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Anaheim DucksANA 4–6 Final Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

Thursday, March 12, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Anaheim DucksANA 211 4 40
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 123 6 28
Playoff odds, % Change
ANA -1.1
TOR +0.0

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 12, 2026 6:17 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
7:19 TOR Matias Maccelli (14) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.03 0–1 ▶
12:19 ANA Cutter Gauthier (33) Chris Kreider (19), Jackson LaCombe (38) · wrist xG 0.41 1–1 ▶
14:26 ANA Ian Moore (4) Jansen Harkins (5) · snap xG 0.16 2–1 ▶
2nd Period
2:55 ANA Pavel Mintyukov (8) Ryan Poehling (20), Jeffrey Viel (2) · snap xG 0.12 3–1 ▶
10:47 TOR Auston Matthews (27)PP Matthew Knies (36), William Nylander (39) · wrist xG 0.08 3–2 ▶
16:26 TOR John Tavares (23)PP Matias Maccelli (17), Matthew Knies (37) · wrist xG 0.03 3–3 ▶
3rd Period
0:36 TOR William Nylander (23)PP Matthew Knies (38), Matias Maccelli (18) · wrist xG 0.15 3–4 ▶
8:35 TOR Bo Groulx (1)SH Brandon Carlo (6) · wrist xG 0.14 3–5 ▶
18:12 TOR Matthew Knies (17)EN Jake McCabe (17), John Tavares (31) · wrist xG 0.54 3–6 ▶
19:34 ANA Alex Killorn (10) Jeffrey Viel (3), Jacob Trouba (22) · wrist xG 0.09 4–6 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

ANA 76%Deserve to win24% TOR
ANATOR
5.07Expected goals3.76
4Goals (no shootout)6
3.34Expected goals, 5 on 51.25
76Shot attempts53
62Unblocked attempts44
40Shots on goal28

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
11:50 ANA xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced TOR 2.62–0.21
In xG over 10 minutes, 4:30 to 14:30 of the 1st; goals 2–1
3rd Period
17:51 ANA Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Dostal, down 5–3
With 2:09 left; TOR scored at 18:12 of the 3rd (3–6)

