Tuesday, March 31, 2026
Playoff odds, %
Change
NJD
-0.2
NYR
+0.0
How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 31, 2026 7:12 PM EDT.
Highlights
Shot quality
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken,
the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
NJD 45%Deserve to win 55% NYR
NJD NYR
3.21 Expected goals 3.56
1 Goals (no shootout) 4
2.21 Expected goals, 5 on 5 2.77
66 Shot attempts 59
47 Unblocked attempts 47
23 Shots on goal 23
Game notes
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is
counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the
shots' expected goals (xG).
1st Period
19:20
NYR
xG swing
xG swing · Out-chanced NJD 1.17–0.10
In xG over 10 minutes, 9:20 to 19:20 of the 1st; goals 1–0
3rd Period
16:05
NYR
Goalie
Goalie · Shesterkin +2.2 goals saved
1 goal on 3.20 xG, 23 shots on goal
Shot map
NJD shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal → NYR shoots
Gabe Perreault: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 0:09)
Jack Hughes: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 0:19)
Luke Hughes: wrist, 83 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 1:26)
Braden Schneider: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:10)
Nico Hischier: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 4:42)
Lenni Hameenaho: backhand, 47 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 5:21)
Connor Brown: tip-in, 25 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 6:45)
Lenni Hameenaho: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 7:32)
Jonas Siegenthaler: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 7:40)
Tye Kartye: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 8:04)
Jesper Bratt: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 8:38)
Brenden Dillon: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 9:19)
Conor Sheary: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 9:55)
Connor Brown: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 10:21)
Gabe Perreault: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 10:36)
Gabe Perreault: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 10:43)
Vladislav Gavrikov: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 10:45)
Jesper Bratt: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 11:43)
Alexis Lafrenière: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 12:19)
Vladislav Gavrikov: slap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:52)
Conor Sheary: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 15:45)
Drew Fortescue: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 16:26)
Gabe Perreault: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 17:59)
Gabe Perreault: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 18:00)
Jonny Brodzinski: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 18:15)
Jaroslav Chmelar: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 18:43)
Vladislav Gavrikov: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 18:47)
Jesper Bratt: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 19:51)
Connor Brown: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 0:16)
Gabe Perreault: wrist, 91 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 0:28)
Luke Hughes: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:47)
Nico Hischier: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 0:48)
Will Borgen: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:16)
Jonny Brodzinski: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:35)
Jonny Brodzinski: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 3:06)
Nico Hischier: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:28)
Simon Nemec: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:32)
Tye Kartye: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 3:53)
Conor Sheary: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 4:19)
Will Borgen: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 4:24)
Maxim Tsyplakov: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 5:19)
Paul Cotter: wrap-around, 6 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 5:35)
Timo Meier: deflected, 7 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 6:20)
Dawson Mercer: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 6:25)
Simon Nemec: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 6:26)
Nico Hischier: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 6:30)
Adam Fox: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 7:16)
Mika Zibanejad: slap, 27 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 7:27)
Mika Zibanejad: slap, 15 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 8:06)
Nick Bjugstad: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 8:41)
Noah Laba: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 9:26)
Will Cuylle: slap, 12 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 9:38)
Jesper Bratt: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:46)
Jaroslav Chmelar: tip-in, 29 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 11:10)
Mika Zibanejad: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 12:31)
Luke Hughes: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:00)
Braden Schneider: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:32)
Lenni Hameenaho: wrist, 123 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 14:11)
Matthew Robertson: wrist, 181 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 15:02)
Jack Hughes: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 15:13)
Jack Hughes: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 15:58)
Braden Schneider: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:35)
Jack Hughes: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 17:19)
Vincent Trocheck: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 17:58)
Lenni Hameenaho: backhand, 19 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:12)
Will Borgen: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:39)
Lenni Hameenaho: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 1:59)
Will Borgen: slap, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:45)
Conor Sheary: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 4:35)
Jack Hughes: slap, 32 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 5:30)
Connor Brown: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 5:50)
Noah Laba: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 5:58)
Luke Hughes: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 6:15)
Paul Cotter: bat, 10 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 9:01)
Will Cuylle: slap, 27 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 11:03)
Paul Cotter: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 11:10)
Johnathan Kovacevic: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 11:14)
Evgenii Dadonov: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 12:19)
Jaroslav Chmelar: slap, 21 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 13:48)
J.T. Miller: slap, 30 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 13:57)
Luke Hughes: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 14:18)
Dougie Hamilton: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:32)
Maxim Tsyplakov: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 15:40)
Brenden Dillon: snap, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:59)
Cody Glass: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 16:03)
Lenni Hameenaho: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.26 (P3 16:05)
Alexis Lafrenière: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 16:41)
Jonny Brodzinski: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 18:09)
Cody Glass: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 19:47)
Conor Sheary: GOAL, tip-in, 27 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 8:14)
J.T. Miller: GOAL, wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.29 (P1 13:39)
Connor Brown: GOAL, backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.45 (P2 0:51)
Jaroslav Chmelar: GOAL, backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.24 (P2 11:12)
Mika Zibanejad: GOAL, wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 3:49)
About these numbers
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot
from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the
share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how
often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count
as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map
leaves them out.
