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Colorado AvalancheCOL 4–1 Final Chicago BlackhawksCHI

Friday, March 20, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Colorado AvalancheCOL 202 4 49
Chicago BlackhawksCHI 010 1 20
Playoff odds, % Change
CHI -0.2
COL +0.0

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 20, 2026 7:56 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
13:19 COL Martin Necas (32) Valeri Nichushkin (25), Nathan MacKinnon (67) · snap xG 0.11 1–0 ▶
15:22 COL Brock Nelson (31)PP Cale Makar (50), Martin Necas (51) · tip-in xG 0.08 2–0 ▶
2nd Period
6:48 CHI Wyatt Kaiser (6) Ryan Greene (16), Sam Rinzel (10) · wrist xG 0.16 2–1 ▶
3rd Period
0:36 COL Nazem Kadri (14)PP Nathan MacKinnon (68), Martin Necas (52) · wrist xG 0.07 3–1 ▶
8:34 COL Valeri Nichushkin (15) Nathan MacKinnon (69) · snap xG 0.18 4–1 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

COL 82%Deserve to win18% CHI
COLCHI
4.48Expected goals2.26
4Goals (no shootout)1
3.89Expected goals, 5 on 51.80
87Shot attempts42
65Unblocked attempts35
49Shots on goal20

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
18:10 COL xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced CHI 1.28–0.18
In xG over 10 minutes, 8:30 to 18:30 of the 2nd; neither team scored

Shot map

COL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ CHI shoots
Cale Makar: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 0:50) Martin Necas: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 0:59) Brett Kulak: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:08) Sam Malinski: wrap-around, 6 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 1:29) Ryan Donato: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:48) Artyom Levshunov: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:26) Frank Nazar: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 4:16) Nicolas Roy: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 4:28) Nazem Kadri: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 4:55) Sam Rinzel: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:37) Jack Drury: tip-in, 23 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 6:50) Brent Burns: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:54) Joel Kiviranta: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 7:02) Jack Drury: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 7:05) Jack Drury: tip-in, 1 ft, xG 0.36 (P1 7:06) Cale Makar: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:21) Sam Malinski: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 8:25) Nazem Kadri: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 8:26) Valeri Nichushkin: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 9:08) Andre Burakovsky: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 11:05) Brock Nelson: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 11:22) Parker Kelly: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 12:13) Landon Slaggert: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 13:04) Frank Nazar: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 13:05) Nathan MacKinnon: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 14:16) Brent Burns: wrist, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 15:34) Nick Lardis: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 16:03) Frank Nazar: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 17:02) Ryan Donato: poke, 16 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 17:58) Brent Burns: snap, 61 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 18:34) Josh Manson: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 18:51) Brent Burns: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 19:34) Parker Kelly: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 19:35) Martin Necas: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 19:46) Alex Vlasic: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 0:49) Artyom Levshunov: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 0:51) Andre Burakovsky: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:08) Connor Bedard: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 1:14) Tyler Bertuzzi: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 1:56) Artyom Levshunov: wrist, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:09) Sam Rinzel: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:49) Sam Rinzel: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:58) Joel Kiviranta: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:42) Joel Kiviranta: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 4:47) Josh Manson: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:29) Brent Burns: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:35) Gavin Brindley: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.22 (P2 6:05) Alex Vlasic: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 6:19) Frank Nazar: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 6:30) Cale Makar: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:15) Nicolas Roy: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 8:53) Joel Kiviranta: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 9:03) Nathan MacKinnon: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 10:00) Brock Nelson: deflected, 27 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 11:54) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 13:12) Martin Necas: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.30 (P2 13:14) Jack Drury: tip-in, 23 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 13:28) Joel Kiviranta: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 13:48) Nazem Kadri: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:35) Teuvo Teravainen: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 15:39) Brock Nelson: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 16:59) Sam Malinski: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 17:21) Brock Nelson: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 18:06) Cale Makar: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 18:17) Cale Makar: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:21) Sam Malinski: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:44) Tyler Bertuzzi: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 19:51) Martin Necas: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 0:26) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 0:47) Wyatt Kaiser: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 1:21) Brett Kulak: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 1:49) Gavin Brindley: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 1:51) Gavin Brindley: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 1:51) Ryan Donato: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 3:06) Brock Nelson: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 5:22) Wyatt Kaiser: backhand, 171 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 5:23) Ilya Mikheyev: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 5:51) Parker Kelly: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 6:16) Teuvo Teravainen: wrist, 93 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 6:54) Nazem Kadri: deflected, 98 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 7:08) Cale Makar: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 9:13) Ryan Donato: wrist, 143 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 9:38) Frank Nazar: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 11:21) Brock Nelson: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 12:42) Devon Toews: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 14:18) Nicolas Roy: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 14:19) Artyom Levshunov: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 14:26) Teuvo Teravainen: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 14:33) Andre Burakovsky: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 14:51) Brent Burns: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 16:34) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 16:53) Ryan Donato: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:30) Parker Kelly: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 18:38) Jack Drury: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 19:03) Nick Lardis: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 19:23) Martin Necas: GOAL, snap, 23 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 13:19) Brock Nelson: GOAL, tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 15:22) Wyatt Kaiser: GOAL, wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 6:48) Nazem Kadri: GOAL, wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 0:36) Valeri Nichushkin: GOAL, snap, 25 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 8:34)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Colorado Avalanche

