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Vegas Golden KnightsVGK 1–4 Final Nashville PredatorsNSH

Saturday, March 21, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Vegas Golden KnightsVGK 010 1 40
Nashville PredatorsNSH 130 4 20
Playoff odds, % Change
NSH +8.4
VGK -7.4

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 21, 2026 11:22 AM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
0:40 NSH Steven Stamkos (32) Ryan O'Reilly (40) · snap xG 0.03 0–1 ▶
2nd Period
1:24 NSH Steven Stamkos (33)PP Filip Forsberg (29), Jonathan Marchessault (13) · snap xG 0.12 0–2 ▶
11:56 NSH Tyson Jost (7)SH Brady Skjei (20) · wrist xG 0.26 0–3 ▶
13:10 VGK Shea Theodore (8)PP Ivan Barbashev (29), Brett Howden (7) · wrist xG 0.03 1–3 ▶
14:53 NSH Ryan O'Reilly (24)PP Steven Stamkos (22), Roman Josi (35) · deflected xG 0.18 1–4 ▶
3rd Period
No scoring

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

VGK 61%Deserve to win39% NSH
VGKNSH
3.69Expected goals3.10
1Goals (no shootout)4
2.42Expected goals, 5 on 51.52
77Shot attempts40
59Unblocked attempts31
40Shots on goal20

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
10:00 VGK xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced NSH 1.46–0.00
In xG over 10 minutes, 0:40 to 10:40 of the 1st; neither team scored
17:18 NSH Goalie Goalie · Annunen +2.0 goals saved
0 goals on 2.02 xG, 19 shots on goal
2nd Period
14:53 VGK Goalie Goalie · Schmid −2.3 goals saved
4 goals on 1.67 xG, 13 shots on goal
19:00 NSH xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced VGK 1.30–0.21
In xG over 10 minutes, 9:00 to 19:00 of the 2nd; goals 2–1
3rd Period
15:12 VGK Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Schmid, down 4–1
With 4:48 left

Shot map

VGK shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ NSH shoots
Shea Theodore: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 1:12) Mitch Marner: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 1:19) Mitch Marner: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.26 (P1 1:21) Rasmus Andersson: snap, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:01) Noah Hanifin: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:21) Brett Howden: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 4:57) Jeremy Lauzon: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 6:26) Brayden McNabb: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 6:32) Mark Stone: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 6:51) Jack Eichel: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 6:53) Ivan Barbashev: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 7:08) Rasmus Andersson: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:02) Cole Smith: snap, 5 ft, xG 0.24 (P1 8:05) Ben Hutton: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:35) Colton Sissons: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:44) Ben Hutton: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 9:02) Ivan Barbashev: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 9:14) Tomas Hertl: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 9:56) Shea Theodore: snap, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:45) Cole Smith: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 11:48) Luke Evangelista: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 12:30) Jeremy Lauzon: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 12:47) Mitch Marner: backhand, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:49) Cole Smith: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 15:26) Tomas Hertl: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 16:24) Mark Stone: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 17:00) Pavel Dorofeyev: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 17:01) Jack Eichel: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 17:18) Ivan Barbashev: between-legs, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 18:02) Ben Hutton: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 18:08) Luke Evangelista: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 19:36) Tyson Jost: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 19:39) Ben Hutton: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 0:29) Jonathan Marchessault: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 1:07) Ryan O'Reilly: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 2:44) Ryan O'Reilly: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.35 (P2 2:46) Ryan Ufko: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 2:59) Brady Skjei: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:26) Ivan Barbashev: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 7:03) Nic Dowd: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 8:03) Ryan O'Reilly: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 9:02) Roman Josi: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 9:24) Jeremy Lauzon: backhand, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:34) Ivan Barbashev: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:19) Fedor Svechkov: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:36) Jack Eichel: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 12:31) Filip Forsberg: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 14:09) Roman Josi: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 14:35) Tomas Hertl: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:10) Brayden McNabb: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:23) Brayden McNabb: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 15:56) Braeden Bowman: wrist, 74 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 16:54) Ryan O'Reilly: backhand, 4 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 18:18) Ryan O'Reilly: poke, 6 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 18:18) Erik Haula: slap, 24 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 18:56) Luke Evangelista: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 18:57) Mitch Marner: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 19:22) Cole Smith: wrist, 87 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 0:05) Pavel Dorofeyev: slap, 24 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 1:46) Tyson Jost: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 1:58) Pavel Dorofeyev: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 2:48) Mark Stone: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 3:22) Jack Eichel: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 3:42) Ivan Barbashev: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 4:23) Rasmus Andersson: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 4:45) Nicolas Hague: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:01) Brayden McNabb: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:51) Ryan Ufko: slap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:05) Shea Theodore: slap, 87 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 7:13) Jonathan Marchessault: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 7:34) Filip Forsberg: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 8:34) Jack Eichel: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 10:13) Luke Evangelista: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 10:47) Ivan Barbashev: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 12:52) Luke Evangelista: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.35 (P3 13:39) Fedor Svechkov: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 14:20) Tyson Jost: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 14:52) Keegan Kolesar: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 15:09) Tomas Hertl: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 16:59) Shea Theodore: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 17:09) Steven Stamkos: wrist, 140 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 18:09) Brett Howden: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 18:16) Tomas Hertl: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 19:04) Pavel Dorofeyev: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 19:39) Jack Eichel: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 19:48) Steven Stamkos: GOAL, snap, 36 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 0:40) Steven Stamkos: GOAL, snap, 25 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 1:24) Tyson Jost: GOAL, wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.26 (P2 11:56) Shea Theodore: GOAL, wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 13:10) Ryan O'Reilly: GOAL, deflected, 7 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 14:53)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Vegas Golden Knights

