| Final/OT | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 33 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 25 |
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| No scoring | |||
| 2nd Period | |||
| 1:06 | Blake Coleman (17) Joel Farabee (16), Olli Maatta (7) · tip-in xG 0.08 | 0–1 ▶ | |
| 3:07 | Mikael Granlund (17) Unassisted · snap xG 0.09 | 1–1 ▶ | |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 7:46 | Matvei Gridin (5) Olli Maatta (8), Matt Coronato (20) · wrist xG 0.04 | 1–2 ▶ | |
| 16:27 | Mikael Granlund (18)PP Leo Carlsson (37), John Carlson (41) · snap xG 0.13 | 2–2 ▶ | |
| Overtime | |||
| 4:59 | Mikael Granlund (19)PP John Carlson (42), Cutter Gauthier (27) · slap xG 0.14 | 3–2 ▶ | |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| ANA | CGY | |
|---|---|---|
| 3.19 | Expected goals | 2.29 |
| 3 | Goals (no shootout) | 2 |
| 2.02 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 1.88 |
| 75 | Shot attempts | 53 |
| 51 | Unblocked attempts | 39 |
| 33 | Shots on goal | 25 |
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 3rd Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 8:20 | ANA | No shift | No shift · Gudas, 20:36 on the bench
No shift after 14:12 of the 2nd; 11 shifts (8:33) before that |
| 19:03 | ANA | Deserve to win | Deserve to win · ANA takes the lead, 60–40%
CGY had led since 13:30 of the 2nd, by as much as 63% |
| 19:30 | ANA | No shift | No shift · Vatrano, 10:31 on the bench
No shift after 8:20 of the 3rd; 17 shifts (13:38) before that |
| Overtime | |||
| 0:10 | ANA | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced CGY 1.04–0.04
In xG over 10 minutes, 10:10 of the 3rd to 0:10 of overtime; goals 1–0 |
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 61 | Cutter Gauthier | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 0.38 | 2 | 0 | 22:03 |
| 91 | Leo Carlsson | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 0.34 | 0 | 0 | 20:05 |
| 64 | Mikael Granlund | 3 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 6 | 0.51 | 1 | 1 | 19:31 |
| 22 | Chris Kreider | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.14 | 1 | 0 | 18:19 |
| 17 | Alex Killorn | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 0.10 | 1 | 1 | 17:48 |
| 25 | Ryan Poehling | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.20 | 0 | 0 | 16:54 |
| 45 | Beckett Sennecke | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.26 | 0 | 0 | 15:47 |
| 83 | Mason McTavish | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.14 | 4 | 0 | 15:05 |
| 25 | Jeffrey Viel | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.15 | 1 | 1 | 14:46 |
| 77 | Frank Vatrano | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 0.02 | 2 | 0 | 13:38 |
| 42 | Tim Washe | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.39 | 4 | 1 | 12:51 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 74 | John Carlson | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0.16 | 1 | 0 | 26:55 |
| 2 | Jackson LaCombe | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 8 | 0.12 | 0 | 2 | 25:58 |
| 65 | Jacob Trouba | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 6 | 0.09 | 0 | 1 | 23:31 |
| 98 | Pavel Mintyukov | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.03 | 0 | 2 | 17:44 |
| 8 | Olen Zellweger | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.14 | 1 | 0 | 13:25 |
| 3 | Ian Moore | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | 3 | 0 | 11:00 |
| 6 | Radko Gudas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | 1 | 5 | 08:33 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ville Husso | 25 | 2 | 23 | .920 | 2.29 | +0.29 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 11 | Mikael Backlund | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 0.26 | 0 | 0 | 21:54 |
| 20 | Blake Coleman | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 0.33 | 1 | 0 | 18:30 |
| 86 | Joel Farabee | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 18:16 |
| 17 | Yegor Sharangovich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0.40 | 0 | 1 | 17:19 |
| 16 | Morgan Frost | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.17 | 1 | 1 | 16:52 |
| 92 | Matvei Gridin | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.23 | 0 | 0 | 16:26 |
| 95 | Victor Olofsson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.13 | 0 | 2 | 15:53 |
| 27 | Matt Coronato | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0.43 | 0 | 0 | 15:38 |
| 22 | Ryan Strome | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.05 | 1 | 0 | 13:13 |
| 17 | John Beecher | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 1 | 1 | 10:50 |
| 43 | Adam Klapka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.02 | 4 | 0 | 09:59 |
| 76 | Martin Pospisil | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 3 | 0 | 08:52 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 7 | Kevin Bahl | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.00 | 2 | 1 | 26:06 |
