Nashville PredatorsNSH 4–3 Final/SO Winnipeg JetsWPG

Tuesday, March 17, 2026

Final/SO	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	SO	T	SOG
Nashville PredatorsNSH	1	1	1	0	1	4	23
Winnipeg JetsWPG	1	1	1	0	0	3	39

Playoff odds, %	Change
NSH	+5.1
WPG	-3.8

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 17, 2026 7:11 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
13:02	NSH	Erik Haula (11)PP Roman Josi (34), Luke Evangelista (39) · tip-in xG 0.13	1–0 ▶
19:20	WPG	Josh Morrissey (12) Gabriel Vilardi (30), Kyle Connor (45) · wrist xG 0.14	1–1 ▶
2nd Period
5:09	WPG	Gabriel Vilardi (26)PP Cole Perfetti (17), Kyle Connor (46) · wrist xG 0.34	1–2 ▶
10:48	NSH	Filip Forsberg (29) Jonathan Marchessault (11), Ryan Ufko (3) · slap xG 0.06	2–2 ▶
3rd Period
14:01	NSH	Matthew Wood (15) Jonathan Marchessault (12), Filip Forsberg (26) · snap xG 0.11	3–2 ▶
18:59	WPG	Jonathan Toews (8) Mark Scheifele (52), Kyle Connor (47) · snap xG 0.31	3–3 ▶
Overtime
No scoring
Shootout
	WPG	Gabriel Vilardi vs Juuse Saros	Saved
	NSH	Ryan O'Reilly vs Connor Hellebuyck	Goal
	WPG	Mark Scheifele vs Juuse Saros	Missed
	NSH	Filip Forsberg vs Connor Hellebuyck	Missed
	WPG	Kyle Connor vs Juuse Saros	Missed

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

NSH 22%Deserve to win78% WPG

NSH		WPG
2.40	Expected goals	4.26
3	Goals (no shootout)	3
1.49	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.22
51	Shot attempts	76
37	Unblocked attempts	57
23	Shots on goal	39

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
5:09	WPG	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · WPG takes the lead, 64–36% NSH had led since 3:46 of the 1st, by as much as 74%
5:10	WPG	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced NSH 1.50–0.25 In xG over 10 minutes, 16:00 of the 1st to 6:00 of the 2nd; goals 2–0
3rd Period
8:50	WPG	No shift	No shift · Koepke, 10:18 on the bench No shift from 14:08 of the 2nd to 9:04 of the 3rd; 8 shifts (5:27) before that
18:22	WPG	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Hellebuyck, down 3–2 With 1:38 left; WPG scored at 18:59 of the 3rd (3–3)

Shot map

NSH shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ WPG shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Nashville Predators

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
90	Ryan O'Reilly	0	0	0	-2	2	0.07	0	2	21:59
91	Steven Stamkos	0	0	0	-2	8	0.43	2	1	18:15
81	Jonathan Marchessault	0	2	2	+2	4	0.19	1	0	18:12
17	Tyson Jost	0	0	0	-1	2	0.00	0	0	17:42
9	Filip Forsberg	1	1	2	+2	8	0.65	1	2	17:34
56	Erik Haula	1	0	1	0	4	0.24	1	0	16:41
71	Matthew Wood	1	0	1	+2	4	0.26	2	0	16:28
77	Luke Evangelista	0	1	1	-1	3	0.12	1	0	15:09
68	Zachary L'Heureux	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	2	13:07
89	Ozzy Wiesblatt	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	1	0	10:05
9	Fedor Svechkov	0	0	0	0	2	0.15	2	1	09:58
49	Reid Schaefer	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	1	09:38
Defense
59	Roman Josi	0	1	1	-2	2	0.13	1	1	27:36
76	Brady Skjei	0	0	0	-1	2	0.07	3	2	25:14
41	Nicolas Hague	0	0	0	+1	4	0.02	0	0	24:42
48	Nick Perbix	0	0	0	0	2	0.04	0	2	20:18
72	Justin Barron	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	1	2	14:33
12	Ryan Ufko	0	1	1	+1	2	0.03	0	1	11:39

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Juuse Saros	39	3	36	.923	4.26	+1.26

