Tampa Bay LightningTBL 5–2 Final Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

Saturday, March 7, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Tampa Bay LightningTBL	4	0	1	5	33
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR	1	0	1	2	29

Playoff odds, %	Change
TBL	+0.4
TOR	-0.1

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 7, 2026 6:46 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
4:50	TOR	Matias Maccelli (13) William Nylander (38) · wrist xG 0.21	0–1 ▶
5:36	TBL	Ryan McDonagh (5) Nikita Kucherov (65), Brayden Point (23) · wrist xG 0.01	1–1 ▶
12:30	TBL	Jake Guentzel (27) Brayden Point (24), Nikita Kucherov (66) · backhand xG 0.22	2–1 ▶
13:48	TBL	Corey Perry (12) Brandon Hagel (28), Anthony Cirelli (21) · snap xG 0.24	3–1 ▶
15:06	TBL	Oliver Bjorkstrand (11)PP Nikita Kucherov (67), Jake Guentzel (40) · slap xG 0.16	4–1 ▶
2nd Period
No scoring
3rd Period
15:41	TBL	Brandon Hagel (29)EN Anthony Cirelli (22), Nikita Kucherov (68) · wrist xG 0.92	5–1
19:29	TOR	Nick Robertson (13) Unassisted · wrap-around xG 0.07	5–2

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TBL 64%Deserve to win36% TOR

TBL		TOR
4.25	Expected goals	2.52
5	Goals (no shootout)	2
2.42	Expected goals, 5 on 5	1.94
56	Shot attempts	47
44	Unblocked attempts	35
33	Shots on goal	29

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
13:48	TOR	Goalie	Goalie · Stolarz −2.1 goals saved 3 goals on 0.92 xG, 10 shots on goal
15:06	TBL	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · TBL takes the lead, 60–40% TOR had led since 4:50 of the 1st, by as much as 70%
3rd Period
15:30	TOR	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Stolarz, down 4–1 With 4:30 left; TBL scored at 15:41 of the 3rd (5–1)

Shot map

TBL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TOR shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Tampa Bay Lightning

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
38	Brandon Hagel	1	1	2	+2	5	1.10	0	0	18:50
86	Nikita Kucherov	0	4	4	+3	3	0.17	0	0	18:36
59	Jake Guentzel	1	1	2	+2	3	0.38	0	1	17:06
21	Brayden Point	0	2	2	+2	4	0.51	0	0	16:52
37	Yanni Gourde	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	0	16:33
71	Anthony Cirelli	0	2	2	+2	5	0.31	1	2	15:43
90	Corey Perry	1	0	1	0	5	0.52	0	0	14:58
28	Oliver Bjorkstrand	1	0	1	-1	2	0.19	3	1	14:56
29	Pontus Holmberg	0	0	0	-2	2	0.22	0	1	14:01
28	Zemgus Girgensons	0	0	0	-1	3	0.02	3	0	13:18
49	Scott Sabourin	0	0	0	0	1	0.09	2	0	10:07
94	Conor Geekie	0	0	0	0	2	0.01	5	0	10:04
Defense
77	Victor Hedman	0	0	0	0	3	0.02	3	0	20:54
43	Darren Raddysh	0	0	0	+1	9	0.55	3	0	20:45
81	Erik Cernak	0	0	0	+1	2	0.01	2	2	19:45
90	J.J. Moser	0	0	0	0	4	0.11	1	1	18:44
27	Ryan McDonagh	1	0	1	+2	2	0.02	1	1	17:25
51	Charle-Edouard D'Astous	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	1	2	16:04

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy	29	2	27	.931	2.52	+0.52

Toronto Maple Leafs

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
89	Matthew Knies	0	0	0	-2	2	0.24	1	1	19:58
34	Auston Matthews	0	0	0	-2	8	0.65	0	0	19:17
91	John Tavares	0	0	0	-1	2	0.15	1	2	19:13
88	William Nylander	0	1	1	-2	3	0.36	0	0	17:53
53	Easton Cowan	0	0	0	-1	3	0.10	1	1	15:18
14	Nick Robertson	1	0	1	+1	6	0.50	2	0	15:08
63	Matias Maccelli	1	0	1	+1	2	0.27	1	0	14:07
81	Dakota Joshua	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	4	0	14:06
11	Max Domi	0	0	0	+1	2	0.02	0	0	13:39
19	Calle Jarnkrok	0	0	0	-1	2	0.02	0	1	11:55
18	Steven Lorentz	0	0	0	-2	1	0.04	2	1	11:50
26	Jacob Quillan	0	0	0	-1	3	0.09	2	0	08:44
Defense
22	Jake McCabe	0	0	0	-2	1	0.00	2	1	22:11
44	Morgan Rielly	0	0	0	+1	4	0.01	2	2	20:39
25	Brandon Carlo	0	0	0	+1	1	0.00	2	1	19:56
95	Oliver Ekman-Larsson	0	0	0	-2	4	0.02	0	0	18:49
28	Troy Stecher	0	0	0	0	2	0.04	0	1	16:07
44	Simon Benoit	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	2	0	15:13

