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Ottawa SenatorsOTT 3–2 Final Detroit Red WingsDET

Tuesday, March 24, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Ottawa SenatorsOTT 120 3 21
Detroit Red WingsDET 011 2 35
Playoff odds, % Change
DET -11.9
OTT +11.7

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 24, 2026 6:43 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
17:15 OTT Brady Tkachuk (20)PP Tim Stützle (41), Carter Yakemchuk (1) · tip-in xG 0.12 1–0 ▶
2nd Period
9:28 OTT Carter Yakemchuk (1) Artem Zub (21) · snap xG 0.10 2–0 ▶
11:05 OTT Lars Eller (4) Brady Tkachuk (29) · snap xG 0.14 3–0 ▶
14:50 DET Dominik Shine (3) Simon Edvinsson (13), Moritz Seider (40) · tip-in xG 0.07 3–1 ▶
3rd Period
4:13 DET Dylan Larkin (29)PP Alex DeBrincat (39), Lucas Raymond (47) · snap xG 0.21 3–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

OTT 45%Deserve to win55% DET
OTTDET
2.42Expected goals2.71
3Goals (no shootout)2
2.14Expected goals, 5 on 51.54
48Shot attempts63
32Unblocked attempts51
21Shots on goal35

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
11:50 OTT No shift No shift · Donovan, 17:09 on the bench
No shift after 17:51 of the 2nd; 7 shifts (4:42) before that

Shot map

OTT shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ DET shoots
Jordan Spence: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:11) Simon Edvinsson: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:08) Lucas Raymond: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 3:19) Simon Edvinsson: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 3:30) Ridly Greig: backhand, 30 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:55) Mason Appleton: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:58) Nikolas Matinpalo: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 6:23) Drake Batherson: tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 6:44) Tim Stützle: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 6:48) Brady Tkachuk: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 7:45) Emmitt Finnie: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 10:44) Justin Faulk: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 11:37) Lucas Raymond: snap, 94 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 12:22) Albert Johansson: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:50) Simon Edvinsson: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:38) Alex DeBrincat: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 14:22) Moritz Seider: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:28) Alex DeBrincat: slap, 24 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 14:48) Dylan Larkin: slap, 23 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 15:00) Ridly Greig: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 15:56) Justin Faulk: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 16:09) James van Riemsdyk: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 16:20) Lucas Raymond: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 17:33) David Perron: backhand, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:58) Carter Yakemchuk: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:14) Dylan Larkin: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:14) Alex DeBrincat: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:31) Moritz Seider: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:35) Ben Chiarot: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 5:13) James van Riemsdyk: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 5:14) Jorian Donovan: snap, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:40) Warren Foegele: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 5:46) Moritz Seider: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 6:14) Moritz Seider: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 6:34) Alex DeBrincat: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 7:39) Tim Stützle: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 7:54) Moritz Seider: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:12) Marco Kasper: wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.28 (P2 8:14) Marco Kasper: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 8:20) Artem Zub: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:15) Drake Batherson: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:04) Patrick Kane: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 10:20) Nick Cousins: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:02) Jordan Spence: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:22) Ridly Greig: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 16:32) Ridly Greig: deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 16:33) Dylan Cozens: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 16:39) Dylan Larkin: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 18:34) Lucas Raymond: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 18:55) Dylan Cozens: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 0:19) Tyler Kleven: slap, 92 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 2:08) Moritz Seider: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 3:55) Nikolas Matinpalo: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 5:00) Carter Yakemchuk: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:04) Moritz Seider: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:32) Simon Edvinsson: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:05) Michael Amadio: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 7:45) Brady Tkachuk: backhand, 35 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 8:09) Dylan Larkin: snap, 70 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 8:16) Patrick Kane: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 8:39) Andrew Copp: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 8:56) Fabian Zetterlund: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 9:48) Shane Pinto: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:29) Emmitt Finnie: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 12:02) Justin Faulk: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 12:41) Drake Batherson: deflected, 8 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 13:07) Moritz Seider: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 13:42) Tyler Kleven: wrist, 179 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 14:17) James van Riemsdyk: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 15:38) James van Riemsdyk: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 15:39) Dylan Larkin: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 17:00) Alex DeBrincat: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 17:05) Tim Stützle: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 17:48) Moritz Seider: wrist, 70 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 18:49) Dylan Larkin: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 18:59) Patrick Kane: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 19:48) Dylan Larkin: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 19:49) David Perron: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 19:53) Brady Tkachuk: GOAL, tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 17:15) Carter Yakemchuk: GOAL, snap, 35 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 9:28) Lars Eller: GOAL, snap, 27 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 11:05) Dominik Shine: GOAL, tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 14:50) Dylan Larkin: GOAL, snap, 13 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 4:13)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Ottawa Senators

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
12 Shane Pinto 000 +1 20.01 0119:06
22 Michael Amadio 000 0 20.18 0118:57
71 Ridly Greig 000 +1 50.46 0118:45
18 Tim Stützle 011 -1 40.37 3117:33
8 Brady Tkachuk 112 +1 40.24 3015:48
24 Dylan Cozens 000 0 30.13 3015:13
19 Drake Batherson 000 -1 40.34 2013:41
28 Claude Giroux 000 0 10.00 0013:23
21 Nick Cousins 000 +1 30.01 4112:20
20 Lars Eller 101 +1 10.14 2010:23
20 Fabian Zetterlund 000 0 10.04 2010:04
37 Warren Foegele 000 0 20.20 0010:03
Defense
43 Tyler Kleven 000 0 40.01 3028:11
10 Jordan Spence 000 -1 30.01 1126:24
2 Artem Zub 011 +1 10.02 0125:10
33 Nikolas Matinpalo 000 0 30.12 3019:57
26 Carter Yakemchuk 112 +2 30.13 0212:46
56 Jorian Donovan 000 0 20.01 0004:42
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Linus Ullmark 35233 .943 2.71 +0.71

