R +0.71 +0.70 +0.09 -0.13 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 13:40
49 Jaroslav Chmelar R +0.64 +0.75 +0.12 -0.28 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 9:32
22 Jonny Brodzinski C +0.50 +0.55 +0.06 -0.08 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 13:11
43 Conor Sheary L +0.40 0.00 +0.05 +0.37 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:03
4 Braden Schneider D +0.33 +0.70 +0.03 -0.35 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 19:56
24 Tye Kartye L +0.26 0.00 +0.06 +0.15 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 16:55
42 Noah Laba C +0.21 0.00 +0.09 +0.13 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:51
6 Vincent Iorio D +0.18 0.00 +0.13 -0.09 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 16:14
84 Adam Edstrom C +0.13 0.00 0.00 +0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 8:54
94 Gabe Perreault R +0.03 0.00 +0.18 -0.08 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 17:48
17 Will Borgen D +0.03 0.00 0.00 -0.17 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 18:04
29 Matthew Robertson D -0.10 0.00 +0.01 -0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:51
71 Juuso Parssinen C -0.23 0.00 0.00 -0.08 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 9:23

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.