Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT 8–3 Final New York IslandersNYI

Monday, March 30, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT 053 8 32
New York IslandersNYI 030 3 23
Playoff odds, % Change
NYI -12.0
PIT +11.2

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 30, 2026 6:23 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
1:27 NYI Anders Lee (17)PP Adam Boqvist (3), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (17) · backhand xG 0.06 0–1 ▶
2:56 NYI Mathew Barzal (19) Calum Ritchie (14), Adam Boqvist (4) · snap xG 0.15 0–2 ▶
6:41 PIT Elmer Soderblom (4) Connor Dewar (14), Noel Acciari (11) · snap xG 0.30 1–2 ▶
9:17 NYI Brayden Schenn (16) Mathew Barzal (48), Calum Ritchie (15) · snap xG 0.36 1–3 ▶
11:01 PIT Rickard Rakell (18)SH Bryan Rust (34), Parker Wotherspoon (25) · deflected xG 0.14 2–3 ▶
13:29 PIT Ryan Shea (5) Anthony Mantha (28), Sidney Crosby (37) · slap xG 0.04 3–3 ▶
14:35 PIT Anthony Mantha (28) Justin Brazeau (15), Parker Wotherspoon (26) · backhand xG 0.14 4–3 ▶
17:18 PIT Anthony Mantha (29) Justin Brazeau (16), Kris Letang (26) · backhand xG 0.15 5–3 ▶
3rd Period
6:06 PIT Avery Hayes (3) Ben Kindel (17), Tommy Novak (23) · snap xG 0.40 6–3 ▶
7:54 PIT Rickard Rakell (19) Justin Brazeau (17), Samuel Girard (12) · deflected xG 0.21 7–3 ▶
16:16 PIT Bryan Rust (27) Sidney Crosby (38), Kris Letang (27) · wrist xG 0.17 8–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

PIT 85%Deserve to win15% NYI
PITNYI
4.98Expected goals2.37
8Goals (no shootout)3
4.73Expected goals, 5 on 52.07
64Shot attempts53
50Unblocked attempts35
32Shots on goal23

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
6:39 NYI Goalie Goalie · Sorokin +2.0 goals saved
0 goals on 2.03 xG, 13 shots on goal
3rd Period
6:06 NYI Goalie Goalie · Sorokin −2.2 goals saved
6 goals on 3.84 xG, 27 shots on goal
7:54 NYI Goalie change Goalie change · Rittich in for Sorokin
7:54 of the 3rd; Sorokin had allowed 7 goals on 29 shots (4.22 xG)
14:50 PIT xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced NYI 1.48–0.27
In xG over 10 minutes, 4:50 to 14:50 of the 3rd; goals 2–0