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
93 Mitch Marner 000 -1 50.43 0021:54
9 Jack Eichel 000 -2 70.42 0221:43
16 Pavel Dorofeyev 000 -1 60.25 1020:49
48 Tomas Hertl 000 -1 60.54 0020:45
61 Mark Stone 000 -2 30.39 1020:21
49 Ivan Barbashev 011 -1 70.56 0014:59
22 Cole Smith 000 0 50.42 3014:38
55 Keegan Kolesar 000 0 10.02 1013:00
15 Colton Sissons 000 0 10.01 2112:22
21 Brett Howden 011 0 20.09 0012:14
26 Nic Dowd 000 0 10.13 1011:20
42 Braeden Bowman 000 0 20.00 0010:14
Defense
27 Shea Theodore 101 -1 80.12 0019:45
15 Noah Hanifin 000 0 10.01 0019:25
4 Rasmus Andersson 000 0 50.07 0318:38
3 Brayden McNabb 000 -1 50.10 1118:34
5 Jeremy Lauzon 000 0 30.04 3115:20
17 Ben Hutton 000 0 90.09 0012:51
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Akira Schmid 20416 .800 3.02 -0.98

Nashville Predators

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
9 Filip Forsberg 011 0 20.29 2020:19
90 Ryan O'Reilly 112 +1 61.04 0019:06
81 Jonathan Marchessault 000 0 20.15 0019:05
91 Steven Stamkos 213 +1 50.23 0017:39
56 Erik Haula 011 +1 20.20 0016:29
68 Zachary L'Heureux 000 0 00.00 2215:15
77 Luke Evangelista 000 +1 50.56 0114:39
17 Tyson Jost 101 +1 60.37 1014:20
9 Fedor Svechkov 000 0 20.08 0013:18
71 Matthew Wood 000 0 00.00 1010:45
89 Ozzy Wiesblatt 000 0 00.00 0008:16
49 Reid Schaefer 000 0 00.00 3207:29
Defense
41 Nicolas Hague 000 0 20.01 1125:08
59 Roman Josi 011 +1 30.08 1024:18
76 Brady Skjei 011 +2 10.02 2223:08
48 Nick Perbix 000 +1 10.00 0419:05
72 Justin Barron 000 0 00.00 0113:15
12 Ryan Ufko 000 0 30.06 0210:55
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Justus Annunen 40139 .975 3.69 +2.69

