hockeystats.io

Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 4–2 Final Minnesota WildMIN

Sunday, March 15, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 031 4 26
Minnesota WildMIN 002 2 38
Playoff odds, % Change
TOR +0.0
MIN +0.0

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 15, 2026 7:09 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
1:07 TOR Morgan Rielly (9) Matias Maccelli (19), John Tavares (32) · wrist xG 0.08 1–0 ▶
2:19 TOR Bo Groulx (2) Troy Stecher (10), Nick Robertson (16) · deflected xG 0.12 2–0 ▶
8:18 TOR Bo Groulx (3) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.06 3–0 ▶
3rd Period
4:51 MIN Vladimir Tarasenko (17) Mats Zuccarello (28), Ryan Hartman (14) · snap xG 0.21 3–1 ▶
5:14 MIN Vladimir Tarasenko (18) Ryan Hartman (15), Mats Zuccarello (29) · wrist xG 0.04 3–2 ▶
19:23 TOR Matthew Knies (18)EN Unassisted · wrist xG 0.43 4–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TOR 15%Deserve to win85% MIN
TORMIN
2.14Expected goals4.77
4Goals (no shootout)2
1.24Expected goals, 5 on 53.49
48Shot attempts90
35Unblocked attempts58
26Shots on goal38

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
13:49 MIN Deserve to win Deserve to win · MIN takes the lead, 68–32%
TOR had led since 1:18 of the 1st, by as much as 60%
16:10 MIN xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced TOR 1.07–0.07
In xG over 10 minutes, 6:40 to 16:40 of the 1st; neither team scored
2nd Period
8:18 MIN Goalie Goalie · Wallstedt −2.1 goals saved
3 goals on 0.93 xG, 13 shots on goal
9:35 TOR Goalie Goalie · Stolarz +2.0 goals saved
0 goals on 2.02 xG, 17 shots on goal
3rd Period
12:30 MIN xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced TOR 1.26–0.19
In xG over 10 minutes, 3:20 to 13:20 of the 3rd; goals 2–0
15:40 MIN No shift No shift · Sturm, 13:10 on the bench
No shift after 3:26 of the 3rd; 10 shifts (7:49) before that
18:18 MIN Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Wallstedt, down 3–2
With 1:42 left; TOR scored at 19:23 of the 3rd (4–2)