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
29 Nathan MacKinnon 033 +1 60.25 3022:12
88 Martin Necas 123 +1 60.65 1120:40
11 Brock Nelson 101 0 70.71 0117:54
91 Nazem Kadri 101 0 60.17 2017:37
43 Valeri Nichushkin 112 +1 30.26 0016:52
17 Parker Kelly 000 0 50.16 3014:08
10 Nicolas Roy 000 0 30.30 1113:02
18 Jack Drury 000 0 70.55 0012:58
54 Gavin Brindley 000 0 30.42 1012:29
22 Joel Kiviranta 000 0 60.39 1012:07
93 Zakhar Bardakov 000 0 00.00 0109:52
49 Ivan Ivan 000 0 00.00 1009:09
Defense
8 Cale Makar 011 0 100.12 0023:54
70 Sam Malinski 000 +1 80.26 1119:51
7 Devon Toews 000 0 20.03 2019:38
27 Brett Kulak 000 0 30.04 1018:10
84 Brent Burns 000 0 90.15 0017:50
42 Josh Manson 000 +1 30.03 2116:18
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Mackenzie Blackwood 20119 .950 2.26 +1.26

Chicago Blackhawks

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
20 Ryan Greene 011 +1 00.00 0019:42
91 Frank Nazar 000 -2 50.56 1319:04
98 Connor Bedard 000 +1 20.16 0018:38
86 Teuvo Teravainen 000 0 30.19 0217:13
59 Tyler Bertuzzi 000 -1 20.14 0116:25
95 Ilya Mikheyev 000 -1 10.05 0016:00
95 Andre Burakovsky 000 +1 30.30 0015:02
76 Nick Lardis 000 -1 20.09 2012:46
8 Ryan Donato 000 0 50.12 0111:32
84 Landon Slaggert 000 -1 10.08 2111:29
25 Dominic Toninato 000 0 00.00 1109:21
18 Sam Lafferty 000 0 00.00 2109:06
Defense
44 Wyatt Kaiser 101 0 40.24 1021:38
55 Artyom Levshunov 000 -1 60.17 4121:23
24 Matt Grzelcyk 000 0 00.00 1219:59
6 Sam Rinzel 011 0 60.05 1319:40
72 Alex Vlasic 000 -1 20.11 0419:11
38 Ethan Del Mastro 000 0 00.00 4114:26
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Arvid Soderblom 49445 .918 4.48 +0.48

