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Carolina HurricanesCAR 4–3 Final/OT Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

Friday, March 20, 2026

Final/OT 1st2nd3rdOT T SOG
Carolina HurricanesCAR 0301 4 36
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 1110 3 26
Playoff odds, % Change
CAR +0.1
TOR -0.0

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 20, 2026 6:54 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
11:48 TOR Dakota Joshua (9) Bo Groulx (2), Matias Maccelli (20) · wrist xG 0.42 0–1 ▶
2nd Period
5:57 CAR Jordan Staal (17)PP Seth Jarvis (27), Sebastian Aho (46) · tip-in xG 0.12 1–1 ▶
12:35 CAR Eric Robinson (12)PS Unassisted · wrist xG 0.32 2–1 ▶
13:47 TOR John Tavares (24) Calle Jarnkrok (2), Jake McCabe (18) · wrist xG 0.13 2–2 ▶
17:40 CAR K'Andre Miller (6)SH Unassisted · backhand xG 0.18 3–2 ▶
3rd Period
13:50 TOR William Nylander (24) Matias Maccelli (21) · wrist xG 0.17 3–3 ▶
Overtime
0:41 CAR Alexander Nikishin (10) Seth Jarvis (28), Sebastian Aho (47) · wrist xG 0.06 4–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

CAR 75%Deserve to win25% TOR
CARTOR
4.06Expected goals2.45
4Goals (no shootout)3
2.08Expected goals, 5 on 51.92
77Shot attempts43
54Unblocked attempts32
36Shots on goal26

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
4:27 CAR Deserve to win Deserve to win · CAR takes the lead, 62–38%
TOR had led since 11:48 of the 1st, by as much as 62%
9:40 CAR xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced TOR 2.06–0.18
In xG over 10 minutes, 3:30 to 13:30 of the 2nd; goals 2–0

Shot map

CAR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TOR shoots
Sean Walker: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:46) Jackson Blake: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 4:42) Troy Stecher: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 5:38) William Nylander: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 6:28) Easton Cowan: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:05) Sean Walker: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 7:18) Jackson Blake: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 7:19) Alexander Nikishin: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 8:10) Jake McCabe: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:06) Taylor Hall: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 11:12) Bo Groulx: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 11:45) Jalen Chatfield: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 15:00) Sebastian Aho: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 15:28) Jackson Blake: tip-in, 24 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 17:40) Steven Lorentz: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 18:17) Seth Jarvis: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 18:40) Seth Jarvis: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 18:51) Mike Reilly: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:48) Alexander Nikishin: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 19:51) Dakota Joshua: deflected, 8 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 0:36) Mark Jankowski: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:51) Alexander Nikishin: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 2:00) Troy Stecher: wrist, 139 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 2:06) Sean Walker: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 3:35) Taylor Hall: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 4:13) Taylor Hall: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 4:27) Sean Walker: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 5:00) Alexander Nikishin: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:04) Jordan Staal: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 5:21) Alexander Nikishin: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 5:34) William Carrier: deflected, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 6:24) Max Domi: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 6:48) Sean Walker: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 8:00) Jordan Staal: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 8:02) Bo Groulx: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 8:17) Eric Robinson: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 9:22) Seth Jarvis: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.27 (P2 9:33) Brandon Carlo: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:31) Nikolaj Ehlers: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:53) Jake McCabe: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 11:39) Logan Stankoven: deflected, 11 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 13:21) Logan Stankoven: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.31 (P2 13:23) Jackson Blake: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 13:23) Nick Robertson: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 14:58) John Tavares: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 15:05) Sebastian Aho: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 16:53) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 17:05) Matthew Knies: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.28 (P2 17:07) Easton Cowan: backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 18:26) Jordan Staal: wrap-around, 6 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 0:58) Jalen Chatfield: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 1:03) John Tavares: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 2:22) Nikolaj Ehlers: backhand, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:29) Sebastian Aho: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 4:46) Andrei Svechnikov: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 5:08) Jackson Blake: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 5:41) Logan Stankoven: backhand, 181 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 6:16) Nikolaj Ehlers: backhand, 27 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:44) Simon Benoit: wrist, 96 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 8:08) Seth Jarvis: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 8:29) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 8:39) William Nylander: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 9:16) Seth Jarvis: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 10:17) Steven Lorentz: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 10:27) Bo Groulx: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 10:56) Logan Stankoven: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 11:25) Jackson Blake: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 11:34) Brandon Carlo: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 13:37) William Nylander: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:39) Max Domi: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:40) Troy Stecher: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 14:25) Jaccob Slavin: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:04) Jackson Blake: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 15:05) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 15:14) Taylor Hall: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 17:43) Max Domi: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 17:51) Jackson Blake: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 18:12) Sean Walker: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 18:18) Sebastian Aho: backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 19:47) Dakota Joshua: GOAL, wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.42 (P1 11:48) Jordan Staal: GOAL, tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 5:57) Eric Robinson: GOAL, wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.32 (P2 12:35) John Tavares: GOAL, wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 13:47) K'Andre Miller: GOAL, backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 17:40) William Nylander: GOAL, wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 13:50) Alexander Nikishin: GOAL, wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (OT 0:41)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Carolina Hurricanes