Shot map

TOR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ MIN shoots
Morgan Rielly: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 0:26) William Nylander: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 1:18) Quinn Hughes: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 2:38) Yakov Trenin: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 2:42) Jonas Brodin: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 4:06) Brock Faber: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 5:39) Troy Stecher: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 6:06) Brandon Carlo: wrist, 98 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 6:32) Matt Boldy: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 6:57) John Tavares: tip-in, 21 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 7:56) Nico Sturm: backhand, 28 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 8:29) Troy Stecher: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:42) Joel Eriksson Ek: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:04) Matt Boldy: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 10:21) Matt Boldy: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:30) John Tavares: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:31) Michael McCarron: deflected, 11 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 13:01) Yakov Trenin: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 13:46) Vladimir Tarasenko: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.28 (P1 13:49) Marcus Johansson: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:30) Jonas Brodin: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:33) Mats Zuccarello: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.22 (P1 15:12) Kirill Kaprizov: slap, 21 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 15:27) Jake Middleton: backhand, 28 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 15:37) Ryan Hartman: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 15:53) Calle Jarnkrok: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.22 (P1 16:41) Nick Foligno: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 16:53) Mats Zuccarello: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 19:19) Ryan Hartman: backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 19:21) Brandon Carlo: wrist, 80 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 19:37) Kirill Kaprizov: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 19:53) Matias Maccelli: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 0:45) Mats Zuccarello: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:55) Jeff Petry: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:05) William Nylander: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:06) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:17) Ryan Hartman: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 4:28) Brock Faber: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:47) Dakota Joshua: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 5:15) Mats Zuccarello: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:34) Jeff Petry: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:48) Jonas Brodin: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:30) Jake McCabe: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 7:49) Matt Boldy: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 7:59) Nick Robertson: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:22) Yakov Trenin: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 8:56) Mats Zuccarello: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 9:35) Matt Boldy: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 10:53) Vladimir Tarasenko: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 11:35) Quinn Hughes: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:36) John Tavares: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 14:28) Brock Faber: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 14:49) Ryan Hartman: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 15:44) Troy Stecher: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 16:34) Vladimir Tarasenko: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 16:54) Matthew Knies: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 17:23) Matias Maccelli: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 17:35) John Tavares: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 17:37) Marcus Johansson: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 18:11) Dakota Joshua: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 19:05) Philippe Myers: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:09) William Nylander: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 19:18) John Tavares: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 19:19) John Tavares: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:20) Joel Eriksson Ek: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.70 (P3 0:40) Yakov Trenin: deflected, 5 ft, xG 0.22 (P3 3:37) Michael McCarron: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 3:40) Kirill Kaprizov: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 5:51) Mats Zuccarello: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 7:55) Mats Zuccarello: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.29 (P3 8:17) Dakota Joshua: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 8:25) Troy Stecher: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 9:00) Matias Maccelli: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 9:02) Vladimir Tarasenko: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 9:48) Dakota Joshua: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 10:53) Nick Robertson: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 11:16) Joel Eriksson Ek: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 11:47) Kirill Kaprizov: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 12:21) Quinn Hughes: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 13:12) Ryan Hartman: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 14:18) Ryan Hartman: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 15:34) Mats Zuccarello: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 15:55) Calle Jarnkrok: backhand, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:16) Ryan Hartman: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:25) Matt Boldy: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 16:35) Joel Eriksson Ek: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 16:37) Joel Eriksson Ek: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 18:14) Morgan Rielly: GOAL, wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 1:07) Bo Groulx: GOAL, deflected, 34 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 2:19) Bo Groulx: GOAL, wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 8:18) Vladimir Tarasenko: GOAL, snap, 9 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 4:51) Vladimir Tarasenko: GOAL, wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 5:14) Matthew Knies: GOAL, wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.43 (P3 19:23)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Toronto Maple Leafs

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
89 Matthew Knies 101 +1 20.56 1121:29
91 John Tavares 011 0 70.29 0119:49
88 William Nylander 000 +1 40.13 0117:42
29 Bo Groulx 202 +2 40.18 1017:03
53 Easton Cowan 000 0 10.00 0216:39
11 Max Domi 000 +1 30.00 0015:26
63 Matias Maccelli 011 +1 30.22 0014:19
14 Nick Robertson 011 0 20.04 0013:41
81 Dakota Joshua 000 0 40.17 3011:09
18 Steven Lorentz 000 0 00.00 2010:54
19 Calle Jarnkrok 000 0 30.23 0010:22
26 Jacob Quillan 000 0 00.00 1208:21
Defense
22 Jake McCabe 000 +2 10.02 2926:49
25 Brandon Carlo 000 +1 20.00 0325:07
44 Morgan Rielly 101 +1 40.22 0017:38
51 Philippe Myers 000 0 30.01 2217:28
28 Troy Stecher 011 0 40.05 1417:13
44 Simon Benoit 000 0 10.00 0214:46
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Anthony Stolarz 38236 .947 4.07 +2.07

Minnesota Wild

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
97 Kirill Kaprizov 000 -1 80.38 1122:41
36 Mats Zuccarello 022 +1 90.91 0021:35
12 Matt Boldy 000 -2 60.32 0119:28
14 Joel Eriksson Ek 000 -2 91.03 1018:47
91 Vladimir Tarasenko 202 0 80.62 3016:55
38 Ryan Hartman 022 +2 80.38 0016:52
13 Yakov Trenin 000 -1 50.44 3013:04
22 Danila Yurov 000 -1 00.00 0012:48
90 Marcus Johansson 000 -1 30.02 1112:33
71 Nick Foligno 000 -1 10.02 5011:10
47 Michael McCarron 000 -1 20.19 3109:20
78 Nico Sturm 000 -1 10.03 2007:49
Defense
43 Quinn Hughes 000 -2 130.16 0031:17
7 Brock Faber 000 -1 70.15 1323:30
25 Jonas Brodin 000 -1 30.03 0119:18
46 Jared Spurgeon 000 -1 10.00 0418:02
55 Jake Middleton 000 +1 30.06 1112:11
2 Jeff Petry 000 +1 30.02 1010:14
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jesper Wallstedt 25322 .880 1.71 -1.29

