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Dallas StarsDAL 2–1 Final/SO Colorado AvalancheCOL

Wednesday, March 18, 2026

Final/SO 1st2nd3rdOTSO T SOG
Dallas StarsDAL 01001 2 18
Colorado AvalancheCOL 10000 1 34
Playoff odds, % Change
COL +0.0
DAL +0.0

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 18, 2026 9:45 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
18:33 COL Cale Makar (20)PP Nazem Kadri (31), Nathan MacKinnon (66) · snap xG 0.16 0–1 ▶
2nd Period
6:18 DAL Jason Robertson (37) Nathan Bastian (1), Thomas Harley (24) · wrist xG 0.12 1–1 ▶
3rd Period
No scoring
Overtime
No scoring
Shootout
DAL Jason Robertson vs Scott Wedgewood Saved
COL Valeri Nichushkin vs Jake Oettinger Saved
DAL Matt Duchene vs Scott Wedgewood Saved
COL Martin Necas vs Jake Oettinger Missed
DAL Wyatt Johnston vs Scott Wedgewood Goal
COL Nathan MacKinnon vs Jake Oettinger Missed

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

DAL 51%Deserve to win49% COL
DALCOL
3.13Expected goals3.08
1Goals (no shootout)1
2.05Expected goals, 5 on 52.22
43Shot attempts72
35Unblocked attempts52
18Shots on goal34

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
1:30 COL No shift No shift · Bardakov, 10:44 on the bench
No shift from 9:58 of the 1st to 2:05 of the 2nd; 3 shifts (1:32) before that
16:20 COL No shift No shift · Bardakov, 10:31 on the bench
No shift from 6:18 to 16:49 of the 2nd; 6 shifts (2:46) before that
3rd Period
10:51 COL Deserve to win Deserve to win · COL takes the lead, 61–39%
DAL had led since 4:34 of the 2nd, by as much as 67%
11:40 COL No shift No shift · Brindley, 14:02 on the bench
No shift from 13:37 of the 2nd to 14:27 of the 3rd; 7 shifts (3:46) before that
15:20 COL Shortened bench Shortened bench · 2 forwards sat
Bardakov and Ivan: no shift after 17:26 of the 2nd
Overtime
3:20 COL Goalie Goalie · Wedgewood +2.0 goals saved
1 goal on 3.02 xG, 18 shots on goal
3:46 DAL Goalie Goalie · Oettinger +2.1 goals saved
1 goal on 3.08 xG, 34 shots on goal

