Saturday, April 4, 2026
Playoff odds, %
Change
NJD
-0.2
MTL
+0.0
How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Apr 4, 2026 6:18 PM EDT.
Highlights
Shot quality
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken,
the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
MTL 52%Deserve to win 48% NJD
MTL NJD
3.92 Expected goals 3.77
3 Goals (no shootout) 3
2.82 Expected goals, 5 on 5 2.19
62 Shot attempts 58
49 Unblocked attempts 49
29 Shots on goal 38
Game notes
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is
counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the
shots' expected goals (xG).
2nd Period
10:28
MTL
Deserve to win
Deserve to win · MTL takes the lead, 61–39%
NJD had led since 14:31 of the 1st, by as much as 65%
3rd Period
17:38
NJD
Pulled goalie
Pulled goalie · Pulled Allen, down 3–2
With 2:22 left; NJD scored at 17:45 of the 3rd (3–3)
Shot map
MTL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal → NJD shoots
Cole Caufield: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 0:34)
Dougie Hamilton: snap, 56 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 0:52)
Dougie Hamilton: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 1:09)
Ivan Demidov: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 1:26)
Cole Caufield: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 2:50)
Timo Meier: deflected, 8 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 3:19)
Nico Hischier: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 3:20)
Timo Meier: backhand, 27 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:42)
Jesper Bratt: backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 5:15)
Luke Hughes: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 6:30)
Dougie Hamilton: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:12)
Juraj Slafkovský: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 7:27)
Cole Caufield: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 7:56)
Lane Hutson: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:11)
Oliver Kapanen: tip-in, 25 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 8:19)
Oliver Kapanen: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 8:31)
Ivan Demidov: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 9:15)
Jesper Bratt: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 10:22)
Timo Meier: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 11:49)
Simon Nemec: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 12:07)
Ivan Demidov: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 12:36)
Connor Brown: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 13:12)
Jack Hughes: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.22 (P1 13:45)
Connor Brown: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 14:31)
Timo Meier: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 14:58)
Dougie Hamilton: wrist, 73 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 15:09)
Nick Suzuki: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 15:28)
Cole Caufield: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 15:41)
Luke Hughes: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 16:50)
Connor Brown: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 17:04)
Brendan Gallagher: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 18:20)
Timo Meier: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 18:53)
Kaiden Guhle: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 19:31)
Oliver Kapanen: backhand, 25 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 19:39)
Juraj Slafkovský: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 1:16)
Alex Newhook: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 2:04)
Alex Newhook: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 2:10)
Alex Newhook: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 2:12)
Timo Meier: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 2:59)
Nick Suzuki: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 3:45)
Lenni Hameenaho: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 5:22)
Simon Nemec: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 6:36)
Jake Evans: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 7:28)
Juraj Slafkovský: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 7:56)
Ivan Demidov: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 9:56)
Cole Caufield: slap, 26 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 10:28)
Luke Hughes: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 12:51)
Jesper Bratt: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 13:52)
Jack Hughes: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 14:02)
Brendan Gallagher: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:37)
Ivan Demidov: slap, 27 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 16:06)
Jesper Bratt: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 17:28)
Luke Hughes: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:05)
Jack Hughes: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 19:12)
Nico Hischier: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 0:09)
Nico Hischier: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 0:10)
Luke Hughes: wrist, 74 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 0:23)
Timo Meier: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:33)
Alex Newhook: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:46)
Brendan Gallagher: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 2:42)
Brendan Gallagher: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:43)
Brendan Gallagher: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:43)
Phillip Danault: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 2:49)
Zachary Bolduc: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 4:47)
Brendan Gallagher: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 8:02)
Phillip Danault: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 8:34)
Josh Anderson: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 9:20)
Dawson Mercer: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 9:39)
Jesper Bratt: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 10:20)
Connor Brown: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 10:26)
Connor Brown: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 10:46)
Dawson Mercer: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 10:51)
Cole Caufield: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 12:16)
Brian Halonen: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 12:57)
Nick Bjugstad: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:22)
Oliver Kapanen: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:47)
Zachary Bolduc: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 15:15)
Dawson Mercer: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 16:15)
Phillip Danault: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 16:47)
Cody Glass: backhand, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:03)
Nick Bjugstad: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 17:05)
Juraj Slafkovský: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 18:32)
Cole Caufield: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 19:35)
Lane Hutson: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 19:52)
Alex Newhook: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.07 (OT 1:00)
Nico Hischier: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (OT 1:28)
Ivan Demidov: slap, 30 ft, xG 0.06 (OT 2:16)
Jesper Bratt: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.15 (OT 2:31)
Oliver Kapanen: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.18 (OT 2:40)
Timo Meier: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.14 (OT 3:33)
Juraj Slafkovský: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.06 (OT 4:15)
Jack Hughes: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.17 (OT 4:35)
Jayden Struble: GOAL, wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 15:58)
Ivan Demidov: GOAL, snap, 14 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 8:12)
Lane Hutson: GOAL, wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 9:28)
Dawson Mercer: GOAL, wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 13:08)
Jack Hughes: GOAL, wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 17:40)
Timo Meier: GOAL, snap, 42 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 17:45)
About these numbers
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot
from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the
share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how
often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count
as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map
leaves them out.
