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Florida PanthersFLA 2–5 Final Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT

Sunday, April 5, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Florida PanthersFLA 101 2 31
Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT 311 5 23
Playoff odds, % Change
PIT +0.6
FLA +0.0

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Apr 5, 2026 2:27 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
11:00 PIT Elmer Soderblom (6) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.04 0–1 ▶
16:15 FLA Cole Schwindt (4) Vinnie Hinostroza (10), Gustav Forsling (25) · wrist xG 0.06 1–1 ▶
16:50 PIT Sidney Crosby (29) Egor Chinakhov (18), Bryan Rust (36) · snap xG 0.11 1–2 ▶
19:12 PIT Rickard Rakell (23)PP Sidney Crosby (42), Evgeni Malkin (40) · snap xG 0.15 1–3 ▶
2nd Period
18:08 PIT Rickard Rakell (24) Evgeni Malkin (41), Tommy Novak (25) · wrist xG 0.07 1–4 ▶
3rd Period
3:48 PIT Bryan Rust (28) Sidney Crosby (43), Egor Chinakhov (19) · backhand xG 0.22 1–5 ▶
14:15 FLA Carter Verhaeghe (24)PP Seth Jones (24) · wrist xG 0.06 2–5 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

FLA 47%Deserve to win53% PIT
FLAPIT
3.39Expected goals3.54
2Goals (no shootout)5
1.57Expected goals, 5 on 51.25
72Shot attempts44
55Unblocked attempts35
31Shots on goal23

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
3:48 FLA Goalie Goalie · Tarasov −2.2 goals saved
5 goals on 2.79 xG, 19 shots on goal