Shot map

DAL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ COL shoots
Nathan MacKinnon: backhand, 21 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 4:38) Valeri Nichushkin: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 6:44) Devon Toews: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:01) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 10:48) Michael Bunting: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 15:16) Nathan MacKinnon: snap, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 15:48) Jason Robertson: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 16:03) Jason Robertson: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 16:13) Mavrik Bourque: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 16:37) Matt Duchene: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 16:42) Matt Duchene: wrap-around, 6 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 16:44) Brock Nelson: snap, 12 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 19:08) Nathan MacKinnon: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 19:27) Jason Robertson: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 19:47) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:18) Wyatt Johnston: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 0:33) Wyatt Johnston: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.30 (P2 0:37) Nicolas Roy: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 0:59) Nazem Kadri: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:29) Brett Kulak: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:23) Adam Erne: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:38) Gavin Brindley: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:48) Brent Burns: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:53) Nazem Kadri: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:54) Jamie Benn: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 4:21) Matt Duchene: wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 4:34) Tyler Myers: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 4:42) Cale Makar: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:19) Nathan Bastian: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 6:15) Brock Nelson: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 6:57) Jack Drury: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 7:49) Jack Drury: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 8:58) Joel Kiviranta: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 9:11) Lian Bichsel: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 10:14) Cale Makar: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 10:39) Oskar Bäck: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 10:47) Devon Toews: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:47) Michael Bunting: wrist, 80 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 13:01) Michael Bunting: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 13:14) Brock Nelson: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 15:15) Jason Robertson: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.22 (P2 15:30) Sam Malinski: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:33) Devon Toews: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 16:52) Martin Necas: slap, 28 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 17:07) Cale Makar: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 17:42) Brock Nelson: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 17:43) Devon Toews: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 17:44) Brent Burns: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 18:21) Matt Duchene: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 18:30) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 18:50) Devon Toews: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 18:53) Cale Makar: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 19:01) Esa Lindell: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 0:22) Mavrik Bourque: tip-in, 24 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 1:26) Colin Blackwell: tip-in, 24 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 2:21) Brent Burns: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:46) Brent Burns: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:03) Nicolas Roy: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 3:35) Nazem Kadri: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 5:15) Joel Kiviranta: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 6:50) Brett Kulak: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 7:19) Brett Kulak: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 7:30) Valeri Nichushkin: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 8:23) Josh Manson: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 8:53) Cale Makar: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 9:45) Cale Makar: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 9:49) Martin Necas: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 10:10) Nazem Kadri: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 10:51) Jason Robertson: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 11:19) Michael Bunting: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 11:52) Thomas Harley: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:57) Wyatt Johnston: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 13:43) Devon Toews: deflected, 10 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 14:58) Matt Duchene: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 17:25) Brock Nelson: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 18:02) Devon Toews: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 18:34) Miro Heiskanen: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.12 (OT 0:14) Martin Necas: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.09 (OT 0:52) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.10 (OT 2:08) Thomas Harley: backhand, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (OT 2:44) Jason Robertson: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.20 (OT 3:16) Jason Robertson: wrap-around, 6 ft, xG 0.29 (OT 3:19) Jason Robertson: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.05 (OT 3:20) Valeri Nichushkin: deflected, 10 ft, xG 0.15 (OT 3:46) Jason Robertson: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.12 (OT 4:39) Cale Makar: GOAL, snap, 24 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 18:33) Jason Robertson: GOAL, wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 6:18)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Dallas Stars

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
21 Jason Robertson 101 +1 111.19 1121:08
53 Wyatt Johnston 000 0 50.56 0120:20
95 Matt Duchene 000 0 50.36 0119:35
22 Mavrik Bourque 000 0 20.09 0019:13
49 Justin Hryckowian 000 0 00.00 2216:49
18 Sam Steel 000 0 00.00 0116:32
14 Jamie Benn 000 0 10.06 1015:56
58 Michael Bunting 000 0 40.25 1015:11
15 Colin Blackwell 000 0 20.05 6113:05
10 Oskar Bäck 000 +1 10.20 1111:41
11 Nathan Bastian 011 +1 10.07 5009:14
73 Adam Erne 000 0 10.03 4108:59
Defense
4 Miro Heiskanen 000 0 10.12 0228:12
23 Esa Lindell 000 0 10.05 0124:01
55 Thomas Harley 011 +1 30.03 0522:45
5 Nils Lundkvist 000 +1 20.00 0018:15
57 Tyler Myers 000 0 10.00 2214:28
6 Lian Bichsel 000 0 20.09 2114:18
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jake Oettinger 34133 .971 3.08 +2.08

Colorado Avalanche

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
11 Brock Nelson 000 0 70.36 1127:27
29 Nathan MacKinnon 011 0 80.35 0026:40
88 Martin Necas 000 0 50.28 3024:49
91 Nazem Kadri 011 0 60.18 2020:46
43 Valeri Nichushkin 000 0 30.36 1019:56
18 Jack Drury 000 0 30.12 0014:52
17 Parker Kelly 000 0 00.00 11114:45
10 Nicolas Roy 000 0 20.27 1013:37
22 Joel Kiviranta 000 0 20.09 2013:08
54 Gavin Brindley 000 -1 10.01 1003:50
49 Ivan Ivan 000 -1 10.00 0003:43
93 Zakhar Bardakov 000 -1 10.00 0003:23
Defense
7 Devon Toews 000 0 80.36 0025:33
8 Cale Makar 101 0 100.40 1124:39
70 Sam Malinski 000 0 30.01 0020:53
27 Brett Kulak 000 0 30.20 0118:12
42 Josh Manson 000 -1 20.02 4117:12
84 Brent Burns 000 -1 70.05 2115:35
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Scott Wedgewood 18117 .944 3.13 +2.13

