Wednesday, March 18, 2026
Playoff odds, %
Change
NJD
+0.2
NYR
+0.0
How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 18, 2026 6:39 PM EDT.
Highlights
Shot quality
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken,
the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
NJD 84%Deserve to win 16% NYR
NJD NYR
4.29 Expected goals 1.97
6 Goals (no shootout) 3
2.96 Expected goals, 5 on 5 1.77
65 Shot attempts 43
57 Unblocked attempts 30
39 Shots on goal 18
Game notes
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is
counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the
shots' expected goals (xG).
2nd Period
0:30
NYR
No shift
No shift · Vaakanainen, 40:05 on the bench
No shift after 10:07 of the 1st; 5 shifts (3:05) before that
3rd Period
3:50
NYR
No shift
No shift · Laba, 23:54 on the bench
No shift after 10:20 of the 2nd; 14 shifts (8:40) before that
Shot map
NJD shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal → NYR shoots
Alexis Lafrenière: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:17)
Lenni Hameenaho: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 0:44)
Timo Meier: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 4:42)
Timo Meier: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 4:44)
Brenden Dillon: snap, 66 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 5:15)
Maxim Tsyplakov: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 6:03)
Maxim Tsyplakov: wrist, 1 ft, xG 0.32 (P1 6:04)
Dougie Hamilton: deflected, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:10)
Jonas Siegenthaler: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:15)
Maxim Tsyplakov: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 6:21)
Vladislav Gavrikov: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:36)
Jack Hughes: deflected, 29 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 9:16)
Luke Hughes: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:23)
Luke Hughes: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:39)
Timo Meier: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 11:04)
Dawson Mercer: deflected, 140 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 11:18)
Mika Zibanejad: deflected, 29 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 11:50)
Jack Hughes: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 12:07)
Matthew Robertson: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:08)
Cody Glass: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 14:11)
Alexis Lafrenière: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 15:13)
Connor Brown: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 16:12)
Nico Hischier: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 16:51)
Johnathan Kovacevic: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 16:56)
Simon Nemec: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 17:23)
Luke Hughes: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 19:34)
Dawson Mercer: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 1:06)
Noah Laba: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 1:52)
Matthew Robertson: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 2:08)
Adam Edstrom: deflected, 13 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 2:24)
Dawson Mercer: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:00)
Dawson Mercer: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 5:15)
Jesper Bratt: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 5:44)
Jack Hughes: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 6:10)
Luke Hughes: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 7:08)
Dawson Mercer: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 7:10)
Arseny Gritsyuk: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 7:10)
Timo Meier: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 7:16)
Nick Bjugstad: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 8:12)
Matthew Robertson: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 8:31)
Alexis Lafrenière: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 10:10)
Vladislav Gavrikov: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 10:29)
Adam Fox: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:33)
Alexis Lafrenière: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 12:31)
Nico Hischier: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 12:50)
Braden Schneider: snap, 56 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 14:44)
Vladislav Gavrikov: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:46)
Jack Hughes: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 15:20)
Timo Meier: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 16:07)
Nico Hischier: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 16:17)
Timo Meier: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 16:18)
Johnathan Kovacevic: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 16:33)
Cody Glass: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 18:29)
Jonas Siegenthaler: wrist, 71 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 0:12)
Vincent Trocheck: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:14)
Mika Zibanejad: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 2:46)
Will Borgen: slap, 72 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:56)
Jesper Bratt: backhand, 19 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:40)
Brenden Dillon: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 4:15)
Jack Hughes: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 5:21)
Paul Cotter: backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 6:26)
Alexis Lafrenière: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 6:40)
Adam Fox: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 6:47)
Mika Zibanejad: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 7:40)
Luke Hughes: snap, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 7:54)
Johnathan Kovacevic: slap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:02)
Timo Meier: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 10:04)
Timo Meier: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 10:09)
Adam Fox: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 10:54)
Alexis Lafrenière: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 10:59)
Alexis Lafrenière: deflected, 9 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 11:01)
Gabe Perreault: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 11:03)
Jack Hughes: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 12:49)
Lenni Hameenaho: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 13:21)
Vladislav Gavrikov: snap, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 15:07)
Timo Meier: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 15:34)
Timo Meier: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 15:40)
Taylor Raddysh: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 18:07)
Vladislav Gavrikov: GOAL, snap, 48 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 15:20)
Nico Hischier: GOAL, wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.43 (P1 16:14)
Arseny Gritsyuk: GOAL, snap, 29 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 19:16)
Mika Zibanejad: GOAL, snap, 32 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 0:19)
Connor Brown: GOAL, wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 11:36)
Timo Meier: GOAL, wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.45 (P3 6:29)
Conor Sheary: GOAL, snap, 14 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 9:41)
Jack Hughes: GOAL, wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 13:05)
Jesper Bratt: GOAL, snap, 30 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 16:22)
About these numbers
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot
from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the
share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how
often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count
as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map
leaves them out.