Winnipeg Jets

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
81	Kyle Connor	0	3	3	+2	13	0.57	1	0	25:17
55	Mark Scheifele	0	1	1	+2	4	0.32	0	0	24:41
13	Gabriel Vilardi	1	1	2	+2	7	0.77	1	1	21:56
91	Cole Perfetti	0	1	1	+1	11	0.75	0	1	21:05
17	Adam Lowry	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	4	1	17:10
9	Alex Iafallo	0	0	0	0	2	0.09	0	1	15:37
36	Morgan Barron	0	0	0	-2	2	0.06	1	0	14:00
19	Jonathan Toews	1	0	1	+1	3	0.38	0	0	13:58
14	Gustav Nyquist	0	0	0	0	4	0.40	0	0	13:33
27	Isak Rosen	0	0	0	0	4	0.13	0	0	13:18
93	Brad Lambert	0	0	0	-2	4	0.21	0	0	09:15
45	Cole Koepke	0	0	0	-2	4	0.20	5	0	07:03
Defense
44	Josh Morrissey	1	0	1	+1	5	0.21	1	3	29:05
54	Dylan Samberg	0	0	0	0	2	0.03	1	3	25:22
2	Dylan DeMelo	0	0	0	0	2	0.01	0	0	22:25
57	Elias Salomonsson	0	0	0	0	7	0.11	1	0	21:48
24	Haydn Fleury	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	3	10:06
78	Jacob Bryson	0	0	0	-1	1	0.01	0	0	09:24

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Connor Hellebuyck	23	3	20	.870	2.40	-0.60

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Nashville Predators

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
81 Jonathan Marchessault R	+1.72	+1.40	+0.13	+0.30	-0.15	0.00	+0.04	—	18:12
9 Filip Forsberg L	+1.59	+1.30	+0.43	+0.06	-0.30	0.00	+0.10	—	17:34
74 Juuse Saros G	+1.26	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.26	65:00
71 Matthew Wood R	+1.12	+0.75	+0.17	+0.26	0.00	-0.04	-0.02	—	16:28
56 Erik Haula L	+0.99	+0.75	+0.15	+0.05	0.00	+0.03	0.00	—	16:41
48 Nick Perbix D	+0.42	0.00	+0.03	+0.29	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	20:18
85 Ryan Ufko D	+0.40	+0.55	+0.02	-0.06	-0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	11:39
59 Roman Josi D	+0.30	+0.70	+0.09	-0.53	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	27:36
77 Luke Evangelista R	+0.18	+0.55	+0.08	-0.45	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	15:09
68 Zachary L'Heureux L	+0.16	0.00	0.00	+0.06	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	13:07
91 Steven Stamkos C	+0.03	0.00	+0.28	-0.30	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	18:15
49 Reid Schaefer L	-0.09	0.00	0.00	-0.26	+0.15	-0.01	+0.03	—	9:38
40 Fedor Svechkov C	-0.17	0.00	+0.09	-0.27	0.00	-0.03	+0.03	—	9:58
76 Brady Skjei D	-0.19	0.00	+0.04	-0.34	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	25:14
89 Ozzy Wiesblatt C	-0.20	0.00	0.00	-0.20	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	10:05
20 Justin Barron D	-0.21	0.00	0.00	-0.31	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	14:33
17 Tyson Jost C	-0.37	0.00	0.00	-0.33	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	17:42
41 Nicolas Hague D	-0.46	0.00	+0.01	-0.48	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	24:42
90 Ryan O'Reilly C	-0.54	0.00	+0.05	-0.70	0.00	-0.01	+0.12	—	21:59

Winnipeg Jets

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
13 Gabriel Vilardi C	+2.97	+1.45	+0.50	+0.66	+0.30	-0.01	+0.07	—	21:56
81 Kyle Connor L	+2.55	+1.65	+0.37	+0.55	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	25:17
55 Mark Scheifele C	+1.62	+0.70	+0.21	+0.61	+0.15	+0.01	-0.06	—	24:41
91 Cole Perfetti C	+1.31	+0.70	+0.49	+0.07	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	21:05
19 Jonathan Toews C	+1.11	+0.75	+0.25	+0.08	0.00	+0.03	0.00	—	13:58
44 Josh Morrissey D	+1.03	+0.75	+0.14	+0.01	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	29:05
57 Elias Salomonsson D	+0.67	0.00	+0.07	+0.60	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	21:48
14 Gustav Nyquist R	+0.61	0.00	+0.26	+0.38	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	13:33
54 Dylan Samberg D	+0.58	0.00	+0.02	+0.41	0.00	0.00	+0.15	—	25:22
78 Jacob Bryson D	+0.47	0.00	+0.01	+0.31	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	9:24
27 Isak Rosen R	+0.47	0.00	+0.09	+0.38	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:18
17 Adam Lowry C	+0.13	0.00	0.00	+0.07	0.00	+0.03	+0.03	—	17:10
9 Alex Iafallo L	+0.09	0.00	+0.06	-0.03	0.00	+0.01	+0.05	—	15:37
2 Dylan DeMelo D	+0.04	0.00	+0.01	+0.19	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	22:25
93 Brad Lambert C	+0.03	0.00	+0.14	-0.08	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	9:15
36 Morgan Barron C	-0.08	0.00	+0.04	-0.11	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	14:00
45 Cole Koepke L	-0.22	0.00	+0.13	-0.35	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	7:03
24 Haydn Fleury D	-0.36	0.00	0.00	-0.49	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	10:06
37 Connor Hellebuyck G	-0.60	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.60	63:09

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.