Tampa Bay LightningTBL 7–8 Final Buffalo SabresBUF

Sunday, March 8, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Tampa Bay LightningTBL	0	4	3	7	28
Buffalo SabresBUF	1	3	4	8	42

Playoff odds, %	Change
BUF	+0.5
TBL	-0.2

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 8, 2026 5:24 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
8:26	BUF	Josh Doan (20)PP Tage Thompson (33), Bowen Byram (23) · wrist xG 0.10	0–1 ▶
2nd Period
2:15	BUF	Jason Zucker (18)PP Rasmus Dahlin (43), Tage Thompson (34) · snap xG 0.13	0–2 ▶
5:10	BUF	Alex Tuch (26)PP Tage Thompson (35), Noah Ostlund (14) · tip-in xG 0.12	0–3 ▶
7:55	TBL	Corey Perry (13) Nikita Kucherov (69), Darren Raddysh (39) · backhand xG 0.16	1–3 ▶
11:07	BUF	Alex Tuch (27)SH Bowen Byram (24) · backhand xG 0.19	1–4 ▶
12:26	TBL	Nikita Kucherov (33)PP Darren Raddysh (40) · wrist xG 0.05	2–4 ▶
14:46	TBL	Zemgus Girgensons (8) Yanni Gourde (16), J.J. Moser (16) · snap xG 0.16	3–4 ▶
17:37	TBL	J.J. Moser (6) Conor Geekie (2) · wrist xG 0.25	4–4 ▶
3rd Period
0:59	TBL	Nikita Kucherov (34) Brandon Hagel (29), J.J. Moser (17) · snap xG 0.11	5–4 ▶
5:46	TBL	Brayden Point (16) Unassisted · xG 0.92	6–4 ▶
6:12	BUF	Sam Carrick (5) Zach Benson (21), Michael Kesselring (2) · wrist xG 0.07	6–5 ▶
9:48	TBL	Brandon Hagel (30) Anthony Cirelli (23), Darren Raddysh (41) · wrist xG 0.19	7–5 ▶
11:03	BUF	Rasmus Dahlin (13) Tage Thompson (36), Bowen Byram (25) · wrist xG 0.16	7–6 ▶
14:29	BUF	Jason Zucker (19) Ryan McLeod (33) · backhand xG 0.14	7–7 ▶
15:43	BUF	Josh Doan (21)PP Jason Zucker (15), Rasmus Dahlin (44) · wrist xG 0.47	7–8 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TBL 58%Deserve to win42% BUF

TBL		BUF
4.49	Expected goals	4.44
7	Goals (no shootout)	8
3.53	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.07
63	Shot attempts	61
45	Unblocked attempts	53
28	Shots on goal	42

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
11:07	TBL	Goalie	Goalie · Johansson −2.2 goals saved 4 goals on 1.80 xG, 22 shots on goal
19:10	TBL	No shift	No shift · Cernak, 29:27 on the bench No shift after 0:02 of the 2nd; 12 shifts (6:47) before that
3rd Period
0:59	BUF	Goalie	Goalie · Luukkonen −2.3 goals saved 5 goals on 2.65 xG, 17 shots on goal
1:37	TBL	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · TBL takes the lead, 62–38% BUF had led since 5:30 of the 1st, by as much as 66%
1:40	TBL	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced BUF 1.46–0.36 In xG over 10 minutes, 11:40 of the 2nd to 1:40 of the 3rd; goals 4–0
14:30	BUF	No shift	No shift · Metsa, 14:01 on the bench No shift after 4:28 of the 3rd; 13 shifts (8:55) before that
19:50	BUF	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced TBL 1.56–0.23 In xG over 10 minutes, 9:50 to 19:50 of the 3rd; goals 3–0

Shot map

TBL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ BUF shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Tampa Bay Lightning

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
86	Nikita Kucherov	2	1	3	+1	7	0.47	5	0	19:15
71	Anthony Cirelli	0	1	1	+1	3	0.17	4	0	18:55
37	Yanni Gourde	0	1	1	+1	3	0.20	2	0	18:39
59	Jake Guentzel	0	0	0	-1	3	0.20	0	0	17:44
21	Brayden Point	1	0	1	0	6	1.32	1	1	17:13
38	Brandon Hagel	1	1	2	+1	6	0.49	0	1	16:42
28	Zemgus Girgensons	1	0	1	0	3	0.20	4	0	15:48
28	Oliver Bjorkstrand	0	0	0	0	3	0.16	2	0	14:02
29	Pontus Holmberg	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	4	0	13:17
90	Corey Perry	1	0	1	+2	1	0.16	0	0	08:54
94	Conor Geekie	0	1	1	0	1	0.07	6	0	07:33
49	Scott Sabourin	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4	0	04:17
Defense
90	J.J. Moser	1	2	3	+2	4	0.62	2	0	26:17
43	Darren Raddysh	0	3	3	+2	8	0.16	1	1	23:13
27	Ryan McDonagh	0	0	0	0	3	0.01	1	0	20:41
77	Victor Hedman	0	0	0	+2	7	0.12	1	0	20:07
51	Charle-Edouard D'Astous	0	0	0	-1	4	0.09	3	0	18:37
81	Erik Cernak	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	3	06:47

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Jonas Johansson	42	8	34	.810	4.01	-3.99