Shot map

PIT shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ NYI shoots
Erik Karlsson: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 0:31) Ondrej Palat: tip-in, 26 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 1:22) Ryan Pulock: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:36) Bo Horvat: snap, 8 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 3:33) Bo Horvat: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:34) Connor Dewar: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 5:42) Noel Acciari: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 6:02) Connor Dewar: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 6:14) Casey Cizikas: wrap-around, 4 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 6:59) Sidney Crosby: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 7:33) Ondrej Palat: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:14) Adam Pelech: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:54) Ryan Pulock: snap, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:49) Adam Boqvist: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 11:51) Kyle MacLean: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 12:27) Marc Gatcomb: wrap-around, 4 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 12:44) Adam Pelech: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:47) Bryan Rust: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 13:09) Sidney Crosby: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 13:28) Sidney Crosby: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 13:29) Egor Chinakhov: slap, 63 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 13:35) Justin Brazeau: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 14:27) Ben Kindel: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 14:47) Erik Karlsson: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 15:19) Egor Chinakhov: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 15:33) Parker Wotherspoon: snap, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 15:39) Sidney Crosby: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.23 (P1 15:42) Rickard Rakell: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 17:02) Sidney Crosby: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 18:14) Bo Horvat: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 0:42) Adam Boqvist: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 0:48) Avery Hayes: tip-in, 21 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 2:12) Ben Kindel: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 2:19) Connor Clifton: tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 2:29) Avery Hayes: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:36) Adam Pelech: snap, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:13) Elmer Soderblom: deflected, 19 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 6:05) Noel Acciari: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 6:33) Noel Acciari: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 6:37) Connor Dewar: deflected, 5 ft, xG 0.29 (P2 6:39) Bo Horvat: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 8:40) Emil Heineman: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 8:57) Mathew Barzal: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 9:15) Ben Kindel: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 11:44) Mathew Barzal: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 11:56) Egor Chinakhov: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 14:06) Parker Wotherspoon: snap, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 16:18) Justin Brazeau: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 16:43) Anthony Mantha: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 16:44) Anthony Mantha: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 16:45) Elmer Soderblom: backhand, 18 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 18:13) Casey Cizikas: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 19:57) Matthew Schaefer: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 0:24) Noel Acciari: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:39) Avery Hayes: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:23) Matthew Schaefer: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 2:43) Ben Kindel: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 5:41) Ben Kindel: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 6:02) Ben Kindel: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:02) Bryan Rust: backhand, 32 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:52) Matthew Schaefer: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:08) Justin Brazeau: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 7:52) Carson Soucy: snap, 12 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 9:50) Mathew Barzal: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 9:55) Adam Boqvist: snap, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 10:33) Matthew Schaefer: snap, 66 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 10:56) Sidney Crosby: backhand, 99 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 13:16) Scott Mayfield: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:38) Rickard Rakell: wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.40 (P3 14:49) Ryan Pulock: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:45) Anthony Mantha: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 18:22) Kyle MacLean: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 19:08) Marc Gatcomb: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 19:34) Carson Soucy: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 19:38) Anders Lee: GOAL, backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 1:27) Mathew Barzal: GOAL, snap, 17 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 2:56) Elmer Soderblom: GOAL, snap, 8 ft, xG 0.30 (P2 6:41) Brayden Schenn: GOAL, snap, 9 ft, xG 0.36 (P2 9:17) Rickard Rakell: GOAL, deflected, 12 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 11:01) Ryan Shea: GOAL, slap, 39 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 13:29) Anthony Mantha: GOAL, backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 14:35) Anthony Mantha: GOAL, backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 17:18) Avery Hayes: GOAL, snap, 6 ft, xG 0.40 (P3 6:06) Rickard Rakell: GOAL, deflected, 10 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 7:54) Bryan Rust: GOAL, wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 16:16)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Pittsburgh Penguins

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
17 Bryan Rust 112 +1 30.27 1118:41
39 Anthony Mantha 213 +4 60.59 0018:13
87 Sidney Crosby 022 +1 70.51 0116:48
67 Rickard Rakell 202 +3 40.78 1016:28
19 Connor Dewar 011 0 30.40 0115:08
59 Egor Chinakhov 000 0 30.09 0114:58
81 Ben Kindel 011 +2 70.48 0114:25
16 Justin Brazeau 033 +3 30.27 3314:23
18 Tommy Novak 011 +1 10.00 0212:19
85 Avery Hayes 101 +1 50.50 1011:49
52 Noel Acciari 011 +1 40.34 1111:44
25 Elmer Soderblom 101 0 30.41 3111:32
Defense
49 Samuel Girard 011 +2 10.00 1020:50
29 Parker Wotherspoon 022 +3 40.03 1220:39
58 Kris Letang 022 +3 00.00 1119:43
65 Erik Karlsson 000 +1 60.11 0019:41
6 Ryan Shea 101 +1 10.04 0119:04
75 Connor Clifton 000 +2 30.17 3118:53
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Arturs Silovs 23320 .870 2.37 -0.63

New York Islanders

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
13 Mathew Barzal 112 -2 40.47 0118:21
14 Bo Horvat 000 -2 60.34 0018:06
51 Emil Heineman 000 -2 10.12 4217:41
10 Brayden Schenn 101 -2 20.36 3116:09
72 Anders Lee 101 -2 20.06 3115:38
92 Simon Holmstrom 000 -3 00.00 0115:03
44 Jean-Gabriel Pageau 011 -2 00.00 0014:55
64 Calum Ritchie 022 0 10.00 0113:57
32 Kyle MacLean 000 -1 20.19 1012:55
53 Casey Cizikas 000 -1 20.08 1112:38
17 Marc Gatcomb 000 -1 30.16 1011:29
81 Ondrej Palat 000 -2 20.04 0011:12
Defense
3 Adam Pelech 000 -3 60.03 1022:23
48 Matthew Schaefer 000 -2 80.21 1122:14
6 Ryan Pulock 000 -1 50.02 0320:31
7 Carson Soucy 000 -2 20.17 0020:19
34 Adam Boqvist 022 -2 50.11 0117:48
24 Scott Mayfield 000 0 20.01 1114:41
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Ilya Sorokin 29722 .759 4.22 -2.78
David Rittich 312 .667 0.76 -0.24

