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Buffalo SabresBUF 5–1 Final Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT

Thursday, March 5, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Buffalo SabresBUF 131 5 26
Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT 100 1 28
Playoff odds, % Change
PIT -3.2
BUF +1.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 5, 2026 6:24 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
12:00 BUF Ryan McLeod (12)SH Unassisted · backhand xG 0.23 1–0 ▶
14:48 PIT Bryan Rust (21)SH Ben Kindel (15) · wrist xG 0.30 1–1 ▶
2nd Period
4:10 BUF Josh Norris (9)PP Josh Doan (23), Bowen Byram (22) · wrist xG 0.49 2–1 ▶
6:18 BUF Alex Tuch (25)SH Owen Power (15), Tage Thompson (32) · tip-in xG 0.10 3–1 ▶
10:30 BUF Owen Power (6) Josh Norris (13), Noah Ostlund (12) · wrist xG 0.10 4–1 ▶
3rd Period
16:53 BUF Mattias Samuelsson (12)EN Unassisted · wrist xG 0.52 5–1 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

BUF 64%Deserve to win36% PIT
BUFPIT
4.14Expected goals2.74
5Goals (no shootout)1
1.60Expected goals, 5 on 51.61
61Shot attempts56
48Unblocked attempts41
26Shots on goal28

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
5:40 BUF xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced PIT 1.23–0.18
In xG over 10 minutes, 15:40 of the 1st to 5:40 of the 2nd; goals 1–0
3rd Period
14:33 PIT Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Silovs, down 4–1
With 5:27 left; BUF scored at 16:53 of the 3rd (5–1)

Shot map

BUF shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ PIT shoots
Josh Doan: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 0:36) Tage Thompson: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 1:33) Connor Dewar: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:40) Justin Brazeau: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:36) Michael Kesselring: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:57) Anthony Mantha: snap, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:10) Evgeni Malkin: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 3:19) Evgeni Malkin: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 3:20) Erik Karlsson: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 3:44) Josh Doan: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 5:57) Josh Norris: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 6:00) Josh Doan: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 6:14) Noah Ostlund: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 6:19) Jason Zucker: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 7:45) Josh Norris: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 8:54) Bowen Byram: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 9:38) Ryan McLeod: slap, 29 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 10:08) Erik Karlsson: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 10:39) Michael Kesselring: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:25) Egor Chinakhov: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 16:52) Jack Quinn: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 18:19) Jack Quinn: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 18:37) Josh Doan: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 1:18) Tage Thompson: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 1:43) Tage Thompson: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 1:50) Bryan Rust: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 2:36) Jason Zucker: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 3:09) Josh Doan: deflected, 7 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 4:07) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 5:06) Alex Tuch: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 5:37) Blake Lizotte: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 5:45) Avery Hayes: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:14) Bryan Rust: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 8:31) Rickard Rakell: bat, 12 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 8:32) Rickard Rakell: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 8:37) Erik Karlsson: wrist, 95 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 9:28) Egor Chinakhov: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 9:30) Josh Doan: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 10:14) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 10:20) Zach Benson: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 10:45) Connor Dewar: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:55) Alex Tuch: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 12:37) Rickard Rakell: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 13:00) Egor Chinakhov: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 16:02) Bryan Rust: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 16:15) Noel Acciari: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 17:36) Connor Clifton: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 18:02) Bryan Rust: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 18:37) Rickard Rakell: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 18:39) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 18:51) Erik Karlsson: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:03) Bryan Rust: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 19:12) Kris Letang: wrist, 74 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 19:42) Mattias Samuelsson: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:37) Josh Dunne: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 2:40) Connor Dewar: wrist, 94 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 2:57) Josh Doan: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 3:24) Tage Thompson: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:39) Peyton Krebs: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:59) Jason Zucker: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 4:07) Michael Kesselring: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 4:28) Josh Dunne: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 5:20) Josh Doan: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 5:32) Blake Lizotte: backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 5:54) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 7:29) Josh Doan: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 7:52) Rasmus Dahlin: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 8:25) Jason Zucker: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 8:33) Owen Power: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 9:08) Rickard Rakell: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:07) Kris Letang: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:59) Ryan Shea: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 11:41) Anthony Mantha: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 11:52) Bryan Rust: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 12:46) Justin Brazeau: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 14:03) Noel Acciari: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 14:09) Justin Brazeau: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 14:35) Justin Brazeau: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 14:45) Tommy Novak: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 16:06) Michael Kesselring: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:41) Bowen Byram: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 18:31) Jack Quinn: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 18:44) Avery Hayes: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 19:59) Ryan McLeod: GOAL, backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.23 (P1 12:00) Bryan Rust: GOAL, wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.30 (P1 14:48) Josh Norris: GOAL, wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.49 (P2 4:10) Alex Tuch: GOAL, tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 6:18) Owen Power: GOAL, wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 10:30) Mattias Samuelsson: GOAL, wrist, 137 ft, xG 0.52 (P3 16:53)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Buffalo Sabres

