Thursday, March 19, 2026
Playoff odds, %
Change
CHI
+0.1
MIN
+0.0
How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 19, 2026 7:12 PM EDT.
Highlights
Shot quality
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken,
the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
CHI 57%Deserve to win 43% MIN
CHI MIN
2.86 Expected goals 2.37
2 Goals (no shootout) 1
1.74 Expected goals, 5 on 5 1.10
57 Shot attempts 53
40 Unblocked attempts 43
26 Shots on goal 29
Game notes
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is
counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the
shots' expected goals (xG).
3rd Period
17:57
MIN
Pulled goalie
Pulled goalie · Pulled Wallstedt, down 2–1
With 2:03 left
Shot map
CHI shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal → MIN shoots
Quinn Hughes: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 2:39)
Mats Zuccarello: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 3:56)
Mats Zuccarello: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 4:15)
Frank Nazar: deflected, 19 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 4:44)
Frank Nazar: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 4:51)
Wyatt Kaiser: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:09)
Yakov Trenin: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:41)
Hunter Haight: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 6:02)
Andrew Mangiapane: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 6:52)
Ryan Hartman: wrist, 86 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 6:58)
Ethan Del Mastro: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:07)
Frank Nazar: slap, 30 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 9:56)
Connor Bedard: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 10:05)
Teuvo Teravainen: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 10:12)
Connor Bedard: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 10:34)
Nick Lardis: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 11:20)
Sam Rinzel: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 11:31)
Matt Boldy: deflected, 12 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 12:32)
Ryan Hartman: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 13:06)
Connor Bedard: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:49)
Tyler Bertuzzi: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 14:13)
Marcus Johansson: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 14:24)
Frank Nazar: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 16:47)
Mats Zuccarello: backhand, 21 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 19:16)
Wyatt Kaiser: wrist, 168 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 19:48)
Mats Zuccarello: backhand, 20 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 0:36)
Matt Boldy: tip-in, 76 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 0:56)
Louis Crevier: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:07)
Connor Bedard: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 3:22)
Andre Burakovsky: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 4:36)
Brock Faber: backhand, 15 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 4:56)
Ryan Hartman: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:37)
Marcus Johansson: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 7:50)
Tyler Bertuzzi: wrist, 94 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 7:56)
Frank Nazar: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 8:30)
Hunter Haight: backhand, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:01)
Vladimir Tarasenko: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 13:24)
Ryan Hartman: poke, 6 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 13:51)
Ryan Hartman: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 14:09)
Jared Spurgeon: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:30)
Tyler Bertuzzi: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 16:27)
Marcus Johansson: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 16:36)
Jonas Brodin: wrist, 93 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 17:04)
Wyatt Kaiser: wrist, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:23)
Vladimir Tarasenko: tip-in, 77 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 17:49)
Alex Vlasic: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 18:40)
Zach Bogosian: snap, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:05)
Jake Middleton: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 19:09)
Michael McCarron: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 0:23)
Vladimir Tarasenko: wrap-around, 6 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 0:55)
Alex Vlasic: wrist, 143 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 1:25)
Andre Burakovsky: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 2:14)
Mats Zuccarello: tip-in, 23 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 3:31)
Quinn Hughes: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 3:42)
Sam Rinzel: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 5:16)
Quinn Hughes: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:24)
Matt Boldy: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 6:15)
Matt Boldy: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 6:51)
Quinn Hughes: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 7:03)
Ryan Hartman: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 7:11)
Vladimir Tarasenko: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 7:22)
Ryan Greene: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 7:55)
Brock Faber: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 9:20)
Quinn Hughes: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:30)
Jared Spurgeon: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:59)
Tyler Bertuzzi: backhand, 18 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 12:18)
Connor Bedard: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 12:44)
Matt Grzelcyk: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:13)
Ilya Mikheyev: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:49)
Connor Bedard: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 14:03)
Connor Bedard: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 14:13)
Tyler Bertuzzi: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 15:05)
Connor Bedard: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 15:17)
Sam Rinzel: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 15:47)
Connor Bedard: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 17:30)
Matt Boldy: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 18:56)
Marcus Johansson: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 18:58)
Louis Crevier: snap, 166 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 19:17)
Matt Boldy: backhand, 15 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 19:52)
Mats Zuccarello: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 19:57)
Ilya Mikheyev: GOAL, wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 16:22)
Connor Bedard: GOAL, backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.28 (P2 11:47)
Nico Sturm: GOAL, snap, 32 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 15:47)
About these numbers
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot
from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the
share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how
often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count
as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map
leaves them out.