Detroit Red Wings

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
71 Dylan Larkin 101 -1 90.61 1022:38
23 Lucas Raymond 011 -1 40.14 2022:04
93 Alex DeBrincat 011 0 50.39 1121:19
18 Andrew Copp 000 0 20.09 0019:50
88 Patrick Kane 000 0 50.23 0019:41
58 Emmitt Finnie 000 -1 20.14 0017:12
37 J.T. Compher 000 -1 00.00 0014:51
16 David Perron 000 -1 30.05 1011:40
92 Marco Kasper 000 0 20.31 1011:32
22 Mason Appleton 000 0 10.02 1011:16
21 James van Riemsdyk 000 +1 40.26 0010:28
65 Dominik Shine 101 +1 20.07 0005:17
Defense
53 Moritz Seider 011 +1 130.18 2228:38
72 Justin Faulk 000 -1 30.09 0221:53
77 Simon Edvinsson 011 +1 60.07 3321:32
8 Ben Chiarot 000 -1 10.05 1318:43
20 Albert Johansson 000 -1 10.01 0110:52
25 Jacob Bernard-Docker 000 -1 00.00 0209:39
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
John Gibson 21318 .857 2.42 -0.58

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Ottawa Senators

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
7 Brady Tkachuk L +2.63 +1.45 +0.15 +1.06 0.00 +0.01 -0.04 — 15:48
58 Carter Yakemchuk D +2.32 +1.30 +0.08 +0.85 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 12:46
18 Tim Stützle C +1.11 +0.70 +0.24 +0.12 0.00 +0.02 +0.03 — 17:33
71 Ridly Greig C +1.06 0.00 +0.30 +0.70 0.00 -0.01 +0.07 — 18:45
2 Artem Zub D +1.05 +0.70 +0.01 +0.28 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 25:10
89 Lars Eller C +1.00 +0.75 +0.09 +0.15 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 10:23
35 Linus Ullmark G +0.71 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.71 60:00
24 Dylan Cozens C +0.69 0.00 +0.08 +0.61 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:13
19 Drake Batherson R +0.35 0.00 +0.22 +0.10 0.00 +0.01 +0.02 — 13:41
22 Michael Amadio R +0.28 0.00 +0.12 +0.14 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 18:57
43 Tyler Kleven D +0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.31 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 28:11
28 Claude Giroux R +0.21 0.00 0.00 +0.20 0.00 +0.03 -0.02 — 13:23
56 Jorian Donovan D +0.10 0.00 +0.01 +0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 4:42
21 Nick Cousins C +0.06 0.00 +0.01 +0.04 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 12:20
33 Nikolas Matinpalo D +0.05 0.00 +0.08 +0.17 -0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 19:57
12 Shane Pinto C +0.03 0.00 +0.01 -0.03 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 19:06
10 Jordan Spence D -0.07 0.00 +0.01 +0.02 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 26:24
37 Warren Foegele L -0.25 0.00 +0.13 -0.39 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 10:03
20 Fabian Zetterlund L -0.34 0.00 +0.02 -0.35 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 10:04

Detroit Red Wings

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
53 Moritz Seider D +1.24 +0.55 +0.11 +0.56 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 28:38
65 Dominik Shine R +1.03 +0.75 +0.04 +0.09 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 5:17
71 Dylan Larkin C +1.01 +0.75 +0.40 -0.11 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 22:38
77 Simon Edvinsson D +1.01 +0.70 +0.04 +0.26 -0.15 0.00 +0.15 — 21:32
93 Alex DeBrincat R +0.75 +0.70 +0.26 -0.28 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 21:19
23 Lucas Raymond L +0.46 +0.55 +0.09 -0.31 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 22:04
22 Mason Appleton C +0.24 0.00 +0.02 +0.38 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 11:16
92 Marco Kasper C +0.13 0.00 +0.20 -0.09 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 11:32
21 James van Riemsdyk L +0.03 0.00 +0.17 -0.12 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 10:28
37 J.T. Compher L -0.20 0.00 0.00 -0.13 0.00 -0.07 0.00 — 14:51
58 Emmitt Finnie C -0.23 0.00 +0.09 -0.43 +0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 17:12
25 Jacob Bernard-Docker D -0.37 0.00 0.00 -0.47 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 9:39
88 Patrick Kane R -0.37 0.00 +0.15 -0.46 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 19:41
8 Ben Chiarot D -0.39 0.00 +0.03 -0.53 0.00 0.00 +0.11 — 18:43
57 David Perron L -0.39 0.00 +0.03 -0.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:40
20 Albert Johansson D -0.40 0.00 +0.01 -0.46 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 10:52
18 Andrew Copp C -0.48 0.00 +0.06 -0.64 +0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 19:50
36 John Gibson G -0.58 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.58 58:16
72 Justin Faulk D -0.72 0.00 +0.06 -0.92 0.00 0.00 +0.14 — 21:53

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.