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Dallas Stars

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
29 Jake Oettinger G +2.08 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +2.08 64:55
21 Jason Robertson L +2.00 +0.75 +0.77 +0.45 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 21:08
55 Thomas Harley D +1.15 +0.55 +0.02 +0.33 0.00 0.00 +0.25 — 22:45
11 Nathan Bastian R +1.11 +0.70 +0.05 +0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:14
53 Wyatt Johnston C +0.68 0.00 +0.36 +0.30 0.00 -0.03 +0.05 — 20:20
10 Oskar Bäck C +0.51 0.00 +0.13 +0.36 0.00 -0.03 +0.05 — 11:41
23 Esa Lindell D +0.29 0.00 +0.03 +0.21 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 24:01
22 Mavrik Bourque C +0.29 0.00 +0.06 +0.22 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 19:13
58 Michael Bunting L +0.24 0.00 +0.16 +0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:11
95 Matt Duchene C +0.11 0.00 +0.23 -0.13 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 19:35
5 Nils Lundkvist D +0.11 0.00 0.00 -0.02 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 18:15
6 Lian Bichsel D +0.07 0.00 +0.06 -0.04 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 14:18
4 Miro Heiskanen D -0.10 0.00 +0.08 -0.20 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 28:12
73 Adam Erne L -0.17 0.00 +0.02 -0.24 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 8:59
18 Sam Steel C -0.25 0.00 0.00 -0.31 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 16:32
14 Jamie Benn L -0.28 0.00 +0.04 -0.16 -0.15 +0.01 -0.02 — 15:56
15 Colin Blackwell C -0.35 0.00 +0.03 -0.39 0.00 -0.04 +0.05 — 13:05
57 Tyler Myers D -0.38 0.00 0.00 -0.33 -0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 14:28
49 Justin Hryckowian C -0.51 0.00 0.00 -0.61 0.00 -0.02 +0.12 — 16:49

Colorado Avalanche

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
41 Scott Wedgewood G +2.13 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +2.13 65:00
91 Nazem Kadri C +1.32 +0.70 +0.12 +0.53 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 20:46
8 Cale Makar D +1.22 +0.75 +0.26 +0.11 0.00 0.00 +0.09 — 24:39
7 Devon Toews D +1.03 0.00 +0.23 +0.82 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 25:33
29 Nathan MacKinnon C +0.81 +0.55 +0.23 +0.01 0.00 +0.04 -0.02 — 26:40
88 Martin Necas C +0.75 0.00 +0.18 +0.61 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 24:49
70 Sam Malinski D +0.67 0.00 +0.01 +0.68 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 20:53
11 Brock Nelson C +0.67 0.00 +0.24 +0.21 +0.15 +0.04 +0.03 — 27:27
17 Parker Kelly C +0.23 0.00 0.00 +0.04 +0.15 -0.01 +0.05 — 14:45
94 Joel Kiviranta L +0.15 0.00 +0.06 +0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:08
18 Jack Drury C +0.14 0.00 +0.08 +0.04 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 14:52
27 Brett Kulak D +0.04 0.00 +0.13 -0.17 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 18:12
13 Valeri Nichushkin R +0.03 0.00 +0.23 -0.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:56
82 Ivan Ivan C -0.16 0.00 0.00 -0.17 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 3:43
10 Nicolas Roy C -0.21 0.00 +0.17 -0.38 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:37
93 Zakhar Bardakov C -0.30 0.00 0.00 -0.15 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 3:23
42 Josh Manson D -0.46 0.00 +0.01 -0.50 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 17:12
54 Gavin Brindley C -0.54 0.00 +0.01 -0.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 3:50
84 Brent Burns D -0.83 0.00 +0.03 -0.89 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 15:35

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.