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
41 Anthony Stolarz G +2.07 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +2.07 58:05
28 Troy Stecher D +1.03 +0.70 +0.03 +0.16 0.00 0.00 +0.14 — 17:13
63 Matias Maccelli L +0.76 +0.70 +0.14 -0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:19
29 Bo Groulx C +0.60 +1.50 +0.12 -1.03 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 17:03
23 Matthew Knies L +0.56 +0.75 +0.36 -0.73 +0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 20:47
44 Morgan Rielly D +0.44 +0.75 +0.14 -0.43 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:38
2 Simon Benoit D +0.31 0.00 0.00 +0.27 0.00 0.00 +0.04 — 14:46
88 William Nylander R +0.10 0.00 +0.09 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 +0.03 — 17:42
91 John Tavares C -0.09 +0.55 +0.19 -0.96 0.00 +0.08 +0.05 — 19:49
26 Jacob Quillan C -0.24 0.00 0.00 -0.33 0.00 -0.03 +0.12 — 8:21
11 Max Domi C -0.24 0.00 0.00 -0.21 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 15:26
53 Easton Cowan R -0.45 0.00 0.00 -0.55 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 16:39
18 Steven Lorentz C -0.49 0.00 0.00 -0.50 0.00 -0.01 +0.02 — 10:54
19 Calle Jarnkrok C -0.56 0.00 +0.15 -0.55 -0.15 +0.01 -0.02 — 10:22
89 Nick Robertson L -0.61 +0.55 +0.03 -1.02 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 13:41
81 Dakota Joshua C -0.92 0.00 +0.11 -1.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 11:51
51 Philippe Myers D -0.94 0.00 +0.01 -1.03 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 17:28
22 Jake McCabe D -1.43 0.00 +0.01 -1.85 0.00 0.00 +0.41 — 26:49
25 Brandon Carlo D -1.63 0.00 0.00 -1.76 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 25:07

Minnesota Wild

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
36 Mats Zuccarello R +4.00 +1.25 +0.59 +2.21 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 — 21:35
91 Vladimir Tarasenko R +3.66 +1.50 +0.40 +1.76 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:55
38 Ryan Hartman R +3.57 +1.25 +0.25 +2.11 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 — 16:52
97 Kirill Kaprizov L +1.66 0.00 +0.24 +1.37 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 22:41
5 Jake Middleton D +1.20 0.00 +0.04 +1.09 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 12:11
2 Jeff Petry D +1.13 0.00 +0.01 +1.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:14
25 Jonas Brodin D +1.10 0.00 +0.02 +1.03 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 19:18
43 Quinn Hughes D +0.96 0.00 +0.10 +0.67 +0.15 0.00 +0.04 — 31:17
13 Yakov Trenin C +0.79 0.00 +0.29 +0.69 -0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 12:24
46 Jared Spurgeon D +0.78 0.00 0.00 +0.60 0.00 0.00 +0.18 — 18:02
14 Joel Eriksson Ek C +0.47 0.00 +0.67 -0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 18:47
7 Brock Faber D +0.34 0.00 +0.10 +0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 23:30
22 Danila Yurov R +0.33 0.00 0.00 +0.39 0.00 -0.04 -0.02 — 12:48
47 Michael McCarron C +0.20 0.00 +0.12 -0.02 0.00 +0.04 +0.05 — 9:20
12 Matt Boldy L -0.01 0.00 +0.21 -0.20 0.00 0.00 -0.01 — 19:28
90 Marcus Johansson L -0.13 0.00 +0.02 -0.16 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 13:13
71 Nick Foligno L -0.30 0.00 +0.02 -0.46 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 11:10
78 Nico Sturm C -0.43 0.00 +0.02 -0.43 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 7:49
30 Jesper Wallstedt G -1.29 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.29 58:26

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.