San Jose SharksSJS 3–5 Final Edmonton OilersEDM

Tuesday, March 17, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
San Jose SharksSJS	1	2	0	3	30
Edmonton OilersEDM	3	0	2	5	37

Playoff odds, %	Change
SJS	-8.5
EDM	+7.3

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 17, 2026 8:13 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
7:24	SJS	Dmitry Orlov (2) Alexander Wennberg (31), Kiefer Sherwood (8) · wrist xG 0.17	1–0 ▶
10:00	EDM	Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (18)PP Connor McDavid (78), Evan Bouchard (59) · snap xG 0.15	1–1 ▶
11:15	EDM	Connor Murphy (5) Jason Dickinson (8), Jack Roslovic (12) · wrist xG 0.02	1–2 ▶
14:18	EDM	Vasily Podkolzin (16) Adam Henrique (9) · snap xG 0.05	1–3 ▶
2nd Period
8:17	SJS	Pavol Regenda (9) Mario Ferraro (13), Adam Gaudette (8) · tip-in xG 0.04	2–3 ▶
14:36	SJS	Kiefer Sherwood (21) Dmitry Orlov (26) · wrist xG 0.17	3–3 ▶
3rd Period
4:49	EDM	Max Jones (2) Adam Henrique (10), Trent Frederic (2) · wrist xG 0.37	3–4 ▶
8:12	EDM	Zach Hyman (29) Matt Savoie (17), Mattias Ekholm (31) · backhand xG 0.20	3–5 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

SJS 47%Deserve to win53% EDM

SJS		EDM
3.28	Expected goals	3.45
3	Goals (no shootout)	5
3.07	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.49
58	Shot attempts	59
49	Unblocked attempts	43
30	Shots on goal	37

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
14:18	SJS	Goalie	Goalie · Nedeljkovic −2.4 goals saved 3 goals on 0.62 xG, 8 shots on goal
2nd Period
15:50	SJS	No shift	No shift · Ostapchuk, 10:48 on the bench No shift from 5:44 to 16:32 of the 2nd; 7 shifts (4:47) before that
18:43	SJS	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · SJS takes the lead, 63–37% EDM had led since 2:51 of the 1st, by as much as 64%
3rd Period
8:50	EDM	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced SJS 1.32–0.26 In xG over 10 minutes, 19:10 of the 2nd to 9:10 of the 3rd; goals 2–0

Shot map

SJS shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ EDM shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

San Jose Sharks

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
71	Macklin Celebrini	0	0	0	-1	5	0.14	1	0	22:51
21	Alexander Wennberg	0	1	1	0	2	0.11	0	0	19:19
51	Collin Graf	0	0	0	0	3	0.17	2	0	17:09
44	Kiefer Sherwood	1	1	2	+3	5	0.26	2	0	16:29
27	William Eklund	0	0	0	-3	2	0.19	0	0	15:32
77	Michael Misa	0	0	0	-3	5	0.14	0	1	15:32
84	Pavol Regenda	1	0	1	+3	6	0.56	6	1	14:26
73	Tyler Toffoli	0	0	0	-3	4	0.28	0	1	13:34
2	Will Smith	0	0	0	-1	1	0.27	0	0	13:27
81	Adam Gaudette	0	1	1	+2	4	0.52	0	1	11:01
23	Barclay Goodrow	0	0	0	0	1	0.07	3	0	09:51
63	Zack Ostapchuk	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	2	08:56
Defense
38	Mario Ferraro	0	1	1	0	3	0.03	0	2	22:56
6	Sam Dickinson	0	0	0	-1	5	0.23	2	0	21:00
9	Dmitry Orlov	1	1	2	0	3	0.18	1	1	20:09
73	Vincent Desharnais	0	0	0	-1	2	0.02	1	2	18:49
4	Nick Leddy	0	0	0	0	3	0.05	0	4	17:05
3	John Klingberg	0	0	0	0	4	0.07	1	0	16:50

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Alex Nedeljkovic	37	5	32	.865	3.45	-1.55

