Saturday, March 7, 2026
Playoff odds, %
Change
NJD
+0.6
NYR
-0.0
How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 7, 2026 3:00 PM EST.
Highlights
Shot quality
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken,
the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
NYR 21%Deserve to win 79% NJD
NYR NJD
1.95 Expected goals 4.70
3 Goals (no shootout) 6
1.19 Expected goals, 5 on 5 2.19
46 Shot attempts 66
33 Unblocked attempts 54
20 Shots on goal 35
Game notes
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is
counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the
shots' expected goals (xG).
3rd Period
9:50
NJD
No shift
No shift · Tsyplakov, 15:34 on the bench
No shift after 16:53 of the 2nd; 7 shifts (5:17) before that
17:03
NYR
Pulled goalie
Pulled goalie · Pulled Quick, down 5–3
With 2:57 left; NJD scored at 19:28 of the 3rd (3–6)
Shot map
NYR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal → NJD shoots
Vladislav Gavrikov: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:25)
Adam Fox: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 0:32)
Brenden Dillon: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 2:37)
Maxim Tsyplakov: poke, 31 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 2:59)
Braden Schneider: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:20)
Timo Meier: slap, 34 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 5:29)
Luke Hughes: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 6:15)
Will Cuylle: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 6:42)
Timo Meier: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 7:15)
Nick Bjugstad: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 8:03)
Adam Edstrom: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 10:08)
Adam Edstrom: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 10:10)
Alexis Lafrenière: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 10:11)
Luke Hughes: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:21)
Luke Hughes: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 10:50)
Dawson Mercer: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 11:32)
Nico Hischier: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 11:48)
Tye Kartye: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:28)
Connor Brown: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 15:31)
Will Cuylle: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 16:02)
Gabe Perreault: tip-in, 24 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 17:15)
Dawson Mercer: tip-in, 25 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 19:35)
Dawson Mercer: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.24 (P1 19:37)
Timo Meier: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 0:20)
Maxim Tsyplakov: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:05)
Simon Nemec: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 3:07)
Jesper Bratt: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 3:25)
Brenden Dillon: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:02)
Jack Hughes: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 5:27)
Dougie Hamilton: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:49)
Noah Laba: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 6:26)
Conor Sheary: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 6:33)
Johnathan Kovacevic: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 7:13)
Timo Meier: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:05)
Alexis Lafrenière: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 9:23)
Alexis Lafrenière: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 9:23)
Gabe Perreault: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 9:29)
Nick Bjugstad: backhand, 20 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 11:12)
Timo Meier: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 11:56)
Luke Hughes: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 12:08)
Simon Nemec: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 12:33)
Jesper Bratt: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 13:50)
Timo Meier: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 13:57)
Timo Meier: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 14:59)
Nico Hischier: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 15:22)
Dougie Hamilton: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 16:17)
Vladislav Gavrikov: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 17:46)
Dawson Mercer: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 18:24)
Conor Sheary: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:38)
Gabe Perreault: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 2:50)
Dawson Mercer: wrist, 177 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 2:52)
Adam Fox: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 3:04)
Connor Brown: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 3:31)
Dougie Hamilton: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 3:37)
Simon Nemec: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 4:29)
Jonas Siegenthaler: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 5:36)
Dawson Mercer: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 6:24)
Johnathan Kovacevic: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:38)
Luke Hughes: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 6:55)
Jack Hughes: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 7:29)
Jesper Bratt: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 8:02)
Lenni Hameenaho: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 8:13)
Alexis Lafrenière: backhand, 22 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:00)
Alexis Lafrenière: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 10:21)
Adam Fox: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 12:04)
Mika Zibanejad: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 12:25)
Arseny Gritsyuk: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:23)
Will Borgen: slap, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:46)
Juuso Parssinen: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 13:47)
Juuso Parssinen: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 13:48)
Simon Nemec: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 14:58)
Jesper Bratt: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.26 (P3 15:16)
Timo Meier: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 15:50)
Vincent Trocheck: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 17:27)
Gabe Perreault: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 17:38)
Mika Zibanejad: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 18:03)
Vincent Trocheck: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 18:29)
Lenni Hameenaho: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 19:41)
Jesper Bratt: GOAL, snap, 22 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 1:06)
Will Borgen: GOAL, wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 6:26)
Vladislav Gavrikov: GOAL, slap, 49 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 8:36)
Dawson Mercer: GOAL, tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 19:47)
Jack Hughes: GOAL, slap, 49 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 15:52)
Will Cuylle: GOAL, slap, 19 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 16:53)
Nico Hischier: GOAL, wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.36 (P3 8:05)
Jack Hughes: GOAL, wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.25 (P3 16:56)
Jack Hughes: GOAL, wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.94 (P3 19:28)
About these numbers
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot
from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the
share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how
often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count
as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map
leaves them out.
