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Tampa Bay LightningTBL 3–4 Final/OT Calgary FlamesCGY

Sunday, March 22, 2026

Final/OT 1st2nd3rdOT T SOG
Tampa Bay LightningTBL 1110 3 35
Calgary FlamesCGY 2101 4 29
Playoff odds, % Change
TBL -0.3
CGY +0.0

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 22, 2026 7:11 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
7:25 TBL Ryan McDonagh (6) Gage Goncalves (16) · wrist xG 0.05 1–0 ▶
16:25 CGY Victor Olofsson (13) Yegor Sharangovich (12), Zach Whitecloud (10) · wrist xG 0.09 1–1 ▶
16:52 CGY Morgan Frost (17) Matt Coronato (18) · snap xG 0.16 1–2 ▶
2nd Period
8:28 CGY Mikael Backlund (16) Blake Coleman (13), Hunter Brzustewicz (2) · slap xG 0.07 1–3 ▶
11:47 TBL Darren Raddysh (19) Nikita Kucherov (79), J.J. Moser (20) · slap xG 0.09 2–3 ▶
3rd Period
15:40 TBL Pontus Holmberg (10) Yanni Gourde (17) · snap xG 0.20 3–3 ▶
Overtime
0:26 CGY Ryan Strome (5) Matvei Gridin (8), Kevin Bahl (13) · snap xG 0.21 3–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TBL 52%Deserve to win48% CGY
TBLCGY
2.71Expected goals2.60
3Goals (no shootout)4
2.64Expected goals, 5 on 52.39
64Shot attempts50
48Unblocked attempts46
35Shots on goal29

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
19:20 CGY Shortened bench Shortened bench · 2 forwards sat
Gross and Klapka: no shift after 9:29 of the 3rd
19:20 CGY No shift No shift · Pospisil, 10:04 on the bench
No shift from 9:18 to 19:22 of the 3rd; 12 shifts (10:15) before that

Shot map

TBL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ CGY shoots
Zemgus Girgensons: tip-in, 24 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 0:21) Zemgus Girgensons: backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 0:23) Matvei Gridin: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 2:59) Pontus Holmberg: wrist, 78 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 3:07) Yegor Sharangovich: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 3:54) Yegor Sharangovich: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 3:59) Victor Olofsson: tip-in, 25 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 4:15) Olli Maatta: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:49) Jake Guentzel: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:10) Brayden Point: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 7:21) Anthony Cirelli: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 7:44) Nick Paul: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:22) Ryan McDonagh: snap, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:43) Pontus Holmberg: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 9:16) Kevin Bahl: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 9:36) Brayden Point: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 10:21) Adam Klapka: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:49) Brayden Point: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 11:58) Morgan Frost: wrist, 70 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 15:33) Zach Whitecloud: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 15:41) Joel Hanley: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 16:11) Yegor Sharangovich: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 16:17) Zach Whitecloud: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 17:03) Joel Hanley: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 17:11) Olli Maatta: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 18:17) Olli Maatta: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 18:31) Martin Pospisil: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 18:59) Yanni Gourde: backhand, 35 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:17) Brandon Hagel: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 19:55) Nick Paul: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 1:04) Mikael Backlund: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 1:23) Darren Raddysh: slap, 63 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:07) Anthony Cirelli: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 2:08) Darren Raddysh: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:13) Emil Lilleberg: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:34) Brayden Point: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 3:32) Zach Whitecloud: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:14) Matvei Gridin: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 4:38) Zayne Parekh: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 4:52) Yegor Sharangovich: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 6:01) Brandon Hagel: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 6:20) Morgan Frost: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 7:24) Darren Raddysh: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 7:38) Darren Raddysh: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 8:02) Darren Raddysh: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 8:13) Oliver Bjorkstrand: wrap-around, 8 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:12) Gage Goncalves: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 9:25) Zach Whitecloud: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 10:31) Charle-Edouard D'Astous: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:02) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:32) Darren Raddysh: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 11:40) Brayden Point: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 11:41) Charle-Edouard D'Astous: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 12:50) Matt Coronato: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 13:49) Matt Coronato: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 14:01) Blake Coleman: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 15:32) Blake Coleman: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 16:03) Mikael Backlund: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 16:05) Morgan Frost: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 17:09) Joel Hanley: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 18:25) Charle-Edouard D'Astous: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:04) Jake Guentzel: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.36 (P2 19:07) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:33) Jake Guentzel: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 0:26) Anthony Cirelli: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 1:31) Emil Lilleberg: snap, 12 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 1:32) Matt Coronato: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:23) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 4:38) Nikita Kucherov: poke, 4 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 4:39) Ryan Strome: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 4:57) Matt Coronato: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:04) Matt Coronato: bat, 17 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 7:28) Matt Coronato: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 7:37) Matt Coronato: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 7:40) Anthony Cirelli: deflected, 10 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 8:32) Nick Paul: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 8:47) Victor Olofsson: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 9:46) Zemgus Girgensons: wrap-around, 6 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 10:15) Yanni Gourde: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 10:19) Matvei Gridin: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 12:13) Brayden Point: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 12:35) Mikael Backlund: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:44) Matt Coronato: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 13:04) Blake Coleman: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 14:04) J.J. Moser: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 14:55) Nikita Kucherov: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 15:02) Kevin Bahl: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 18:55) Ryan McDonagh: GOAL, wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 7:25) Victor Olofsson: GOAL, wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 16:25) Morgan Frost: GOAL, snap, 15 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 16:52) Mikael Backlund: GOAL, slap, 38 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 8:28) Darren Raddysh: GOAL, slap, 37 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 11:47) Pontus Holmberg: GOAL, snap, 14 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 15:40) Ryan Strome: GOAL, snap, 17 ft, xG 0.21 (OT 0:26)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Tampa Bay Lightning

