Thursday, April 2, 2026
Playoff odds, %
Change
MTL
+0.0
NYR
+0.0
How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Apr 2, 2026 6:44 PM EDT.
Highlights
Shot quality
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken,
the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
MTL 43%Deserve to win 57% NYR
MTL NYR
3.26 Expected goals 2.78
3 Goals (no shootout) 2
1.87 Expected goals, 5 on 5 1.69
45 Shot attempts 56
38 Unblocked attempts 43
25 Shots on goal 24
Game notes
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is
counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the
shots' expected goals (xG).
3rd Period
17:59
NYR
Pulled goalie
Pulled goalie · Pulled Shesterkin, down 3–2
With 2:01 left
Shot map
MTL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal → NYR shoots
Kaiden Guhle: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:45)
Will Borgen: snap, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 2:05)
Noah Dobson: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:16)
Josh Anderson: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:15)
Vincent Trocheck: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 7:28)
Adam Fox: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 8:52)
Conor Sheary: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 9:29)
Will Cuylle: slap, 30 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 9:38)
Alexis Lafrenière: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 10:18)
Vincent Trocheck: tip-in, 24 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 10:22)
Mika Zibanejad: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 10:23)
Will Cuylle: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 11:11)
Matthew Robertson: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 11:35)
Cole Caufield: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 12:03)
Kaiden Guhle: snap, 73 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:03)
Phillip Danault: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 14:11)
Jake Evans: tip-in, 25 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 14:18)
Juraj Slafkovský: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 14:58)
Alex Newhook: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 15:26)
Noah Dobson: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 16:12)
Josh Anderson: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 18:23)
Will Cuylle: deflected, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:02)
Will Cuylle: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 19:04)
Will Borgen: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 19:31)
Conor Sheary: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 19:33)
Drew Fortescue: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:27)
Lane Hutson: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 2:17)
Brendan Gallagher: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:14)
Zachary Bolduc: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:26)
Jonny Brodzinski: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 4:50)
Arber Xhekaj: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 5:40)
Cole Caufield: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 10:08)
Josh Anderson: backhand, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 11:25)
Kaiden Guhle: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 11:44)
Adam Fox: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 12:09)
Juraj Slafkovský: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:30)
Cole Caufield: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 12:37)
Alexis Lafrenière: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 13:13)
Phillip Danault: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 13:51)
Conor Sheary: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 14:16)
Jake Evans: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 15:11)
Alexis Lafrenière: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 15:22)
Alexis Lafrenière: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 15:23)
Adam Fox: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 15:35)
Ivan Demidov: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 16:20)
Cole Caufield: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 16:49)
Tye Kartye: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 17:53)
Braden Schneider: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:08)
Jake Evans: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 19:09)
Will Cuylle: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 19:33)
Noah Laba: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 2:27)
Cole Caufield: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.36 (P3 4:04)
Cole Caufield: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 4:05)
Juraj Slafkovský: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 4:15)
Ivan Demidov: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 4:57)
Alexis Lafrenière: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 5:53)
Braden Schneider: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 6:07)
Brendan Gallagher: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 6:45)
Braden Schneider: snap, 63 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 8:25)
Alexis Lafrenière: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 9:08)
Alexis Lafrenière: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 9:17)
J.T. Miller: deflected, 7 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 9:49)
Juraj Slafkovský: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 11:29)
Jaroslav Chmelar: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 12:20)
Nick Suzuki: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 14:35)
Will Cuylle: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 14:44)
Vladislav Gavrikov: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 16:56)
Adam Fox: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 17:15)
Conor Sheary: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 17:40)
Alexis Lafrenière: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 17:59)
Vladislav Gavrikov: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 18:10)
Nick Suzuki: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.62 (P3 18:35)
Juraj Slafkovský: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 18:38)
Will Cuylle: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 19:00)
Will Cuylle: deflected, 7 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 19:45)
Juraj Slafkovský: wrist, 174 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 19:51)
Alex Newhook: GOAL, slap, 40 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 4:36)
Cole Caufield: GOAL, snap, 30 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 6:20)
Adam Fox: GOAL, snap, 21 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 9:23)
Will Cuylle: GOAL, deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.22 (P3 14:08)
Cole Caufield: GOAL, wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 14:55)
About these numbers
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot
from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the
share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how
often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count
as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map
leaves them out.
