Carolina HurricanesCAR 4–5 Final Calgary FlamesCGY

Saturday, March 7, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Carolina HurricanesCAR	1	0	3	4	29
Calgary FlamesCGY	0	3	2	5	25

Playoff odds, %	Change
CGY	+0.1
CAR	-0.0

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 7, 2026 9:53 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
0:44	CAR	Seth Jarvis (27) Andrei Svechnikov (32), Sebastian Aho (40) · wrist xG 0.12	1–0 ▶
2nd Period
0:19	CGY	Ryan Strome (4) Olli Maatta (2), Martin Pospisil (1) · wrist xG 0.21	1–1 ▶
4:11	CGY	Joel Farabee (14) Morgan Frost (17), Blake Coleman (10) · wrist xG 0.16	1–2 ▶
7:06	CGY	Morgan Frost (14)PP Zayne Parekh (2), Ryan Strome (7) · wrist xG 0.20	1–3 ▶
3rd Period
2:24	CGY	Blake Coleman (14) Joel Farabee (13) · wrist xG 0.12	1–4 ▶
4:41	CAR	Sean Walker (6) Taylor Hall (21), Sebastian Aho (41) · wrist xG 0.15	2–4
5:43	CAR	Alexander Nikishin (8)PP Sebastian Aho (42), Seth Jarvis (24) · slap xG 0.06	3–4 ▶
17:42	CGY	Joel Farabee (15) Morgan Frost (18) · backhand xG 0.27	3–5
19:48	CAR	Andrei Svechnikov (23) K'Andre Miller (25), Seth Jarvis (25) · wrist xG 0.25	4–5

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

CAR 56%Deserve to win44% CGY

CAR		CGY
3.10	Expected goals	2.76
4	Goals (no shootout)	5
2.38	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.42
57	Shot attempts	45
47	Unblocked attempts	33
29	Shots on goal	25

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
7:10	CGY	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced CAR 1.57–0.10 In xG over 10 minutes, the end of the 1st to 10:00 of the 2nd; goals 3–0
9:45	CGY	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · CGY takes the lead, 63–37% CAR had led since 3:11 of the 1st, by as much as 79%
11:50	CGY	No shift	No shift · Whitecloud, 35:11 on the bench No shift after 17:06 of the 1st; 8 shifts (6:16) before that
3rd Period
17:42	CAR	Goalie	Goalie · Bussi −2.2 goals saved 5 goals on 2.76 xG, 25 shots on goal
18:13	CAR	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Bussi, down 5–3 With 1:47 left

Shot map

CAR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ CGY shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Carolina Hurricanes

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
24	Seth Jarvis	1	2	3	+2	5	0.44	1	1	19:29
20	Sebastian Aho	0	3	3	+1	4	0.04	1	0	18:20
22	Logan Stankoven	0	0	0	0	2	0.15	3	0	18:17
53	Jackson Blake	0	0	0	-1	3	0.27	0	1	16:56
37	Andrei Svechnikov	1	1	2	+1	6	0.44	0	0	16:01
11	Jordan Staal	0	0	0	-1	3	0.21	6	2	15:30
71	Taylor Hall	0	1	1	0	1	0.00	0	1	14:47
27	Nikolaj Ehlers	0	0	0	-2	4	0.26	0	0	14:40
48	Jordan Martinook	0	0	0	-2	4	0.21	0	1	12:28
50	Eric Robinson	0	0	0	0	3	0.23	0	0	10:33
77	Mark Jankowski	0	0	0	0	3	0.23	1	0	10:31
28	William Carrier	0	0	0	0	2	0.19	4	0	10:11
Defense
19	K'Andre Miller	0	1	1	-1	6	0.16	1	0	23:51
26	Sean Walker	1	0	1	-1	3	0.15	1	1	23:22
74	Jaccob Slavin	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	0	0	22:24
5	Jalen Chatfield	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	0	3	21:53
21	Alexander Nikishin	1	0	1	0	2	0.06	2	2	16:45
6	Mike Reilly	0	0	0	0	3	0.00	0	0	09:30

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Brandon Bussi	25	5	20	.800	2.76	-2.24