Shot map

ANA shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TOR shoots
Beckett Sennecke: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 0:18) Nick Robertson: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 2:01) John Tavares: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 2:19) Max Domi: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 2:41) Mason McTavish: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:56) Ryan Poehling: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 3:27) Easton Cowan: backhand, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:24) Drew Helleson: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 4:43) Pavel Mintyukov: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 5:02) Radko Gudas: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 5:27) Beckett Sennecke: backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.26 (P1 5:46) Jacob Trouba: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 6:37) Pavel Mintyukov: slap, 8 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 7:53) Jacob Trouba: slap, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:19) Leo Carlsson: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 8:33) Brandon Carlo: wrist, 173 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 8:37) Leo Carlsson: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:52) Beckett Sennecke: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 10:00) Mason McTavish: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 10:06) Beckett Sennecke: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 10:17) Cutter Gauthier: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 10:58) Cutter Gauthier: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 11:10) Cutter Gauthier: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 11:39) Chris Kreider: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 11:50) Chris Kreider: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 12:04) Leo Carlsson: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 12:11) Chris Kreider: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 12:16) Easton Cowan: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 12:39) Alex Killorn: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.22 (P1 13:12) Jeffrey Viel: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 13:21) Olen Zellweger: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 13:39) Ian Moore: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:04) Ian Moore: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 14:17) Jake McCabe: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:43) Cutter Gauthier: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 15:53) Mikael Granlund: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 17:12) Easton Cowan: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 17:33) Auston Matthews: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 17:36) Auston Matthews: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 18:57) John Tavares: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 18:58) Auston Matthews: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 19:15) John Tavares: tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 19:28) Jake McCabe: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:45) Beckett Sennecke: deflected, 12 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 1:39) Olen Zellweger: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:03) Matthew Knies: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 2:15) Ian Moore: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:30) Cutter Gauthier: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 4:34) Radko Gudas: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:37) Beckett Sennecke: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:08) Max Domi: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:38) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 6:00) Nick Robertson: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 6:32) Bo Groulx: snap, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:09) Jacob Trouba: deflected, 83 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:45) Mikael Granlund: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 8:54) Alex Killorn: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 8:58) William Nylander: backhand, 22 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:17) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 10:00) John Tavares: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 10:28) John Tavares: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.28 (P2 10:32) Pavel Mintyukov: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 11:22) Beckett Sennecke: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 11:56) Jacob Trouba: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 12:02) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 12:33) Cutter Gauthier: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:14) Matias Maccelli: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 16:23) Easton Cowan: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 19:56) Nick Robertson: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 19:59) Alex Killorn: wrist, 119 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 0:20) Calle Jarnkrok: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 0:46) Nick Robertson: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:50) William Nylander: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 1:35) Calle Jarnkrok: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 4:14) Beckett Sennecke: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 4:45) Pavel Mintyukov: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:21) Tim Washe: wrist, 88 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 6:02) Jacob Trouba: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 6:37) Brandon Carlo: snap, 71 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 7:57) Mason McTavish: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 8:08) Brandon Carlo: wrist, 161 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 8:40) Pavel Mintyukov: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 9:11) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 10:36) Brandon Carlo: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:03) Mikael Granlund: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 12:26) Leo Carlsson: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 13:44) Beckett Sennecke: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 14:10) Jake McCabe: bat, 15 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 17:18) William Nylander: wrist, 90 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 17:41) Mason McTavish: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 17:50) Beckett Sennecke: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 17:55) Mikael Granlund: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.30 (P3 17:57) William Nylander: tip-in, 140 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 18:00) Leo Carlsson: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 19:45) Jacob Trouba: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 19:49) Jacob Trouba: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 19:55) Matias Maccelli: GOAL, wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 7:19) Cutter Gauthier: GOAL, wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.41 (P1 12:19) Ian Moore: GOAL, snap, 25 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 14:26) Pavel Mintyukov: GOAL, snap, 26 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 2:55) Auston Matthews: GOAL, wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 10:47) John Tavares: GOAL, wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 16:26) William Nylander: GOAL, wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 0:36) Bo Groulx: GOAL, wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 8:35) Matthew Knies: GOAL, wrist, 113 ft, xG 0.54 (P3 18:12) Alex Killorn: GOAL, wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 19:34)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Anaheim Ducks

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
45 Beckett Sennecke 000 -1 131.02 0020:27
64 Mikael Granlund 000 -1 40.42 0220:17
91 Leo Carlsson 000 -1 70.38 0019:51
61 Cutter Gauthier 101 -1 81.01 1119:24
22 Chris Kreider 011 -1 40.46 1018:35
17 Alex Killorn 101 +1 50.37 0016:55
25 Ryan Poehling 011 +1 10.09 0014:52
83 Mason McTavish 000 0 40.13 2112:15
42 Tim Washe 000 +1 20.00 0010:55
25 Jeffrey Viel 022 +1 20.08 3008:32
10 Jansen Harkins 011 +1 10.00 2006:45
Defense
2 Jackson LaCombe 011 0 00.00 2025:05
65 Jacob Trouba 011 +1 90.32 1223:43
98 Pavel Mintyukov 101 +1 60.41 0321:48
14 Drew Helleson 000 +1 10.07 0015:12
8 Olen Zellweger 000 0 30.05 1013:50
3 Ian Moore 101 +1 40.23 0010:18
6 Radko Gudas 000 0 20.04 2010:09
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Lukas Dostal 27522 .815 3.14 -1.86

Toronto Maple Leafs

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
88 William Nylander 112 +1 60.29 2023:57
89 Matthew Knies 134 0 20.72 3122:32
91 John Tavares 112 0 60.84 1021:04
29 Bo Groulx 101 +1 20.15 3117:41
53 Easton Cowan 000 0 40.27 1015:00
19 Calle Jarnkrok 000 -1 20.21 0014:06
63 Matias Maccelli 123 0 30.16 1113:51
34 Auston Matthews 101 0 40.33 1013:18
11 Max Domi 000 -2 20.04 0012:12
14 Nick Robertson 000 0 60.33 0211:15
26 Jacob Quillan 000 -2 10.00 3010:04
61 Michael Pezzetta 000 -1 00.00 3003:43
Defense
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson 000 +1 40.30 2021:52
25 Brandon Carlo 011 +1 40.02 3120:27
22 Jake McCabe 011 0 30.10 2320:22
44 Morgan Rielly 000 0 10.00 1218:01
44 Simon Benoit 000 -2 10.00 4016:35
51 Philippe Myers 000 -2 20.00 4212:33
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Joseph Woll 40436 .900 5.07 +1.07