Buffalo Sabres

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
71	Ryan McLeod	0	1	1	+2	4	0.16	1	1	21:03
72	Tage Thompson	0	4	4	-1	6	0.18	4	1	19:39
89	Alex Tuch	2	0	2	0	5	0.41	3	2	18:54
91	Josh Doan	2	0	2	-2	6	1.02	2	0	18:25
9	Josh Norris	0	0	0	-1	1	0.06	1	1	17:55
17	Jason Zucker	2	1	3	+1	9	0.92	0	1	16:42
86	Noah Ostlund	0	1	1	-1	3	0.23	1	0	16:34
22	Jack Quinn	0	0	0	0	5	0.45	4	0	15:19
6	Zach Benson	0	1	1	+1	1	0.09	2	0	14:15
19	Peyton Krebs	0	0	0	-3	1	0.03	0	0	08:46
10	Sam Carrick	1	0	1	-2	3	0.20	3	0	06:03
29	Beck Malenstyn	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	3	0	06:03
Defense
25	Owen Power	0	0	0	-4	2	0.01	0	3	27:08
26	Rasmus Dahlin	1	2	3	+2	3	0.16	0	1	26:16
23	Mattias Samuelsson	0	0	0	-3	4	0.12	2	3	24:57
24	Bowen Byram	0	3	3	0	7	0.38	1	0	20:12
73	Zach Metsa	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	2	08:55
7	Michael Kesselring	0	1	1	+1	1	0.03	0	0	06:03

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	28	7	22	.786	4.49	-2.51

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
86 Nikita Kucherov R	+3.18	+2.20	+0.31	+0.69	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	19:15
43 Darren Raddysh D	+2.99	+1.80	+0.10	+1.29	-0.23	0.00	+0.03	—	23:13
21 Brayden Point C	+2.88	+0.75	+0.86	+1.25	0.00	-0.03	+0.05	—	17:13
90 J.J. Moser D	+2.86	+1.85	+0.41	+0.61	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	26:17
10 Corey Perry R	+2.27	+0.75	+0.11	+1.44	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	8:54
38 Brandon Hagel L	+2.01	+1.45	+0.32	+0.56	-0.37	0.00	+0.05	—	16:42
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R	+1.62	0.00	+0.10	+1.39	+0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	14:02
27 Ryan McDonagh D	+1.18	0.00	+0.01	+1.31	-0.15	0.00	+0.02	—	20:41
71 Anthony Cirelli C	+1.11	+0.70	+0.11	+0.47	-0.15	+0.02	-0.04	—	18:55
14 Conor Geekie C	+1.04	+0.70	+0.05	+0.29	0.00	-0.01	+0.02	—	7:33
37 Yanni Gourde C	+0.84	+0.70	+0.13	+0.05	0.00	+0.02	-0.06	—	18:39
28 Zemgus Girgensons C	+0.74	+0.75	+0.13	-0.02	-0.15	+0.03	0.00	—	15:48
77 Victor Hedman D	+0.51	0.00	+0.08	+0.43	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	20:07
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D	+0.49	0.00	+0.06	+0.43	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	18:37
59 Jake Guentzel C	+0.23	0.00	+0.13	+0.15	0.00	-0.03	-0.02	—	17:44
46 Scott Sabourin R	+0.08	0.00	0.00	+0.10	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	4:17
81 Erik Cernak D	+0.04	0.00	0.00	+0.04	-0.15	0.00	+0.15	—	6:47
29 Pontus Holmberg R	-0.16	0.00	+0.03	-0.19	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:17
31 Jonas Johansson G	-3.84	0.00	—	—	+0.15	—	—	-3.99	58:54

Buffalo Sabres

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
17 Jason Zucker L	+3.92	+2.20	+0.60	+1.13	0.00	-0.02	+0.01	—	16:42
26 Rasmus Dahlin D	+2.96	+2.00	+0.10	+0.34	+0.47	0.00	+0.05	—	26:16
72 Tage Thompson C	+2.67	+2.65	+0.12	-0.18	+0.07	-0.03	+0.05	—	19:39
71 Ryan McLeod C	+1.80	+0.70	+0.10	+0.92	0.00	+0.06	+0.01	—	21:03
22 Jack Quinn R	+1.33	0.00	+0.29	+1.06	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	15:19
89 Alex Tuch R	+1.32	+1.50	+0.27	-0.91	+0.37	0.00	+0.10	—	18:54
6 Zach Benson L	+1.18	+0.70	+0.06	+0.42	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	14:15
8 Michael Kesselring D	+1.12	+0.55	+0.02	+0.57	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	6:03
4 Bowen Byram D	+1.07	+1.80	+0.25	-1.00	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	20:12
73 Zach Metsa D	-0.11	0.00	0.00	-0.19	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	8:55
91 Josh Doan R	-0.12	+1.50	+0.66	-2.28	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	18:25
29 Beck Malenstyn L	-0.50	0.00	0.00	-0.48	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	6:03
10 Sam Carrick C	-0.72	+0.75	+0.13	-1.67	0.00	+0.05	+0.02	—	6:03
9 Josh Norris C	-0.95	0.00	+0.04	-1.16	+0.15	-0.03	+0.05	—	17:55
86 Noah Ostlund C	-0.96	+0.55	+0.15	-1.64	0.00	-0.02	0.00	—	16:34
19 Peyton Krebs C	-1.40	0.00	+0.02	-1.38	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	8:46
23 Mattias Samuelsson D	-1.41	0.00	+0.08	-1.62	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	24:57
25 Owen Power D	-2.23	0.00	+0.01	-2.21	-0.15	0.00	+0.13	—	27:08
1 Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G	-2.51	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-2.51	59:21

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.