Shot map

FLA shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ PIT shoots
Noel Acciari: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 1:06) Eetu Luostarinen: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 1:46) Ben Kindel: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:24) Rickard Rakell: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 3:57) Sidney Crosby: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.59 (P1 4:00) A.J. Greer: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 4:45) A.J. Greer: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 4:46) Nolan Foote: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 7:16) Matthew Tkachuk: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:30) Evgeni Malkin: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 8:37) Jesper Boqvist: backhand, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:33) Tobias Bjornfot: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:00) Tommy Novak: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 10:40) Connor Dewar: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 12:25) Carter Verhaeghe: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 14:10) Jesper Boqvist: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:05) Carter Verhaeghe: tip-in, 26 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 17:41) Gustav Forsling: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 17:47) Eetu Luostarinen: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 19:52) Gustav Forsling: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 0:22) Sam Bennett: backhand, 32 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 1:45) Noel Acciari: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 1:54) Evgeni Malkin: slap, 31 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 2:49) Sidney Crosby: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 4:02) Bryan Rust: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 4:12) Donovan Sebrango: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 5:35) Kris Letang: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 5:48) Erik Karlsson: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 6:06) Sidney Crosby: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 6:07) Evgeni Malkin: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 6:31) Cole Schwindt: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 8:07) Cole Schwindt: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 8:09) Matthew Tkachuk: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 8:23) Mackie Samoskevich: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 10:09) Sam Bennett: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 10:13) Matthew Tkachuk: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 10:19) Carter Verhaeghe: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:35) Carter Verhaeghe: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 10:47) Bryan Rust: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 11:05) Egor Chinakhov: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 11:24) Tomas Nosek: backhand, 34 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:54) Donovan Sebrango: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:32) Nolan Foote: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 13:39) Tommy Novak: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 16:21) Mike Benning: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 16:55) Evgeni Malkin: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 18:07) Jesper Boqvist: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:36) Ben Kindel: tip-in, 88 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 19:53) Matthew Tkachuk: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 0:56) Vinnie Hinostroza: tip-in, 29 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 1:32) Jesper Boqvist: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 1:49) Dmitry Kulikov: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:10) Sam Bennett: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 6:29) Matthew Tkachuk: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 6:38) Matthew Tkachuk: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 6:47) Sam Bennett: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 7:09) Evgeni Malkin: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 9:43) Erik Karlsson: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 10:02) Dmitry Kulikov: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 10:12) Matthew Tkachuk: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 10:22) Ben Kindel: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 10:38) Tommy Novak: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 11:05) Ben Kindel: bat, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 11:06) Ben Kindel: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 11:07) Kris Letang: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 11:13) Tommy Novak: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:35) Carter Verhaeghe: backhand, 21 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:16) Gustav Forsling: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:22) Mackie Samoskevich: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 13:04) Mackie Samoskevich: tip-in, 21 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 13:12) Mackie Samoskevich: slap, 29 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 13:16) Seth Jones: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 13:58) Nolan Foote: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 14:25) Anthony Mantha: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 14:45) Egor Chinakhov: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 14:51) Noah Gregor: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 15:42) Matthew Tkachuk: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:47) Matthew Tkachuk: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 16:19) Eetu Luostarinen: bat, 10 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 16:19) Matthew Tkachuk: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 16:21) Sam Bennett: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 17:34) Sam Bennett: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 18:52) Gustav Forsling: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 19:50) Elmer Soderblom: GOAL, wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 11:00) Cole Schwindt: GOAL, wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 16:15) Sidney Crosby: GOAL, snap, 30 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 16:50) Rickard Rakell: GOAL, snap, 31 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 19:12) Rickard Rakell: GOAL, wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 18:08) Bryan Rust: GOAL, backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.22 (P3 3:48) Carter Verhaeghe: GOAL, wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 14:15)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Florida Panthers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
23 Carter Verhaeghe 101 0 90.23 1022:43
9 Sam Bennett 000 0 70.47 1021:28
19 Matthew Tkachuk 000 0 110.58 0021:09
11 Mackie Samoskevich 000 -1 40.42 4020:38
27 Eetu Luostarinen 000 -1 40.19 1116:59
18 A.J. Greer 000 -1 30.10 2015:51
70 Jesper Boqvist 000 -1 40.07 3112:45
92 Tomas Nosek 000 0 20.01 2010:19
79 Cole Schwindt 101 -2 30.35 3009:45
18 Vinnie Hinostroza 011 -2 10.07 0009:01
73 Noah Gregor 000 0 30.12 3008:09
0 Nolan Foote 000 -1 30.18 4005:37
Defense
3 Seth Jones 011 -3 40.04 0024:50
42 Gustav Forsling 011 0 60.12 0224:21
7 Dmitry Kulikov 000 0 30.17 1221:59
73 Donovan Sebrango 000 0 20.17 3014:00
20 Mike Benning 000 0 10.09 0112:58
22 Tobias Bjornfot 000 -3 20.01 0212:36
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Daniil Tarasov 23518 .783 3.54 -1.46

Pittsburgh Penguins

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
17 Bryan Rust 112 +2 30.48 0118:50
19 Connor Dewar 000 +1 20.10 0118:30
52 Noel Acciari 000 0 20.19 0318:19
67 Rickard Rakell 202 +1 40.38 1018:16
87 Sidney Crosby 123 +2 40.80 1017:34
71 Evgeni Malkin 022 0 50.49 0017:14
18 Tommy Novak 011 0 50.20 0014:29
59 Egor Chinakhov 022 +2 20.16 0013:37
39 Anthony Mantha 000 -1 20.09 0111:45
81 Ben Kindel 000 0 50.29 0211:35
25 Elmer Soderblom 101 +1 10.04 0010:18
16 Justin Brazeau 000 +1 00.00 0006:32
Defense
65 Erik Karlsson 000 0 40.14 0121:27
6 Ryan Shea 000 +2 10.00 0018:48
29 Parker Wotherspoon 000 +1 10.00 2018:27
75 Connor Clifton 000 +2 00.00 3417:31
49 Samuel Girard 000 +1 10.00 0117:17
58 Kris Letang 000 0 20.18 0116:06
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Arturs Silovs 31229 .935 3.39 +1.39