All columns
Box score
Montréal Canadiens
Goalie
SA GA
SV SV%
xGA
GSAx
Jacob Fowler
24 2 22
.917
2.78
+0.78
New York Rangers
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
Player ratings
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
Montréal Canadiens
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
13 Cole Caufield R
+3.28
+1.50
+0.64
+1.17
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
16:20
14 Nick Suzuki C
+2.71
+1.10
+0.53
+1.17
0.00
-0.01
-0.08
—
21:17
20 Juraj Slafkovský L
+1.92
+0.70
+0.31
+1.17
-0.30
+0.01
+0.03
—
20:38
8 Mike Matheson D
+0.97
+0.70
0.00
+0.29
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
23:22
32 Jacob Fowler G
+0.78
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
+0.78
60:00
48 Lane Hutson D
+0.73
0.00
+0.06
+0.57
0.00
0.00
+0.10
—
25:54
15 Alex Newhook C
+0.60
+0.75
+0.07
-0.25
0.00
+0.03
0.00
—
12:32
21 Kaiden Guhle D
+0.59
0.00
+0.02
+0.37
0.00
0.00
+0.20
—
18:58
93 Ivan Demidov R
+0.40
+0.70
+0.03
-0.27
0.00
0.00
-0.06
—
12:30
72 Arber Xhekaj D
+0.25
0.00
+0.02
+0.18
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
9:45
47 Jayden Struble D
-0.03
0.00
0.00
-0.08
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
15:57
71 Jake Evans C
-0.04
0.00
+0.22
-0.31
0.00
+0.05
0.00
—
19:11
76 Zachary Bolduc R
-0.07
0.00
0.00
-0.22
+0.15
0.00
0.00
—
13:07
91 Oliver Kapanen C
-0.18
0.00
0.00
-0.27
+0.15
-0.02
-0.04
—
11:54
11 Brendan Gallagher R
-0.18
0.00
+0.07
-0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
8:50
24 Phillip Danault C
-0.21
0.00
+0.09
-0.32
0.00
+0.03
0.00
—
13:58
17 Josh Anderson R
-0.22
0.00
+0.03
-0.30
0.00
-0.01
+0.05
—
16:26
90 Joseph Veleno C
-0.25
0.00
0.00
-0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
10:38
53 Noah Dobson D
-0.45
0.00
+0.03
-0.63
0.00
0.00
+0.15
—
22:43
New York Rangers
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
50 Will Cuylle L
+1.59
+0.75
+0.43
+0.41
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
17:23
22 Jonny Brodzinski C
+1.11
+0.70
+0.02
+0.39
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
13:27
16 Vincent Trocheck C
+0.96
+0.55
+0.09
+0.38
0.00
-0.02
-0.04
—
19:13
93 Mika Zibanejad C
+0.53
+0.70
+0.02
-0.19
0.00
+0.06
-0.06
—
23:00
44 Vladislav Gavrikov D
+0.53
+0.55
+0.08
-0.36
+0.30
0.00
-0.04
—
21:55
45 Drew Fortescue D
+0.49
0.00
+0.01
+0.50
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
14:01
13 Alexis Lafrenière L
+0.43
0.00
+0.40
+0.01
0.00
-0.01
+0.04
—
20:17
23 Adam Fox D
+0.37
+0.75
+0.15
-0.58
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
23:10
38 Adam Sykora L
+0.20
0.00
0.00
+0.15
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
7:16
4 Braden Schneider D
+0.16
0.00
+0.04
+0.03
0.00
0.00
+0.08
—
20:18
49 Jaroslav Chmelar R
+0.13
0.00
+0.02
+0.12
0.00
-0.01
0.00
—
8:04
42 Noah Laba C
+0.09
0.00
+0.09
+0.21
-0.15
-0.05
-0.02
—
12:05
29 Matthew Robertson D
0.00
0.00
+0.01
-0.06
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
17:34
94 Gabe Perreault R
-0.11
0.00
0.00
-0.10
0.00
-0.01
0.00
—
16:32
17 Will Borgen D
-0.42
0.00
+0.03
-0.27
-0.15
0.00
-0.02
—
16:47
43 Conor Sheary L
-0.47
0.00
+0.28
-0.75
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
14:29
31 Igor Shesterkin G
-0.62
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
-0.62
57:59
24 Tye Kartye L
-0.69
0.00
+0.04
-0.69
0.00
0.00
-0.04
—
13:50
8 J.T. Miller C
-0.95
0.00
+0.09
-0.96
0.00
-0.04
-0.04
—
18:40
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a
player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays,
all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.