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
72 Tage Thompson 011 0 70.15 2118:43
91 Josh Doan 011 0 90.68 0018:28
71 Ryan McLeod 101 +2 20.36 0018:23
9 Josh Norris 112 0 30.64 0017:41
89 Alex Tuch 101 +2 40.30 1117:37
86 Noah Ostlund 011 +2 20.02 0016:42
29 Beck Malenstyn 000 0 20.00 5214:25
17 Jason Zucker 000 -1 40.37 0114:11
6 Zach Benson 000 +1 10.09 2113:22
22 Jack Quinn 000 +1 40.30 0011:49
19 Peyton Krebs 000 0 10.01 4110:35
44 Josh Dunne 000 0 20.14 2008:37
Defense
24 Bowen Byram 011 0 40.04 0022:32
26 Rasmus Dahlin 000 +1 60.34 1021:29
23 Mattias Samuelsson 101 +3 20.53 0321:19
25 Owen Power 112 +3 30.10 1120:45
7 Michael Kesselring 000 0 40.05 1012:58
73 Zach Metsa 000 0 10.00 1011:00
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen 28127 .964 2.74 +1.74

Pittsburgh Penguins

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
17 Bryan Rust 101 +1 80.70 0019:53
67 Rickard Rakell 000 -1 50.35 2018:34
59 Egor Chinakhov 000 -4 40.22 1017:27
46 Blake Lizotte 000 0 20.30 1116:44
39 Anthony Mantha 000 -1 40.16 0015:58
52 Noel Acciari 000 0 30.18 1215:27
18 Tommy Novak 000 -2 30.05 0015:03
81 Ben Kindel 011 -2 10.00 1014:52
19 Connor Dewar 000 0 40.02 3014:43
16 Justin Brazeau 000 -1 40.18 2014:13
85 Avery Hayes 000 -2 30.04 0012:43
71 Evgeni Malkin 000 0 20.16 0005:54
Defense
65 Erik Karlsson 000 -1 80.16 0123:05
6 Ryan Shea 000 +1 10.09 0218:30
49 Samuel Girard 000 -1 00.00 1318:02
75 Connor Clifton 000 0 10.13 2217:55
58 Kris Letang 000 -3 30.02 3017:09
29 Parker Wotherspoon 000 -1 00.00 1014:54
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Arturs Silovs 25421 .840 3.62 -0.38

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Buffalo Sabres

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
9 Josh Norris C +2.27 +1.45 +0.41 +0.41 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:41
1 Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G +1.74 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.74 59:24
91 Josh Doan R +1.63 +0.70 +0.44 +0.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 18:28
25 Owen Power D +1.61 +1.45 +0.07 +0.04 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 20:45
23 Mattias Samuelsson D +1.20 +0.75 +0.34 -0.02 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 21:19
71 Ryan McLeod C +1.16 +0.75 +0.23 +0.32 -0.15 +0.01 0.00 — 18:23
86 Noah Ostlund C +1.02 +0.55 +0.01 +0.47 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:42
4 Bowen Byram D +0.77 +0.55 +0.03 +0.21 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 22:32
26 Rasmus Dahlin D +0.60 0.00 +0.22 +0.15 +0.22 0.00 0.00 — 21:29
17 Jason Zucker L +0.59 0.00 +0.24 +0.32 0.00 +0.01 +0.01 — 14:11
89 Alex Tuch R +0.55 +0.75 +0.19 -0.41 0.00 -0.02 +0.03 — 17:37
22 Jack Quinn R +0.38 0.00 +0.20 +0.07 +0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 11:49
44 Josh Dunne C +0.35 0.00 +0.09 +0.22 0.00 +0.03 0.00 — 8:37
72 Tage Thompson C +0.09 +0.55 +0.10 -0.82 +0.15 +0.04 +0.07 — 18:43
6 Zach Benson L +0.09 0.00 +0.06 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 13:22
8 Michael Kesselring D +0.05 0.00 +0.03 +0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:58
29 Beck Malenstyn L -0.02 0.00 0.00 +0.03 -0.15 +0.02 +0.08 — 14:25
73 Zach Metsa D -0.18 0.00 0.00 -0.14 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 11:00
19 Peyton Krebs C -0.62 0.00 +0.01 -0.69 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 10:35

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
17 Bryan Rust R +1.30 +0.75 +0.45 +0.14 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 19:53
5 Ryan Shea D +0.80 0.00 +0.06 +0.63 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 18:30
75 Connor Clifton D +0.79 0.00 +0.08 +0.61 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 17:55
67 Rickard Rakell R +0.39 0.00 +0.23 +0.17 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 18:34
81 Ben Kindel C +0.35 +0.70 0.00 -0.17 -0.15 -0.03 0.00 — 14:52
55 Noel Acciari C +0.27 0.00 +0.12 +0.04 0.00 +0.01 +0.10 — 15:27
49 Samuel Girard D +0.21 0.00 0.00 +0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 18:02
58 Kris Letang D +0.20 0.00 +0.01 +0.21 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:09
46 Blake Lizotte C +0.18 0.00 +0.19 -0.06 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 16:44
39 Anthony Mantha R +0.17 0.00 +0.11 -0.05 +0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 15:58
71 Evgeni Malkin C +0.09 0.00 +0.10 +0.25 -0.22 -0.02 -0.02 — 5:54
59 Egor Chinakhov R +0.03 0.00 +0.15 -0.10 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:27
19 Connor Dewar C +0.02 0.00 +0.01 +0.02 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 14:43
18 Tommy Novak C 0.00 0.00 +0.03 +0.03 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 — 15:03
16 Justin Brazeau R -0.10 0.00 +0.11 -0.20 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:13
37 Arturs Silovs G -0.38 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.38 55:54
85 Avery Hayes R -0.45 0.00 +0.03 -0.48 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:43
65 Erik Karlsson D -0.87 0.00 +0.10 -0.83 -0.15 0.00 +0.01 — 23:05
28 Parker Wotherspoon D -0.87 0.00 0.00 -0.96 +0.15 0.00 -0.06 — 14:54

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.