All columns
Box score
New Jersey Devils
New York Rangers
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
Player ratings
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
New Jersey Devils
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
5 Brenden Dillon D
+0.89
0.00
+0.07
+1.01
-0.15
0.00
-0.04
—
17:37
17 Simon Nemec D
+0.74
0.00
+0.02
+0.74
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
22:54
42 Maxim Tsyplakov R
+0.71
0.00
+0.12
+0.59
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
9:01
13 Nico Hischier C
+0.54
+0.70
+0.11
-0.28
0.00
+0.01
+0.01
—
19:38
47 Paul Cotter L
+0.52
0.00
+0.16
+0.39
-0.03
0.00
0.00
—
8:05
29 Lenni Hameenaho R
+0.46
0.00
+0.24
+0.24
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
10:05
16 Connor Brown R
+0.37
+0.75
+0.52
-0.93
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
21:06
12 Cody Glass C
+0.30
0.00
+0.08
+0.19
0.00
+0.05
-0.02
—
12:39
33 Evgenii Dadonov L
-0.01
0.00
+0.01
-0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
8:09
43 Luke Hughes D
-0.08
+0.55
+0.08
-0.73
0.00
0.00
+0.02
—
25:05
91 Dawson Mercer C
-0.10
0.00
+0.09
-0.23
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
17:51
72 Nick Bjugstad C
-0.13
0.00
+0.13
-0.36
0.00
0.00
+0.10
—
11:08
28 Timo Meier R
-0.28
0.00
+0.09
-0.39
0.00
0.00
+0.01
—
18:29
25 Jacob Markstrom G
-0.56
0.00
—
—
-0.12
—
—
-0.44
60:00
7 Dougie Hamilton D
-0.64
0.00
+0.01
-0.74
+0.15
0.00
-0.05
—
18:23
8 Johnathan Kovacevic D
-0.71
0.00
+0.02
-0.95
+0.15
0.00
+0.07
—
17:34
86 Jack Hughes C
-0.91
0.00
+0.21
-1.06
0.00
-0.04
-0.02
—
21:58
63 Jesper Bratt L
-1.20
0.00
+0.13
-1.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
19:03
71 Jonas Siegenthaler D
-1.38
0.00
+0.02
-1.48
0.00
0.00
+0.08
—
16:01
New York Rangers
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
31 Igor Shesterkin G
+2.33
0.00
—
—
+0.12
—
—
+2.21
60:00
93 Mika Zibanejad C
+2.18
+0.75
+0.30
+1.17
0.00
0.00
-0.04
—
17:20
94 Gabe Perreault R
+1.86
+0.70
+0.24
+1.07
-0.15
0.00
0.00
—
14:42
23 Adam Fox D
+1.78
+1.10
+0.04
+0.59
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
22:37
13 Alexis Lafrenière L
+1.77
+0.70
+0.11
+0.98
0.00
-0.01
0.00
—
17:52
24 Tye Kartye L
+1.64
+0.70
+0.16
+0.75
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
14:02
43 Conor Sheary L
+1.61
+0.75
+0.27
+0.42
+0.15
-0.01
+0.03
—
12:37
49 Jaroslav Chmelar R
+1.50
+0.75
+0.23
+0.52
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
10:31
8 J.T. Miller C
+1.43
+0.75
+0.24
+0.52
-0.15
+0.02
+0.05
—
19:10
17 Will Borgen D
+1.14
+0.55
+0.03
+0.56
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
18:30
44 Vladislav Gavrikov D
+1.11
0.00
+0.21
+0.77
0.00
0.00
+0.13
—
22:18
4 Braden Schneider D
+0.83
+0.70
+0.02
-0.02
0.00
0.00
+0.13
—
18:35
29 Matthew Robertson D
+0.73
0.00
0.00
+0.63
0.00
0.00
+0.10
—
18:32
22 Jonny Brodzinski C
+0.47
0.00
+0.10
+0.23
+0.15
-0.01
0.00
—
11:50
42 Noah Laba C
+0.35
0.00
+0.11
+0.31
0.00
-0.05
-0.02
—
11:54
45 Drew Fortescue D
-0.11
0.00
+0.01
-0.27
0.00
0.00
+0.15
—
13:48
50 Will Cuylle L
-0.83
0.00
+0.19
-0.87
-0.15
0.00
0.00
—
16:27
38 Adam Sykora L
-0.88
0.00
0.00
-0.93
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
13:02
16 Vincent Trocheck C
-0.97
0.00
+0.06
-1.08
0.00
+0.04
+0.01
—
22:07
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a
player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays,
all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.