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Anthony Stolarz	32	4	28	.875	3.32	-0.68

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
86 Nikita Kucherov R	+3.72	+2.50	+0.11	+1.00	+0.15	0.00	-0.04	—	18:36
38 Brandon Hagel L	+3.02	+1.45	+0.71	+0.86	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	18:50
71 Anthony Cirelli C	+2.33	+1.25	+0.20	+0.77	0.00	-0.02	+0.12	—	15:43
59 Jake Guentzel C	+2.22	+1.30	+0.24	+0.68	0.00	-0.03	+0.03	—	17:06
21 Brayden Point C	+2.09	+1.25	+0.33	+0.52	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	16:52
10 Corey Perry R	+1.49	+0.75	+0.34	+0.44	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	14:58
27 Ryan McDonagh D	+1.01	+0.75	+0.01	+0.20	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	17:25
43 Darren Raddysh D	+0.75	0.00	+0.36	+0.54	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	20:45
77 Victor Hedman D	+0.72	0.00	+0.02	+0.69	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	20:54
81 Erik Cernak D	+0.69	0.00	+0.01	+0.58	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	19:45
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R	+0.62	+0.75	+0.12	-0.28	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	14:56
88 Andrei Vasilevskiy G	+0.52	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.52	59:19
46 Scott Sabourin R	+0.03	0.00	+0.06	+0.15	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	10:07
14 Conor Geekie C	-0.03	0.00	+0.01	+0.15	-0.15	-0.01	-0.02	—	10:04
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D	-0.23	0.00	0.00	-0.29	0.00	0.00	+0.06	—	16:04
90 J.J. Moser D	-0.24	0.00	+0.07	-0.36	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	18:44
37 Yanni Gourde C	-0.30	0.00	0.00	-0.44	+0.15	-0.03	+0.02	—	16:33
29 Pontus Holmberg R	-0.35	0.00	+0.14	-0.70	+0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	14:01
28 Zemgus Girgensons C	-0.98	0.00	+0.01	-1.00	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	13:18

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
89 Nick Robertson L	+1.75	+0.75	+0.32	+0.57	+0.15	0.00	-0.04	—	15:08
63 Matias Maccelli L	+1.54	+0.75	+0.18	+0.63	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	14:07
88 William Nylander R	+0.93	+0.70	+0.24	-0.04	0.00	+0.01	+0.02	—	17:53
34 Auston Matthews C	+0.60	0.00	+0.42	+0.12	0.00	+0.06	0.00	—	19:17
81 Dakota Joshua C	+0.56	0.00	0.00	+0.41	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	14:06
11 Max Domi C	+0.31	0.00	+0.01	+0.32	0.00	-0.03	0.00	—	13:39
44 Morgan Rielly D	0.00	0.00	+0.01	-0.10	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	20:39
91 John Tavares C	-0.05	0.00	+0.10	-0.26	0.00	+0.03	+0.08	—	19:13
25 Brandon Carlo D	-0.12	0.00	0.00	-0.02	-0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	19:56
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D	-0.15	0.00	+0.01	-0.18	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	18:49
22 Jake McCabe D	-0.18	0.00	0.00	-0.38	+0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	22:11
53 Easton Cowan R	-0.18	0.00	+0.07	-0.20	0.00	0.00	-0.05	—	15:18
28 Troy Stecher D	-0.40	0.00	+0.03	-0.30	-0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	16:07
23 Matthew Knies L	-0.55	0.00	+0.16	-0.71	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	19:58
2 Simon Benoit D	-0.62	0.00	0.00	-0.47	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	15:13
41 Anthony Stolarz G	-0.68	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.68	59:22
19 Calle Jarnkrok C	-0.78	0.00	+0.01	-0.85	0.00	+0.01	+0.05	—	11:55
26 Jacob Quillan C	-0.81	0.00	+0.06	-0.86	0.00	+0.02	-0.02	—	8:44
18 Steven Lorentz C	-1.01	0.00	+0.03	-1.08	0.00	-0.01	+0.05	—	11:50

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.