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Minnesota WildMIN 2–3 Final/SO Colorado AvalancheCOL

Sunday, March 8, 2026

Final/SO 1st2nd3rdOTSO T SOG
Minnesota WildMIN 00201 2 34
Colorado AvalancheCOL 01102 3 36
Playoff odds, % Change
MIN -0.0
COL +0.0

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 8, 2026 2:05 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
12:19 COL Nathan MacKinnon (43) Nazem Kadri (30) · snap xG 0.13 0–1 ▶
3rd Period
4:17 MIN Kirill Kaprizov (36)PP Quinn Hughes (57), Joel Eriksson Ek (26) · wrist xG 0.05 1–1 ▶
7:01 MIN Nico Sturm (4)SH Brock Faber (28) · wrist xG 0.16 2–1 ▶
12:39 COL Nicolas Roy (6) Brett Kulak (10), Joel Kiviranta (6) · tip-in xG 0.10 2–2 ▶
Overtime
No scoring
Shootout
MIN Mats Zuccarello vs Scott Wedgewood Missed
COL Valeri Nichushkin vs Jesper Wallstedt Goal
MIN Matt Boldy vs Scott Wedgewood Goal
COL Martin Necas vs Jesper Wallstedt Saved
MIN Kirill Kaprizov vs Scott Wedgewood Saved
COL Nazem Kadri vs Jesper Wallstedt Saved
MIN Vladimir Tarasenko vs Scott Wedgewood Saved
COL Nathan MacKinnon vs Jesper Wallstedt Goal

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

MIN 22%Deserve to win78% COL
MINCOL
2.68Expected goals4.70
2Goals (no shootout)2
1.76Expected goals, 5 on 52.41
65Shot attempts80
50Unblocked attempts57
34Shots on goal36

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
10:00 COL xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced MIN 1.40–0.15
In xG over 10 minutes, 1:20 to 11:20 of the 1st; neither team scored
2nd Period
2:15 MIN Goalie Goalie · Wallstedt +2.0 goals saved
0 goals on 2.01 xG, 16 shots on goal

