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Florida PanthersFLA 1–4 Final Calgary FlamesCGY

Friday, March 20, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Florida PanthersFLA 001 1 25
Calgary FlamesCGY 022 4 36
Playoff odds, % Change
FLA -0.1
CGY +0.0

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 20, 2026 8:58 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
7:44 CGY Joel Farabee (16) Blake Coleman (11) · wrist xG 0.03 0–1 ▶
10:10 CGY Victor Olofsson (12) Adam Klapka (10), Olli Maatta (6) · slap xG 0.14 0–2 ▶
3rd Period
4:17 FLA A.J. Greer (13) Donovan Sebrango (3), Tomas Nosek (1) · wrist xG 0.04 1–2 ▶
16:59 CGY Morgan Frost (16)PP Yegor Sharangovich (11), Zayne Parekh (3) · backhand xG 0.85 1–3 ▶
17:30 CGY Matt Coronato (16)PP Matvei Gridin (7), Blake Coleman (12) · wrist xG 0.17 1–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

FLA 18%Deserve to win82% CGY
FLACGY
1.85Expected goals3.76
1Goals (no shootout)4
1.35Expected goals, 5 on 51.32
51Shot attempts55
40Unblocked attempts46
25Shots on goal36

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
17:00 CGY xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced FLA 1.87–0.13
In xG over 10 minutes, 8:50 to 18:50 of the 3rd; goals 2–0

Shot map

FLA shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ CGY shoots
Mikael Backlund: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 0:46) Cole Reinhardt: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 2:50) Tomas Nosek: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 2:52) Matvei Gridin: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 3:08) Ryan Strome: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:53) Zayne Parekh: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 4:40) Zayne Parekh: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 4:48) Niko Mikkola: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 5:19) Morgan Frost: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 5:37) Luke Kunin: wrist, 138 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 6:26) Victor Olofsson: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 6:42) Matthew Tkachuk: wrist, 164 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 6:46) Carter Verhaeghe: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 7:08) Vinnie Hinostroza: backhand, 89 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 8:17) Carter Verhaeghe: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 9:51) Carter Verhaeghe: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 9:56) Morgan Frost: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 12:00) Matvei Gridin: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 12:35) Mikael Backlund: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 12:36) Olli Maatta: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 13:20) Zayne Parekh: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 15:26) Matt Coronato: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 16:03) Cole Reinhardt: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 16:41) Connor Zary: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:00) Matt Coronato: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 19:23) Hunter Brzustewicz: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:40) Dmitry Kulikov: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:07) Yegor Sharangovich: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 2:37) Joel Hanley: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:51) Carter Verhaeghe: wrap-around, 4 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 4:08) Sam Bennett: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:21) Nolan Foote: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 7:10) Zach Whitecloud: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 8:47) Dmitry Kulikov: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:04) Dmitry Kulikov: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:14) Matvei Gridin: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 10:26) Matt Coronato: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 11:14) Mike Benning: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 12:15) Mikael Backlund: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 12:32) Sam Bennett: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 13:11) Aaron Ekblad: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:10) Aaron Ekblad: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 14:24) Morgan Frost: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 15:02) Matvei Gridin: slap, 27 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 15:09) Blake Coleman: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 15:17) Blake Coleman: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 15:48) Evan Rodrigues: slap, 30 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 16:32) Matthew Tkachuk: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 17:50) Sam Bennett: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 18:32) Evan Rodrigues: tip-in, 25 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 18:41) Matthew Tkachuk: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 18:51) Jesper Boqvist: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 19:31) Matvei Gridin: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 0:12) Evan Rodrigues: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 1:31) Vinnie Hinostroza: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 3:16) Cole Reinhardt: backhand, 87 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 3:51) Tomas Nosek: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 4:07) Cole Reinhardt: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 4:09) Jesper Boqvist: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 4:26) Victor Olofsson: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 5:20) Victor Olofsson: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 5:34) Evan Rodrigues: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 7:31) Eetu Luostarinen: bat, 13 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 8:00) Mikael Backlund: wrist, 80 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 8:09) Matt Coronato: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 8:55) Mike Benning: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 9:46) Vinnie Hinostroza: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 10:01) Matthew Tkachuk: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 10:11) Niko Mikkola: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 10:12) Joel Farabee: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:30) Ryan Strome: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 10:55) Hunter Brzustewicz: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 12:23) Joel Farabee: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:51) Victor Olofsson: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 13:53) Victor Olofsson: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 15:54) Zayne Parekh: wrist, 93 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 16:56) Morgan Frost: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 16:58) Yegor Sharangovich: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 16:58) Victor Olofsson: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 17:54) Donovan Sebrango: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 18:15) Joel Farabee: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 18:44) Joel Farabee: GOAL, wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 7:44) Victor Olofsson: GOAL, slap, 31 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 10:10) A.J. Greer: GOAL, wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 4:17) Morgan Frost: GOAL, backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.85 (P3 16:59) Matt Coronato: GOAL, wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 17:30)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Florida Panthers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
9 Sam Bennett 000 -2 30.21 0017:13
17 Evan Rodrigues 000 0 60.18 1016:15
19 Matthew Tkachuk 000 -1 40.12 1015:40
23 Carter Verhaeghe 000 -1 60.22 0015:13
70 Jesper Boqvist 000 0 40.08 4114:38
92 Tomas Nosek 011 +1 20.23 2014:21
27 Eetu Luostarinen 000 0 10.07 1013:55
71 Luke Kunin 000 0 10.00 1013:36
18 A.J. Greer 101 0 20.04 4013:23
29 Cole Reinhardt 000 0 40.08 5013:16
18 Vinnie Hinostroza 000 0 30.06 0112:19
0 Nolan Foote 000 0 10.18 1009:42
Defense
3 Seth Jones 000 -2 10.00 0024:32
5 Aaron Ekblad 000 0 40.03 1221:54
7 Dmitry Kulikov 000 0 30.05 1119:22
20 Mike Benning 000 +1 30.20 0118:12
77 Niko Mikkola 000 -2 20.08 3117:01
73 Donovan Sebrango 011 +1 10.01 2016:52
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Daniil Tarasov 36432 .889 3.76 -0.24