All columns
Box score
New Jersey Devils
New York Rangers
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
Player ratings
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
New Jersey Devils
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
86 Jack Hughes C
+3.50
+2.00
+0.43
+0.79
+0.30
-0.02
0.00
—
17:48
16 Connor Brown R
+2.67
+2.00
+0.16
+0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
16:03
28 Timo Meier R
+2.19
+0.75
+0.66
+0.71
0.00
0.00
+0.06
—
18:57
13 Nico Hischier C
+1.86
+1.30
+0.40
-0.03
+0.15
+0.01
+0.03
—
18:52
63 Jesper Bratt L
+1.56
+1.30
+0.10
+0.20
0.00
0.00
-0.04
—
15:14
47 Paul Cotter L
+1.55
+0.70
+0.03
+0.79
0.00
+0.05
-0.02
—
8:57
81 Arseny Gritsyuk R
+1.44
+0.75
+0.06
+0.61
0.00
0.00
+0.02
—
17:08
17 Simon Nemec D
+1.38
+0.70
+0.07
+0.72
-0.15
0.00
+0.05
—
18:53
8 Johnathan Kovacevic D
+1.31
0.00
+0.05
+1.37
-0.15
0.00
+0.05
—
20:53
43 Luke Hughes D
+1.21
0.00
+0.06
+1.15
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
23:52
5 Brenden Dillon D
+1.00
+0.70
+0.04
+0.15
0.00
0.00
+0.11
—
18:43
72 Nick Bjugstad C
+0.82
0.00
+0.02
+0.72
0.00
+0.01
+0.07
—
10:06
42 Maxim Tsyplakov R
+0.33
0.00
+0.26
+0.09
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
9:43
91 Dawson Mercer C
+0.27
0.00
+0.28
-0.14
+0.15
-0.02
0.00
—
19:20
12 Cody Glass C
+0.19
0.00
+0.13
+0.08
0.00
-0.02
0.00
—
14:25
29 Lenni Hameenaho R
+0.12
0.00
+0.03
+0.09
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
11:58
7 Dougie Hamilton D
-0.09
0.00
+0.01
-0.09
0.00
0.00
-0.01
—
18:27
71 Jonas Siegenthaler D
-0.39
0.00
+0.01
-0.42
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
17:13
25 Jacob Markstrom G
-1.03
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
-1.03
59:28
New York Rangers
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
13 Alexis Lafrenière L
+1.96
+0.70
+0.54
+0.74
0.00
+0.01
-0.04
—
19:33
23 Adam Fox D
+1.38
0.00
+0.06
+1.32
0.00
0.00
+0.01
—
26:44
43 Conor Sheary L
+1.33
+0.75
+0.13
+0.40
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
14:10
94 Gabe Perreault R
+1.18
+0.70
+0.02
+0.59
-0.15
0.00
+0.02
—
19:00
93 Mika Zibanejad C
+0.48
+0.75
+0.17
-0.31
-0.15
-0.03
+0.05
—
21:23
29 Matthew Robertson D
+0.44
+0.70
+0.13
-0.43
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
21:11
44 Vladislav Gavrikov D
+0.38
+0.75
+0.08
-0.39
0.00
0.00
-0.06
—
26:31
42 Noah Laba C
+0.11
0.00
+0.03
0.00
+0.15
-0.02
-0.04
—
8:40
14 Taylor Raddysh R
-0.43
0.00
+0.02
-0.49
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
9:13
18 Urho Vaakanainen D
-0.46
0.00
0.00
-0.46
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
3:05
50 Will Cuylle L
-0.49
0.00
0.00
-0.44
0.00
-0.01
-0.04
—
16:13
8 J.T. Miller C
-0.72
+0.55
0.00
-1.13
-0.15
+0.03
-0.02
—
17:35
84 Adam Edstrom C
-0.76
0.00
+0.06
-0.75
0.00
-0.03
-0.04
—
8:33
24 Tye Kartye L
-0.94
0.00
0.00
-0.96
0.00
0.00
+0.02
—
17:09
4 Braden Schneider D
-0.95
0.00
+0.02
-1.01
0.00
0.00
+0.04
—
19:26
16 Vincent Trocheck C
-0.99
0.00
+0.01
-1.00
0.00
+0.04
-0.04
—
18:34
49 Jaroslav Chmelar R
-1.04
0.00
0.00
-1.04
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
8:55
32 Jonathan Quick G
-1.71
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
-1.71
60:00
17 Will Borgen D
-1.88
0.00
+0.01
-1.94
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
19:19
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a
player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays,
all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.