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
86 Nikita Kucherov 011 +1 70.38 0020:57
59 Jake Guentzel 000 +1 40.43 1119:34
38 Brandon Hagel 000 -2 40.18 0019:13
71 Anthony Cirelli 000 -2 40.18 1017:56
21 Brayden Point 000 +1 80.41 0017:22
37 Yanni Gourde 011 +1 30.03 0015:38
29 Pontus Holmberg 101 +1 40.22 1014:40
28 Zemgus Girgensons 000 +1 30.25 2014:34
93 Gage Goncalves 011 -1 20.08 0013:53
90 Corey Perry 000 -1 00.00 1010:21
20 Nick Paul 000 -1 30.10 2010:18
28 Oliver Bjorkstrand 000 -1 10.02 2009:55
Defense
43 Darren Raddysh 101 -1 90.26 0024:39
90 J.J. Moser 011 -2 20.03 0223:08
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous 000 0 40.06 1019:19
78 Emil Lilleberg 000 0 20.05 1018:23
27 Ryan McDonagh 101 +1 20.05 1016:11
81 Erik Cernak 000 +1 20.00 3116:04
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jonas Johansson 29425 .862 2.60 -1.40

Calgary Flames

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
22 Ryan Strome 101 +1 20.40 0018:49
11 Mikael Backlund 101 -1 40.19 0118:44
20 Blake Coleman 011 -1 40.24 1018:01
86 Joel Farabee 000 -1 00.00 2117:47
17 Yegor Sharangovich 011 0 40.26 0017:46
95 Victor Olofsson 101 0 30.16 0015:16
27 Matt Coronato 011 +1 80.29 0014:54
16 Morgan Frost 101 +1 40.38 1014:21
92 Matvei Gridin 011 +2 30.23 0013:50
76 Martin Pospisil 000 0 10.01 4010:34
43 Adam Klapka 000 0 10.01 7010:20
39 Tyson Gross 000 0 00.00 0008:07
Defense
3 Olli Maatta 000 0 30.16 0623:55
28 Zach Whitecloud 011 +1 60.07 3423:03
7 Kevin Bahl 011 +2 20.05 4022:46
48 Hunter Brzustewicz 011 +1 00.00 1120:20
44 Joel Hanley 000 -2 30.12 0215:36
19 Zayne Parekh 000 -1 20.03 0115:09
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Devin Cooley 35332 .914 2.71 -0.29