Edmonton Oilers

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
97	Connor McDavid	0	1	1	0	6	0.34	0	0	24:52
18	Zach Hyman	1	0	1	+1	4	0.53	0	1	22:31
93	Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	1	0	1	-1	6	0.44	0	1	20:38
22	Matt Savoie	0	1	1	+1	1	0.16	1	0	17:52
16	Jason Dickinson	0	1	1	0	4	0.23	2	0	16:31
42	Kasperi Kapanen	0	0	0	0	2	0.07	1	0	15:39
92	Vasily Podkolzin	1	0	1	+1	4	0.27	1	0	14:44
96	Jack Roslovic	0	1	1	-1	4	0.35	1	0	14:31
81	Josh Samanski	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	10:53
19	Adam Henrique	0	2	2	+1	3	0.10	0	0	10:12
10	Trent Frederic	0	1	1	+1	1	0.04	0	2	07:01
46	Max Jones	1	0	1	0	3	0.40	4	0	06:56
Defense
2	Evan Bouchard	0	1	1	+2	6	0.17	0	1	24:39
14	Mattias Ekholm	0	1	1	+2	3	0.10	0	1	19:39
25	Darnell Nurse	0	0	0	0	4	0.02	4	0	19:03
5	Connor Murphy	1	0	1	0	3	0.09	2	0	18:21
96	Jake Walman	0	0	0	-1	5	0.14	0	0	17:34
24	Spencer Stastney	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	1	16:24

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Connor Ingram	30	3	27	.900	3.28	+0.28

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

San Jose Sharks

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
44 Kiefer Sherwood L	+3.34	+1.30	+0.17	+2.03	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	16:29
84 Pavol Regenda L	+2.81	+0.75	+0.36	+1.68	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	14:26
81 Adam Gaudette R	+2.28	+0.55	+0.34	+1.36	0.00	-0.02	+0.05	—	11:01
9 Dmitry Orlov D	+1.23	+1.45	+0.12	-0.35	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	20:09
38 Mario Ferraro D	+1.13	+0.70	+0.02	+0.33	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	22:56
4 Nick Leddy D	+1.10	0.00	+0.03	+0.86	0.00	0.00	+0.20	—	17:05
21 Alexander Wennberg C	+0.99	+0.70	+0.07	+0.21	0.00	-0.01	+0.02	—	19:19
6 Sam Dickinson D	+0.97	0.00	+0.15	+0.77	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	21:00
63 Zack Ostapchuk C	+0.13	0.00	0.00	+0.04	0.00	-0.01	+0.10	—	8:56
51 Collin Graf R	+0.07	0.00	+0.11	-0.05	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	17:09
5 Vincent Desharnais D	+0.07	0.00	+0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	+0.06	—	18:49
23 Barclay Goodrow C	-0.20	0.00	+0.05	-0.26	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	9:51
2 Will Smith C	-0.36	0.00	+0.17	-0.54	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	13:27
73 Tyler Toffoli C	-0.41	0.00	+0.18	-0.64	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	13:34
72 William Eklund L	-0.55	0.00	+0.12	-0.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	15:32
71 Macklin Celebrini C	-0.66	0.00	+0.09	-0.55	-0.15	+0.01	-0.06	—	22:51
3 John Klingberg D	-0.71	0.00	+0.05	-0.61	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	16:50
77 Michael Misa C	-1.03	0.00	+0.09	-1.12	0.00	-0.03	+0.03	—	15:32
33 Alex Nedeljkovic G	-1.55	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-1.55	58:25

Edmonton Oilers

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
2 Evan Bouchard D	+1.90	+0.55	+0.11	+1.08	+0.15	0.00	+0.01	—	24:39
97 Connor McDavid C	+1.50	+0.70	+0.22	+0.30	+0.30	+0.02	-0.04	—	24:52
19 Adam Henrique C	+1.44	+1.40	+0.06	-0.05	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	10:12
14 Mattias Ekholm D	+1.25	+0.55	+0.07	+0.66	0.00	0.00	-0.03	—	19:39
46 Max Jones L	+1.23	+0.75	+0.26	+0.22	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	6:56
10 Trent Frederic C	+1.21	+0.55	+0.02	+0.56	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	7:01
22 Matt Savoie C	+1.12	+0.70	+0.11	+0.33	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	17:52
18 Zach Hyman L	+0.98	+0.75	+0.35	-0.01	-0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	22:31
92 Vasily Podkolzin R	+0.90	+0.75	+0.18	-0.05	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	14:44
39 Connor Ingram G	+0.28	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.28	60:00
93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C	+0.17	+0.75	+0.29	-0.91	0.00	+0.03	+0.01	—	20:38
5 Connor Murphy D	+0.10	+0.75	+0.06	-0.70	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	18:21
81 Josh Samanski C	+0.07	0.00	0.00	+0.10	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	10:53
16 Jason Dickinson C	+0.06	+0.70	+0.15	-0.78	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	16:31
28 Jack Roslovic C	-0.05	+0.55	+0.23	-1.01	+0.15	+0.03	0.00	—	14:31
42 Kasperi Kapanen R	-0.12	0.00	+0.04	-0.18	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	15:39
96 Jake Walman D	-0.33	0.00	+0.09	-0.42	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	17:34
24 Spencer Stastney D	-0.53	0.00	0.00	-0.58	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	16:24
25 Darnell Nurse D	-1.02	0.00	+0.01	-1.03	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	19:03

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.