Montréal CanadiensMTL 4–1 Final Tampa Bay LightningTBL

Tuesday, March 31, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Montréal CanadiensMTL	1	1	2	4	23
Tampa Bay LightningTBL	1	0	0	1	37

Playoff odds, %	Change
MTL	+0.4
TBL	-0.0

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 31, 2026 6:10 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
12:25	MTL	Juraj Slafkovský (29)PP Ivan Demidov (42), Cole Caufield (34) · snap xG 0.17	1–0 ▶
13:41	TBL	Jake Guentzel (36) Zemgus Girgensons (9), Ryan McDonagh (10) · wrist xG 0.16	1–1 ▶
2nd Period
12:49	MTL	Cole Caufield (47) Juraj Slafkovský (37), Mike Matheson (29) · wrist xG 0.10	2–1 ▶
3rd Period
17:54	MTL	Mike Matheson (7)SHEN Unassisted · slap xG 0.46	3–1 ▶
18:54	MTL	Nick Suzuki (27)EN Unassisted · wrist xG 0.67	4–1 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

MTL 38%Deserve to win62% TBL

MTL		TBL
3.66	Expected goals	3.25
4	Goals (no shootout)	1
1.52	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.01
43	Shot attempts	64
34	Unblocked attempts	47
23	Shots on goal	37

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
12:25	MTL	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · MTL takes the lead, 64–36% TBL had led since 4:40 of the 1st, by as much as 68%
3rd Period
16:56	MTL	Goalie	Goalie · Dobes +2.1 goals saved 1 goal on 3.07 xG, 36 shots on goal
17:27	TBL	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Vasilevskiy, down 2–1 With 2:33 left; MTL scored at 17:54 of the 3rd (3–1)
17:35	TBL	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · TBL takes the lead, 61–39% MTL had led since 12:25 of the 1st, by as much as 64%

Shot map

MTL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TBL shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Montréal Canadiens

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
14	Nick Suzuki	1	0	1	+3	6	1.02	1	1	20:27
20	Juraj Slafkovský	1	1	2	+2	3	0.23	2	2	19:11
13	Cole Caufield	1	1	2	+2	7	0.32	0	0	17:04
93	Ivan Demidov	0	1	1	0	5	0.60	1	0	15:43
15	Alex Newhook	0	0	0	-1	2	0.12	0	1	14:45
24	Phillip Danault	0	0	0	+1	1	0.09	1	0	14:44
71	Jake Evans	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	4	14:43
91	Oliver Kapanen	0	0	0	0	1	0.12	0	0	14:30
90	Joseph Veleno	0	0	0	0	2	0.13	4	0	13:03
17	Josh Anderson	0	0	0	0	3	0.30	4	0	12:32
76	Zachary Bolduc	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	0	10:37
7	Brendan Gallagher	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	2	0	08:18
Defense
48	Lane Hutson	0	0	0	+1	2	0.15	0	3	26:11
8	Mike Matheson	1	1	2	+2	2	0.46	1	2	23:28
53	Noah Dobson	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	1	0	21:45
21	Kaiden Guhle	0	0	0	+1	3	0.04	2	3	18:14
3	Jayden Struble	0	0	0	0	2	0.01	1	1	13:48
72	Arber Xhekaj	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	1	0	12:57

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Jakub Dobes	37	1	36	.973	3.25	+2.25

Tampa Bay Lightning

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
86	Nikita Kucherov	0	0	0	-3	11	0.60	1	0	23:10
38	Brandon Hagel	0	0	0	-3	7	0.35	0	0	22:21
59	Jake Guentzel	1	0	1	-1	3	0.27	0	2	21:06
21	Brayden Point	0	0	0	-1	6	0.52	0	0	20:32
71	Anthony Cirelli	0	0	0	-2	2	0.09	0	1	15:49
37	Yanni Gourde	0	0	0	0	5	0.28	3	0	14:19
93	Gage Goncalves	0	0	0	+1	2	0.00	0	1	13:43
28	Zemgus Girgensons	0	1	1	0	2	0.22	1	1	12:42
29	Pontus Holmberg	0	0	0	0	4	0.19	1	0	11:15
20	Nick Paul	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4	0	10:47
90	Corey Perry	0	0	0	-1	2	0.12	0	0	09:51
49	Scott Sabourin	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	0	09:05
Defense
43	Darren Raddysh	0	0	0	0	6	0.02	0	0	23:35
27	Ryan McDonagh	0	1	1	+1	4	0.46	0	0	19:33
90	J.J. Moser	0	0	0	-1	3	0.01	0	1	17:55
51	Charle-Edouard D'Astous	0	0	0	-2	1	0.00	0	0	17:23
78	Emil Lilleberg	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	5	2	17:17
81	Erik Cernak	0	0	0	0	5	0.12	3	1	15:58