Shot map

MIN shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ COL shoots
Kirill Kaprizov: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 0:16) Kirill Kaprizov: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:36) Nazem Kadri: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 1:39) Nazem Kadri: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 1:40) Martin Necas: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 1:59) Martin Necas: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 2:06) Devon Toews: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 3:13) Zach Bogosian: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 3:53) Nicolas Roy: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 4:29) Martin Necas: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 4:45) Danila Yurov: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 4:55) Danila Yurov: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 4:56) Valeri Nichushkin: backhand, 33 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:35) Ross Colton: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 5:38) Sam Malinski: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 6:20) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 6:59) Nazem Kadri: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 7:14) Brent Burns: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 8:29) Valeri Nichushkin: wrist, 79 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 9:00) Joel Kiviranta: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.24 (P1 9:25) Nicolas Roy: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:05) Quinn Hughes: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:37) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 11:16) Nazem Kadri: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 11:17) Michael McCarron: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:47) Nick Foligno: backhand, 23 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 13:26) Quinn Hughes: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 15:13) Kirill Kaprizov: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 15:17) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 16:04) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 16:33) Zach Bogosian: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 16:52) Sam Malinski: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 17:19) Joel Kiviranta: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 17:21) Matt Boldy: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 18:18) Danila Yurov: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 19:21) Michael McCarron: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:53) Devon Toews: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 0:13) Martin Necas: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 0:32) Martin Necas: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 1:54) Gavin Brindley: wrap-around, 8 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 2:15) Zakhar Bardakov: backhand, 18 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 3:31) Parker Kelly: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 3:44) Matt Boldy: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 4:47) Parker Kelly: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 5:59) Vladimir Tarasenko: backhand, 21 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 6:09) Nazem Kadri: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 6:47) Nathan MacKinnon: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 6:59) Mats Zuccarello: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 7:56) Mats Zuccarello: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 7:57) Mats Zuccarello: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:58) Kirill Kaprizov: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 8:31) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 8:55) Vladimir Tarasenko: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:45) Jonas Brodin: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:50) Ross Colton: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 11:02) Josh Manson: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 11:20) Nathan MacKinnon: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 11:32) Ross Colton: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 11:36) Gavin Brindley: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 12:28) Ryan Hartman: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 12:57) Jake Middleton: tip-in, 26 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 13:52) Vladimir Tarasenko: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:57) Ross Colton: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 14:57) Matt Boldy: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 15:31) Matt Boldy: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 16:33) Joel Eriksson Ek: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 17:20) Brock Faber: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:31) Bobby Brink: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 18:29) Ryan Hartman: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 18:41) Yakov Trenin: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 19:00) Danila Yurov: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 19:01) Devon Toews: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:39) Kirill Kaprizov: wrist, 99 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 0:21) Bobby Brink: backhand, 22 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 0:45) Matt Boldy: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 0:51) Zach Bogosian: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:33) Nicolas Roy: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 2:10) Michael McCarron: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 3:02) Nazem Kadri: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:13) Ross Colton: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 3:19) Jonas Brodin: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:28) Nathan MacKinnon: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 6:28) Martin Necas: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 6:33) Parker Kelly: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 8:19) Ryan Hartman: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 9:02) Cale Makar: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 9:26) Nathan MacKinnon: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 9:44) Nathan MacKinnon: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 10:01) Martin Necas: between-legs, 8 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 10:37) Brock Nelson: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 10:37) Martin Necas: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 11:16) Michael McCarron: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 14:29) Matt Boldy: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 15:24) Joel Eriksson Ek: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 16:11) Bobby Brink: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 16:33) Jared Spurgeon: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 16:34) Martin Necas: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.18 (OT 0:58) Cale Makar: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.11 (OT 1:14) Nazem Kadri: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.18 (OT 1:18) Nazem Kadri: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.12 (OT 1:44) Bobby Brink: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.13 (OT 2:06) Quinn Hughes: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.04 (OT 4:13) Kirill Kaprizov: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.09 (OT 4:38) Nathan MacKinnon: GOAL, snap, 22 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 12:19) Kirill Kaprizov: GOAL, wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 4:17) Nico Sturm: GOAL, wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 7:01) Nicolas Roy: GOAL, tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 12:39)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Minnesota Wild

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
97 Kirill Kaprizov 101 -2 100.21 1022:41
12 Matt Boldy 000 0 70.40 3022:26
14 Joel Eriksson Ek 011 0 30.12 0421:34
36 Mats Zuccarello 000 -2 30.23 0017:48
38 Ryan Hartman 000 -2 30.13 3117:30
13 Yakov Trenin 000 0 10.09 4015:03
91 Vladimir Tarasenko 000 0 30.06 1014:36
10 Bobby Brink 000 0 40.33 1312:52
22 Danila Yurov 000 0 50.33 3112:39
47 Michael McCarron 000 0 40.34 2310:44
71 Nick Foligno 000 +1 20.02 1009:00
78 Nico Sturm 101 +1 10.16 2107:47
Defense
7 Brock Faber 011 -1 20.01 0128:14
43 Quinn Hughes 011 -2 60.06 0126:48
25 Jonas Brodin 000 0 30.03 0417:53
55 Jake Middleton 000 +1 20.04 2017:48
46 Jared Spurgeon 000 0 20.06 0117:48
24 Zach Bogosian 000 0 40.03 2113:23
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jesper Wallstedt 36234 .944 4.70 +2.70

Colorado Avalanche

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
88 Martin Necas 000 +1 91.03 1025:01
11 Brock Nelson 000 0 40.07 0024:06
29 Nathan MacKinnon 101 +1 110.86 0022:29
91 Nazem Kadri 011 +1 80.74 3121:47
43 Valeri Nichushkin 000 -1 60.01 0015:42
18 Jack Drury 000 +1 00.00 3014:58
17 Parker Kelly 000 0 50.19 4214:06
22 Joel Kiviranta 011 +1 30.36 2113:11
79 Ross Colton 000 -1 60.31 4012:41
10 Nicolas Roy 101 +1 40.44 0012:16
54 Gavin Brindley 000 -1 20.14 0110:05
93 Zakhar Bardakov 000 0 10.06 0106:12
Defense
7 Devon Toews 000 0 30.15 0025:43
8 Cale Makar 000 +1 80.15 1125:00
84 Brent Burns 000 -1 20.06 0518:41
27 Brett Kulak 011 +1 20.00 1018:04
70 Sam Malinski 000 +1 40.08 0017:44
42 Josh Manson 000 0 20.04 1214:14
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Scott Wedgewood 34232 .941 2.68 +0.68