All columns
Box score
Chicago Blackhawks
Minnesota Wild
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
Player ratings
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
Chicago Blackhawks
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
98 Connor Bedard C
+2.30
+0.75
+0.69
+0.84
0.00
-0.03
+0.05
—
23:54
30 Spencer Knight G
+1.37
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
+1.37
59:45
95 Ilya Mikheyev R
+0.91
+0.75
+0.12
+0.05
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
15:10
59 Tyler Bertuzzi L
+0.89
0.00
+0.26
+0.65
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
19:56
86 Teuvo Teravainen C
+0.74
0.00
+0.01
+0.77
0.00
-0.02
-0.02
—
19:07
46 Louis Crevier D
+0.69
0.00
+0.08
+0.36
+0.15
0.00
+0.10
—
18:01
44 Wyatt Kaiser D
+0.68
0.00
+0.02
+0.59
0.00
0.00
+0.07
—
18:07
26 Andrew Mangiapane L
+0.68
+0.70
+0.05
-0.11
0.00
-0.01
+0.05
—
12:24
55 Artyom Levshunov D
+0.63
0.00
0.00
+0.60
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
20:21
91 Frank Nazar C
+0.47
0.00
+0.28
+0.23
0.00
-0.02
-0.02
—
19:34
72 Alex Vlasic D
+0.33
0.00
+0.01
+0.26
0.00
0.00
+0.06
—
21:46
28 Andre Burakovsky L
+0.27
0.00
+0.07
+0.33
-0.15
0.00
+0.02
—
20:03
20 Ryan Greene C
+0.14
0.00
+0.12
+0.14
-0.15
+0.01
+0.03
—
19:51
8 Ryan Donato C
+0.13
0.00
0.00
-0.19
+0.30
+0.02
0.00
—
13:32
84 Landon Slaggert L
+0.10
0.00
0.00
+0.10
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
7:14
48 Matt Grzelcyk D
+0.05
0.00
+0.01
+0.13
-0.15
0.00
+0.05
—
12:53
6 Sam Rinzel D
-0.11
0.00
+0.09
-0.16
0.00
0.00
-0.04
—
16:57
38 Ethan Del Mastro D
-0.11
0.00
+0.01
-0.12
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
6:48
76 Nick Lardis L
-0.20
0.00
+0.03
-0.23
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
8:37
Minnesota Wild
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
37 Hunter Haight C
+1.12
+0.70
+0.02
+0.24
+0.15
+0.01
0.00
—
10:51
78 Nico Sturm C
+1.01
+0.75
+0.03
+0.17
0.00
-0.02
+0.07
—
11:12
30 Jesper Wallstedt G
+0.74
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
+0.74
57:57
7 Brock Faber D
+0.35
+0.55
+0.13
-0.54
0.00
0.00
+0.20
—
23:01
43 Quinn Hughes D
+0.25
0.00
+0.13
+0.17
0.00
0.00
-0.04
—
28:06
46 Jared Spurgeon D
+0.19
0.00
+0.01
+0.05
0.00
0.00
+0.13
—
22:16
24 Zach Bogosian D
+0.07
0.00
+0.01
+0.12
0.00
0.00
-0.06
—
9:28
90 Marcus Johansson L
-0.04
0.00
+0.14
-0.19
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
16:24
12 Matt Boldy L
-0.05
0.00
+0.31
-0.40
0.00
+0.02
+0.03
—
23:25
47 Michael McCarron C
-0.13
0.00
+0.11
-0.27
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
12:43
10 Bobby Brink R
-0.15
0.00
0.00
-0.13
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
14:17
5 Jake Middleton D
-0.15
0.00
+0.02
-0.32
+0.15
0.00
0.00
—
13:37
13 Yakov Trenin C
-0.15
0.00
+0.01
+0.16
-0.30
-0.01
-0.02
—
10:05
22 Danila Yurov R
-0.20
0.00
0.00
-0.18
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
12:49
71 Nick Foligno L
-0.25
0.00
0.00
-0.31
0.00
+0.06
0.00
—
12:10
91 Vladimir Tarasenko R
-0.27
0.00
+0.15
-0.49
0.00
0.00
+0.07
—
17:48
36 Mats Zuccarello R
-0.37
0.00
+0.14
-0.65
+0.15
+0.01
-0.02
—
19:57
38 Ryan Hartman R
-0.54
0.00
+0.32
-0.69
-0.15
-0.02
0.00
—
19:17
25 Jonas Brodin D
-0.90
0.00
0.00
-0.98
0.00
0.00
+0.08
—
18:37
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a
player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays,
all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.