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy	21	2	19	.905	2.53	+0.53

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Montréal Canadiens

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
75 Jakub Dobes G	+2.25	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+2.25	60:00
13 Cole Caufield R	+2.15	+1.30	+0.21	+0.49	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	17:05
20 Juraj Slafkovský L	+1.94	+1.45	+0.15	+0.26	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	19:12
14 Nick Suzuki C	+1.65	+0.75	+0.66	+0.30	-0.15	0.00	+0.09	—	20:27
8 Mike Matheson D	+1.48	+1.30	+0.30	-0.18	0.00	0.00	+0.06	—	23:28
48 Lane Hutson D	+0.41	0.00	+0.10	-0.12	+0.30	0.00	+0.13	—	26:11
76 Zachary Bolduc R	+0.34	0.00	0.00	+0.34	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	10:37
24 Phillip Danault C	+0.29	0.00	+0.06	+0.17	0.00	+0.06	0.00	—	14:43
93 Ivan Demidov R	+0.27	+0.70	+0.39	-0.82	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	15:43
17 Josh Anderson R	+0.18	0.00	+0.20	-0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	12:31
90 Joseph Veleno C	+0.15	0.00	+0.09	+0.05	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	13:03
11 Brendan Gallagher R	+0.05	0.00	+0.03	+0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	8:18
47 Jayden Struble D	+0.03	0.00	0.00	+0.13	-0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	13:48
71 Jake Evans C	+0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	+0.20	—	14:43
21 Kaiden Guhle D	-0.19	0.00	+0.03	-0.22	-0.15	0.00	+0.15	—	18:14
72 Arber Xhekaj D	-0.32	0.00	+0.02	-0.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	12:57
53 Noah Dobson D	-0.40	0.00	0.00	-0.36	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	21:45
91 Oliver Kapanen C	-1.00	0.00	+0.07	-1.04	0.00	-0.04	0.00	—	14:30
15 Alex Newhook C	-1.23	0.00	+0.08	-1.24	-0.15	+0.04	+0.05	—	14:45

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
27 Ryan McDonagh D	+2.19	+0.55	+0.30	+1.32	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	19:33
59 Jake Guentzel C	+1.17	+0.75	+0.18	+0.16	0.00	-0.01	+0.10	—	21:06
28 Zemgus Girgensons C	+1.16	+0.70	+0.14	+0.27	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	12:42
81 Erik Cernak D	+1.11	0.00	+0.08	+1.00	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	15:58
29 Pontus Holmberg R	+0.89	0.00	+0.12	+0.48	+0.30	0.00	-0.02	—	11:15
93 Gage Goncalves C	+0.87	0.00	0.00	+0.81	0.00	-0.01	+0.07	—	13:43
37 Yanni Gourde C	+0.57	0.00	+0.18	+0.20	+0.15	+0.06	-0.02	—	14:19
88 Andrei Vasilevskiy G	+0.53	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.53	57:40
21 Brayden Point C	+0.41	0.00	+0.34	+0.16	0.00	-0.05	-0.04	—	20:32
71 Anthony Cirelli C	+0.38	0.00	+0.06	+0.30	0.00	+0.02	+0.01	—	15:49
38 Brandon Hagel L	+0.38	0.00	+0.23	+0.15	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	22:21
43 Darren Raddysh D	+0.31	0.00	+0.01	+0.30	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	23:35
10 Corey Perry R	+0.01	0.00	+0.08	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	9:50
46 Scott Sabourin R	-0.04	0.00	0.00	-0.06	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	9:05
20 Nick Paul L	-0.27	0.00	0.00	-0.22	0.00	-0.05	0.00	—	10:47
86 Nikita Kucherov R	-0.40	0.00	+0.39	-0.58	-0.15	0.00	-0.06	—	23:10
90 J.J. Moser D	-0.50	0.00	0.00	-0.53	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	17:55
78 Emil Lilleberg D	-0.55	0.00	0.00	-0.61	0.00	0.00	+0.06	—	17:17
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D	-0.56	0.00	0.00	-0.37	-0.15	0.00	-0.04	—	17:23

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.