All columns
Box score
Montréal Canadiens
Goalie
SA GA
SV SV%
xGA
GSAx
Jakub Dobes
38 3 35
.921
3.77
+0.77
New Jersey Devils
Goalie
SA GA
SV SV%
xGA
GSAx
Jake Allen
29 3 26
.897
3.92
+0.92
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
Player ratings
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
Montréal Canadiens
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
47 Jayden Struble D
+2.53
+0.75
+0.03
+1.68
0.00
0.00
+0.07
—
15:28
13 Cole Caufield R
+1.84
+1.40
+0.43
+0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
22:15
48 Lane Hutson D
+1.65
+0.75
+0.14
+0.67
0.00
0.00
+0.09
—
29:47
93 Ivan Demidov R
+1.00
+0.75
+0.40
-0.16
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
20:40
76 Zachary Bolduc R
+0.99
0.00
+0.08
+0.65
+0.30
0.00
-0.04
—
15:06
72 Arber Xhekaj D
+0.88
+0.55
0.00
+0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
10:00
11 Brendan Gallagher R
+0.79
0.00
+0.28
+0.49
0.00
0.00
+0.02
—
9:48
75 Jakub Dobes G
+0.77
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
+0.77
65:00
15 Alex Newhook C
+0.61
0.00
+0.20
+0.33
0.00
+0.03
+0.05
—
15:15
14 Nick Suzuki C
+0.56
+0.55
+0.11
-0.02
0.00
-0.09
+0.01
—
23:55
24 Phillip Danault C
+0.55
0.00
+0.17
+0.35
0.00
+0.03
0.00
—
12:11
71 Jake Evans C
+0.38
0.00
+0.11
+0.22
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
14:43
90 Joseph Veleno C
+0.30
0.00
0.00
+0.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
10:06
91 Oliver Kapanen C
+0.27
0.00
+0.25
+0.10
0.00
-0.05
-0.02
—
14:33
20 Juraj Slafkovský L
+0.24
0.00
+0.28
+0.01
0.00
-0.01
-0.04
—
22:46
8 Mike Matheson D
+0.22
0.00
0.00
+0.24
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
24:01
17 Josh Anderson R
+0.17
0.00
+0.06
+0.11
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
14:30
53 Noah Dobson D
-0.40
0.00
0.00
-0.41
0.00
0.00
+0.01
—
22:08
21 Kaiden Guhle D
-0.67
0.00
+0.01
-0.68
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
16:53
New Jersey Devils
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
28 Timo Meier R
+2.63
+1.45
+0.40
+0.78
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
20:06
13 Nico Hischier C
+1.58
+0.55
+0.13
+0.74
0.00
+0.13
+0.03
—
23:47
86 Jack Hughes C
+1.56
+1.45
+0.50
-0.33
-0.15
-0.02
+0.11
—
26:26
91 Dawson Mercer C
+1.19
+0.75
+0.15
+0.28
0.00
-0.01
+0.03
—
21:47
34 Jake Allen G
+0.92
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
+0.92
64:53
63 Jesper Bratt L
+0.76
+0.70
+0.31
-0.21
0.00
0.00
-0.04
—
20:24
8 Johnathan Kovacevic D
+0.72
0.00
0.00
+0.67
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
21:08
16 Connor Brown R
+0.55
0.00
+0.45
+0.14
0.00
0.00
-0.04
—
22:17
43 Luke Hughes D
+0.52
0.00
+0.11
+0.43
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
27:43
7 Dougie Hamilton D
+0.26
+0.55
+0.04
-0.39
0.00
0.00
+0.06
—
22:54
47 Paul Cotter L
+0.21
0.00
0.00
-0.04
+0.15
0.00
+0.10
—
6:27
48 Brian Halonen L
-0.13
0.00
+0.07
-0.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
5:56
17 Simon Nemec D
-0.30
0.00
+0.19
-0.52
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
18:23
21 Marc McLaughlin C
-0.33
0.00
0.00
-0.32
0.00
-0.01
0.00
—
4:34
71 Jonas Siegenthaler D
-0.54
+0.55
0.00
-0.99
-0.15
0.00
+0.05
—
18:55
29 Lenni Hameenaho R
-0.84
0.00
+0.07
-0.96
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
9:39
5 Brenden Dillon D
-1.18
0.00
0.00
-0.88
-0.30
0.00
0.00
—
15:15
72 Nick Bjugstad C
-1.26
0.00
+0.03
-1.13
-0.15
-0.01
0.00
—
9:16
12 Cody Glass C
-1.27
0.00
0.00
-1.28
0.00
+0.01
0.00
—
12:43
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a
player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays,
all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.