Calgary Flames

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
86	Joel Farabee	2	1	3	+1	6	0.74	1	0	18:30
11	Mikael Backlund	0	0	0	-1	3	0.03	1	0	18:03
20	Blake Coleman	1	1	2	+1	3	0.23	2	2	17:50
27	Matt Coronato	0	0	0	-2	3	0.00	0	0	17:26
16	Morgan Frost	1	2	3	+1	7	0.49	1	1	17:05
47	Connor Zary	0	0	0	+2	1	0.12	0	0	15:28
22	Ryan Strome	1	1	2	+1	2	0.25	2	0	15:07
17	Yegor Sharangovich	0	0	0	-1	2	0.06	0	1	13:18
76	Martin Pospisil	0	1	1	+1	2	0.32	3	0	12:10
17	John Beecher	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	12:07
43	Adam Klapka	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	5	1	10:57
94	Ryan Lomberg	0	0	0	0	3	0.30	2	0	10:47
Defense
7	Kevin Bahl	0	0	0	0	2	0.14	1	0	25:50
3	Olli Maatta	0	1	1	-1	1	0.02	0	5	23:54
37	Yan Kuznetsov	0	0	0	+1	3	0.04	3	0	21:37
94	Brayden Pachal	0	0	0	+2	1	0.00	4	1	20:20
19	Zayne Parekh	0	1	1	+1	4	0.00	0	0	19:02
28	Zach Whitecloud	0	0	0	-1	2	0.01	1	0	06:16

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Dustin Wolf	29	4	25	.862	3.10	-0.90

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Carolina Hurricanes

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
24 Seth Jarvis C	+2.90	+1.85	+0.28	+0.71	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	19:29
20 Sebastian Aho C	+2.34	+1.80	+0.03	+0.51	0.00	+0.02	-0.02	—	18:20
37 Andrei Svechnikov R	+1.61	+1.45	+0.29	-0.09	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	16:01
21 Alexander Nikishin D	+0.98	+0.75	+0.04	+0.10	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	16:45
77 Mark Jankowski L	+0.92	0.00	+0.15	+0.77	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	10:31
71 Taylor Hall L	+0.91	+0.70	0.00	+0.16	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	14:47
28 William Carrier L	+0.89	0.00	+0.13	+0.62	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	10:11
26 Sean Walker D	+0.52	+0.75	+0.10	-0.34	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	23:22
50 Eric Robinson L	+0.44	0.00	+0.15	+0.31	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	10:33
5 Jalen Chatfield D	+0.16	0.00	+0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	+0.15	—	21:53
19 K'Andre Miller D	+0.09	+0.70	+0.11	-0.42	-0.30	0.00	0.00	—	23:51
74 Jaccob Slavin D	+0.04	0.00	+0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	22:24
6 Mike Reilly D	-0.16	0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	9:30
53 Jackson Blake R	-0.27	0.00	+0.18	-0.44	0.00	0.00	-0.01	—	16:56
22 Logan Stankoven C	-0.37	0.00	+0.10	-0.44	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	18:17
27 Nikolaj Ehlers L	-0.73	0.00	+0.17	-1.03	+0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	14:40
48 Jordan Martinook L	-0.74	0.00	+0.14	-0.92	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	12:28
11 Jordan Staal C	-0.94	0.00	+0.14	-1.18	0.00	+0.02	+0.08	—	15:30
32 Brandon Bussi G	-2.24	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-2.24	58:26

Calgary Flames

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
16 Morgan Frost C	+3.66	+2.15	+0.32	+1.08	0.00	+0.09	+0.03	—	17:05
86 Joel Farabee L	+3.62	+2.20	+0.48	+0.92	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	18:30
22 Ryan Strome C	+2.16	+1.30	+0.16	+0.85	0.00	-0.11	-0.04	—	15:07
20 Blake Coleman L	+2.06	+1.30	+0.15	+0.56	0.00	-0.01	+0.06	—	17:50
3 Olli Maatta D	+1.81	+0.70	+0.01	+0.71	+0.15	0.00	+0.23	—	23:54
76 Martin Pospisil C	+1.47	+0.55	+0.20	+0.71	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	12:10
47 Connor Zary C	+1.06	0.00	+0.08	+0.98	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	15:28
94 Brayden Pachal D	+0.91	0.00	0.00	+1.08	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	20:20
19 Zayne Parekh D	+0.77	+0.70	0.00	+0.11	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	19:02
37 Yan Kuznetsov D	+0.30	0.00	+0.03	+0.25	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	21:37
70 Ryan Lomberg L	+0.06	0.00	+0.20	-0.15	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	10:47
43 Adam Klapka R	-0.31	0.00	0.00	-0.21	-0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	10:57
18 John Beecher C	-0.37	0.00	0.00	-0.50	+0.15	+0.02	-0.04	—	12:07
28 Zach Whitecloud D	-0.55	0.00	+0.01	-0.56	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	6:16
7 Kevin Bahl D	-0.85	0.00	+0.09	-0.96	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	25:50
32 Dustin Wolf G	-0.90	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.90	59:46
27 Matt Coronato R	-0.93	0.00	0.00	-1.08	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	17:26
17 Yegor Sharangovich C	-0.97	0.00	+0.04	-1.05	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	13:18
11 Mikael Backlund C	-1.04	0.00	+0.02	-1.05	0.00	-0.03	+0.02	—	18:03

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.