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Vegas Golden Knights

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
49 Ivan Barbashev L +1.77 +0.70 +0.36 +0.58 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 14:59
27 Shea Theodore D +1.07 +0.75 +0.08 +0.58 -0.30 0.00 -0.04 — 19:45
9 Jack Eichel C +1.07 0.00 +0.27 +0.56 +0.15 +0.03 +0.06 — 21:43
21 Brett Howden C +0.81 +0.55 +0.06 +0.27 -0.05 -0.02 0.00 — 12:14
3 Brayden McNabb D +0.74 0.00 +0.06 +0.48 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 18:34
48 Tomas Hertl C +0.61 0.00 +0.35 +0.19 0.00 +0.05 +0.02 — 20:45
61 Mark Stone R +0.50 0.00 +0.25 +0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 20:21
93 Mitch Marner R +0.49 0.00 +0.28 +0.28 0.00 -0.01 -0.06 — 21:54
15 Noah Hanifin D +0.42 0.00 +0.01 +0.43 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 19:25
42 Braeden Bowman R +0.41 0.00 0.00 +0.41 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:14
4 Rasmus Andersson D +0.36 0.00 +0.05 +0.16 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 18:38
22 Cole Smith R +0.33 0.00 +0.27 +0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:38
16 Pavel Dorofeyev R +0.32 0.00 +0.16 +0.17 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 20:49
17 Ben Hutton D +0.29 0.00 +0.06 +0.29 -0.05 0.00 0.00 — 12:51
10 Colton Sissons C +0.25 0.00 +0.01 +0.16 0.00 +0.03 +0.05 — 12:22
55 Keegan Kolesar R -0.06 0.00 +0.01 -0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:00
5 Jeremy Lauzon D -0.08 0.00 +0.02 -0.27 +0.15 0.00 +0.01 — 15:20
26 Nic Dowd C -0.35 0.00 +0.08 -0.27 -0.20 +0.03 0.00 — 11:20
40 Akira Schmid G -0.98 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.98 55:12

Nashville Predators

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
91 Steven Stamkos C +2.91 +2.20 +0.15 +0.75 -0.15 -0.02 -0.02 — 17:39
29 Justus Annunen G +2.69 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +2.69 60:00
90 Ryan O'Reilly C +2.43 +1.45 +0.67 +0.19 +0.15 -0.02 -0.02 — 19:06
77 Luke Evangelista R +1.20 0.00 +0.36 +0.79 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 14:39
17 Tyson Jost C +0.88 +0.75 +0.24 -0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:20
48 Nick Perbix D +0.59 0.00 0.00 +0.36 +0.05 0.00 +0.18 — 19:05
41 Nicolas Hague D +0.16 0.00 +0.01 +0.10 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 25:08
76 Brady Skjei D +0.06 +0.70 +0.01 -0.81 0.00 0.00 +0.16 — 23:08
9 Filip Forsberg L +0.05 +0.70 +0.19 -0.80 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 20:19
85 Ryan Ufko D +0.04 0.00 +0.04 -0.07 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 10:55
40 Fedor Svechkov C -0.04 0.00 +0.05 -0.23 +0.15 -0.03 +0.02 — 13:18
81 Jonathan Marchessault R -0.09 +0.55 +0.10 -0.72 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 19:05
68 Zachary L'Heureux L -0.22 0.00 0.00 -0.30 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 15:15
59 Roman Josi D -0.31 +0.55 +0.05 -0.89 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 24:18
56 Erik Haula L -0.34 0.00 +0.13 -0.31 -0.15 +0.03 -0.04 — 16:29
89 Ozzy Wiesblatt C -0.37 0.00 0.00 -0.47 +0.10 0.00 0.00 — 8:16
49 Reid Schaefer L -0.49 0.00 0.00 -0.59 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 7:29
20 Justin Barron D -0.55 0.00 0.00 -0.60 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 13:15
71 Matthew Wood R -0.68 0.00 0.00 -0.48 -0.15 -0.05 0.00 — 10:45

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.