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St. Louis BluesSTL 1–2 Final/SO Calgary FlamesCGY

Wednesday, March 18, 2026

Final/SO 1st2nd3rdOTSO T SOG
St. Louis BluesSTL 01000 1 26
Calgary FlamesCGY 10002 2 31
Playoff odds, % Change
STL -0.9
CGY +0.0

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 18, 2026 8:43 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
2:34 CGY Connor Zary (11) Ryan Strome (10) · backhand xG 0.16 0–1 ▶
2nd Period
3:47 STL Dylan Holloway (15) Jimmy Snuggerud (21), Robert Thomas (29) · snap xG 0.14 1–1 ▶
3rd Period
No scoring
Overtime
No scoring
Shootout
CGY Morgan Frost vs Joel Hofer Missed
STL Jake Neighbours vs Devin Cooley Saved
CGY Joel Farabee vs Joel Hofer Goal
STL Jimmy Snuggerud vs Devin Cooley Saved
CGY Matvei Gridin vs Joel Hofer Goal

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

STL 44%Deserve to win56% CGY
STLCGY
2.66Expected goals2.99
1Goals (no shootout)1
2.17Expected goals, 5 on 51.27
53Shot attempts52
39Unblocked attempts40
26Shots on goal31

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
13:40 STL No shift No shift · Tucker, 13:50 on the bench
No shift after 3:37 of the 3rd; 12 shifts (9:02) before that

Shot map

STL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ CGY shoots
Blake Coleman: slap, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:01) Blake Coleman: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 5:06) Kevin Bahl: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:08) Robert Thomas: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 5:25) Jordan Kyrou: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:21) Dalibor Dvorsky: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 6:34) Blake Coleman: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 7:30) Theo Lindstein: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 8:14) Dalibor Dvorsky: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 8:26) Adam Klapka: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 10:08) Victor Olofsson: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 10:39) Connor Zary: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 11:10) Zayne Parekh: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 11:17) Matt Coronato: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 11:38) Colton Parayko: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:05) Otto Stenberg: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 13:07) Dalibor Dvorsky: slap, 34 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 13:13) Olli Maatta: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:03) Yegor Sharangovich: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:52) Philip Broberg: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 15:18) Colton Parayko: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 15:42) Victor Olofsson: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 17:36) Olli Maatta: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 18:05) Alexey Toropchenko: wrist, 91 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 18:17) Blake Coleman: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 19:05) Joel Hanley: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:01) Zach Whitecloud: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:33) Matt Coronato: snap, 6 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 4:53) Zayne Parekh: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:13) Victor Olofsson: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 5:49) Ryan Strome: slap, 31 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 6:32) Jonathan Drouin: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:50) Yegor Sharangovich: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 8:06) Matt Coronato: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 8:07) Joel Hanley: slap, 67 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 8:18) Colton Parayko: wrist, 73 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 11:54) Logan Mailloux: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 12:41) Logan Mailloux: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:45) Jimmy Snuggerud: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 13:03) Otto Stenberg: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 13:51) Connor Zary: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 16:20) Jordan Kyrou: slap, 22 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 17:51) Jimmy Snuggerud: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:19) Jonathan Drouin: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 19:09) Philip Broberg: slap, 30 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 0:41) Matt Coronato: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:08) Colton Parayko: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:03) Jack Finley: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 3:06) Jake Neighbours: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 4:16) Jonathan Drouin: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 4:52) Joel Hanley: slap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:02) Dylan Holloway: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 5:48) Colton Parayko: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 6:00) Colton Parayko: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:37) Connor Zary: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 7:55) Otto Stenberg: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 8:08) Otto Stenberg: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:17) Colton Parayko: slap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:40) Otto Stenberg: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 10:45) Dylan Holloway: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 10:50) Pavel Buchnevich: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 12:08) Blake Coleman: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:30) Blake Coleman: backhand, 82 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 13:40) Joel Farabee: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 13:50) Adam Klapka: tip-in, 64 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 15:19) Dylan Holloway: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:27) Olli Maatta: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 19:57) Dylan Holloway: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.11 (OT 1:07) Victor Olofsson: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.25 (OT 1:44) Pavel Buchnevich: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.13 (OT 2:07) Matvei Gridin: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.08 (OT 2:17) Matt Coronato: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.09 (OT 2:32) Victor Olofsson: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.10 (OT 3:17) Matt Coronato: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.29 (OT 3:22) Victor Olofsson: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.13 (OT 3:30) Morgan Frost: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.11 (OT 4:15) Pavel Buchnevich: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.14 (OT 4:59) Connor Zary: GOAL, backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 2:34) Dylan Holloway: GOAL, snap, 27 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 3:47)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

St. Louis Blues

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
81 Dylan Holloway 101 +1 70.38 3121:40
18 Robert Thomas 011 +1 10.11 0019:49
21 Jimmy Snuggerud 011 +1 20.13 2018:42
92 Jonathan Drouin 000 0 40.26 1018:01
89 Pavel Buchnevich 000 -1 50.37 0017:01
15 Dalibor Dvorsky 000 0 30.23 3115:01
28 Otto Stenberg 000 0 50.35 0114:32
25 Jordan Kyrou 000 -1 30.14 0014:18
63 Jake Neighbours 000 -1 10.13 5012:26
22 Pius Suter 000 0 10.00 0112:20
37 Jack Finley 000 0 10.07 2010:28
13 Alexey Toropchenko 000 0 20.00 1009:46
Defense
6 Philip Broberg 000 0 30.10 3129:06
23 Logan Mailloux 000 0 40.05 2426:56
55 Colton Parayko 000 +1 80.18 3124:20
17 Cam Fowler 000 -1 00.00 0121:58
4 Theo Lindstein 000 +1 20.16 1014:11
75 Tyler Tucker 000 -1 10.00 0009:02
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Joel Hofer 31130 .968 2.99 +1.99

