Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Shot quality
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken,
the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
COL 47%Deserve to win53% DAL
COL
DAL
3.40
Expected goals
4.01
4
Goals (no shootout)
4
1.47
Expected goals, 5 on 5
2.31
58
Shot attempts
49
40
Unblocked attempts
37
29
Shots on goal
21
Game notes
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is
counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the
shots' expected goals (xG).
1st Period
16:10
DAL
xG swing
xG swing · Out-chanced COL 1.28–0.20
In xG over 10 minutes, 6:10 to 16:10 of the 1st; goals 3–0
2nd Period
1:52
COL
Goalie
Goalie · Blackwood −2.5 goals saved
4 goals on 1.51 xG, 11 shots on goal
1:52
COL
Goalie change
Goalie change · Wedgewood in for Blackwood
1:52 of the 2nd; Blackwood had allowed 4 goals on 11 shots (1.51 xG)
3rd Period
2:43
DAL
Deserve to win
Deserve to win · DAL takes the lead, 62–38%
COL had led since 2:36 of the 1st, by as much as 78%
7:30
DAL
xG swing
xG swing · Out-chanced COL 1.28–0.02
In xG over 10 minutes, 17:50 of the 2nd to 7:50 of the 3rd; neither team scored
11:30
DAL
No shift
No shift · Hintz, 15:28 on the bench
No shift after 15:38 of the 2nd; 14 shifts (11:26) before that
18:13
COL
Pulled goalie
Pulled goalie · Pulled Wedgewood, down 4–3
With 1:47 left; COL scored at 19:45 of the 3rd (4–4)
Overtime
4:44
COL
Goalie
Goalie · Wedgewood +2.1 goals saved
0 goals on 2.07 xG, 10 shots on goal
Shot map
COL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ DAL shoots
About these numbers
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot
from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the
share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how
often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count
as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map
leaves them out.
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a
player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays,
all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.
