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Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 2–3 Final/SO Buffalo SabresBUF

Saturday, March 14, 2026

Final/SO 1st2nd3rdOTSO T SOG
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 11000 2 18
Buffalo SabresBUF 11002 3 33
Playoff odds, % Change
BUF +0.2
TOR -0.0

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 14, 2026 6:05 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
2:01 BUF Owen Power (7) Zach Benson (22), Sam Carrick (7) · wrist xG 0.08 0–1 ▶
6:09 TOR Dakota Joshua (8) Nick Robertson (15) · snap xG 0.17 1–1 ▶
2nd Period
0:53 TOR Max Domi (10) William Nylander (40), Matthew Knies (39) · wrist xG 0.10 2–1 ▶
11:21 BUF Jack Quinn (16)PP Noah Ostlund (15), Ryan McLeod (37) · wrist xG 0.06 2–2 ▶
3rd Period
No scoring
Overtime
No scoring
Shootout
BUF Tage Thompson vs Joseph Woll Missed
TOR William Nylander vs Alex Lyon Saved
BUF Jack Quinn vs Joseph Woll Goal
TOR Easton Cowan vs Alex Lyon Missed
BUF Alex Tuch vs Joseph Woll Goal

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TOR 20%Deserve to win80% BUF
TORBUF
2.09Expected goals4.07
2Goals (no shootout)2
1.72Expected goals, 5 on 52.83
38Shot attempts81
28Unblocked attempts57
18Shots on goal33

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

Overtime
4:54 TOR Goalie Goalie · Woll +2.1 goals saved
2 goals on 4.07 xG, 33 shots on goal

Shot map

TOR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ BUF shoots
Tage Thompson: snap, 49 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 2:38) Tage Thompson: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 2:44) Tage Thompson: snap, 55 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 2:54) Rasmus Dahlin: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 3:40) Alex Tuch: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:35) William Nylander: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 5:15) Morgan Rielly: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:34) Jacob Quillan: tip-in, 89 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 7:12) Bo Groulx: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:29) Josh Norris: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.26 (P1 9:06) Rasmus Dahlin: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 9:13) Philippe Myers: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 9:39) Bo Groulx: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 10:17) Josh Norris: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 11:08) Jacob Quillan: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 12:01) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 12:58) John Tavares: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 13:19) Matias Maccelli: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 13:22) Philippe Myers: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 14:48) Bo Groulx: tip-in, 30 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 15:01) Luke Schenn: snap, 66 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 15:17) Ryan McLeod: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 15:57) Peyton Krebs: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 17:54) Alex Tuch: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 0:28) Matias Maccelli: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 0:38) Jack Quinn: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 1:10) Josh Doan: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 2:15) Zach Metsa: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:43) Beck Malenstyn: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 2:44) Zach Metsa: snap, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:53) Ryan McLeod: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 3:24) William Nylander: backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:38) Zach Benson: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 4:22) Zach Benson: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.28 (P2 4:24) Owen Power: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 5:50) Michael Pezzetta: poke, 12 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 6:40) Easton Cowan: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 8:50) Alex Tuch: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 8:59) Josh Doan: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 9:11) Alex Tuch: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 9:13) Tage Thompson: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 10:11) Josh Norris: tip-in, 21 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 10:44) Owen Power: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 12:19) Tage Thompson: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 12:21) Josh Doan: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 12:56) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 13:04) Nick Robertson: wrist, 128 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 14:34) Sam Carrick: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 14:49) Simon Benoit: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 16:37) Rasmus Dahlin: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 17:11) Bowen Byram: snap, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 18:34) Zach Benson: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 19:57) Alex Tuch: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 2:01) Tage Thompson: backhand, 22 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 2:08) Zach Benson: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 2:29) Jake McCabe: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 2:47) Rasmus Dahlin: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 3:38) Luke Schenn: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:24) Peyton Krebs: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:59) Jason Zucker: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 7:58) Bowen Byram: snap, 53 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 8:43) Alex Tuch: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 9:14) Luke Schenn: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 10:04) Beck Malenstyn: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 10:13) Matias Maccelli: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 11:38) Logan Stanley: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:11) Jason Zucker: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:31) Peyton Krebs: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 14:20) Beck Malenstyn: tip-in, 27 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 14:26) Alex Tuch: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 14:37) John Tavares: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:20) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 15:26) Bo Groulx: tip-in, 33 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 17:46) Philippe Myers: slap, 88 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 18:02) Bowen Byram: slap, 69 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 18:29) Tage Thompson: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 18:41) Josh Norris: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.24 (OT 1:02) Easton Cowan: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.16 (OT 1:09) John Tavares: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.20 (OT 2:07) Tage Thompson: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.08 (OT 4:03) Alex Tuch: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.12 (OT 4:54) Owen Power: GOAL, wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 2:01) Dakota Joshua: GOAL, snap, 25 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 6:09) Max Domi: GOAL, wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 0:53) Jack Quinn: GOAL, wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 11:21)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Toronto Maple Leafs