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Minnesota Wild

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
30 Jesper Wallstedt G +2.70 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +2.70 64:29
78 Nico Sturm C +0.83 +0.75 +0.10 -0.10 0.00 +0.01 +0.07 — 7:47
14 Joel Eriksson Ek C +0.81 +0.55 +0.08 -0.04 0.00 +0.03 +0.20 — 21:34
47 Michael McCarron C +0.50 0.00 +0.22 +0.12 0.00 +0.01 +0.15 — 10:44
12 Matt Boldy L +0.38 0.00 +0.26 +0.11 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 22:26
71 Nick Foligno L +0.26 0.00 +0.02 +0.26 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 9:00
10 Bobby Brink R +0.25 0.00 +0.22 -0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.11 — 12:52
46 Jared Spurgeon D +0.21 0.00 +0.04 +0.12 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:48
22 Danila Yurov R +0.18 0.00 +0.22 -0.04 0.00 -0.03 +0.03 — 12:39
7 Brock Faber D +0.16 +0.70 +0.01 -0.56 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 28:14
25 Jonas Brodin D +0.14 0.00 +0.02 -0.06 0.00 0.00 +0.18 — 17:53
13 Yakov Trenin C +0.07 0.00 +0.06 +0.18 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 15:03
24 Zach Bogosian D -0.17 0.00 +0.02 -0.20 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 13:23
5 Jake Middleton D -0.18 0.00 +0.03 -0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:48
91 Vladimir Tarasenko R -0.20 0.00 +0.04 -0.22 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:36
97 Kirill Kaprizov L -0.50 +0.75 +0.14 -1.35 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 22:41
43 Quinn Hughes D -0.53 +0.70 +0.04 -1.14 -0.15 0.00 +0.01 — 26:48
36 Mats Zuccarello R -0.69 0.00 +0.15 -0.82 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:48
38 Ryan Hartman R -0.74 0.00 +0.08 -1.05 +0.15 +0.03 +0.05 — 17:30

Colorado Avalanche

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
29 Nathan MacKinnon C +1.88 +0.75 +0.56 +0.76 -0.15 -0.02 -0.02 — 22:29
91 Nazem Kadri C +1.71 +0.70 +0.48 +0.30 +0.15 0.00 +0.07 — 21:47
27 Brett Kulak D +1.42 +0.70 0.00 +0.72 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 18:04
10 Nicolas Roy C +1.25 +0.75 +0.29 +0.37 -0.15 -0.01 0.00 — 12:16
94 Joel Kiviranta L +1.14 +0.55 +0.23 +0.35 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 13:11
8 Cale Makar D +1.11 0.00 +0.10 +0.69 +0.30 0.00 +0.03 — 25:00
88 Martin Necas C +0.78 0.00 +0.67 +0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 25:01
17 Parker Kelly C +0.72 0.00 +0.12 +0.51 0.00 +0.01 +0.08 — 14:06
41 Scott Wedgewood G +0.68 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.68 63:56
42 Josh Manson D +0.67 0.00 +0.03 +0.39 +0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 14:14
70 Sam Malinski D +0.63 0.00 +0.05 +0.58 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:44
54 Gavin Brindley C +0.57 0.00 +0.09 +0.43 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 10:05
7 Devon Toews D +0.50 0.00 +0.10 +0.38 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 25:43
93 Zakhar Bardakov C +0.33 0.00 +0.04 +0.26 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 6:12
18 Jack Drury C +0.32 0.00 0.00 +0.35 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 14:58
13 Valeri Nichushkin R +0.05 0.00 +0.01 +0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:42
20 Ross Colton C -0.06 0.00 +0.20 -0.11 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 12:41
11 Brock Nelson C -0.27 0.00 +0.05 -0.33 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 24:06
84 Brent Burns D -0.46 0.00 +0.04 -0.73 0.00 0.00 +0.23 — 18:41

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.