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Tampa Bay LightningTBL 6–2 Final Vancouver CanucksVAN

Thursday, March 19, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Tampa Bay LightningTBL 132 6 31
Vancouver CanucksVAN 011 2 21
Playoff odds, % Change
TBL +0.4
VAN +0.0

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 19, 2026 9:17 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
17:37 TBL Jake Guentzel (30) Charle-Edouard D'Astous (17), Ryan McDonagh (8) · tip-in xG 0.10 1–0 ▶
2nd Period
0:49 TBL Darren Raddysh (18) Nikita Kucherov (75), Anthony Cirelli (28) · slap xG 0.07 2–0 ▶
4:16 TBL Yanni Gourde (9) Darren Raddysh (42), Pontus Holmberg (11) · tip-in xG 0.08 3–0 ▶
5:31 TBL Nikita Kucherov (38) Erik Cernak (7), Anthony Cirelli (29) · wrist xG 0.01 4–0 ▶
12:06 VAN Liam Ohgren (7) Brock Boeser (20), Marco Rossi (17) · wrist xG 0.05 4–1 ▶
3rd Period
7:04 VAN Linus Karlsson (13) Marco Rossi (18) · bat xG 0.07 4–2 ▶
7:36 TBL Anthony Cirelli (17) Brandon Hagel (33), Erik Cernak (8) · deflected xG 0.14 5–2 ▶
10:35 TBL Brandon Hagel (32) Nikita Kucherov (76), J.J. Moser (18) · snap xG 0.10 6–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TBL 69%Deserve to win31% VAN
TBLVAN
2.91Expected goals1.88
6Goals (no shootout)2
2.84Expected goals, 5 on 51.67
56Shot attempts50
47Unblocked attempts36
31Shots on goal21

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
5:31 VAN Goalie Goalie · Lankinen −2.3 goals saved
4 goals on 1.72 xG, 20 shots on goal
7:00 TBL No shift No shift · Hedman, 38:30 on the bench
No shift after 16:49 of the 1st; 6 shifts (4:44) before that

Shot map

TBL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ VAN shoots
Elias Pettersson: tip-in, 28 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 3:37) Brandon Hagel: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 3:53) J.J. Moser: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:59) Gage Goncalves: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 5:20) Evander Kane: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 6:07) Jake DeBrusk: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 7:01) Teddy Blueger: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 8:06) Darren Raddysh: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 9:13) Gage Goncalves: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.24 (P1 9:21) Gage Goncalves: tip-in, 29 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 10:14) Victor Hedman: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 10:42) Nikita Kucherov: tip-in, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:49) Nikita Kucherov: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 10:55) Darren Raddysh: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 10:59) Darren Raddysh: backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.23 (P1 11:36) Brayden Point: snap, 5 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 11:37) Brayden Point: slap, 5 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 11:38) Jake Guentzel: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 11:45) Darren Raddysh: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 11:56) Nikita Kucherov: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:13) Jake DeBrusk: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 12:44) Teddy Blueger: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 14:31) Zeev Buium: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 14:51) Evander Kane: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 16:55) Filip Hronek: slap, 87 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 19:14) Elias Pettersson: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 19:52) Ryan McDonagh: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 0:11) Anthony Cirelli: bat, 9 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 0:23) Anthony Cirelli: snap, 6 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 0:24) Darren Raddysh: slap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:33) J.J. Moser: snap, 8 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 1:09) Jake DeBrusk: snap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:30) Linus Karlsson: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 2:18) Brandon Hagel: slap, 25 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 2:29) Jake Guentzel: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:32) Erik Cernak: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:59) Jake DeBrusk: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 3:27) Zemgus Girgensons: backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 4:09) Tom Willander: snap, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:44) Brandon Hagel: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 8:49) Marcus Pettersson: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 9:22) Brandon Hagel: wrist, 184 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 10:02) Teddy Blueger: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 12:14) Nikita Kucherov: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 14:21) Erik Cernak: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 15:16) Zemgus Girgensons: tip-in, 82 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 17:17) Filip Hronek: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 18:23) Jake DeBrusk: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 19:02) Filip Hronek: wrist, 101 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 0:29) Jake Guentzel: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 1:01) Victor Mancini: snap, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:57) Elias Pettersson: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:24) Liam Ohgren: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 4:28) Nils Hoglander: deflected, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 5:14) Jake DeBrusk: backhand, 15 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 6:37) Marco Rossi: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 7:03) Anthony Cirelli: slap, 31 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 7:10) Brayden Point: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:45) Brayden Point: deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 7:46) Elias Pettersson: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 8:20) Victor Mancini: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 8:49) Darren Raddysh: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 9:58) Elias Pettersson: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 11:55) Elias Pettersson: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:59) Yanni Gourde: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:26) Tom Willander: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:32) Brock Boeser: tip-in, 30 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 13:51) Tom Willander: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 14:11) Yanni Gourde: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 15:14) Pontus Holmberg: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:32) Darren Raddysh: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 15:40) Victor Mancini: wrist, 150 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 17:40) Darren Raddysh: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 18:08) Charle-Edouard D'Astous: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 19:36) Linus Karlsson: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 19:54) Jake Guentzel: GOAL, tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 17:37) Darren Raddysh: GOAL, slap, 42 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 0:49) Yanni Gourde: GOAL, tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 4:16) Nikita Kucherov: GOAL, wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:31) Liam Ohgren: GOAL, wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 12:06) Linus Karlsson: GOAL, bat, 7 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 7:04) Anthony Cirelli: GOAL, deflected, 7 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 7:36) Brandon Hagel: GOAL, snap, 25 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 10:35)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Tampa Bay Lightning