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Colorado Avalanche

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
88 Martin Necas C +3.30 +1.85 +0.42 +1.00 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 20:40
29 Nathan MacKinnon C +2.64 +1.95 +0.16 +0.64 0.00 -0.03 -0.08 — 22:12
11 Brock Nelson C +1.92 +0.75 +0.46 +0.45 +0.15 +0.06 +0.05 — 17:54
18 Jack Drury C +1.67 0.00 +0.36 +1.25 0.00 +0.06 0.00 — 12:58
17 Parker Kelly C +1.63 0.00 +0.11 +1.53 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 14:08
13 Valeri Nichushkin R +1.59 +1.45 +0.17 -0.04 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 16:52
91 Nazem Kadri C +1.38 +0.75 +0.11 +0.53 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 17:37
84 Brent Burns D +1.31 0.00 +0.09 +1.27 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 17:50
8 Cale Makar D +1.26 +0.70 +0.08 +0.46 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 23:54
39 Mackenzie Blackwood G +1.26 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.26 59:19
94 Joel Kiviranta L +1.19 0.00 +0.25 +0.94 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:07
70 Sam Malinski D +1.15 0.00 +0.17 +0.91 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 19:51
27 Brett Kulak D +0.84 0.00 +0.03 +0.81 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 18:10
42 Josh Manson D +0.84 0.00 +0.02 +0.73 0.00 0.00 +0.09 — 16:18
10 Nicolas Roy C +0.75 0.00 +0.19 +0.54 0.00 +0.01 +0.01 — 13:02
7 Devon Toews D +0.73 0.00 +0.02 +0.72 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:38
93 Zakhar Bardakov C +0.47 0.00 0.00 +0.43 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 9:52
54 Gavin Brindley C +0.20 0.00 +0.27 -0.06 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:29
82 Ivan Ivan C +0.13 0.00 0.00 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 9:09

Chicago Blackhawks

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
6 Sam Rinzel D +1.00 +0.55 +0.03 +0.42 -0.15 0.00 +0.15 — 19:40
20 Ryan Greene C +0.98 +0.70 0.00 +0.34 0.00 -0.04 -0.02 — 19:42
28 Andre Burakovsky L +0.70 0.00 +0.19 +0.55 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 15:02
44 Wyatt Kaiser D +0.51 +0.75 +0.15 -0.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 21:38
40 Arvid Soderblom G +0.48 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.48 60:00
98 Connor Bedard C +0.31 0.00 +0.11 -0.11 +0.30 +0.01 0.00 — 18:38
24 Sam Lafferty C -0.11 0.00 0.00 -0.14 0.00 +0.02 +0.01 — 9:06
25 Dominic Toninato C -0.31 0.00 0.00 -0.22 -0.15 +0.01 +0.05 — 9:21
59 Tyler Bertuzzi L -0.70 0.00 +0.09 -0.83 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 16:25
91 Frank Nazar C -0.77 0.00 +0.37 -1.22 0.00 -0.06 +0.15 — 19:04
86 Teuvo Teravainen C -0.91 0.00 +0.13 -1.12 0.00 -0.01 +0.10 — 17:13
72 Alex Vlasic D -0.92 0.00 +0.07 -1.18 0.00 0.00 +0.20 — 19:11
84 Landon Slaggert L -0.92 0.00 +0.05 -1.02 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 11:29
76 Nick Lardis L -0.92 0.00 +0.06 -0.98 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:46
38 Ethan Del Mastro D -0.94 0.00 0.00 -0.99 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 14:26
8 Ryan Donato C -1.02 0.00 +0.08 -1.08 0.00 -0.03 +0.01 — 11:32
48 Matt Grzelcyk D -1.30 0.00 0.00 -1.34 0.00 0.00 +0.04 — 19:59
55 Artyom Levshunov D -1.38 0.00 +0.11 -1.24 -0.30 0.00 +0.05 — 21:23
95 Ilya Mikheyev R -1.67 0.00 +0.03 -1.71 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:00

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.