Calgary Flames

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
92 Matvei Gridin 011 -1 60.38 0119:09
27 Matt Coronato 101 -1 60.49 0018:49
11 Mikael Backlund 000 +1 40.14 0217:58
16 Morgan Frost 101 -1 71.33 2017:56
20 Blake Coleman 022 +1 30.14 0017:39
22 Ryan Strome 000 0 20.04 0016:39
17 Yegor Sharangovich 011 0 20.23 0015:26
86 Joel Farabee 101 +1 40.12 0014:05
47 Connor Zary 000 0 10.01 3013:20
95 Victor Olofsson 101 +1 80.61 0012:57
43 Adam Klapka 011 +1 00.00 3110:32
76 Martin Pospisil 000 +1 10.00 5109:38
Defense
28 Zach Whitecloud 000 +1 20.02 3320:36
7 Kevin Bahl 000 0 10.00 0020:12
19 Zayne Parekh 011 0 40.14 1120:06
48 Hunter Brzustewicz 000 0 20.04 1217:31
3 Olli Maatta 011 +1 10.04 0016:59
44 Joel Hanley 000 0 10.03 0014:35
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Dustin Wolf 25124 .960 1.85 +0.85

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Florida Panthers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
6 Donovan Sebrango D +1.69 +0.70 +0.01 +0.83 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 16:52
20 Mike Benning D +0.90 0.00 +0.13 +0.76 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 18:12
92 Tomas Nosek L +0.68 +0.55 +0.15 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 14:21
23 Carter Verhaeghe C +0.47 0.00 +0.14 +0.32 0.00 -0.02 +0.02 — 15:13
19 Matthew Tkachuk L +0.32 0.00 +0.08 +0.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:40
71 Luke Kunin C +0.24 0.00 0.00 +0.27 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 13:36
24 Vinnie Hinostroza C +0.21 0.00 +0.04 +0.13 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 12:19
25 Nolan Foote L +0.19 0.00 +0.11 +0.22 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 9:42
9 Sam Bennett C +0.12 0.00 +0.14 +0.02 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 17:13
10 A.J. Greer L +0.10 +0.75 +0.03 -0.15 -0.53 -0.01 0.00 — 13:23
5 Aaron Ekblad D -0.13 0.00 +0.02 -0.25 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 21:54
70 Jesper Boqvist C -0.13 0.00 +0.05 -0.26 0.00 +0.01 +0.07 — 14:38
7 Dmitry Kulikov D -0.14 0.00 +0.03 -0.21 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 19:22
40 Daniil Tarasov G -0.24 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.24 60:00
29 Cole Reinhardt L -0.27 0.00 +0.05 -0.30 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:16
27 Eetu Luostarinen C -0.31 0.00 +0.04 -0.36 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 13:55
17 Evan Rodrigues C -0.40 0.00 +0.12 -0.48 0.00 -0.04 0.00 — 16:15
77 Niko Mikkola D -0.69 0.00 +0.05 -0.64 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 17:01
3 Seth Jones D -0.75 0.00 0.00 -0.73 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 24:32

Calgary Flames

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
16 Morgan Frost C +1.79 +0.75 +0.86 +0.02 +0.15 +0.04 -0.04 — 17:56
20 Blake Coleman L +1.47 +1.25 +0.09 +0.15 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:39
27 Matt Coronato R +1.15 +0.75 +0.32 +0.04 0.00 +0.02 +0.02 — 18:49
95 Victor Olofsson L +1.15 +0.75 +0.40 +0.02 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:57
92 Matvei Gridin R +1.06 +0.70 +0.25 +0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 19:09
32 Dustin Wolf G +0.85 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.85 59:53
19 Zayne Parekh D +0.83 +0.55 +0.09 +0.01 +0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 20:06
3 Olli Maatta D +0.79 +0.55 +0.03 +0.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:59
17 Yegor Sharangovich C +0.78 +0.70 +0.15 -0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:26
43 Adam Klapka R +0.68 +0.70 0.00 -0.07 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 10:32
47 Connor Zary C +0.63 0.00 +0.01 +0.15 +0.53 -0.01 -0.04 — 13:20
86 Joel Farabee L +0.60 +0.75 +0.08 -0.08 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 14:05
28 Zach Whitecloud D +0.44 0.00 +0.01 +0.32 0.00 0.00 +0.11 — 20:36
11 Mikael Backlund C +0.43 0.00 +0.09 +0.24 0.00 +0.02 +0.08 — 17:58
44 Joel Hanley D +0.12 0.00 +0.02 +0.14 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 14:35
22 Ryan Strome C +0.02 0.00 +0.03 -0.17 +0.15 -0.01 +0.02 — 16:39
7 Kevin Bahl D -0.04 0.00 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 20:12
76 Martin Pospisil C -0.10 0.00 0.00 +0.02 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 9:38
48 Hunter Brzustewicz D -0.24 0.00 +0.02 -0.41 0.00 0.00 +0.14 — 17:31

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.