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
38 Brandon Hagel 112 +4 60.43 0020:01
71 Anthony Cirelli 123 +3 50.39 0117:57
86 Nikita Kucherov 123 +4 70.22 1116:10
59 Jake Guentzel 101 0 40.29 0015:57
21 Brayden Point 000 0 40.17 0015:06
93 Gage Goncalves 000 -1 30.32 1114:43
37 Yanni Gourde 101 0 30.14 0013:49
90 Corey Perry 000 0 00.00 0013:48
20 Nick Paul 000 +1 20.00 2113:17
28 Oliver Bjorkstrand 000 +1 00.00 3012:33
29 Pontus Holmberg 011 0 10.01 0012:29
28 Zemgus Girgensons 000 0 20.07 4211:39
Defense
43 Darren Raddysh 112 +2 100.55 0024:50
27 Ryan McDonagh 011 +2 10.00 0223:27
90 J.J. Moser 011 +2 20.06 1222:55
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous 011 +1 20.14 0222:30
81 Erik Cernak 022 +1 30.08 0120:05
77 Victor Hedman 000 0 10.03 0104:44
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy 21219 .905 1.88 -0.12

Vancouver Canucks

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
6 Brock Boeser 011 -1 30.05 1119:24
23 Marco Rossi 022 0 20.14 3017:03
74 Jake DeBrusk 000 -2 60.54 0016:55
40 Elias Pettersson 000 -1 30.17 0016:10
94 Linus Karlsson 101 -2 40.17 1015:55
18 Drew O'Connor 000 -1 00.00 1015:51
73 Teddy Blueger 000 -3 40.22 3015:40
21 Nils Hoglander 000 0 40.09 0014:25
92 Liam Ohgren 101 -1 20.18 2114:15
54 Aatu Räty 000 0 20.00 6013:16
63 Max Sasson 000 -1 00.00 0011:23
91 Evander Kane 000 0 20.03 0011:16
Defense
17 Filip Hronek 000 -2 40.01 0023:55
8 Zeev Buium 000 -1 40.05 2121:15
25 Elias Pettersson 000 -2 30.05 3018:58
26 Marcus Pettersson 000 -1 10.04 1217:58
5 Tom Willander 000 -2 30.04 0017:40
90 Victor Mancini 000 0 30.10 2116:41
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Kevin Lankinen 31625 .806 2.91 -3.09