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
86 Nikita Kucherov R +1.48 +0.70 +0.25 +0.55 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 20:57
29 Pontus Holmberg R +1.24 +0.75 +0.14 +0.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:40
43 Darren Raddysh D +0.89 +0.75 +0.17 -0.04 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 24:39
27 Ryan McDonagh D +0.85 +0.75 +0.03 +0.15 0.00 0.00 -0.08 — 16:11
21 Brayden Point C +0.82 0.00 +0.27 +0.54 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 17:22
37 Yanni Gourde C +0.74 +0.70 +0.02 +0.05 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:38
59 Jake Guentzel C +0.65 0.00 +0.28 +0.32 0.00 -0.02 +0.07 — 19:34
71 Anthony Cirelli C +0.58 0.00 +0.11 +0.29 +0.15 +0.01 +0.02 — 17:56
93 Gage Goncalves C +0.51 +0.70 +0.05 -0.22 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:53
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D +0.47 0.00 +0.04 +0.45 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 19:19
38 Brandon Hagel L +0.43 0.00 +0.12 +0.33 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 19:13
28 Zemgus Girgensons C +0.34 0.00 +0.16 +0.18 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 14:34
90 J.J. Moser D +0.30 +0.55 +0.02 -0.32 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 23:08
81 Erik Cernak D +0.22 0.00 0.00 +0.17 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 16:04
78 Emil Lilleberg D +0.14 0.00 +0.04 +0.15 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 18:23
20 Nick Paul L -0.43 0.00 +0.06 -0.44 0.00 -0.03 -0.02 — 10:18
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R -0.55 0.00 +0.01 -0.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:55
10 Corey Perry R -0.59 0.00 0.00 -0.57 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 10:21
31 Jonas Johansson G -1.40 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.40 59:39

Calgary Flames

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
16 Morgan Frost C +1.72 +0.75 +0.25 +0.73 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 14:21
27 Matt Coronato R +1.55 +0.70 +0.19 +0.65 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 14:54
92 Matvei Gridin R +1.47 +0.70 +0.15 +0.65 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 13:50
17 Yegor Sharangovich C +0.93 +0.70 +0.17 +0.07 0.00 +0.03 -0.04 — 17:46
48 Hunter Brzustewicz D +0.75 +0.55 0.00 +0.15 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 20:20
22 Ryan Strome C +0.75 +0.75 +0.26 -0.23 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 18:49
28 Zach Whitecloud D +0.74 +0.55 +0.05 -0.03 0.00 0.00 +0.18 — 23:03
95 Victor Olofsson L +0.71 +0.75 +0.11 -0.09 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 15:16
7 Kevin Bahl D +0.55 +0.55 +0.03 +0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 22:46
11 Mikael Backlund C +0.42 +0.75 +0.13 -0.51 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 18:44
19 Zayne Parekh D +0.23 0.00 +0.02 +0.21 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 15:09
20 Blake Coleman L +0.19 +0.70 +0.15 -0.62 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 18:01
3 Olli Maatta D -0.08 0.00 +0.10 -0.47 0.00 0.00 +0.28 — 23:55
43 Adam Klapka R -0.16 0.00 +0.01 -0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:20
44 Joel Hanley D -0.22 0.00 +0.07 -0.41 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 15:36
1 Devin Cooley G -0.29 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.29 60:26
76 Martin Pospisil C -0.38 0.00 0.00 -0.37 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 10:34
39 Tyson Gross C -0.40 0.00 0.00 -0.26 -0.15 +0.01 0.00 — 8:07
86 Joel Farabee L -0.63 0.00 0.00 -0.66 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 17:47

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.