All columns
Box score
New York Rangers
New Jersey Devils
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
Player ratings
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
New York Rangers
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
4 Braden Schneider D
+0.76
+0.70
+0.01
+0.11
0.00
0.00
-0.06
—
19:49
17 Will Borgen D
+0.73
+0.75
+0.03
-0.11
0.00
0.00
+0.06
—
16:25
42 Noah Laba C
+0.38
+0.70
+0.04
-0.44
0.00
+0.03
+0.05
—
15:26
44 Vladislav Gavrikov D
+0.36
+0.75
+0.06
-0.28
-0.15
0.00
-0.02
—
22:42
13 Alexis Lafrenière L
+0.31
0.00
+0.22
+0.09
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
20:44
84 Adam Edstrom C
+0.28
0.00
+0.09
+0.21
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
7:34
50 Will Cuylle L
+0.25
+0.75
+0.22
-0.53
-0.15
0.00
-0.04
—
16:46
71 Juuso Parssinen C
+0.23
0.00
+0.05
+0.04
+0.15
+0.01
-0.02
—
6:48
24 Tye Kartye L
+0.19
+0.55
+0.01
-0.54
+0.15
0.00
+0.02
—
14:15
93 Mika Zibanejad C
+0.18
0.00
+0.05
+0.09
0.00
-0.02
+0.05
—
24:00
49 Jaroslav Chmelar R
+0.17
0.00
0.00
+0.04
+0.15
0.00
-0.02
—
6:30
16 Vincent Trocheck C
+0.15
+0.70
+0.12
-0.61
-0.15
+0.04
+0.05
—
22:52
94 Gabe Perreault R
+0.07
0.00
+0.21
-0.09
0.00
-0.01
-0.04
—
22:21
14 Taylor Raddysh R
-0.05
+0.55
0.00
-0.72
0.00
0.00
+0.12
—
16:29
43 Conor Sheary L
-0.23
0.00
+0.11
-0.40
0.00
+0.01
+0.05
—
13:28
6 Vincent Iorio D
-0.25
0.00
0.00
-0.31
0.00
0.00
+0.06
—
9:09
29 Matthew Robertson D
-0.54
0.00
0.00
-0.54
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
16:12
23 Adam Fox D
-0.70
0.00
+0.05
-0.76
0.00
0.00
+0.01
—
26:28
32 Jonathan Quick G
-1.24
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
-1.24
57:35
New Jersey Devils
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
86 Jack Hughes C
+3.94
+2.80
+0.91
+0.41
-0.15
-0.01
-0.02
—
20:44
63 Jesper Bratt L
+2.69
+2.15
+0.39
+0.17
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
16:51
8 Johnathan Kovacevic D
+1.53
+1.10
+0.03
+0.39
0.00
0.00
+0.01
—
20:05
16 Connor Brown R
+1.45
+1.40
+0.06
-0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
17:44
91 Dawson Mercer C
+1.42
+0.75
+0.43
+0.22
0.00
-0.01
+0.03
—
20:07
13 Nico Hischier C
+1.31
+0.75
+0.28
+0.24
0.00
+0.01
+0.03
—
20:34
43 Luke Hughes D
+1.26
+0.70
+0.13
+0.42
0.00
0.00
+0.01
—
19:13
12 Cody Glass C
+1.19
+0.70
0.00
+0.40
0.00
+0.02
+0.07
—
14:28
81 Arseny Gritsyuk R
+1.08
+0.55
+0.01
+0.68
-0.15
-0.01
0.00
—
15:21
28 Timo Meier R
+0.97
0.00
+0.40
+0.40
+0.15
0.00
+0.02
—
19:25
17 Simon Nemec D
+0.95
0.00
+0.10
+0.87
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
19:57
5 Brenden Dillon D
+0.90
0.00
+0.06
+0.75
0.00
0.00
+0.08
—
19:41
29 Lenni Hameenaho R
+0.61
0.00
+0.01
+0.50
0.00
0.00
+0.10
—
11:55
7 Dougie Hamilton D
+0.50
+0.55
+0.11
-0.19
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
20:36
42 Maxim Tsyplakov R
+0.06
0.00
+0.03
+0.05
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
5:17
47 Paul Cotter L
-0.01
0.00
0.00
-0.14
+0.15
-0.02
0.00
—
6:11
72 Nick Bjugstad C
-0.17
0.00
+0.09
-0.07
-0.15
-0.04
0.00
—
6:27
71 Jonas Siegenthaler D
-0.27
0.00
0.00
-0.35
0.00
0.00
+0.08
—
18:12
25 Jacob Markstrom G
-1.05
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
-1.05
59:12
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a
player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays,
all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.