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Florida Panthers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
11 Mackie Samoskevich R +1.37 0.00 +0.27 +0.67 +0.45 0.00 -0.02 — 20:38
23 Carter Verhaeghe C +1.20 +0.75 +0.15 +0.35 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 — 22:43
20 Mike Benning D +0.77 0.00 +0.06 +0.66 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 12:58
6 Donovan Sebrango D +0.69 0.00 +0.11 +0.75 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 14:00
79 Cole Schwindt R +0.59 +0.75 +0.23 -0.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:45
19 Matthew Tkachuk L +0.57 0.00 +0.38 +0.40 -0.22 0.00 +0.02 — 21:09
9 Sam Bennett C +0.53 0.00 +0.30 +0.31 -0.08 -0.01 0.00 — 21:28
42 Gustav Forsling D +0.35 +0.55 +0.08 -0.34 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 24:21
3 Seth Jones D +0.33 +0.70 +0.03 -0.36 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 24:50
18 Noah Gregor L +0.31 0.00 +0.08 +0.09 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 8:09
24 Vinnie Hinostroza C +0.20 +0.70 +0.05 -0.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:01
92 Tomas Nosek L -0.04 0.00 +0.01 -0.08 0.00 +0.05 -0.02 — 10:19
27 Eetu Luostarinen C -0.09 0.00 +0.12 +0.01 -0.30 +0.05 +0.03 — 16:59
10 A.J. Greer L -0.13 0.00 +0.06 -0.04 -0.15 -0.01 0.00 — 15:51
70 Jesper Boqvist C -0.17 0.00 +0.05 -0.28 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 12:45
7 Dmitry Kulikov D -0.23 0.00 +0.11 -0.40 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 21:59
25 Nolan Foote L -0.33 0.00 +0.12 -0.47 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 5:37
22 Tobias Bjornfot D -0.75 0.00 +0.01 -0.86 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 12:36
40 Daniil Tarasov G -1.46 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.46 60:00

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
87 Sidney Crosby C +3.39 +2.15 +0.52 +0.86 0.00 -0.10 -0.04 — 17:34
67 Rickard Rakell R +2.29 +1.50 +0.25 +0.15 +0.45 -0.03 -0.02 — 18:16
59 Egor Chinakhov R +2.15 +1.25 +0.10 +0.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:37
17 Bryan Rust R +2.00 +1.30 +0.31 +0.81 -0.45 0.00 +0.03 — 18:50
71 Evgeni Malkin C +1.52 +1.25 +0.32 -0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:14
37 Arturs Silovs G +1.39 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.39 60:00
25 Elmer Soderblom L +0.71 +0.75 +0.03 -0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 10:18
58 Kris Letang D +0.55 0.00 +0.12 +0.38 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 16:06
18 Tommy Novak C +0.54 +0.55 +0.13 -0.14 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 14:29
65 Erik Karlsson D +0.33 0.00 +0.09 +0.19 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 21:27
28 Parker Wotherspoon D +0.22 0.00 0.00 -0.04 +0.26 0.00 0.00 — 18:27
16 Justin Brazeau R +0.14 0.00 0.00 +0.16 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 6:32
19 Connor Dewar C +0.12 0.00 +0.06 -0.23 +0.19 +0.02 +0.07 — 18:30
81 Ben Kindel C -0.02 0.00 +0.19 -0.36 0.00 +0.02 +0.13 — 11:35
5 Ryan Shea D -0.21 0.00 0.00 -0.19 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 18:48
49 Samuel Girard D -0.33 0.00 0.00 -0.21 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 17:17
39 Anthony Mantha R -0.35 0.00 +0.06 -0.44 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 11:45
55 Noel Acciari C -0.44 0.00 +0.12 -0.74 0.00 0.00 +0.17 — 18:19
75 Connor Clifton D -0.48 0.00 0.00 -0.34 -0.30 0.00 +0.16 — 17:31

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.