Calgary Flames

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
11 Mikael Backlund 000 0 10.00 0020:53
22 Ryan Strome 011 0 20.10 0019:50
17 Yegor Sharangovich 000 +1 20.12 0019:21
20 Blake Coleman 000 -1 70.21 4118:01
47 Connor Zary 101 0 50.37 1017:33
86 Joel Farabee 000 0 10.03 0017:08
27 Matt Coronato 000 0 60.66 2015:36
95 Victor Olofsson 000 0 70.91 0014:34
92 Matvei Gridin 000 0 10.08 0012:49
16 Morgan Frost 000 0 10.11 0112:29
43 Adam Klapka 000 0 20.15 1012:24
76 Martin Pospisil 000 0 00.00 4110:20
Defense
3 Olli Maatta 000 0 50.11 0223:43
28 Zach Whitecloud 000 0 20.02 1222:56
7 Kevin Bahl 000 -1 20.01 3221:42
48 Hunter Brzustewicz 000 +1 10.00 0020:33
19 Zayne Parekh 000 0 20.07 0018:18
44 Joel Hanley 000 0 50.05 1015:27
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Devin Cooley 26125 .962 2.66 +1.66

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

St. Louis Blues

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
30 Joel Hofer G +1.99 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.99 65:00
55 Colton Parayko D +1.97 0.00 +0.12 +1.75 +0.15 0.00 -0.05 — 24:20
81 Dylan Holloway L +1.75 +0.75 +0.25 +0.65 0.00 +0.01 +0.09 — 21:40
41 Theo Lindstein D +1.29 0.00 +0.10 +1.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:11
21 Jimmy Snuggerud R +1.27 +0.70 +0.08 +0.53 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 18:42
18 Robert Thomas C +1.26 +0.55 +0.07 +0.77 -0.15 +0.05 -0.04 — 19:49
28 Otto Stenberg C +0.98 0.00 +0.23 +0.72 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 14:32
92 Jonathan Drouin L +0.58 0.00 +0.17 +0.48 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 18:01
54 Dalibor Dvorsky R +0.43 0.00 +0.15 +0.27 0.00 -0.06 +0.07 — 15:01
6 Philip Broberg D +0.36 0.00 +0.07 +0.24 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 29:06
23 Logan Mailloux D +0.28 0.00 +0.03 +0.07 0.00 0.00 +0.18 — 26:56
89 Pavel Buchnevich L +0.08 0.00 +0.24 +0.02 -0.15 -0.01 -0.02 — 17:01
25 Jordan Kyrou R +0.03 0.00 +0.09 -0.05 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 14:18
37 Jack Finley C -0.04 0.00 +0.04 -0.10 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 10:28
13 Alexey Toropchenko R -0.05 0.00 0.00 -0.07 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 9:46
63 Jake Neighbours L -0.16 0.00 +0.09 -0.08 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 12:26
22 Pius Suter C -0.19 0.00 0.00 -0.10 -0.15 +0.01 +0.05 — 12:20
17 Cam Fowler D -0.36 0.00 0.00 -0.54 +0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 21:58
75 Tyler Tucker D -0.80 0.00 0.00 -0.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:02

Calgary Flames

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
1 Devin Cooley G +1.66 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.66 65:00
47 Connor Zary C +0.80 +0.75 +0.24 -0.34 +0.15 +0.02 -0.02 — 17:33
95 Victor Olofsson L +0.77 0.00 +0.59 +0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:34
43 Adam Klapka R +0.54 0.00 +0.10 +0.24 +0.22 0.00 -0.02 — 11:44
22 Ryan Strome C +0.48 +0.70 +0.07 -0.30 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 19:50
48 Hunter Brzustewicz D +0.18 0.00 0.00 +0.20 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 19:53
3 Olli Maatta D +0.12 0.00 +0.07 -0.10 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 23:03
17 Yegor Sharangovich C +0.07 0.00 +0.08 -0.03 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 19:21
76 Martin Pospisil C -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.11 +0.08 -0.02 +0.05 — 10:22
27 Matt Coronato R -0.10 0.00 +0.43 -0.50 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 16:16
86 Joel Farabee L -0.23 0.00 +0.02 -0.23 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:08
11 Mikael Backlund C -0.26 0.00 0.00 -0.17 0.00 -0.05 -0.04 — 20:53
16 Morgan Frost C -0.26 0.00 +0.07 -0.46 0.00 +0.03 +0.09 — 13:09
44 Joel Hanley D -0.35 0.00 +0.03 -0.36 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:07
28 Zach Whitecloud D -0.45 0.00 +0.01 -0.56 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 22:16
19 Zayne Parekh D -0.46 0.00 +0.04 -0.48 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 18:56
92 Matvei Gridin R -0.48 0.00 +0.05 -0.52 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:29
7 Kevin Bahl D -0.68 0.00 0.00 -0.78 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 21:02
20 Blake Coleman L -0.74 0.00 +0.14 -0.62 -0.30 0.00 +0.05 — 18:01

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.