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
20 Sebastian Aho 022 0 60.32 0018:47
11 Jordan Staal 101 -1 40.37 4218:03
27 Nikolaj Ehlers 000 -1 50.04 2018:00
24 Seth Jarvis 022 0 70.52 0017:56
71 Taylor Hall 000 0 80.43 1017:39
53 Jackson Blake 000 0 90.58 0117:07
22 Logan Stankoven 000 0 40.49 0016:32
48 Jordan Martinook 000 -1 10.00 2116:31
37 Andrei Svechnikov 000 -2 10.04 0114:36
77 Mark Jankowski 000 0 20.01 2110:40
28 William Carrier 000 0 10.02 5009:32
50 Eric Robinson 101 +1 20.42 2108:25
Defense
19 K'Andre Miller 101 +1 20.18 0023:58
74 Jaccob Slavin 000 -2 20.01 0123:58
5 Jalen Chatfield 000 0 20.13 0022:07
26 Sean Walker 000 -1 110.29 2320:42
21 Alexander Nikishin 101 0 80.21 0014:23
6 Mike Reilly 000 -1 20.01 0009:07
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Brandon Bussi 26323 .885 2.45 -0.55

Toronto Maple Leafs

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
88 William Nylander 101 -1 40.26 0120:39
89 Matthew Knies 000 -1 10.28 0020:01
91 John Tavares 101 -1 40.30 4016:12
29 Bo Groulx 011 +1 30.13 2115:53
11 Max Domi 000 +1 30.16 0015:36
19 Calle Jarnkrok 011 +1 10.00 0014:46
63 Matias Maccelli 022 +1 10.00 0212:59
53 Easton Cowan 000 0 20.08 1112:21
18 Steven Lorentz 000 +1 30.12 3212:18
81 Dakota Joshua 101 +1 20.48 1011:25
14 Nick Robertson 000 0 30.11 1110:39
26 Jacob Quillan 000 0 00.00 2110:12
Defense
22 Jake McCabe 011 +2 30.06 0122:55
28 Troy Stecher 000 0 30.18 1321:41
44 Simon Benoit 000 0 20.00 3321:28
44 Morgan Rielly 000 -1 40.11 0418:33
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson 000 +2 20.11 1018:01
25 Brandon Carlo 000 +1 20.07 2116:24
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Joseph Woll 36432 .889 4.06 +0.06

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Carolina Hurricanes

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
24 Seth Jarvis C +1.66 +1.40 +0.34 -0.12 0.00 +0.01 +0.04 — 17:56
50 Eric Robinson L +1.37 +0.75 +0.27 -0.18 +0.45 0.00 +0.07 — 8:25
19 K'Andre Miller D +1.27 +0.75 +0.12 +0.43 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 23:58
20 Sebastian Aho C +1.21 +1.10 +0.21 -0.12 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 18:47
53 Jackson Blake R +1.15 0.00 +0.38 +0.73 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:07
71 Taylor Hall L +1.05 0.00 +0.28 +0.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:39
22 Logan Stankoven C +0.99 0.00 +0.32 +0.68 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 16:32
21 Alexander Nikishin D +0.74 +0.75 +0.14 +0.04 -0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 14:23
26 Sean Walker D +0.53 0.00 +0.19 +0.23 0.00 0.00 +0.11 — 20:42
11 Jordan Staal C +0.47 +0.75 +0.24 -0.57 0.00 -0.03 +0.08 — 18:03
6 Mike Reilly D +0.07 0.00 0.00 +0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:07
37 Andrei Svechnikov R -0.14 0.00 +0.03 -0.21 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 14:36
5 Jalen Chatfield D -0.18 0.00 +0.08 -0.22 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 22:07
77 Mark Jankowski L -0.19 0.00 +0.01 -0.26 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 10:40
27 Nikolaj Ehlers L -0.22 0.00 +0.03 -0.54 +0.30 0.00 0.00 — 18:00
28 William Carrier L -0.38 0.00 +0.01 -0.41 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 9:32
32 Brandon Bussi G -0.55 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.55 60:41
48 Jordan Martinook L -0.56 0.00 0.00 -0.59 0.00 -0.02 +0.05 — 16:31
74 Jaccob Slavin D -1.01 0.00 +0.01 -1.09 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 23:58

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
22 Jake McCabe D +1.88 +0.55 +0.04 +1.22 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 22:55
63 Matias Maccelli L +1.66 +1.25 0.00 +0.33 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 12:59
91 John Tavares C +1.51 +0.75 +0.19 +0.52 0.00 +0.05 0.00 — 16:12
88 William Nylander R +1.33 +0.75 +0.17 +0.39 0.00 +0.01 +0.01 — 20:39
81 Dakota Joshua C +0.81 +0.75 +0.32 -0.25 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 11:25
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D +0.71 0.00 +0.07 +0.77 -0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 18:01
19 Calle Jarnkrok C +0.67 +0.70 0.00 +0.02 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 — 14:46
29 Bo Groulx C +0.40 +0.70 +0.08 -0.39 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 15:53
18 Steven Lorentz C +0.37 0.00 +0.08 +0.04 +0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 12:18
11 Max Domi C +0.36 0.00 +0.11 +0.31 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 — 15:36
53 Easton Cowan R +0.26 0.00 +0.05 +0.31 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 12:21
44 Morgan Rielly D +0.15 0.00 +0.07 -0.10 0.00 0.00 +0.18 — 18:33
89 Nick Robertson L +0.11 0.00 +0.07 +0.15 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 10:39
60 Joseph Woll G +0.06 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.06 60:41
25 Brandon Carlo D -0.06 0.00 +0.04 +0.15 -0.30 0.00 +0.05 — 16:24
26 Jacob Quillan C -0.10 0.00 0.00 -0.17 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 10:12
23 Matthew Knies L -0.12 0.00 +0.18 -0.45 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 20:01
28 Troy Stecher D -0.56 0.00 +0.12 -0.66 -0.15 0.00 +0.13 — 21:41
2 Simon Benoit D -0.67 0.00 0.00 -0.83 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 21:28

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.