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
86 Nikita Kucherov R +3.57 +2.15 +0.14 +1.25 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 16:10
43 Darren Raddysh D +3.36 +1.45 +0.35 +1.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 24:50
38 Brandon Hagel L +3.26 +1.45 +0.28 +1.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 20:01
71 Anthony Cirelli C +3.24 +1.85 +0.25 +1.10 0.00 +0.03 +0.01 — 17:57
90 J.J. Moser D +2.29 +0.55 +0.04 +1.60 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 22:55
59 Jake Guentzel C +1.68 +0.75 +0.19 +0.95 -0.15 -0.02 -0.04 — 15:57
81 Erik Cernak D +1.36 +1.25 +0.05 -0.01 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 20:05
27 Ryan McDonagh D +1.18 +0.55 0.00 +0.52 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 23:27
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D +1.10 +0.70 +0.09 +0.21 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 22:30
21 Brayden Point C +1.10 0.00 +0.11 +0.97 0.00 +0.04 -0.02 — 15:06
93 Gage Goncalves C +0.86 0.00 +0.21 +0.60 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 14:43
37 Yanni Gourde C +0.83 +0.75 +0.09 -0.01 0.00 -0.03 +0.02 — 13:49
29 Pontus Holmberg R +0.57 +0.55 +0.01 +0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:29
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R +0.03 0.00 0.00 +0.05 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:33
77 Victor Hedman D -0.03 0.00 +0.02 -0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 4:44
10 Corey Perry R -0.11 0.00 0.00 -0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:48
88 Andrei Vasilevskiy G -0.12 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.12 60:00
20 Nick Paul L -0.17 0.00 0.00 -0.19 0.00 +0.01 +0.01 — 13:17
28 Zemgus Girgensons C -0.32 0.00 +0.05 -0.47 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 11:39

Vancouver Canucks

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
90 Victor Mancini D +0.60 0.00 +0.07 +0.49 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 16:41
94 Linus Karlsson C +0.59 +0.75 +0.11 -0.42 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 15:55
93 Marco Rossi C +0.33 +1.25 +0.09 -1.02 0.00 -0.01 +0.02 — 17:03
92 Liam Ohgren L +0.28 +0.75 +0.12 -0.64 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 14:15
18 Drew O'Connor L +0.03 0.00 0.00 -0.12 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 15:51
91 Evander Kane L -0.03 0.00 +0.02 -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 11:16
40 Elias Pettersson C -0.11 0.00 +0.11 -0.21 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 16:10
29 Marcus Pettersson D -0.15 0.00 +0.03 -0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 17:58
21 Nils Hoglander L -0.16 0.00 +0.06 -0.20 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:25
74 Jake DeBrusk L -0.17 0.00 +0.35 -0.50 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:55
63 Max Sasson C -0.34 0.00 0.00 -0.34 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:23
54 Aatu Räty C -0.36 0.00 0.00 -0.40 0.00 +0.02 +0.02 — 13:16
6 Brock Boeser R -0.48 +0.70 +0.04 -1.24 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 19:24
5 Tom Willander D -0.53 0.00 +0.03 -0.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:40
25 Elias Pettersson D -0.71 0.00 +0.03 -0.70 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 18:58
24 Zeev Buium D -0.73 0.00 +0.03 -0.82 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 21:15
53 Teddy Blueger C -0.74 0.00 +0.14 -0.72 -0.15 -0.03 +0.02 — 15:40
17 Filip Hronek D -1.86 0.00 +0.01 -1.83 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 23:55
32 Kevin Lankinen G -3.09 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -3.09 60:00

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.