| 28 | Zach Whitecloud | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.02 | 1 | 7 | 25:34 |
| 3 | Olli Maatta | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 22:20 |
| 48 | Hunter Brzustewicz | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0 | 0 | 17:46 |
| 19 | Zayne Parekh | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 4 | 17:06 |
| 44 | Joel Hanley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 2 | 4 | 15:28 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Cooley | 33 | 3 | 30 | .909 | 3.19 | +0.19 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64 Mikael Granlund C | +3.03 | +2.25 | +0.33 | +0.41 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.03 | — | 19:31 |
| 74 John Carlson D | +1.27 | +1.25 | +0.10 | -0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 26:55 |
| 61 Cutter Gauthier L | +1.19 | +0.55 | +0.25 | +0.24 | +0.15 | +0.01 | 0.00 | — | 22:03 |
| 2 Jackson LaCombe D | +1.06 | 0.00 | +0.08 | +0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 25:58 |
| 28 Jeffrey Viel L | +0.75 | 0.00 | +0.10 | +0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 14:46 |
| 65 Jacob Trouba D | +0.67 | 0.00 | +0.06 | +0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 23:31 |
| 25 Ryan Poehling C | +0.53 | 0.00 | +0.13 | +0.38 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.02 | — | 16:54 |
| 45 Beckett Sennecke R | +0.48 | 0.00 | +0.17 | +0.16 | +0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 15:47 |
| 42 Tim Washe C | +0.47 | 0.00 | +0.25 | +0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 12:51 |
| 23 Mason McTavish C | +0.31 | 0.00 | +0.09 | +0.04 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.02 | — | 15:05 |
| 33 Ville Husso G | +0.29 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +0.29 | 64:59 |
| 17 Alex Killorn L | +0.24 | 0.00 | +0.07 | +0.14 | 0.00 | -0.02 | +0.05 | — | 17:48 |
| 91 Leo Carlsson C | +0.06 | +0.70 | +0.22 | -0.84 | 0.00 | -0.02 | 0.00 | — | 20:05 |
| 51 Olen Zellweger D | -0.05 | 0.00 | +0.09 | -0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 13:25 |
| 3 Ian Moore D | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 11:00 |
| 7 Radko Gudas D | -0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.25 | — | 8:33 |
| 20 Chris Kreider L | -0.61 | 0.00 | +0.09 | -0.54 | -0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 18:19 |
| 98 Pavel Mintyukov D | -0.61 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 17:44 |
| 77 Frank Vatrano R | -0.72 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 13:38 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Olli Maatta D | +1.50 | +1.25 | 0.00 | +0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.06 | — | 22:20 |
| 27 Matt Coronato R | +0.84 | +0.55 | +0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 | 0.00 | — | 15:38 |
| 20 Blake Coleman L | +0.79 | +0.75 | +0.21 | +0.05 | -0.15 | -0.01 | -0.06 | — | 18:30 |
| 86 Joel Farabee L | +0.73 | +0.70 | 0.00 | +0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 18:16 |
| 19 Zayne Parekh D | +0.64 | 0.00 | +0.09 | +0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.16 | — | 17:06 |
| 92 Matvei Gridin R | +0.62 | +0.75 | +0.15 | -0.24 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.02 | — | 16:26 |
| 17 Yegor Sharangovich C | +0.49 | 0.00 | +0.26 | -0.01 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.09 | — | 17:19 |
| 48 Hunter Brzustewicz D | +0.46 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.61 | -0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 17:46 |
| 95 Victor Olofsson L | +0.30 | 0.00 | +0.09 | +0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.14 | — | 15:53 |
| 11 Mikael Backlund C | +0.28 | 0.00 | +0.17 | +0.12 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.04 | — | 21:54 |
| 1 Devin Cooley G | +0.19 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +0.19 | 64:59 |
| 16 Morgan Frost C | +0.14 | 0.00 | +0.11 | -0.05 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.03 | — | 16:52 |
| 18 John Beecher C | +0.10 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.09 | 0.00 | -0.05 | +0.03 | — | 10:50 |
| 76 Martin Pospisil C | +0.04 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 8:52 |
| 44 Joel Hanley D | -0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.18 | — | 15:28 |
| 43 Adam Klapka R | -0.13 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.03 | -0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 9:59 |
| 22 Ryan Strome C | -0.16 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.15 | 0.00 | -0.04 | 0.00 | — | 13:13 |
| 28 Zach Whitecloud D | -0.24 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.31 | — | 25:34 |
| 7 Kevin Bahl D | -0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 26:06 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.