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
88 William Nylander 011 0 20.19 0021:18
89 Matthew Knies 011 +1 20.00 3020:09
91 John Tavares 000 -1 50.40 1019:50
63 Matias Maccelli 000 -1 30.23 4019:25
29 Bo Groulx 000 +1 50.28 5119:08
11 Max Domi 101 +1 10.10 1116:47
53 Easton Cowan 000 0 30.26 2115:07
14 Nick Robertson 011 +1 20.00 1014:35
81 Dakota Joshua 101 +1 20.17 6011:58
19 Calle Jarnkrok 000 0 00.00 1010:38
26 Jacob Quillan 000 0 20.01 1110:10
61 Michael Pezzetta 000 0 10.11 3106:29
Defense
22 Jake McCabe 000 0 10.08 1426:19
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson 000 0 30.04 2221:59
44 Morgan Rielly 000 0 10.01 0319:33
25 Brandon Carlo 000 0 00.00 0219:18
44 Simon Benoit 000 +1 10.11 3517:05
51 Philippe Myers 000 +1 40.08 1116:53
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Joseph Woll 33231 .939 4.07 +2.07

Buffalo Sabres

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
72 Tage Thompson 000 -1 110.51 1021:19
89 Alex Tuch 000 -1 80.52 1020:52
9 Josh Norris 000 0 70.69 0019:13
91 Josh Doan 000 0 60.28 0019:02
71 Ryan McLeod 011 -1 20.12 0017:56
17 Jason Zucker 000 -1 30.12 2116:24
86 Noah Ostlund 011 0 20.00 0115:46
6 Zach Benson 011 +1 50.63 1014:43
22 Jack Quinn 101 -1 30.11 0013:42
29 Beck Malenstyn 000 +1 30.14 5011:27
19 Peyton Krebs 000 -1 30.18 3111:13
10 Sam Carrick 011 +1 10.09 2010:34
Defense
26 Rasmus Dahlin 000 -1 100.32 2326:12
24 Bowen Byram 000 0 40.05 1125:35
25 Owen Power 101 +1 30.22 0023:50
8 Logan Stanley 000 -1 40.01 0115:49
73 Zach Metsa 000 0 20.02 0015:32
2 Luke Schenn 000 -1 40.05 3111:02
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Alex Lyon 18216 .889 2.09 +0.09

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
60 Joseph Woll G +2.12 0.00 — — +0.05 — — +2.07 65:00
11 Max Domi C +0.92 +0.75 +0.06 +0.05 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 16:47
81 Dakota Joshua C +0.76 +0.75 +0.11 -0.06 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 11:58
88 William Nylander R +0.56 +0.70 +0.12 -0.28 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 21:18
26 Jacob Quillan C +0.40 0.00 0.00 +0.35 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 10:10
23 Matthew Knies L +0.32 +0.55 0.00 -0.10 -0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 20:09
61 Michael Pezzetta L +0.29 0.00 +0.07 +0.34 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 6:29
2 Simon Benoit D +0.01 0.00 +0.07 -0.32 0.00 0.00 +0.25 — 17:05
53 Easton Cowan R -0.04 0.00 +0.17 -0.20 0.00 0.00 -0.01 — 15:07
89 Nick Robertson L -0.05 +0.70 0.00 -0.72 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 14:35
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D -0.09 0.00 +0.03 -0.17 -0.05 0.00 +0.10 — 21:59
51 Philippe Myers D -0.18 0.00 +0.05 -0.25 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 16:53
44 Morgan Rielly D -0.23 0.00 0.00 -0.36 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 19:33
29 Bo Groulx C -0.27 0.00 +0.18 -0.43 0.00 -0.05 +0.03 — 19:08
25 Brandon Carlo D -0.34 0.00 0.00 -0.42 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 19:18
19 Calle Jarnkrok C -0.38 0.00 0.00 -0.38 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:38
22 Jake McCabe D -0.44 0.00 +0.05 -0.68 0.00 0.00 +0.18 — 26:19
91 John Tavares C -0.49 0.00 +0.26 -0.83 0.00 +0.08 0.00 — 19:50
63 Matias Maccelli L -0.73 0.00 +0.15 -0.85 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 19:25

Buffalo Sabres

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
6 Zach Benson L +1.81 +0.70 +0.41 +0.74 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 14:43
73 Zach Metsa D +1.79 0.00 +0.01 +1.76 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 15:32
9 Josh Norris C +1.30 0.00 +0.45 +0.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:13
91 Josh Doan R +1.26 0.00 +0.18 +0.84 +0.30 0.00 -0.06 — 19:02
86 Noah Ostlund C +1.12 +0.70 0.00 +0.43 -0.05 +0.01 +0.03 — 15:46
26 Rasmus Dahlin D +1.07 0.00 +0.21 +0.88 -0.15 0.00 +0.13 — 26:12
25 Owen Power D +0.96 +0.75 +0.14 +0.08 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 23:50
10 Sam Carrick C +0.85 +0.55 +0.06 +0.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:34
89 Alex Tuch R +0.81 0.00 +0.34 +0.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 20:52
72 Tage Thompson C +0.76 0.00 +0.33 +0.32 +0.15 -0.05 0.00 — 21:19
29 Beck Malenstyn L +0.49 0.00 +0.09 +0.25 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 11:27
71 Ryan McLeod C +0.39 +0.55 +0.08 -0.26 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 17:56
22 Jack Quinn R +0.29 +0.75 +0.07 -0.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:42
4 Bowen Byram D +0.27 0.00 +0.03 +0.19 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 25:35
19 Peyton Krebs C +0.27 0.00 +0.12 +0.10 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 11:13
34 Alex Lyon G +0.09 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.09 65:00
17 Jason Zucker L -0.25 0.00 +0.08 -0.35 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 16:24
64 Logan Stanley D -0.26 0.00 +0.01 -0.34 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 15:49
5 Luke Schenn D -0.42 0.00 +0.03 -0.38 -0.10 0.00 +0.03 — 11:02

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.