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Colorado AvalancheCOL 2–0 Final Dallas StarsDAL

Saturday, April 4, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Colorado AvalancheCOL 002 2 22
Dallas StarsDAL 000 0 17
Playoff odds, % Change
COL +0.0
DAL +0.0

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Apr 4, 2026 3:11 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
No scoring
3rd Period
10:39 COL Martin Necas (36) Artturi Lehkonen (26), Devon Toews (20) · tip-in xG 0.10 1–0 ▶
19:02 COL Nathan MacKinnon (51)EN Martin Necas (58), Josh Manson (26) · snap xG 0.72 2–0 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

COL 43%Deserve to win57% DAL
COLDAL
3.05Expected goals1.97
2Goals (no shootout)0
1.47Expected goals, 5 on 51.34
53Shot attempts43
39Unblocked attempts31
22Shots on goal17

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
17:19 DAL Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled DeSmith, down 1–0
With 2:41 left; COL scored at 19:02 of the 3rd (2–0)

Shot map

COL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ DAL shoots
Wyatt Johnston: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 0:19) Artturi Lehkonen: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 0:32) Gabriel Landeskog: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 0:50) Nils Lundkvist: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:59) Mavrik Bourque: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 1:05) Nazem Kadri: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 2:08) Brent Burns: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 2:16) Logan O'Connor: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 2:48) Mavrik Bourque: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:10) Jason Robertson: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 3:26) Oskar Bäck: tip-in, 23 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 7:09) Ross Colton: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 8:44) Sam Malinski: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 9:25) Devon Toews: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 9:35) Arttu Hyry: wrist, 89 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 10:47) Brock Nelson: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 11:18) Brock Nelson: tip-in, 28 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 14:03) Arttu Hyry: wrist, 97 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 14:37) Brock Nelson: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 17:12) Brock Nelson: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 17:13) Artturi Lehkonen: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 17:14) Miro Heiskanen: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 18:07) Jason Robertson: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 18:09) Logan O'Connor: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 18:36) Adam Erne: tip-in, 21 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 18:57) Martin Necas: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 0:17) Joel Kiviranta: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 2:34) Jason Robertson: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 3:53) Wyatt Johnston: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 5:01) Esa Lindell: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 5:11) Jason Robertson: backhand, 93 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 5:43) Logan O'Connor: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 6:05) Sam Malinski: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 6:22) Sam Malinski: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:37) Sam Malinski: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 7:09) Brent Burns: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:18) Josh Manson: slap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:39) Sam Malinski: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 9:48) Miro Heiskanen: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 14:14) Brent Burns: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:26) Brent Burns: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 16:29) Thomas Harley: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 17:12) Wyatt Johnston: snap, 61 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 17:32) Martin Necas: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 0:09) Artturi Lehkonen: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 0:14) Nathan MacKinnon: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 0:28) Artturi Lehkonen: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 0:29) Nils Lundkvist: slap, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:06) Nazem Kadri: backhand, 23 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 5:21) Mikko Rantanen: backhand, 27 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 5:30) Mikko Rantanen: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 5:42) Wyatt Johnston: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 5:55) Matt Duchene: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 6:39) Matt Duchene: snap, 4 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 6:40) Wyatt Johnston: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.26 (P3 6:42) Nathan MacKinnon: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 8:28) Sam Malinski: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 9:24) Parker Kelly: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:56) Nils Lundkvist: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 11:07) Nazem Kadri: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 11:27) Arttu Hyry: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 13:09) Arttu Hyry: snap, 6 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 13:09) Artturi Lehkonen: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 15:04) Arttu Hyry: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 15:35) Arttu Hyry: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 15:50) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 94 ft, xG 0.50 (P3 18:16) Jason Robertson: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 18:53) Martin Necas: wrist, 155 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 18:57) Martin Necas: GOAL, tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 10:39) Nathan MacKinnon: GOAL, snap, 29 ft, xG 0.72 (P3 19:02)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Colorado Avalanche

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
11 Brock Nelson 000 +1 50.20 0221:38
88 Martin Necas 112 +2 40.36 2021:19
29 Nathan MacKinnon 101 +2 51.25 0020:47
62 Artturi Lehkonen 011 +1 60.27 1118:30
43 Valeri Nichushkin 000 0 00.00 1016:43
92 Gabriel Landeskog 000 0 20.04 2014:17
91 Nazem Kadri 000 0 40.10 0013:52
17 Parker Kelly 000 0 10.01 3113:32
22 Joel Kiviranta 000 0 10.09 2010:41
18 Jack Drury 000 0 10.00 0210:15
25 Logan O'Connor 000 0 30.19 0007:51
79 Ross Colton 000 0 10.04 1007:49
Defense
7 Devon Toews 011 +2 20.17 1123:53
70 Sam Malinski 000 +1 90.28 3222:52
42 Josh Manson 011 +1 10.01 3121:07
27 Brett Kulak 000 0 10.00 1020:41
84 Brent Burns 000 0 50.05 1118:16
3 Nick Blankenburg 000 0 20.00 1011:57
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Scott Wedgewood 17017 1.000 1.97 +1.97