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Anaheim Ducks

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
61 Cutter Gauthier L +2.68 +0.75 +0.66 +1.27 0.00 -0.04 +0.05 — 19:24
20 Chris Kreider L +2.52 +0.70 +0.30 +1.83 -0.30 0.00 0.00 — 18:35
17 Alex Killorn L +2.27 +0.75 +0.24 +1.16 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 16:55
98 Pavel Mintyukov D +2.22 +0.75 +0.27 +1.04 0.00 0.00 +0.17 — 21:48
91 Leo Carlsson C +2.02 0.00 +0.24 +1.75 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 19:51
2 Jackson LaCombe D +2.00 +0.55 0.00 +1.26 +0.15 0.00 +0.04 — 25:05
45 Beckett Sennecke R +1.97 0.00 +0.66 +1.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 20:27
28 Jeffrey Viel L +1.95 +1.25 +0.05 +0.80 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 8:32
25 Ryan Poehling C +1.89 +0.70 +0.06 +1.19 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 — 14:52
65 Jacob Trouba D +1.40 +0.55 +0.21 +0.54 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 23:43
3 Ian Moore D +0.96 +0.75 +0.15 +0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:18
24 Jansen Harkins C +0.82 +0.70 0.00 +0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 6:45
14 Drew Helleson D +0.62 0.00 +0.04 +0.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:12
51 Olen Zellweger D +0.48 0.00 +0.03 +0.49 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 13:50
7 Radko Gudas D +0.35 0.00 +0.03 +0.70 -0.38 0.00 0.00 — 10:09
64 Mikael Granlund C +0.29 0.00 +0.27 -0.24 +0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 20:17
42 Tim Washe C +0.10 0.00 0.00 +0.12 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 10:55
23 Mason McTavish C -0.08 0.00 +0.09 -0.21 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 12:15
1 Lukas Dostal G -1.86 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.86 57:12

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
23 Matthew Knies L +2.40 +2.70 +0.47 -0.79 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 22:32
63 Matias Maccelli L +1.89 +2.00 +0.10 -0.29 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 13:51
34 Auston Matthews C +1.42 +0.75 +0.22 -0.12 +0.53 +0.03 +0.02 — 13:18
88 William Nylander R +1.19 +1.30 +0.19 -0.28 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 23:57
60 Joseph Woll G +1.15 0.00 — — +0.08 — — +1.07 59:27
91 John Tavares C +1.01 +1.30 +0.55 -0.80 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 21:04
29 Bo Groulx C +0.66 +0.75 +0.10 -0.19 0.00 -0.01 +0.01 — 17:41
89 Nick Robertson L +0.20 0.00 +0.21 -0.11 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 11:15
53 Easton Cowan R -0.31 0.00 +0.18 -0.32 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 15:00
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D -0.32 0.00 +0.19 -0.34 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 21:52
22 Jake McCabe D -0.33 +0.70 +0.07 -1.27 +0.08 0.00 +0.09 — 20:22
2 Simon Benoit D -0.35 0.00 0.00 -0.52 +0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 16:35
61 Michael Pezzetta L -0.43 0.00 0.00 -0.41 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 3:43
51 Philippe Myers D -0.73 0.00 0.00 -0.68 -0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 12:33
25 Brandon Carlo D -0.82 +0.70 +0.01 -1.54 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 20:27
44 Morgan Rielly D -1.17 0.00 0.00 -1.23 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 18:01
19 Calle Jarnkrok C -1.22 0.00 +0.14 -1.64 +0.30 +0.01 -0.02 — 14:06
26 Jacob Quillan C -1.51 0.00 0.00 -1.53 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 10:04
11 Max Domi C -1.89 0.00 +0.03 -1.62 -0.30 +0.03 -0.02 — 12:12

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.