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
39 Anthony Mantha R +4.64 +2.20 +0.39 +2.09 0.00 +0.01 -0.04 — 18:13
16 Justin Brazeau R +4.28 +2.10 +0.18 +1.85 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 14:23
67 Rickard Rakell R +3.17 +1.50 +0.51 +1.32 -0.15 -0.03 +0.02 — 16:28
58 Kris Letang D +3.15 +1.10 0.00 +2.00 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 19:43
28 Parker Wotherspoon D +2.91 +1.10 +0.02 +1.74 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 20:39
81 Ben Kindel C +2.46 +0.70 +0.31 +1.47 0.00 -0.07 +0.05 — 14:25
49 Samuel Girard D +2.19 +0.55 0.00 +1.68 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 20:50
87 Sidney Crosby C +2.04 +1.25 +0.33 +0.49 0.00 -0.06 +0.03 — 16:48
55 Noel Acciari C +1.95 +0.55 +0.22 +1.30 -0.15 -0.02 +0.05 — 11:44
85 Avery Hayes R +1.91 +0.75 +0.33 +0.85 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 11:49
25 Elmer Soderblom L +1.78 +0.75 +0.27 +0.72 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 11:32
19 Connor Dewar C +1.42 +0.70 +0.26 +0.46 0.00 -0.05 +0.05 — 15:08
18 Tommy Novak C +1.38 +0.55 0.00 +0.78 0.00 -0.01 +0.06 — 12:19
17 Bryan Rust R +1.37 +1.45 +0.17 -0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 18:41
5 Ryan Shea D +1.10 +0.75 +0.03 +0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 19:04
75 Connor Clifton D +1.06 0.00 +0.11 +0.92 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 18:53
65 Erik Karlsson D +0.86 0.00 +0.07 +0.77 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 19:41
59 Egor Chinakhov R +0.24 0.00 +0.06 -0.02 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 14:58
37 Arturs Silovs G -0.63 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.63 60:00

New York Islanders

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
64 Calum Ritchie C +0.38 +1.25 0.00 -0.90 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 13:57
27 Anders Lee L +0.36 +0.75 +0.04 -0.46 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 15:38
34 Adam Boqvist D +0.31 +1.25 +0.07 -1.08 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 17:48
13 Mathew Barzal C +0.24 +1.45 +0.30 -1.58 0.00 +0.04 +0.03 — 18:21
4 Carson Soucy D -0.02 0.00 +0.11 -0.11 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 20:19
53 Casey Cizikas C -0.03 0.00 +0.05 -0.17 0.00 +0.04 +0.05 — 12:38
16 Marc Gatcomb C -0.05 0.00 +0.11 -0.17 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 11:29
32 Kyle MacLean C -0.14 0.00 +0.12 -0.41 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 12:55
33 David Rittich G -0.24 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.24 12:06
44 Jean-Gabriel Pageau C -0.37 +0.55 0.00 -0.81 -0.15 +0.04 0.00 — 14:55
51 Emil Heineman L -0.49 0.00 +0.08 -0.67 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 17:41
24 Scott Mayfield D -0.64 0.00 0.00 -0.69 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 14:41
14 Bo Horvat C -0.74 0.00 +0.22 -1.17 +0.15 +0.08 -0.02 — 18:06
10 Brayden Schenn C -1.05 +0.75 +0.23 -2.11 0.00 +0.03 +0.05 — 16:09
3 Adam Pelech D -1.08 0.00 +0.02 -1.06 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 22:23
81 Ondrej Palat L -1.10 0.00 +0.03 -1.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:12
6 Ryan Pulock D -1.25 0.00 +0.01 -1.39 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 20:31
92 Simon Holmstrom R -2.03 0.00 0.00 -2.04 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 15:03
48 Matthew Schaefer D -2.24 0.00 +0.14 -2.43 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 22:14
30 Ilya Sorokin G -2.78 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -2.78 47:54

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.