Dallas Stars

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
21 Jason Robertson 000 -2 60.24 0024:52
53 Wyatt Johnston 000 -2 60.71 1122:08
96 Mikko Rantanen 000 -1 40.08 1121:45
22 Mavrik Bourque 000 0 30.05 2119:51
95 Matt Duchene 000 -1 20.28 1017:23
49 Justin Hryckowian 000 0 00.00 1216:43
10 Oskar Bäck 000 0 10.05 1016:35
14 Jamie Benn 000 -1 00.00 1014:24
15 Colin Blackwell 000 0 20.00 4012:01
25 Arttu Hyry 000 0 60.32 1009:54
73 Adam Erne 000 -1 20.07 1209:19
Defense
4 Miro Heiskanen 000 -1 30.08 0223:51
55 Thomas Harley 000 0 10.05 1022:24
23 Esa Lindell 000 -1 20.00 0219:10
6 Lian Bichsel 000 -1 10.00 1015:56
5 Nils Lundkvist 000 0 40.04 0013:43
46 Ilya Lyubushkin 000 0 00.00 1110:53
36 Alexander Petrovic 000 0 00.00 0008:51
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Casey DeSmith 21120 .952 1.63 +0.63

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Colorado Avalanche

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
41 Scott Wedgewood G +1.97 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.97 60:00
29 Nathan MacKinnon C +1.94 +0.75 +0.82 +0.39 0.00 +0.03 -0.04 — 20:47
88 Martin Necas C +1.92 +1.45 +0.23 +0.26 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 21:19
62 Artturi Lehkonen L +1.32 +0.70 +0.17 +0.40 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 18:30
7 Devon Toews D +1.29 +0.55 +0.11 +0.58 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 23:53
70 Sam Malinski D +1.02 0.00 +0.18 +0.76 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 22:52
42 Josh Manson D +0.48 +0.55 +0.01 -0.15 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 21:07
91 Nazem Kadri C +0.25 0.00 +0.07 +0.20 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 13:52
11 Brock Nelson C +0.20 0.00 +0.13 +0.13 -0.15 -0.01 +0.10 — 21:38
94 Joel Kiviranta L +0.16 0.00 +0.06 +0.12 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 10:41
13 Valeri Nichushkin R +0.15 0.00 0.00 +0.02 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 16:43
25 Logan O'Connor R +0.11 0.00 +0.12 -0.03 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 7:51
92 Gabriel Landeskog L +0.09 0.00 +0.03 +0.08 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 14:17
17 Parker Kelly C +0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 13:32
84 Brent Burns D -0.01 0.00 +0.03 -0.10 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 18:16
18 Jack Drury C -0.21 0.00 0.00 -0.34 0.00 +0.03 +0.10 — 10:15
20 Ross Colton C -0.31 0.00 +0.02 -0.33 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 7:49
37 Nick Blankenburg D -0.33 0.00 0.00 -0.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:57
27 Brett Kulak D -0.35 0.00 0.00 -0.18 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 20:41

Dallas Stars

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
1 Casey DeSmith G +0.63 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.63 58:17
53 Wyatt Johnston C +0.39 0.00 +0.46 -0.09 0.00 -0.01 +0.03 — 22:08
21 Jason Robertson L +0.28 0.00 +0.15 +0.01 +0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 24:52
28 Alexander Petrovic D +0.20 0.00 0.00 +0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 8:51
22 Mavrik Bourque C +0.17 0.00 +0.03 +0.10 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 19:51
96 Mikko Rantanen R +0.17 0.00 +0.05 +0.12 0.00 -0.03 +0.03 — 21:45
25 Arttu Hyry R +0.11 0.00 +0.21 -0.11 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 9:54
10 Oskar Bäck C +0.08 0.00 +0.03 +0.04 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 16:35
95 Matt Duchene C +0.06 0.00 +0.18 -0.08 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 — 17:23
55 Thomas Harley D +0.04 0.00 +0.03 +0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 22:24
46 Ilya Lyubushkin D +0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 10:53
49 Justin Hryckowian C 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 16:43
5 Nils Lundkvist D 0.00 0.00 +0.03 -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:43
4 Miro Heiskanen D -0.08 0.00 +0.06 -0.19 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 23:51
15 Colin Blackwell C -0.12 0.00 0.00 -0.25 +0.15 -0.02 0.00 — 12:01
6 Lian Bichsel D -0.15 0.00 0.00 -0.17 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 15:56
14 Jamie Benn L -0.18 0.00 0.00 -0.03 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 14:24
23 Esa Lindell D -0.28 0.00 0.00 -0.36 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 19:10
73 Adam Erne L -0.35 0.00 +0.04 -0.50 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 9:19

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.